140, , ,000 80, ROK

140,000 PRODUKCJA 120,000 100,000 80,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 ROK

130,000 120,000 PRODUKCJA 110,000 100,000 90,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 ROK PRODUKCJA Średnie 3-okresowe Średnie 5-okresowe Średnie 7-okresowe

130,000 120,000 PRODUKCJA 110,000 100,000 90,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 ROK PRODUKCJA alpha = 0.1 alpha = 0.3

Procedura AUTOREG Zmienna zależna PRODUKCJA

Procedura AUTOREG Zwykłe oceny metodą najmniejszych kwadratów SSE 1239960563 DFE 20 MSE 61998028 Pierw. z MSE 7874 SBC 461.256045 AIC 459.073961 MAE 5754.65026 AICC 459.705539 MAPE 5.23057055 HQC 459.587994 R-kwadrat regresji 0.7143 R-kwadrat całkowite 0.7143 Statystyki Durbina-Watsona Porządek DW Pr. < DW Pr. > DW 1 2.1270 0.5246 0.4754 2 1.7063 0.2440 0.7560 3 2.1304 0.7178 0.2822 4 2.4325 0.9427 0.0573 5 2.5723 0.9870 0.0130 6 1.8230 0.7384 0.2616 7 1.6179 0.6628 0.3372 8 1.1037 0.2665 0.7335 9 1.3794 0.6563 0.3437 10 0.8034 0.1657 0.8343 NOTE: Pr<DW is the p-value for testing positive autocorrelation, and Pr>DW is the p-value for testing negative autocorrelation. Zmienna DF Ocena Oceny parametrów Błąd standardowy Wartość t Przybl. pr. > t Intercept 1 35426 10847 3.27 0.0039 ROK 1 5.1228 0.7244 7.07 <.0001

Procedura AUTOREG

40000 30000 LMODU 20000 10000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 DATA

_NAME MODE_ DATA _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA LMODU ADD JAN1997 1 5256. 341.65. 4914.35 LMODU ADD FEB1997 2 5648. -1430.64. 7078.64 LMODU ADD MAR1997 3 4811. -1677.75. 6488.75 LMODU ADD APR1997 4 5211. -1294.76. 6505.76 LMODU ADD MAY1997 5 3810. -2141.08. 5951.08 LMODU ADD JUN1997 6 5345. -1215.99. 6560.99 LMODU ADD JUL1997 7 4776 6230.67 2002.05-3456.72 2773.95 LMODU ADD AUG1997 8 4569 6301.79-1472.05-260.75 6041.05 LMODU ADD SEP1997 9 6686 6307.54-1222.76 1601.22 7908.76 LMODU ADD OCT1997 10 6946 6325.79 764.04-143.83 6181.96 LMODU ADD NOV1997 11 7047 6381.04 579.33 86.63 6467.67 LMODU ADD DEC1997 12 13601 6463.83 6767.95 369.22 6833.05 LMODU ADD JAN1998 1 7380 6535.96 341.65 502.39 7038.35 LMODU ADD FEB1998 2 5231 6623.29-1430.64 38.35 6661.64 LMODU ADD MAR1998 3 5366 6652.00-1677.75 391.75 7043.75 LMODU ADD APR1998 4 5094 6660.50-1294.76-271.74 6388.76 LMODU ADD MAY1998 5 5253 6702.21-2141.08 691.87 7394.08 LMODU ADD JUN1998 6 5889 6721.21-1215.99 383.78 7104.99 LMODU ADD JUL1998 7 5963 6625.25 2002.05-2664.30 3960.95 LMODU ADD AUG1998 8 5478 6538.58-1472.05 411.46 6950.05 LMODU ADD SEP1998 9 6466 6529.08-1222.76 1159.67 7688.76 LMODU ADD OCT1998 10 7370 6508.25 764.04 97.71 6605.96 LMODU ADD NOV1998 11 7624 6498.75 579.33 545.92 7044.67 LMODU ADD DEC1998 12 13480 6508.54 6767.95 203.51 6712.05 LMODU ADD JAN1999 1 5198 6525.83 341.65-1669.48 4856.35 LMODU ADD FEB1999 2 5333 6553.25-1430.64 210.39 6763.64 LMODU ADD MAR1999 3 5036 6563.29-1677.75 150.46 6713.75 LMODU ADD APR1999 4 4924 6565.71-1294.76-346.95 6218.76 LMODU ADD MAY1999 5 5195 6606.08-2141.08 729.99 7336.08 LMODU ADD JUN1999 6 6182 6731.67-1215.99 666.32 7397.99 LMODU ADD JUL1999 7 6085 6856.50 2002.05-2773.55 4082.95 LMODU ADD AUG1999 8 6014 6917.50-1472.05 568.55 7486.05 LMODU ADD SEP1999 9 6171 6992.79-1222.76 400.97 7393.76 LMODU ADD OCT1999 10 7723 7050.17 764.04-91.21 6958.96 LMODU ADD NOV1999 11 8240 7100.00 579.33 560.67 7660.67 LMODU ADD DEC1999 12 15878 7082.04 6767.95 2028.01 9110.05 LMODU ADD JAN2000 1 5796 7048.17 341.65-1593.81 5454.35 LMODU ADD FEB2000 2 6199 7111.13-1430.64 518.52 7629.64

