Polskie banki. Lepiej nie gonić hossy. Banki

Polskie banki Alior, Bank Handlowy, GNB, ING BSK, mbank, Millennium, Pekao, PKO BP 3 sierpnia 2016 (7:47) Banki Lepiej nie gonić hossy Akcje większości banków, które udzielały kredyty hipoteczne w walutach obcych, wzrosły od 11% do 23% po tym, jak Kancelaria Prezydenta opublikowała swój nowy, łagodniejszy projekt tzw. ustawy frankowej. Uważamy, że nowe propozycje zawarte w ustawie są łagodniejsze i mniej kosztowne dla banków niż poprzednie propozycje prezydenta. Niemniej jednak wydaje nam się, że reakcja inwestorów była przesadzona. Potencjał na wzrosty zmniejszył się znaczące, naszym zdaniem (na razie podtrzymujemy nasze ceny docelowe i EPS w okresie 2016E-18E EPS bez zmian), ale obniżamy nasze rekomendacje do Trzymaj z Kupuj dla GNB, mbank, Millennium i PKO BP. Należy tutaj zaznaczyć, że nowe propozycje dla kredytobiorców nie będą dla banków bez kosztowe (szacujemy wstępnie, że koszt całej ustawy obniży się prawdopodobnie do przedziału 25-29 mld zł), a banki będą zapewne miały zagwozdkę: czy wybrać negatywne konsekwencje podwyższenia kapitału (spadki ROE, brak dywidend i w niektórych przypadkach nawet potrzeba zastrzyku kapitału) czy koszt dobrowolnych przewalutowań. Uważamy też, że ryzyko związane z narzuceniem przewalutowania nie zniknęło jeszcze całkowicie. Prezydencki projekt ustawy (który został już przekazany do Sejmu do dalszych prac) zakłada jedynie nakaz zwrotu zawyżonych spreadów, które banki wymuszały na kredytobiorcach między 1 lipca 2000 i 26 sierpnia 2011 (kiedy to weszła w życie tzw. ustawa antyspreadowa). To jest znacznie złagodzona propozycja ustawy w porównaniu do jej poprzednich wersji, które były znacznie surowsze i skomplikowane dla banków, zwierając m.in. propozycje automatycznego przewalutowania. Co więcej, koszt zwrotu spreadów będzie dla sektora bankowego znacznie niższy. Kancelaria prezydenta szacuje, że wyniesie on 3.6-4.0 mld zł. Nadzór finansowy szacuje ten koszt, w wersji poprzedniej, na poziomie 16 mld zł. Różnica wynika z: 1) mniej surowej definicji sprawiedliwego spreadu wobec wcześniejszych propozycji (obecna wersja mówi, że spread wyższy niż 0.5% ponad kurs NBP w danym dniu musi być zwrócony), 2) kwota zwrotu jest ograniczona do równowartości 350,000 tys. zł w kredycie w dniu przyznania, 3) banki będą dodatkowo płaciły kredytobiorcom 50% odsetki karne (w oryginalnej wersji 100%). Odszkodowanie zostanie wypłacone w formie obniżenia wartości pozostałego do spłaty kredytu. Dobrowolne przewalutowanie na kredyty w zł (lub inne rozwiązania nakierowane na zmniejszenie udziału kredytów w walutach obcych w bilansach banków) będzie zagwarantowane poprzez zmiany regulacyjne. Komitet Stabilności Finansowej (KSF) przygotuje nowe regulacje/rekomendacje do października br. Będą one zawierać rekomendowane metody przewalutowania. Dla banków zostaną stworzone zachęty, które przyczyniałyby się do oferowania klientom lepszych warunków przewalutowania dzięki np. wyższym wymogom kapitałowym. Szybkie przewalutowania najbardziej zadłużonych kredytobiorców (wysoki poziom długu do dochodów) oraz najbardziej zagrożonych kredytów (wysokie poziomy LTV) będą zapewne przez nadzór preferowane. Podwyższenie wymogów kapitałowych ma być znaczące zważywszy na fakt, że mają one być głównym czynnikiem zachęcającym banki do przekonania swoich klientów, że warto ich kredyt przewalutować na zł. Oznacza to, że będą to znacznie wyższe koszty dla banków niż potencjalne przewalutowanie. Wagi ryzyka związane z kredytami w walutach obcych wzrosną zapewne do poziomu 150% z 100% obecnie, a dodatkowe zabezpieczenia na kapitale będą wdrożone w ramach regulacji Pillar 2 (SREP). Wymogi kapitałowe będą dostosowane do konkretnego banku i uzależnione od jego wielkości i innych parametrów. Wzrosty te będą stopniowe i komunikowane z wyprzedzeniem w taki sposób, aby banki mogły się odpowiednio przygotować oraz żeby czuły się zachęcone do szybkich przewalutowań. Banki będą na to miały zapewne ok. jednego roku. Postęp w procesie przewalutowań będzie monitorowany, a jeśli okaże się niewystarczający, KSF będzie mógł zwrócić się do parlamentarzystów o zadbanie o przymusowe przewalutowania. Wstępna ocena nowych propozycji wskazuje na niższy koszt dla sektora niż miało to miejsce w przypadku starszych wersji ustawy. Koszt zwrotu spreadów będzie zapewne bliższy szacunkowi prezydenta (4 mld zł wobec 16 mld zł szacowanych wcześniej przez nadzór finansowy). Jeśli chodzi o same przewalutowania to trudno określić precyzyjnie ich potencjalny koszt, ponieważ każdy bank otrzyma inne zachęty, a tym samym oferta przewalutowania dla ich klientów może się różnić. Trudno też określić poziom zainteresowania. Nadzór wcześniej szacował ten koszt na poziomie ok. 50 mld zł, więc załóżmy, że około 40%-50% tej sumy będzie rozsądnym punktem startowym. Wynika to z faktu, że kredytobiorcy będą musieli w nowej wersji ponieść wyższy koszt przewalutowania niż proponowano wcześniej (może nawet 50% w porównaniu z 10% w starej wersji). Kolejnym pozytywnym czynnikiem z perspektywy banków są mniejsze możliwości politycznej ingerencji w ustalaniu warunków przewalutowania, a to oznacza, że proces ten będzie następował w sposób bardziej kontrolowany, stopniowyi bezpieczny dla sektora bankowego. Lepiej nie gonić hossy. Zakładając, że: 1) całkowity koszt ukształtuje się w przedziale 25-29 mld zł, 2) udział straty każdego banku będzie proporcjonalny do jego udziału w rynku kredytów walutowych, 3) koszt przewalutowania będzie rozłożony na 20 lat, znormalizowany zysk EPS w 2017E będzie od 8% (PKO BP) do 69% (GNB) niższy od obecnych prognoz (przy koszcie 25 mld zł oraz od 2% do 99% przy koszcie na poziomie 29 mld zł). Znormalizowany poziom P/E wyniósłby od 12.1x (GNB) do 13.5x (PKO BP) (Rys. 1) lub 13.6x do 14.4x przy założeniu, że koszty wyniosą 29 mld zł (Rys. 2). Biorąc pod uwagę niewielką klarowność uważamy, że są to poziomy fair, ale niezachęcające. Co więcej, banki o których mowa nie będą zapewne wypłacały dywidend w średnim okresie. Nie będą też wykazywały się rosnącą akcją kredytową. A GNB i Millennium, czyli banki z największym udziałem kredytów hipotecznych w walutach obcych, mogą być nawet zmuszone do podwyższenia kapitału. Rek. (bież.) Obecna cena Cena docelowa Zmiana Alior Kupuj 52.3 73.2 40% GNB Trzymaj 0.53 0.62 17% Handlowy Trzymaj 69.3 74.0 7% ING BSK Trzymaj 134.5 127.0-6% mbank Trzymaj 347.0 358.0 3% Millennium Trzymaj 5.4 5.5 1% Pekao Sprzedaj 124.8 135.0 8% PKO BP Trzymaj 26.3 27.0 3% Źródło: szacunki DM BZ WBK; w całym raporcie używamy kursu zamknięcia akcji z 2 sierpnia 2016 P/E (x) P/Book (x) 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E Alior Bank 15.0 51.7 1.1 1.0 GNB 6.6 8.1 0.3 0.3 Bank Handlowy 16.1 14.4 1.3 1.3 ING BSK 16.5 16.2 1.5 1.5 mbank 11.5 11.5 1.1 1.0 Millennium 9.8 10.3 0.9 0.9 Pekao 15.2 15.0 1.4 1.4 PKO BP 12.4 12.2 1.0 1.0 Mediana 12.9 17.4 1.1 1.0 Średnia 13.7 13.3 1.1 1.0 Źródło: szacunki DM BZ WBK Rekomendacja Cena docelowa (zł/akcję) Obecna Poprz. Obecna Poprz. Zmiana Alior Bank Kupuj Kupuj 73 73 0% GNB Trzymaj Kupuj 0.62 0.62 0% Bank Handlowy Trzymaj Trzymaj 74 74 0% ING BSK Trzymaj Trzymaj 127 127 0% mbank Trzymaj Kupuj 358 358 0% Millennium Trzymaj Kupuj 5.5 5.5 0% Pekao Sprzedaj Sprzedaj 135 135 0% PKO BP Trzymaj Kupuj 27 27 0% Źródło: szacunki DM BZ WBK Departament Analiz Giełdowych Dariusz Górski dariusz.gorski@bzwbk.pl Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności: Zastrzeżenia prawne oraz ujawnienia zamieszczone na ostatniej stronie raportu stanowią integralną część tego dokumentu.