_NAME MODE_ DATA _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA LMODU ADD MAR2000 3 5977 7187.96-1677.75 466.79 7654.75 LMODU ADD APR2000 4 5360 7247.54-1294.76-592.78 6654.76 LMODU ADD MAY2000 5 5955 7312.75-2141.08 783.33 8096.08 LMODU ADD JUN2000 6 4991 7331.88-1215.99-1124.89 6206.99 LMODU ADD JUL2000 7 6463 7469.92 2002.05-3008.97 4460.95 LMODU ADD AUG2000 8 7147 7691.42-1472.05 927.63 8619.05 LMODU ADD SEP2000 9 6882 7861.54-1222.76 243.22 8104.76 LMODU ADD OCT2000 10 8442 8078.29 764.04-400.33 7677.96 LMODU ADD NOV2000 11 9086 8238.46 579.33 268.21 8506.67 LMODU ADD DEC2000 12 15491 8355.96 6767.95 367.09 8723.05 LMODU ADD JAN2001 1 9496 8526.63 341.65 627.73 9154.35 LMODU ADD FEB2001 2 7815 8659.96-1430.64 585.69 9245.64 LMODU ADD MAR2001 3 8444 8717.04-1677.75 1404.71 10121.75 LMODU ADD APR2001 4 8095 8766.25-1294.76 623.51 9389.76 LMODU ADD MAY2001 5 7064 8843.29-2141.08 361.78 9205.08 LMODU ADD JUN2001 6 6702 8862.42-1215.99-944.43 7917.99 LMODU ADD JUL2001 7 8848 8783.04 2002.05-1937.09 6845.95 LMODU ADD AUG2001 8 7962 8722.42-1472.05 711.63 9434.05 LMODU ADD SEP2001 9 7437 8607.79-1222.76 51.97 8659.76 LMODU ADD OCT2001 10 9068 8490.17 764.04-186.21 8303.96 LMODU ADD NOV2001 11 10309 8430.29 579.33 1299.38 9729.67 LMODU ADD DEC2001 12 14727 8407.63 6767.95-448.58 7959.05 LMODU ADD JAN2002 1 8355 8309.04 341.65-295.69 8013.35 LMODU ADD FEB2002 2 7501 8145.25-1430.64 786.39 8931.64 LMODU ADD MAR2002 3 6007 8077.88-1677.75-393.13 7684.75 LMODU ADD APR2002 4 7709 8136.04-1294.76 867.72 9003.76 LMODU ADD MAY2002 5 6013 8174.33-2141.08-20.26 8154.08 LMODU ADD JUN2002 6 7209 8132.04-1215.99 292.95 8424.99 LMODU ADD JUL2002 7 5975 8185.08 2002.05-4212.13 3972.95 LMODU ADD AUG2002 8 6904 8322.79-1472.05 53.25 8376.05 LMODU ADD SEP2002 9 6878 8511.88-1222.76-411.12 8100.76 LMODU ADD OCT2002 10 11023 8693.08 764.04 1565.87 10258.96 LMODU ADD NOV2002 11 9273 8958.71 579.33-265.04 8693.67 LMODU ADD DEC2002 12 14748 9620.67 6767.95-1640.62 7980.05 LMODU ADD JAN2003 1 9607 11657.88 341.65-2392.52 9265.35 LMODU ADD FEB2003 2 9554 13202.50-1430.64-2217.86 10984.64 LMODU ADD MAR2003 3 8492 13237.92-1677.75-3068.17 10169.75 LMODU ADD APR2003 4 9573 13230.46-1294.76-2362.70 10867.76

_NAME MODE_ DATA _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA LMODU ADD MAY2003 5 10524 13166.54-2141.08-501.47 12665.08 LMODU ADD JUN2003 6 18585 13360.63-1215.99 6440.36 19800.99 LMODU ADD JUL2003 7 43492 13623.00 2002.05 27866.95 41489.95 LMODU ADD AUG2003 8 6458 13605.63-1472.05-5675.58 7930.05 LMODU ADD SEP2003 9 8174 13564.08-1222.76-4167.33 9396.76 LMODU ADD OCT2003 10 9548 13554.25 764.04-4770.29 8783.96 LMODU ADD NOV2003 11 9214 13358.17 579.33-4723.50 8634.67 LMODU ADD DEC2003 12 19465 12714.29 6767.95-17.24 12697.05 LMODU ADD JAN2004 1 11187 10714.25 341.65 131.10 10845.35 LMODU ADD FEB2004 2 7557 9244.04-1430.64-256.40 8987.64 LMODU ADD MAR2004 3 9492 9231.42-1677.75 1938.33 11169.75 LMODU ADD APR2004 4 8337 9187.67-1294.76 444.09 9631.76 LMODU ADD MAY2004 5 7054 9203.67-2141.08-8.59 9195.08 LMODU ADD JUN2004 6 6602 9115.00-1215.99-1297.01 7817.99 LMODU ADD JUL2004 7 7474 9042.42 2002.05-3570.47 5471.95 LMODU ADD AUG2004 8 7191 9075.25-1472.05-412.20 8663.05 LMODU ADD SEP2004 9 7138 8970.25-1222.76-609.49 8360.76 LMODU ADD OCT2004 10 9534 8889.63 764.04-119.67 8769.96 LMODU ADD NOV2004 11 9612 8923.88 579.33 108.80 9032.67 LMODU ADD DEC2004 12 16939 8938.42 6767.95 1232.63 10171.05 LMODU ADD JAN2005 1 11971 9000.08 341.65 2629.27 11629.35 LMODU ADD FEB2005 2 7561 9157.04-1430.64-165.40 8991.64 LMODU ADD MAR2005 3 6968 9356.38-1677.75-710.63 8645.75 LMODU ADD APR2005 4 8926 9478.96-1294.76 741.80 10220.76 LMODU ADD MAY2005 5 7287 9520.50-2141.08-92.42 9428.08 LMODU ADD JUN2005 6 6718 9522.08-1215.99-1588.10 7933.99 LMODU ADD JUL2005 7 8838 9431.38 2002.05-2595.42 6835.95 LMODU ADD AUG2005 8 9594 9406.96-1472.05 1659.09 11066.05 LMODU ADD SEP2005 9 9519 9555.42-1222.76 1186.34 10741.76 LMODU ADD OCT2005 10 10095 9587.21 764.04-256.25 9330.96 LMODU ADD NOV2005 11 10048 9491.75 579.33-23.08 9468.67 LMODU ADD DEC2005 12 16541 9523.13 6767.95 249.92 9773.05 LMODU ADD JAN2006 1 10192 9612.46 341.65 237.89 9850.35 LMODU ADD FEB2006 2 8754 9596.67-1430.64 587.98 10184.64 LMODU ADD MAR2006 3 9338 9495.08-1677.75 1520.67 11015.75 LMODU ADD APR2006 4 7319 9486.50-1294.76-872.74 8613.76 LMODU ADD MAY2006 5 6603 9596.46-2141.08-852.38 8744.08 LMODU ADD JUN2006 6 8155 9635.71-1215.99-264.72 9370.99