Fig. 1. FX mortgage exposed banks:normalised P/E (@PLN25bn total cost) FX Bank % of mkt FX mortgages Total cost conversion cost Implied loss on conversion p.a. EPS loss (post tax) (PLN) Implied normalised P/E (x) Millennium 12% 3,103 496 130 1.1 12.9 GNB 9% 2,370 379 100 0.4 12.1 mbank 14% 3,571 571 150 36.8 13.7 PKO BP 23% 5,638 902 237 2.0 13.5 Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. Fig. 2. FX mortgage exposed banks:normalised P/E (@PLN29bn total cost) FX Bank % of mkt FX mortgages Total cost conversion cost Implied loss on conversion p.a. EPS loss (post tax) (PLN) Implied normalised P/E (x) Millennium 12% 3,599 496 155 1.2 13.6 GNB 9% 2,750 379 119 0.4 14.4 mbank 14% 4,142 571 179 41.7 14.0 PKO BP 23% 6,540 902 282 2.3 13.7 Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. 2

Wyceny Fig. 3. Alior Bank: target price calculation Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 85 60% 50% WEV 62 17% 50% Blended average 73.2 Upside potential 39% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. Fig. 4. Alior Bank: target price calculation Method TP (current) TP (previous) Change Residual income 84.6 U/R n.a. WEV 61.8 U/R n.a. Blended average target price 73.2 U/R n.a. Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates Fig. 5. Alior Bank: COE calculation RFR* (%) 3.0 Risk premium (%) 5.0 Beta 1.2 COE (%) 9.1 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3-m average PLN 10-year bond yield Fig. 6. Alior Bank: warranted equity valuation 2018E ROE (%) 10.4 COE (%) 9.1 g (%) 4.0 Implied fair P/B (x) 1.3 YE18E BVPS 56 Fair value (YE18) 70 PV of fair value 54 DPS '16E 0.0 DPS '17E 0.0 DPS '18E 0.0 PV of 2016-18E DPS 0.0 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 54 Month 7 PV (current) 57 12-month price target 62 Upside potential 17% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. Fig. 7. Alior Bank: residual income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 368 131 715 Equity (YE) 6,092 6,603 7,198 ROE 7.7% 2.1% 10.4% COE 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% Excess return -1.4% -7.0% 1.3% Residual income -68-445 89 PV of residual income (2016-18E) -401 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2019-2025E) 11.5% 12.0% 30% 2,372 1,236 Perpetuity 4.0% 12.6% 72% 6,665 2,797 Total intrinsic value 3,632 # of shares (m) 129.3 Value per share 28 Last reported BVPS 46 Fair value (Jan'16) 74 Month 7 Fair value (current) 78 12-month target price 85 Upside potential 60% Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK estimates. 3

GNB: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 0.75 46% 50% WEV 0.49-3% 50% Blended average target price 0.62 Upside potential 22% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates GNB: warranted equity valuation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated GNB: COE calculation 2018E ROE (%) 5.0 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 10.7 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 3.0 Beta 1.5 Implied fair P/B (x) 0.3 COE (%) 10.7 YE18E BVPS 2.2 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3-m average PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18) 0.58 PV of fair value 0.42 DPS16E 0.00 DPS17E 0.00 DPS18E 0.00 PV of 2016-18E DPS 0.0 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 0.42 Month 6 PV (current) 0.4 12-month price target 0.49 Upside potential -3% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates GNB: residual income model In PLN millions otherwise stated 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 163 264 287 Equity (YE) 5,329 5,592 5,879 ROE 3.1% 4.8% 5.0% COE 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% Excess return -7.6% -5.9% -5.7% Residual income -399-321 -328 PV of residual income (2016-18E) -863 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2018-2024E) 8.9% 5.9% 0% -2,304-1,175 Perpetuity 3.0% 6.2% 174% -4,314-1,560 Total intrinsic value -3,597 # of shares (m) 2,650 Value per share -1.4 Last reported BVPS 2.0 Fair value (Jan'16) 0.6 Month 6 Fair value (current) 0.7 12-month target price 0.75 Upside potential 46% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. 4

Bank Handlowy: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 74 1% 33% WEV 68-6% 33% DDM 80 10% 33% Blended average target price 74 Upside potential 2% Bank Handlowy: warranted equity valuation Bank Handlowy: COE calculation 2018E ROE (%) 9.9 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 9.0 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 3.0 Beta 1.2 Implied fair P/B (x) 1.2 COE (%) 9.0 YE18E BVPS 54.4 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3-m average PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18E) 63 PV of fair value 49 DPS16E 4.7 DPS17E 4.2 DPS18E 4.7 PV of 2016-18E DPS 11.5 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 60 Month 6 PV (current) 63 12-month price target 68 Upside potential -6% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. DDM 2016E 2017E 2018E DPS* 4.7 4.2 4.7 Discount factor 0.92 0.84 0.77 NPV of 2016-18E (PLN/share) 11 Transition period (2019-25E): - div. pay-out ratio (min, max) 84% 96% - CAGR 6% - NPV (PLN/share) 24 Terminal value (NPV per share) 38 Total NPV per share 73 12-month target price 80 Upside potential 10% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. Bank Handlowy: residual income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 563 628 698 Equity (YE) 6,947 7,025 7,110 ROE 8.2% 9.0% 9.9% COE 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% Excess return -0.8% 0.0% 0.9% Residual income -54 3 66 PV of residual income (2016-18E) 3 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2019-2025E) 5.6% 12.2% 91% 1,147 637 Perpetuity 3.0% 13.5% 84% 2,154 753 Total intrinsic value 1,393 # of shares (m) 131 Value per share 10.7 Last reported BVPS 54.0 Fair value (Jan'16) 64.6 Month 6.0 Fair value (current) 67.5 12-month target price 73.6 Upside potential 1% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. 5

ING BSK: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 133 14% 33% WEV 137 17% 33% DDM 109-7% 33% Blended average target price 127 Upside potential 8% ING BSK: warranted equity valuation ING BSK: COE calculation 2018E ROE (%) 10.2 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 8.0 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 4.0 Beta 1.0 Implied fair P/B (x) 1.6 COE (%) 8.0 YE18E BVPS 93 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3-m average PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18) 145 PV of fair value (Jan'16) 115 DPS '16E 0.0 DPS '17E 4.0 DPS '18E 4.1 PV of 2016-18E DPS (Jan'16) 6.7 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 122 Month 6 Present value (current) 127 12-month price target 137 Upside potential 17% DDM In PLN/share unless otherwise stated 2016E 2017E 2018E DPS* 0.0 4.0 4.1 Discount factor 0.93 0.86 0.79 NPV of 2016-18E (PLN/share) 6.7 Transition period (2019-25E): - div. pay-out ratio (min, max) 53% 75% - CAGR 13% - NPV (PLN/share) 27.9 Terminal value (NPV per share) 62.6 Total NPV per share 101 12-month target price 109 Upside potential -7% ING BSK: residual income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 1,061 1,081 1,218 Equity (YE) 11,295 11,649 12,130 ROE 9.7% 9.4% 10.2% COE 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Excess return 1.7% 1.4% 2.2% Residual income 182 163 267 PV of residual income (2015-17E) 520 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2019-2025E) 4.3% 10.3% 65% 2,269 1,284 Perpetuity 4.0% 10.4% 77% 6,443 2,984 Total intrinsic value 4,789 # of shares (m) 130 Value per share 36.8 Last reported BVPS 82.0 Fair value (Jan'16) 118.8 Month 6 Fair value (current) 123.6 12-month target price 133.4 Upside potential 14% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. 6

mbank: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 361 16% 50% WEV 355 14% 50% Blended average target price 358 Upside potential 15% Source: DM BZ WBK mbank: warranted equity valuation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated mbank: COE calculauion 2018E ROE (%) 9.5 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 9.2 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 4.0 Beta 1.3 Implied fair P/B (x) 1.1 COE (%) 9.2 YE18E BVPS 352 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3-m average PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18) 371 PV of fair value 284 DPS16E 0.0 DPS17E 15.1 DPS18E 15.1 PV of 2016-18E DPS 26.1 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 311 Month 6 PV (current) 325 12-month price target 355 Upside potential 14% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. mbank: residual income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 1,272 1,278 1,375 Equity (YE) 13,497 14,138 14,874 ROE 9.9% 9.2% 9.5% COE 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% Excess return 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% Residual income 87 5 39 PV of residual income (2016-18E) 114 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2019-2025E) 3.5% 9.5% 76% 301 139 Perpetuity 4.0% 9.7% 95% 1,237 513 Total intrinsic value 766 # of shares (m) 42.2 Value per share 18.1 Last reported BVPS 298.1 Fair value (Jan'16) 316.3 Month 6 Fair value (current) 330.8 12-month target price 361.3 Upside potential 16% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates. 7

Millennium: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 5.5 18% 50% WEV 5.5 19% 50% Blended average target price 5.5 Upside potential 18% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates Millennium: warranted equity valuation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Millennium: COE calculation 2018E ROE (%) 9.2 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 9.8 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 4.0 Beta 1.4 Implied fair P/B (x) 0.9 COE (%) 9.8 YE18E BVPS 6.6 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3-m average PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18) 6.0 PV (Jan'16) 4.5 DPS16E 0.0 DPS17E 0.2 DPS18E 0.2 PV of 2016-18E DPS 0.3 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 4.8 Month 6 PV (current) 5.0 12-month price target 5.5 Upside potential 19% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates Millennium: residual income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 674 639 718 Equity (YE) 7,117 7,554 8,016 ROE 9.9% 8.7% 9.2% COE 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% Excess return 0.2% -1.1% -0.6% Residual income 11-78 -43 PV of residual income (2016E-18E) -87 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2019E-25E) 6.8% 9.0% 42% -512-259 Perpetuity 4.0% 8.9% 109% -1,320-519 Total intrinsic value -865 # of shares (m) 1,213 Value per share -0.7 Last reported BVPS 5.5 Fair value (Jan'16) 4.8 Month 6.0 Fair value (current) 5.0 12-month target price 5.5 Upside potential 18% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates 8

Pekao: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 132-13% 33% WEV 143-6% 33% DDM 130-15% 33% Blended average target price 135 Upside potential -11% Pekao: warranted equity valuation Pekao: COE calculation 2018E ROE (%) 10.7 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 8.5 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 4.0 Beta 1.1 Implied fair P/B (x) 1.5 COE (%) 8.5 YE17E BVPS 90 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3m avg PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18) 134 PV of fair value 105 DPS16E 8.7 DPS17E 8.2 DPS18E 8.3 PV of 2016-18E DPS 21.4 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 127 Month 6 PV (current) 132 12-month price target 143 Upside potential -6% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates DDM 2016E 2017E 2018E DPS* 8.70 8.18 8.27 Discount factor 0.92 0.85 0.78 NPV of 2016E-18E (PLN/share) 21 Transition period (2018E-25E): - div. pay-out ratio (min, max) 80% 100% - CAGR 0.2% - NPV (PLN/share) 35 Terminal value (NPV per share) 58 Total NPV per share 120 12-month target price 130 Upside potential -15% Source: DM BZ WBK, * dividend payable from preceding year's earnings Pekao: residual income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 2,156 2,178 2,504 Equity (YE) 23,182 23,213 23,547 ROE 9.3% 9.4% 10.7% COE 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% Excess return 0.8% 0.9% 2.2% Residual income 180 211 521 PV of residual income (2016E-18E) 753 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2018E-25E) 1.4% 10.5% 88% 3,505 1,982 Perpetuity 4.0% 10.7% 79% 8,879 3,934 Total intrinsic value 6,669 # of shares (mn) 262 Value per share 25.4 Last reported BVPS 91.6 Fair value (Jan'16) 117 Month 6 Fair value (current) 122 12-month target price 132 Upside potential -13% Source: DM BZ WBK, estimates 9

PKO BP: target price calculation In PLN/share unless otherwise stated Method TP Upside Weight Residual income 25 5% 50% WEV 30 26% 50% Blended average target price 27 Upside potential 16% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates PKO BP: warranted equity valuation PKO BP: COE calculation 2018E ROE (%) 9.2 RFR* (%) 3.0 COE (%) 8.8 Risk premium (%) 5.0 g (%) 4.0 Beta 1.2 Implied fair P/B (x) 1.1 COE (%) 8.8 YE18E BVPS 28 Source: Bloomberg, DM BZ WBK; * 3m avg PLN 10-year bond yield Fair value (YE18) 30 PV of fair value 23 DPS '16E 1.2 DPS '17E 1.1 DPS '18E 1.1 PV of 2016-18E DPS 2.9 PV of equity + DPS (Jan'16) 26 Month 6 PV (current) 27 12-month price target 30 Upside potential 26% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates PKO BP: Residual Income model 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit 2,652 2,684 3,099 Equity (YE) 31,549 32,907 34,664 ROE 8.6% 8.3% 9.2% COE 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% Excess return -0.2% -0.4% 0.4% Residual income -60-144 134 PV of residual income (2016E-18E) -72 Growth (CAGR) ROE (avg.) Pay-out (avg.) Total value PV Transition period (2019E-25E) 1.9% 8.1% 50% -1,770-979 Perpetuity 4.0% 7.8% 112% -6,404-2,761 Total intrinsic value -3,813 # of shares (mn) 1,250 Value per share -3.1 Last reported BVPS 25 Fair value (Jan'16) 22 Month 6 Fair value (current) 23 12-month target price 25 Upside potential 5% Source: DM BZ WBK estimates 10