_NAME MODE_ DATA _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA LMODU ADD JUL2006 7 9545 9612.50 2002.05-2069.55 7542.95 LMODU ADD AUG2006 8 8508 9610.71-1472.05 369.34 9980.05 LMODU ADD SEP2006 9 8167 9556.58-1222.76-166.83 9389.76 LMODU ADD OCT2006 10 11241 9564.00 764.04 912.96 10476.96 LMODU ADD NOV2006 11 11541 9699.21 579.33 1262.46 10961.67 LMODU ADD DEC2006 12 15990 9796.38 6767.95-574.33 9222.05 LMODU ADD JAN2007 1 10186 9900.92 341.65-56.56 9844.35 LMODU ADD FEB2007 2 8717 10110.63-1430.64 37.02 10147.64 LMODU ADD MAR2007 3 8076 10357.38-1677.75-603.63 9753.75 LMODU ADD APR2007 4 8759 10674.58-1294.76-620.82 10053.76 LMODU ADD MAY2007 5 8408 10955.79-2141.08-406.72 10549.08 LMODU ADD JUN2007 6 8682 11090.46-1215.99-1192.47 9897.99 LMODU ADD JUL2007 7 11527 11327.08 2002.05-1802.13 9524.95 LMODU ADD AUG2007 8 11559 11606.83-1472.05 1424.21 13031.05 LMODU ADD SEP2007 9 11038 11772.75-1222.76 488.01 12260.76 LMODU ADD OCT2007 10 15983 12051.08 764.04 3167.87 15218.96 LMODU ADD NOV2007 11 13548 12312.50 579.33 656.17 12968.67 LMODU ADD DEC2007 12 17215 12440.04 6767.95-1992.99 10447.05 LMODU ADD JAN2008 1 14640 12642.04 341.65 1656.31 14298.35 LMODU ADD FEB2008 2 10977 12755.71-1430.64-348.06 12407.64 LMODU ADD MAR2008 3 9798 12796.29-1677.75-1320.54 11475.75 LMODU ADD APR2008 4 13717 12844.54-1294.76 2167.22 15011.76 LMODU ADD MAY2008 5 9724 12773.58-2141.08-908.51 11865.08 LMODU ADD JUN2008 6 10427 13238.17-1215.99-1595.18 11642.99 LMODU ADD JUL2008 7 14630. 2002.05. 12627.95 LMODU ADD AUG2008 8 11184. -1472.05. 12656.05 LMODU ADD SEP2008 9 12387. -1222.76. 13609.76 LMODU ADD OCT2008 10 15792. 764.04. 15027.96 LMODU ADD NOV2008 11 12036. 579.33. 11456.67 LMODU ADD DEC2008 12 29877. 6767.95. 23109.05

40000 Szereg skorygowany sezonowo 30000 20000 10000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 DATA

6000 4000 Składnik sezonowy 2000 0-2000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 DATA

Procedura REG Model: MODEL1 Zmienna zależna: SA Szereg skorygowany sezonowo Wczytano obserwacji 144 Użyto obserwacji 144 Źródło DF Analiza wariancji Suma kwadratów Średnia kwadratów Wartość F Pr. > F Model 1 546666662 546666662 49.87 <.0001 Błąd 142 1556724719 10962850 Razem skorygowane 143 2103391381 Pierw. z MSE 3311.01950 R-kwadrat 0.2599 Średnia zależna 9213.46528 Skor. R-kw. 0.2547 Wsp. zmienności 35.93674 Zmienna Etykieta DF Oceny parametrów Ocena parametru Błąd standardowy Wartość t Pr. > t Intercept Intercept 1 5815.20485 554.72328 10.48 <.0001 t 1 46.87256 6.63772 7.06 <.0001