Financials Alior Bank: Financial summary P&L (PLNmn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E* 2018E* Interest income 851 1,400 1,519 2,064 2,399 2,780 3,784 4,164 Interest expense -356-573 -520-834 -898-1,003-1,130-1,193 Net interest income 495 826 999 1,230 1,501 1,777 2,754 3,091 Net fee income 340 200 276 348 332 347 535 571 Net trading result 142 183 227 254 269 246 304 309 Net other operating income 17 70 38 40 64 68 39 52 Non-interest income 500 453 540 642 665 661 878 932 Total income 995 1,279 1,540 1,872 2,165 2,438 3,531 3,902 SG&A -250-283 -303-325 -461-391 -831-865 Depreciation -56-73 -75-75 -86-106 -212-217 Total opex -640-909 -847-925 -1,108-1,102-2,113-1,639 Pre-provision op. profit 355 370 692 947 1,057 1,336 1,419 2,503 Net provisioning -189-279 -405-547 -672-757 -981-1,177 Net operating profit 166 92 287 400 385 579 438 1,326 Banking tax (nominal) -111-178 -204 Effective banking tax -96-137 -163 Tax mitigation -14% -23% -20% Pre-tax profit 166 92 287 400 385 483 301 923 Income tax -14-30 -60-79 -77-116 -170-208 Net income 152 61 228 322 309 368 131 715 Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pay-out ratio (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 YoY growth (%) Net interest income 62 67 21 23 22 18 55 12 Net fee income 113-41 38 26-5 5 54 7 Total income 72 29 20 22 16 13 45 11 Total opex 14 42-7 9 20-1 92-22 Pre-provision op. profit 1,859 4 87 37 12 26 6 76 Net provisioning 34 47 45 35 23 13 30 20 Net operating profit -235-45 214 39-4 50-24 203 Pre-tax profit -235-45 214 39-4 25-38 207 Net income -246-60 272 41-4 19-65 447 Key ratios (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E* 2018E* Interest income/iea 7.5% 8.3% 7.2% 8.1% 7.5% 6.6% 6.1% 6.2% Interest expense/ibl -2.9% -3.3% -2.2% -1.6% -1.4% -1.2% -1.1% -1.1% Interest spread 10.4% 11.6% 9.5% 9.7% 8.8% 7.8% 7.2% 7.3% NIM (IEA) 4.4% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 2.7% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% Fees/total income 34.2% 15.6% 17.9% 18.6% 15.3% 14.2% 15.2% 14.6% Non-interest income/total income 16.0% 19.8% 17.2% 15.7% 15.4% 12.9% 9.7% 9.2% Non-interest income/average assets 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Total income/assets 8.0% 7.6% 6.8% 6.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% Cost/income 64.3% 71.1% 55.0% 49.4% 51.2% 45.2% 59.8% 42.0% Costs/average assets 5.2% 5.4% 3.8% 3.3% 3.1% 2.5% 3.2% 2.3% Cost of risk (bps, gross loans) 241 228 238 252 245 233 202 215 Effective tax rate -8.2% -33.2% -20.8% -19.7% -20.0% -20.0% -20.0% -20.0% EPS (PLN) 3.0 1.0 3.6 4.6 4.3 3.5 1.0 5.5 DPS (PLN)* 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ROA 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% ROE 14.6% 4.0% 11.0% 12.4% 9.5% 7.8% 1.8% 10.4% ROTE 14.6% 4.0% 12.0% 13.4% 10.4% 8.5% 2.0% 11.2% Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates, *paid in the given calendar year, * includes Core BPH. 11

Alior Bank: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLNmn, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E* 2018E* Cash/CB 449 1,030 1,067 1,158 1,750 733 1,628 1,720 Interbank loans 1,106 414 254 449 645 576 1,008 757 Customer loans 10,135 14,300 19,658 23,648 31,166 36,656 51,752 57,965 Debt securities 3,219 4,494 3,632 3,102 4,783 8,673 8,247 10,807 Fixed assets 335 373 403 407 616 615 969 951 Other assets 240 571 536 1,402 1,301 950 851 500 Total assets 15,484 21,181 25,550 30,168 40,262 48,204 65,995 71,788 Due to banks 71 629 818 1,049 1,051 650 989 1,009 Customer deposits 13,531 17,463 20,842 24,428 33,664 39,415 55,934 60,892 Debt securities 244 129 184 349 310 339 545 545 Subordinated debt 44 351 349 542 896 1,158 1,158 1,158 Other liabilities 405 638 1,172 785 568 550 766 985 Equity 1,112 1,971 2,185 3,015 3,514 6,092 6,603 7,198 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 15,484 21,181 25,550 30,168 40,262 48,204 65,995 71,788 YoY growth (%) Net loans 83.2% 41.1% 37.5% 20.3% 31.8% 17.6% 41.2% 12.0% Deposits 75.3% 29.1% 19.3% 17.2% 37.8% 17.1% 41.9% 8.9% Equity 14.0% 77.2% 10.8% 38.0% 16.6% 73.3% 8.4% 9.0% Assets 66.3% 36.8% 20.6% 18.1% 33.5% 19.7% 36.9% 8.8% NPLs/gross loans 4.4% 5.8% 6.9% 8.9% 9.2% 9.9% 11.0% 12.0% Coverage ratio 65.2% 58.3% 57.3% 53.5% 58.1% 54.9% 59.4% 54.4% Net loans/deposits 74.9% 81.9% 94.3% 96.8% 92.6% 93.0% 92.5% 95.2% Net loans/assets 65.8% 67.5% 76.9% 78.4% 77.4% 76.0% 76.6% 79.0% Deposits/assets 109.1% 103.8% 92.3% 88.3% 93.7% 88.3% 85.6% 86.5% Equity/assets 7.2% 9.3% 8.6% 10.0% 8.7% 12.6% 9.8% 9.8% Capital adequacy 13.1 15.1 12.1 12.8 12.5 18.9 15.0 14.5 BVPS (PLN) 22.1 31.0 31.2 41.7 48.4 47.1 51.1 55.7 TBVPS (PLN) 19.7 28.5 28.5 38.7 43.0 44.0 47.0 51.6 # of shares (EOP, m) 50.3 63.6 69.9 72.3 72.7 129.2 129.2 129.2 # of shares (avg., m) 50.3 51.4 64.1 70.1 72.5 105.7 129.2 129.2 Valuation multiples (x) P/E 17.4 54.7 14.8 11.5 12.4 15.1 52.1 9.5 P/Book 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 P/Tbook 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates, * includes Core BPH. 12

GNB: Financial summary P&L (PLNmn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income 3,684 4,392 3,817 3,595 3,006 2,844 2,785 2,830 Interest expense -2,312-3,043-2,519-2,164-1,811-1,512-1,381-1,343 Net interest income 1,372 1,349 1,298 1,431 1,196 1,332 1,404 1,487 Net fee income 871 621 436 437 327 215 228 244 Net trading result 912 211 122 146 195 166 55 45 Net other operating income 23 10 31-57 -56-25 10 20 Non-interest income 1,806 842 588 526 466 355 293 309 Total income 3,178 2,191 1,886 1,956 1,662 1,687 1,697 1,796 SG&A -805-770 -806-855 -1,121-815 -778-757 Depreciation -63-64 -73-68 -72-73 -77-81 Total opex -867-834 -879-923 -1,193-888 -855-838 Pre-provision op. profit 2,311 1,357 1,007 1,033 469 799 841 958 Net provisioning -1,225-975 -624-733 -430-470 -469-479 Associates 10 27 5 14 34 7 8 9 Pre-tax profit 1,095 409 388 314 73 335 380 487 Income tax -116-61 14 46-19 -81-72 -93 Banking tax (nominal) -216-208 -196 Effective banking tax -41-134 -116 Tax mitigation -81% -36% -41% Minorities 0-15 -3 0 0 0 0 0 Net income 979 333 400 360 54 214 173 279 Net income (adj.) 402 256 400 360 54 214 173 279 Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pay-out ratio (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 YoY growth (%) Net interest income 30-2 -4 10-16 11 5 6 Net fee income -11-29 -30 0-25 -34 6 7 Total income 41-31 -14 4-15 2 1 6 Total opex 19-4 5 5 29-26 -4-2 Pre-provision op. profit 52-41 -26 3-55 70 5 14 Net provisioning 16-20 -36 17-41 9 0 2 Associates -1,489 177-81 176 142-80 15 15 Pre-tax profit 134-63 -5-19 -77 360 13 28 Net income 117-66 20-10 -85 293-19 61 Net income (adj.) 8-36 56-10 -85 293-19 61 Key ratios (%) Interest income/iea 8.1 8.4 6.9 5.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 Interest expense/ibl 5.2 5.9 4.4 3.5 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 Spread 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 NIM (IEA) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 Fees/total income 27 28 23 22 20 13 13 14 Non-interest income/assets 3.7 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total income/assets 6.5 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Cost/income 27 38 47 47 72 53 50 47 Costs/average assets 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 EPS (PLN) 0.44 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.11 EPS adj. (PLN) 0.18 0.11 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.11 DPS (PLN)** 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ROA 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 ROE 27.2 8.1 8.7 7.3 1.1 4.1 3.2 4.9 ROE (adj.) 11.2 6.2 8.7 7.3 1.1 4.1 3.2 4.9 ROTE 28.2 8.3 9.1 7.6 1.1 4.2 3.3 5.1 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. 13

GNB: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLNmn, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash/CB 2,423 2,907 2,630 2,841 2,724 2,506 2,464 2,449 Loans to financial entities 3,313 2,105 1,380 2,444 2,295 1,500 1,500 1,500 Customer loans 42,420 43,833 47,952 48,726 49,225 43,824 45,355 45,090 Debt securities 4,650 7,398 9,118 11,976 13,322 14,000 14,100 14,400 Fixed assets 294 420 528 615 576 620 632 645 Other assets 1,123 1,822 2,009 2,228 2,614 1,597 1,547 1,537 Total assets 54,222 58,485 63,617 68,831 70,756 64,047 65,598 65,622 Due to banks 579 795 3,140 4,822 3,829 3,000 3,000 3,000 Customer deposits 47,217 50,185 51,486 53,847 55,726 51,256 50,395 50,100 Debt securities 1,547 1,390 1,815 2,395 3,480 3,480 3,480 3,480 Subordinated loans 401 1,234 1,824 2,103 2,133 2,403 2,499 2,599 Other liabilities 577 522 571 553 423-1,471 672 611 Equity 3,902 4,359 4,780 5,111 5,165 5,379 5,552 5,831 Minority interest 2 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities and equity 54,222 58,485 63,617 68,831 70,756 64,047 65,598 65,622 YoY growth Net loans 24.1 3.3 9.4 1.6 1.0-11.0 3.5-0.6 Deposits 27.5 6.3 2.6 4.6 3.5-8.0-1.7-0.6 Equity 18.4 11.7 9.7 6.9 1.1 4.1 3.2 5.0 Assets 26.7 7.9 8.8 8.2 2.8-9.5 2.4 0.0 Key ratios (%) NPLs/gross loans 12.3 13.6 13.6 14.1 13.2 10.4 10.1 9.7 Coverage ratio 66.9 65.4 64.5 52.1 33.1 33.1 5.5 5.8 Net loans/deposits 89.8 87.3 93.1 90.5 88.3 85.5 90.0 90.0 Net loans/assets 78.2 74.9 75.4 70.8 69.6 68.4 69.1 68.7 Deposits/assets 87.1 85.8 80.9 78.2 78.8 80.0 76.8 76.3 Equity/assets 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 8.4 8.5 8.9 Capital adequacy 10.1 10.5 12.4 13.1 12.7 14.0 13.9 14.1 BVPS (PLN) 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 TBVPS (PLN) 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 # of shares (EOP, m) 2,246 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 # of shares (avg., m) 2,246 2,417 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 Valuation multiples (x) P/E 1.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 27.3 6.9 8.6 5.3 P/Book 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 P/Tbook 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. Handlowy: Financial summary 14

P&L (PLNmn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income 1,927 2,076 1,646 1,489 1,232 1,245 1,293 1,324 Interest expense 493 588 404 325 256 247 236 227 Net interest income 1,434 1,488 1,242 1,164 977 999 1,057 1,097 Net fee income 643 599 642 619 631 600 683 709 Net trading result 333 651 656 619 441 274 267 273 Net other operating income 16-12 6 16 3 94 22 22 Non-interest income 992 1,238 1,305 1,253 1,075 968 972 1,005 Total income 2,427 2,727 2,547 2,417 2,052 1,967 2,030 2,102 SG&A -1,372-1,365-1,302-1,203-1,208-1,113-1,088-1,083 Depreciation -60-65 -63-71 -70-76 -79-82 Total opex -1,432-1,430-1,365-1,274-1,278-1,189-1,167-1,165 Pre-provision op. profit 995 1,297 1,182 1,143 773 778 863 937 Net provisioning -117-58 36 18-17 -9-2 -2 Net operating profit 878 1,239 1,218 1,161 791 769 861 936 Banking tax (nominal) -86-92 -93 Effective banking tax -75-70 -61 Tax mitigation -13% -24% -34% Pre-tax profit 920 1,239 1,219 1,161 791 694 790 874 Income tax -185-269 -245-220 -164-131 -162-176 Share in associates' profits 2 1-1 6 0 0 0 0 Net income 736 970 973 947 626 563 628 698 Dividend -361-757 -934-971 -611-550 -613-682 Pay-out ratio (%) 49 78 96 102 98 98 98 98 YoY growth (%) 736 970 973 947 626 Net interest income -4 4-17 -6-16 2 6 4 Net fee income -2-7 7-4 2-5 14 4 Total income -5 12-7 -5-15 -4 3 4 Total opex 4 0-5 -7 0-7 -2 0 Pre-provision op. profit -16 30-9 -3-32 1 11 9 Net provisioning -52-50 -162-51 -197-46 -77-11 Net operating profit -7 41-2 -5-32 -3 12 9 Pre-tax profit -2 35-2 -5-32 -12 14 11 Net income -2 32 0-3 -34-10 12 11 Key ratios (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income/iea 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 Interest expense/average interest-bearing liabilities -1.5-1.8-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5 Interest spread 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 NIM (IEA) 4.1 3.8 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 Fees/total income 26.5 22.0 25.2 25.6 30.8 30.5 33.7 33.7 Non-interest income/average assets 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 Non-interest income/total income 40.9 45.4 51.2 51.9 52.4 49.2 47.9 47.8 Total income/assets 6.1 6.4 5.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.3 Cost/income 59.0 52.4 53.6 52.7 62.3 60.4 57.5 55.4 Costs/average total assets 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 Cost of risk (bps, IEA) 82.0 37.1-22.7-11.1 10.1 5.2 1.1 0.9 Effective tax rate 20.1 21.7 20.1 19.0 20.8 18.8 20.5 20.2 EPS (PLN) 5.6 7.4 7.4 7.3 4.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 DPS (PLN)* 0.0 2.8 5.8 7.2 7.4 4.7 4.2 4.7 ROA 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 ROE 11.4 14.0 13.2 12.9 8.8 8.2 9.0 9.9 ROTE 14.2 17.4 16.3 15.9 10.9 10.2 11.1 12.1 RORWA 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.6 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. Handlowy: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLNmn, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 15

Cash/CB 980 1,357 778 1,523 2,170 1,170 1,115 1,187 Loans to financial entities 548 1,462 3,539 2,062 757 700 700 700 Customer loans 14,719 16,221 15,231 16,770 18,975 18,424 19,736 21,364 Debt securities 23,513 21,877 23,391 27,157 25,339 29,200 24,600 24,300 Fixed assets 1,750 1,790 1,802 1,755 1,726 1,680 1,759 1,760 Other assets 768 802 656 557 464 420 400 400 Total assets 42,278 43,509 45,397 49,824 49,431 51,594 48,310 49,711 Due to banks 6,011 2,356 6,378 5,123 6,964 9,000 7,650 6,503 Customer deposits 23,922 23,630 26,085 29,500 31,586 33,427 31,833 33,911 Debt securities 4,866 5,846 4,222 6,771 3,360 1,800 1,710 1,625 Subordinated loans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other liabilities 1,035 4,285 1,405 1,020 671 421 93 564 Equity 6,444 7,391 7,307 7,411 6,851 6,947 7,025 7,110 Minority interest 0 0 0 90 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 42,278 43,509 45,397 49,824 49,431 51,594 48,310 49,711 RWA 26,634 28,085 28,085 28,209 27,988 28,115 26,652 27,243 YoY growth (%) Net loans 20.0 10.2-6.1 10.1 13.1-2.9 0.0 0.0 Deposits 1.4-1.2 10.4 13.1 7.1 5.8 0.0 0.0 Equity -0.7 14.7-1.1 1.4-7.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 Assets 12.7 2.9 4.3 9.8-0.8 4.4 0.0 0.0 Key ratios (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E NPLs/gross loans 9.2 7.4 7.2 4.7 3.1 3.3 4.9 4.9 Coverage ratio 84.5 88.3 88.2 96.4 95.7 95.2 84.0 84.1 Net loans/deposits 61.5 68.6 58.4 56.8 60.1 55.1 62.0 63.0 Net loans/assets 34.8 37.3 33.6 33.7 38.4 35.7 40.9 43.0 Deposits/assets 56.6 54.3 57.5 59.2 63.9 64.8 65.9 68.2 Equity/assets 15.2 17.0 16.1 14.9 13.9 13.5 14.5 14.3 TCR 16.4 18.0 17.5 17.5 17.1 17.6 18.8 18.5 BVPS (PLN) 49.3 56.6 55.9 56.7 52.4 53.2 53.8 54.4 TBVPS (PLN) 39.4 46.0 45.1 46.1 42.0 42.8 43.6 44.4 # of shares (EOP, m) 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 # of shares (avg., m) 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7 Valuation multiples (x) P/E 12.9 9.8 9.8 10.0 15.2 16.9 15.1 13.6 P/Book 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 P/Tbook 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 Div. yield (%) 0.0 3.8 8.0 9.8 10.2 6.4 5.8 6.4 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. ING BSK: Financial summary P&L (PLNmn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income 3,386 3,832 3,615 3,725 3,629 3,870 4,117 4,361 Interest expense -1,534-1,783-1,572-1,394-1,162-1,075-1,059-1,100 Net interest income 1,852 2,049 2,043 2,330 2,467 2,795 3,058 3,261 Net fee income 1,021 1,004 1,022 1,063 1,017 1,001 1,021 1,051 16