30 25 20 Inf 15 10 5 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Data

_NAME MODE_ Data _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA Inf MULT JAN1994 1 1.8. 0.28695. 6.2729 Inf MULT FEB1994 2 2.9. 0.42314. 6.8535 Inf MULT MAR1994 3 5.0. 0.56127. 8.9084 Inf MULT APR1994 4 8.0. 0.72554. 11.0263 Inf MULT MAY1994 5 9.9. 0.89728. 11.0334 Inf MULT JUN1994 6 12.4. 1.02459. 12.1024 Inf MULT JUL1994 7 14.1 14.4958 0.99582 0.97677 14.1591 Inf MULT AUG1994 8 16.0 14.7333 1.02589 1.05857 15.5962 Inf MULT SEP1994 9 21.3 15.0000 1.26534 1.12223 16.8335 Inf MULT OCT1994 10 24.8 15.2292 1.44740 1.12509 17.1342 Inf MULT NOV1994 11 27.1 15.4417 1.59744 1.09863 16.9646 Inf MULT DEC1994 12 29.5 15.6000 1.74935 1.08099 16.8634 Inf MULT JAN1995 1 4.1 15.5833 0.28695 0.91689 14.2883 Inf MULT FEB1995 2 6.3 15.3875 0.42314 0.96758 14.8887 Inf MULT MAR1995 3 8.0 15.0500 0.56127 0.94707 14.2534 Inf MULT APR1995 4 10.5 14.5708 0.72554 0.99322 14.4721 Inf MULT MAY1995 5 12.5 13.9958 0.89728 0.99537 13.9310 Inf MULT JUN1995 6 13.6 13.3625 1.02459 0.99335 13.2736 Inf MULT JUL1995 7 12.5 13.0042 0.99582 0.96526 12.5524 Inf MULT AUG1995 8 12.9 12.9208 1.02589 0.97319 12.5745 Inf MULT SEP1995 9 16.3 12.8083 1.26534 1.00575 12.8820 Inf MULT OCT1995 10 18.3 12.6833 1.44740 0.99685 12.6434 Inf MULT NOV1995 11 19.8 12.5250 1.59744 0.98961 12.3948 Inf MULT DEC1995 12 21.6 12.3417 1.74935 1.00047 12.3475 Inf MULT JAN1996 1 3.4 12.2000 0.28695 0.97121 11.8488 Inf MULT FEB1996 2 5.0 12.1083 0.42314 0.97589 11.8164 Inf MULT MAR1996 3 6.6 11.9708 0.56127 0.98231 11.7590 Inf MULT APR1996 4 8.9 11.7583 0.72554 1.04324 12.2668 Inf MULT MAY1996 5 10.3 11.5292 0.89728 0.99566 11.4792 Inf MULT JUN1996 6 11.4 11.2875 1.02459 0.98573 11.1264 Inf MULT JUL1996 7 11.3 11.1375 0.99582 1.01885 11.3474 Inf MULT AUG1996 8 11.9 11.0750 1.02589 1.04738 11.5997 Inf MULT SEP1996 9 14.0 10.9625 1.26534 1.00928 11.0643 Inf MULT OCT1996 10 15.5 10.7667 1.44740 0.99463 10.7089 Inf MULT NOV1996 11 17.1 10.4875 1.59744 1.02070 10.7046 Inf MULT DEC1996 12 18.5 10.2000 1.74935 1.03680 10.5754 Inf MULT JAN1997 1 2.9 9.9292 0.28695 1.01784 10.1063 Inf MULT FEB1997 2 4.0 9.6333 0.42314 0.98129 9.4531

_NAME MODE_ Data _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA Inf MULT MAR1997 3 4.9 9.2875 0.56127 0.93999 8.7302 Inf MULT APR1997 4 5.9 8.9042 0.72554 0.91327 8.1319 Inf MULT MAY1997 5 6.6 8.5000 0.89728 0.86536 7.3556 Inf MULT JUN1997 6 8.2 8.0708 1.02459 0.99162 8.0032 Inf MULT JUL1997 7 8.0 7.8583 0.99582 1.02230 8.0335 Inf MULT AUG1997 8 8.1 7.9042 1.02589 0.99892 7.8956 Inf MULT SEP1997 9 9.5 7.9667 1.26534 0.94241 7.5079 Inf MULT OCT1997 10 10.8 8.0083 1.44740 0.93174 7.4617 Inf MULT NOV1997 11 12.1 8.0292 1.59744 0.94339 7.5746 Inf MULT DEC1997 12 13.2 7.9875 1.74935 0.94469 7.5457 Inf MULT JAN1998 1 3.1 7.8875 0.28695 1.36968 10.8033 Inf MULT FEB1998 2 4.9 7.7458 0.42314 1.49501 11.5801 Inf MULT MAR1998 3 5.5 7.5500 0.56127 1.29791 9.7992 Inf MULT APR1998 4 6.3 7.3083 0.72554 1.18813 8.6832 Inf MULT MAY1998 5 6.7 7.0083 0.89728 1.06545 7.4670 Inf MULT JUN1998 6 7.1 6.6500 1.02459 1.04204 6.9296 Inf MULT JUL1998 7 6.7 6.3917 0.99582 1.05264 6.7281 Inf MULT AUG1998 8 6.0 6.2083 1.02589 0.94205 5.8486 Inf MULT SEP1998 9 6.9 5.9917 1.26534 0.91011 5.4531 Inf MULT OCT1998 10 7.6 5.7917 1.44740 0.90661 5.2508 Inf MULT NOV1998 11 8.1 5.6042 1.59744 0.90479 5.0706 Inf MULT DEC1998 12 8.6 5.4208 1.74935 0.90689 4.9161 Inf MULT JAN1999 1 1.5 5.2333 0.28695 0.99887 5.2274 Inf MULT FEB1999 2 2.1 5.1042 0.42314 0.97232 4.9629 Inf MULT MAR1999 3 3.1 5.0542 0.56127 1.09280 5.5232 Inf MULT APR1999 4 3.9 5.0500 0.72554 1.06442 5.3753 Inf MULT MAY1999 5 4.6 5.0875 0.89728 1.00769 5.1266 Inf MULT JUN1999 6 4.8 5.1667 1.02459 0.90673 4.6848 Inf MULT JUL1999 7 4.5 5.2292 0.99582 0.86417 4.5189 Inf MULT AUG1999 8 5.1 5.2667 1.02589 0.94392 4.9713 Inf MULT SEP1999 9 6.6 5.3125 1.26534 0.98184 5.2160 Inf MULT OCT1999 10 7.8 5.3375 1.44740 1.00964 5.3890 Inf MULT NOV1999 11 8.8 5.3458 1.59744 1.03049 5.5088 Inf MULT DEC1999 12 9.8 5.3792 1.74935 1.04144 5.6021 Inf MULT JAN2000 1 1.8 5.4792 0.28695 1.14486 6.2729 Inf MULT FEB2000 2 2.7 5.5833 0.42314 1.14284 6.3809 Inf MULT MAR2000 3 3.6 5.6333 0.56127 1.13858 6.4140 Inf MULT APR2000 4 4.0 5.6500 0.72554 0.97578 5.5132