Net trading result 23 97 205 119 273 277 117 105 Net other operating income 18 15 21 20 21 20 20 21 Non-interest income 1,062 1,117 1,248 1,202 1,311 1,297 1,158 1,178 Total income 2,913 3,165 3,290 3,533 3,778 4,092 4,217 4,439 SG&A -1,532-1,674-1,704-1,755-1,967-1,894-1,937-1,966 Depreciation -133-148 -164-175 -189-182 -192-201 Total opex -1,664-1,822-1,868-1,930-2,156-2,076-2,129-2,168 Pre-provision op. profit 1,249 1,343 1,422 1,603 1,622 2,016 2,088 2,271 Net provisioning -172-363 -267-268 -232-354 -366-395 Net operating profit 1,076 980 1,155 1,335 1,390 1,662 1,721 1,876 Share in associates' profits 41 36 38 12 0 0 0 0 Banking tax (nominal) -291-357 -375 Effective banking tax -268-296 -283 Tax mitigation -8% -17% -25% Pre-tax profit 1,118 1,016 1,193 1,347 1,390 1,394 1,425 1,593 Income tax -238-184 -231-307 -263-333 -344-375 Net income 880 832 962 1,041 1,127 1,061 1,081 1,218 Net income adj. 880 832 962 1,041 1,157 938 1,081 1,095 Dividend 0 0-572 -520-559 -527-537 -604 Pay-out ratio (%) 0 0 60 50 50 50 50 50 YoY growth (%) Net interest income 14 11 0 14 6 13 9 7 Net fee income 3-2 2 4-4 -2 2 3 Total income 9 9 4 7 7 8 3 5 Total opex 5 9 3 3 12-4 3 2 Pre-provision op. profit 14 8 6 13 1 24 4 9 Net provisioning -15 110-26 0-13 52 4 8 Net operating profit 21-9 18 16 4 20 4 9 Pre-tax profit 20-9 17 13 3 0 2 12 Net income 17-5 16 8 8-6 2 13 Key ratios (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income/iea 5.2 5.4 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 Interest expense/ibl -2.4-2.7-2.2-1.7-1.2-1.1-1.0-1.0 Interest spread 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 NIM (IEA) 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 Fees/total income 35.1 31.7 31.1 30.1 26.9 24.5 24.2 23.7 Non-interest income/total income 36.4 35.3 37.9 34.0 34.7 31.7 27.5 26.5 Total income/assets 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 Cost/income 57.1 57.6 56.8 54.6 57.1 50.7 50.5 48.8 Costs/average assets 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 Cost of risk (bps, gross loans) 50.4 92.5 58.7 49.2 36.4 48.8 46.3 46.7 Effective tax rate 21.3 18.1 19.4 22.8 18.9 23.9 24.2 23.6 EPS (PLN) 6.8 6.4 7.4 8.0 8.7 8.2 8.3 9.4 DPS (PLN)* 1.5 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.1 ROA 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 ROE 14.6 11.4 11.5 10.9 10.7 9.7 9.4 10.2 ROE adj.* 15.5 12.0 12.0 11.4 11.1 10.0 9.8 10.6 ROTE 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. 17

ING BSK: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLNmn, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash/CB 1,493 4,072 6,970 5,331 3,590 3,705 3,816 4,009 Interbank loans 1,018 1,377 1,400 1,838 1,015 900 882 882 Customer loans 42,330 48,985 52,239 61,057 71,643 79,851 85,150 90,467 Debt securities 23,382 22,370 23,968 30,082 30,406 29,800 26,500 26,500 Fixed assets 937 962 943 972 1,017 1,000 1,012 1,023 Other assets 563 501 1,231 581 346 350 368 386 Total assets 69,723 78,267 86,751 99,861 108,016 115,607 117,728 123,267 Due to banks 4,962 4,555 4,610 6,123 3,914 3,900 3,939 3,978 Customer deposits 52,932 57,858 67,548 75,659 87,819 93,943 96,762 101,648 Debt securities 4,409 6,713 4,408 7,272 5,377 4,545 4,091 3,886 Other liabilities (incl. Tier-2) 1,004 1,006 1,556 347 227 1,921 1,285 2,270 Equity 6,414 8,134 8,626 10,457 10,678 11,295 11,649 12,130 Minority interest 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 69,723 78,267 86,751 99,861 108,016 115,607 117,728 123,915 RWA 39,708 41,073 35,569 42,500 48,607 53,179 55,332 59,168 YoY growth (%) Net loans 22.7 15.7 6.6 16.9 17.3 11.5 6.6 6.2 Deposits 11.7 9.3 16.7 12.0 16.1 7.0 3.0 5.0 Equity 13.5 26.8 6.1 21.2 2.1 5.8 3.1 4.1 Assets 8.1 12.3 10.8 15.1 8.2 7.0 1.8 4.7 Key ratios (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E NPLs/gross loans 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.6 Coverage ratio 61.7 61.4 62.6 67.8 64.1 60.2 61.4 63.2 Net loans/deposits 80.0 84.7 77.3 80.7 81.6 85.0 88.0 89.0 Net loans/assets 60.7 62.6 60.2 61.1 66.3 69.1 72.3 73.4 Deposits/assets 75.9 73.9 77.9 75.8 81.3 81.3 82.2 82.5 Equity/assets 9.2 10.4 9.9 10.5 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.8 TCR 11.9 14.6 17.3 14.2 13.7 15.1 15.7 15.8 CT1 11.9 14.6 17.3 14.2 13.7 14.0 14.7 14.8 BVPS (PLN) 49.3 62.5 66.3 80.4 82.1 86.8 89.5 93.2 Tangible BVPS 46.5 59.7 63.5 77.5 78.8 83.5 86.3 90.0 # of shares (EOP, m) 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 # of shares (avg., m) 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1 Valuation multiples (x) P/E 17.3 18.3 15.8 14.6 13.5 14.4 14.1 12.5 P/Book 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 P/Tangible equity 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Div. yield (%) 1.3 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.5 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. 18

mbank: Financial summary P&L (PLNmn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income 3,891 4,523 3,950 3,956 3,661 3,864 3,962 4,024 Interest expense -1,723-2,244-1,724-1,466-1,149-1,072-1,042-990 Net interest income 2,167 2,280 2,226 2,491 2,511 2,792 2,921 3,035 Net fee income 840 787 835 902 897 884 933 982 Net trading result 375 415 448 441 625 536 355 355 Net other operating income 139 89 165 106 60 68 68 68 Non-interest income 1,354 1,291 1,448 1,449 1,582 1,488 1,356 1,405 Total income 3,521 3,571 3,674 3,939 4,093 4,280 4,276 4,440 SG&A -1,472-1,466-1,490-1,581-1,851-1,753-1,768-1,800 Depreciation -209-196 -188-190 -200-215 -220-224 Total opex -1,680-1,661-1,678-1,771-2,051-1,969-1,988-2,024 Pre-provision op. profit 1,841 1,909 1,995 2,169 2,043 2,311 2,288 2,416 Net provisioning -373-445 -478-516 -402-388 -381-389 Net operating profit 1,467 1,465 1,518 1,653 1,641 1,923 1,907 2,027 Share in associates' profits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 1,467 1,465 1,518 1,653 1,641 1,664 1,667 1,789 Income tax -323-267 -309-363 -314-385 -382-406 Banking tax (nominal) -307-325 -328 Effective banking tax -258-240 -238 Tax mitigation -16% -26% -27% Net income 1,135 1,197 1,206 1,287 1,324 1,272 1,278 1,375 Net income adjusted 1,135 1,197 1,206 1,278 1,230 1,175 1,278 1,375 Dividend* 0-421 -717 0 0-636 -639 0 Pay-out ratio (%) 0 35 59 0 0 50 50 0 YoY growth (%) Net interest income 20 5-2 12 1 11 5 4 Net fee income 13-6 6 8-1 -1 6 5 Total income 13 1 3 7 4 5 0 4 Total opex 4-1 1 6 16-4 1 2 Pre-provision op. profit 22 4 5 9-6 13-1 6 Net provisioning -41 19 7 8-22 -3-2 2 Net operating profit 68 0 4 9-1 17-1 6 Pre-tax profit 68 0 4 9-1 1 0 7 Net income 77 5 1 7 3-4 0 8 Key ratios (%) Interest income/iea 4.3 4.8 4.1 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Interest expense/ibl -2.1-2.6-1.9-1.5-1.1-1.0-1.0-0.9 Interest spread 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 NIM (IEA) 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 Non-interest income/average assets 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 Fees/total income 23.9 22.0 22.7 22.9 21.9 20.7 21.8 22.1 Non-interest income/total income 38.4 36.2 39.4 36.8 38.6 34.8 31.7 31.7 Non-interest income/assets 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 Total income/assets 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 Cost/income ratio 47.7 46.5 45.7 44.9 50.1 46.0 46.5 45.6 Cost/assets 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 Cost of risk (bps, gross loans) 56.6 63.6 68.2 69.7 50.6 47.2 45.4 45.4 Effective tax rate 22.0 18.2 20.3 22.0 19.1 23.2 22.9 22.7 EPS (PLN) 27.0 28.4 28.6 30.5 31.4 30.1 30.3 32.6 DPS (PLN)** 0.0 0.0 10.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 15.1 15.1 ROA 1.2 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.10 1.03 1.04 1.13 ROE 15.2 13.6 12.2 12.1 11.4 9.9 9.2 9.5 ROTE 16.1 14.3 12.7 12.6 11.9 10.3 9.6 9.9 RORWA 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. 19

mbank: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLN m, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash/CB 1,038 4,819 1,650 3,055 5,938 4,114 4,246 4,424 Interbank loans 4,009 3,945 3,471 3,751 1,897 950 903 812 Customer loans 67,852 67,059 68,210 74,582 78,434 80,091 81,804 83,454 Debt securities 23,535 23,947 28,454 33,740 34,644 37,100 31,300 32,100 Fixed assets 1,269 1,210 1,170 1,188 1,264 1,272 1,087 1,062 Other assets 1,173 1,256 1,327 1,670 1,347 1,150 1,139 1,127 Total assets 98,876 102,236 104,283 117,986 123,523 124,677 120,478 122,979 Due to banks 27,391 21,111 19,224 13,384 12,019 7,373 4,395 1,440 Customer deposits 54,244 57,984 61,674 72,422 81,141 82,568 85,213 88,781 Debt securities 3,599 8,369 7,862 15,164 12,220 15,569 15,176 16,553 Sub-debt 3,456 3,222 3,763 4,128 3,827 3,603 2,191 2,191 Other liabilities 2,113 1,840 1,508 1,815 2,041 2,033-671 -899 Equity 8,049 9,685 10,229 11,043 12,242 13,497 14,138 14,874 Minority interest 24 24 27 30 33 34 36 38 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 98,876 102,236 104,283 117,986 123,523 124,677 120,478 122,979 RWA 66,000 71,600 74,141 66,500 69,392 69,851 69,544 70,983 YoY growth (%) Net loans 14.3-1.2 1.7 9.3 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 Deposits 15.0 6.9 6.4 17.4 12.0 1.8 3.2 4.2 Equity 16.5 20.3 5.6 8.0 10.9 10.2 4.8 5.2 Assets 9.8 3.4 2.0 13.1 4.7 0.9-3.4 2.1 Key ratios (%) NPLs/gross loans 4.6 5.1 6.2 6.3 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 Coverage ratio 74.6 71.4 54.5 56.9 64.3 64.0 64.0 64.0 Net loans/deposits 125.1 115.7 110.6 103.0 96.7 97.0 96.0 94.0 Net loans/assets 68.6 65.6 65.4 63.2 63.5 64.2 67.9 67.9 Deposits/assets 54.9 56.7 59.1 61.4 65.7 66.2 70.7 72.2 Equity/assets 8.2 9.5 9.8 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.8 12.1 TCR 15.0 18.7 19.1 14.7 17.3 18.6 19.0 19.4 CT1 9.7 12.4 13.3 12.2 14.3 16.3 16.7 17.1 BVPS (PLN) 191.2 230.0 242.6 261.8 290.0 319.7 334.9 352.4 TBVPS (PLN) 180.8 217.3 231.8 250.8 277.7 306.7 321.3 338.2 # of shares (EOP, m) 42.1 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 # of shares (avg., m) 42.1 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.2 Valuation multiples (x) P/E 11.9 11.3 11.2 10.5 10.2 10.3 10.3 9.6 P/Book 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 P/Tangible Book 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 3.1 5.3 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.9 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. Millennium: Financial summary P&L (PLN m) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income 2,720 3,120 2,672 2,583 2,313 2,236 2,294 2,317 20

Interest expense -1,578-1,959-1,452-1,129-948 -785-740 -713 Net interest income 1,142 1,161 1,220 1,454 1,365 1,450 1,554 1,604 Net fee income 562 546 589 612 596 543 562 587 Net trading result 198 244 207 203 219 426 176 164 Net other operating income -13 2-9 -53-164 -31-34 -35 Non-interest income 747 791 786 761 652 938 703 715 Total income 1,889 1,953 2,006 2,216 2,017 2,388 2,258 2,319 SG&A -1,059-1,065-1,035-1,056-1,037-1,045-1,012-993 Depreciation -65-55 -54-55 -50-55 -58-61 Total opex -1,124-1,121-1,090-1,111-1,087-1,100-1,069-1,053 Pre-provision op. profit 765 832 917 1,104 930 1,288 1,188 1,266 Net provisioning -174-238 -234-265 -241-233 -228-228 Net operating profit 591 594 683 839 689 1,055 961 1,038 Banking tax (nominal) -180-173 -170 Effective banking tax -161-125 -107 Tax mitigation -10% -28% -37% Pre-tax profit 591 596 681 838 688 894 836 930 Income tax -125-124 -145-188 -141-220 -197-213 Net income 466 472 536 651 547 674 639 718 Adj. net income 466 472 536 651 652 483 639 718 Dividend -121 0 0-267 0 0-202 -256 Pay-out ratio (%) 26 0 0 41 0 0 32 36 YoY growth (%) Net interest income 23 2 5 19-6 6 7 3 Net fee income -1-3 8 4-3 -9 4 4 Total income 10 3 3 10-9 18-5 3 Total opex 4 0-3 2-2 1-3 -2 Pre-provision op. profit 21 9 10 20-16 39-8 7 Net provisioning -23 37-2 13-9 -3-2 0 Net operating profit 45 0 15 23-18 53-9 8 Pre-tax profit 45 1 14 23-18 30-6 11 Net income 43 1 13 21-16 23-5 12 Key ratios (%) Interest income/iea 5.7 6.2 5.0 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 Interest expense/ibl 3.7 4.3 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 Interest spread 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 NIM (IEA) 2.4 2.3 2.27 2.51 2.18 2.24 2.44 2.53 Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 Fees/total income 29.7 28.0 29.3 27.6 29.6 22.7 24.9 25.3 Non-interest income/total income 39.6 40.5 39.2 34.4 32.3 39.3 31.2 30.8 Non-interest income/average assets 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.1 Total income/assets 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.6 Cost/income 59.5 57.4 54.3 50.2 53.9 46.1 47.4 45.4 Costs/average assets 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 Cost of risk (bps, gross loans) 43.2 56.7 55.4 59.9 51.6 49.4 48.8 48.4 EPS (PLN) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 DPS (PLN)* 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 adj. EPS 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 ROA (%) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 ROE (%) 10.8 10.0 10.5 11.7 9.0 9.9 8.7 9.2 ROTE (%) 10.8 10.1 10.6 11.8 9.0 10.0 8.8 9.3 RORWA (%) 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. Millennium: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLN m, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash/CB 2,018 2,466 3,412 2,612 1,946 2,487 2,434 2,388 Interbank loans 2,660 1,392 1,520 2,385 2,349 1,500 1,500 1,500 Customer loans 41,332 40,232 41,766 44,143 46,369 44,931 45,495 45,626 21