_NAME MODE_ Data _SEASON_ ORIGINAL TCC SC IC SA Inf MULT MAY2000 5 4.7 5.6250 0.89728 0.93121 5.2381 Inf MULT JUN2000 6 5.5 5.5458 1.02459 0.96793 5.3680 Inf MULT JUL2000 7 6.2 5.4500 0.99582 1.14239 6.2260 Inf MULT AUG2000 8 5.9 5.3333 1.02589 1.07833 5.7511 Inf MULT SEP2000 9 7.0 5.1667 1.26534 1.07073 5.5321 Inf MULT OCT2000 10 7.8 5.0000 1.44740 1.07780 5.3890 Inf MULT NOV2000 11 8.2 4.8667 1.59744 1.05477 5.1332 Inf MULT DEC2000 12 8.5 4.7125 1.74935 1.03108 4.8590 Inf MULT JAN2001 1 0.8 4.4750 0.28695 0.62301 2.7880 Inf MULT FEB2001 2 0.9 4.1917 0.42314 0.50742 2.1270 Inf MULT MAR2001 3 1.4 3.8750 0.56127 0.64370 2.4943 Inf MULT APR2001 4 2.2 3.5083 0.72554 0.86430 3.0322 Inf MULT MAY2001 5 3.3 3.1125 0.89728 1.18162 3.6778 Inf MULT JUN2001 6 3.2 2.7042 1.02459 1.15496 3.1232 Inf MULT JUL2001 7 2.8. 0.99582. 2.8117 Inf MULT AUG2001 8 2.5. 1.02589. 2.4369 Inf MULT SEP2001 9 2.8. 1.26534. 2.2129 Inf MULT OCT2001 10 3.2. 1.44740. 2.2109 Inf MULT NOV2001 11 3.3. 1.59744. 2.0658 Inf MULT DEC2001 12 3.6. 1.74935. 2.0579

15 Szereg skorygowany sezonowo 10 5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Data

1.75 1.50 Składnik sezonowy 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Data

Procedura REG Model: MODEL1 Zmienna zależna: SA Szereg skorygowany sezonowo Wczytano obserwacji 96 Użyto obserwacji 96 Źródło DF Analiza wariancji Suma kwadratów Średnia kwadratów Wartość F Pr. > F Model 1 1186.52934 1186.52934 321.20 <.0001 Błąd 94 347.23937 3.69404 Razem skorygowane 95 1533.76871 Pierw. z MSE 1.92199 R-kwadrat 0.7736 Średnia zależna 8.31352 Skor. R-kw. 0.7712 Wsp. zmienności 23.11883 Zmienna Etykieta DF Oceny parametrów Ocena parametru Błąd standardowy Wartość t Pr. > t Intercept Intercept 1 14.46654 0.39541 36.59 <.0001 t 1-0.12687 0.00708-17.92 <.0001