Debt securities 3,877 7,444 9,337 10,825 14,714 15,000 14,200 13,800 Fixed assets 245 228 204 213 218 215 216 216 Other assets 706 979 778 563 639 550 550 550 Total assets 50,838 52,742 57,017 60,740 66,235 64,683 64,395 64,080 Due to banks 1,832 2,492 2,349 2,037 1,444 1,000 1,010 1,030 Customer deposits 37,428 41,434 45,305 47,591 52,810 51,645 50,550 49,593 Debt securities 5,550 2,658 2,322 3,819 3,611 3,400 3,400 3,400 Subordinated debt 663 614 623 640 640 648 0 0 Other liabilities 779 721 1,056 888 1,287 873 1,881 2,041 Equity 4,586 4,824 5,363 5,765 6,443 7,117 7,554 8,016 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 50,838 52,742 57,017 60,740 66,235 64,683 64,395 64,080 YoY growth (%) Net loans 12.5-2.7 3.8 5.7 5.0-3.1 1.3 0.3 Deposits 5.7 10.7 9.3 5.0 11.0-2.2-2.1-1.9 Equity 12.1 5.2 11.2 7.5 11.8 10.5 6.1 6.1 Assets 8.2 3.7 8.1 6.5 9.0-2.3-0.4-0.5 Key ratios (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E NPLs/gross loans 4.9 5.1 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.1 Coverage ratio 58.4 58.6 69.2 71.1 67.2 64.9 67.2 67.3 Net loans/deposits 110.4 97.1 92.2 92.8 87.8 87.0 90.0 92.0 Net loans/assets 81.3 76.3 73.3 72.7 70.0 69.5 70.7 71.2 Deposits/assets 73.6 78.6 79.5 78.4 79.7 79.8 78.5 77.4 Equity/assets 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.7 11.0 11.7 12.5 TCR 13.2 13.2 14.5 15.2 16.7 17.4 18.8 19.8 CT1 11.4 11.6 13.4 14.5 16.4 17.3 18.8 19.8 RWA (PLNmn) 32,718 34,823 36,654 35,257 37,125 36,317 36,958 37,242 BVPS (PLN) 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.2 6.6 TBVPS (PLN) 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.6 # of shares (EOP, m) 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 # of shares (avg., m) 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 Valuation multiples (x) P/E 12.1 12.0 10.6 8.7 10.4 8.4 8.9 7.9 P/Book 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 P/Tbook 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Div. yield (%) 2.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 4.5 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates. PKO BP: Financial summary P&L (PLN m) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest income 12,038 13,198 10,763 10,737 9,658 9,642 9,821 10,182 Interest expense -4,429-5,109-4,042-3,215-2,629-2,122-2,011-1,857 Net interest income 7,609 8,089 6,722 7,523 7,029 7,520 7,809 8,324 Net fee income 3,101 2,917 3,006 2,934 2,851 2,612 2,698 2,798 Net trading result 289 438 369 468 508 515 468 461 22

Net other operating income 143 178 610 223 278 585 305 335 Non-interest income 3,533 3,532 3,985 3,624 3,636 3,712 3,471 3,594 Total income 11,142 11,622 10,707 11,147 10,665 11,232 11,280 11,918 SG&A -3,891-4,141-4,043-4,498-5,218-4,759-4,624-4,623 Depreciation -520-541 -579-747 -819-773 -780-788 Total opex -4,411-4,683-4,623-5,245-6,036-5,532-5,405-5,411 Pre-provision op. profit 6,731 6,939 6,084 5,901 4,629 5,700 5,875 6,507 Net provisioning -1,930-2,325-2,038-1,899-1,476-1,527-1,603-1,662 Net operating profit 4,801 4,614 4,046 4,003 3,153 4,173 4,273 4,845 Banking tax (nominal) -813-894 -983 Effective banking tax -746-745 -789 Tax mitigation -8% -17% -20% Pre-tax profit 4,781 4,633 4,044 4,035 3,191 3,440 3,542 4,071 Income tax -976-895 -816-792 -589-788 -857-972 Net income 3,807 3,739 3,230 3,254 2,610 2,652 2,684 3,099 Net income adjusted 3,807 3,739 3,070 3,254 2,114 2,648 2,684 3,099 Dividend -1,588-2,250-938 0-1,500-1,326-1,342-930 Pay-out ratio (%) 42 60 29 0 57 50 50 30 YoY growth (%) Net interest income 17 6-17 12-7 7 4 7 Net fee income -1-6 3-2 -3-8 3 4 Total income 9 4-8 4-4 5 0 6 Total opex 4 6-1 13 15-8 -2 0 Pre-provision op. profit 13 3-12 -3-22 23 3 11 Net provisioning 3 20-12 -7-22 3 5 4 Net operating profit 18-4 -12-1 -21 32 2 13 Pre-tax profit 17-3 -13 0-21 8 3 15 Net income 18-2 -14 1-20 2 1 15 Key ratios (%) Interest income/iea 7.2 6.9 6.0 5.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 Interest expense/ibl 2.9 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 Interest spread 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 NIM (IEA) 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Risk adjusted NIM (IEA) 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Fees/total income 27.8 26.5 28.1 26.3 26.7 23.3 23.9 23.5 Non-interest income/total income 31.7 31.9 37.2 32.5 34.1 33.0 30.8 30.2 Non-interest income/average assets 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Total income/assets 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 Cost/income 39.6 39.9 43.2 47.1 56.6 49.3 47.9 45.4 Costs/average assets 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 Cost of risk (bps, gross loans) 136.5 156.1 133.0 110.5 76.8 76.3 77.1 76.9 Effective tax rate 20.4 19.3 20.2 19.6 18.5 22.9 24.2 23.9 EPS (PLN) 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 EPS adj. (PLN) 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.5 DPS (PLN)* 2.0 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 ROA 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 ROE 17.2 15.8 13.0 12.4 9.0 8.6 8.3 9.2 ROTE 17.4 16.0 13.1 12.7 9.4 8.9 8.7 9.5 RORWA 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 Source: Company data, DM BZ WBK estimates, *paid in the given calendar year. PKO BP: Financial summary Balance sheet (PLN m, YE) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash/CB 9,142 10,289 7,246 11,738 13,744 16,178 16,883 17,491 Interbank loans 2,396 3,392 1,893 2,487 4,553 2,300 2,346 2,416 Customer loans 141,634 143,876 149,623 179,497 190,414 192,831 203,308 210,625 Debt securities 28,172 25,112 29,758 39,927 48,804 44,500 39,500 41,260 Fixed assets 4,898 5,150 5,491 6,271 6,053 6,220 6,346 6,376 Other assets 4,505 5,660 5,219 8,780 3,372 3,396 3,344 3,293 Total assets 190,748 193,480 199,231 248,701 266,940 265,425 271,728 281,462 23