POLAND RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

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1 POLAND RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 Accelerating success.

2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Research & Consultancy The Research & Consultancy department at Colliers International undertakes research and advisory services for Clients in the area of the Polish real estate market in particular; office, retail, industrial and hotel sectors. Our knowledge is supported by years of experience and highlydeveloped analytical methods, which support our Clients in their decision-making processes, identifying opportunities and threats and possible scenarios resulting from changing market conditions. Services provided by the Research & Consultancy department include economic analysis and market studies of the real estate market with respect to future market trends, feasibility studies, competition analyses, investment strategies, location analyses, etc. Our database includes the most current information on the real estate market in Poland, and our close cooperation with Colliers International s agency departments allows for a better understanding of the individual needs of our Clients. Dział Badań Rynku i Doradztwa Colliers International zajmuje się badaniami i szeroko pojętym doradztwem dla Klientów w zakresie rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych w Polsce, w szczególności: biurowych, handlowych, przemysłowych i hotelowych. Nasza wiedza poparta jest wieloletnim doświadczeniem i wypracowanymi metodami analitycznymi, którymi wspieramy naszych Klientów w procesach decyzyjnych, określając szanse i zagrożenia oraz możliwe scenariusze wynikające ze zmieniających się warunków rynkowych. Usługi działu obejmują analizy ekonomiczne i badania rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych z uwzględnieniem przyszłych trendów rynkowych; analizy opłacalności; analizy konkurencji; strategie inwestycyjne; analizy lokalizacji, itp. Nasza baza danych obejmuje najbardziej aktualne informacje na temat rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych w Polsce, a ścisła współpraca z działami agencyjnymi firmy pozwala na lepsze zrozumienie indywidualnych potrzeb naszych Klientów.

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary 6 Economic overview 7 Hotel market 8 Investment market 10 Land market 12 Industrial market 14 Office market 16 Retail market 18 Poland legal overview 20 Key metric definitions 22 Zarys ogólny 25 Gospodarka 26 Rynek hotelowy 27 Rynek inwestycyjny 30 Rynek gruntów inwestycyjnych 32 Rynek magazynowy 34 Rynek biurowy 36 Rynek handlowy 38 Przegląd przepisów prawa polskiego 40 Podstawowe definicje 42

4 POLAND > POLAND RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT ANNUAL 2012

5 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND FOREWORD Dear Clients and Friends, It is my pleasure to present our latest publication summarizing the trends observed in the Polish commercial real estate market during 2012 as well as our forecast for turned out to be a very good year for commercial real estate in Poland. There were many price benchmarks and spectacular transactions in the office and retail sectors including the sale of Warsaw Financial Center, CH Manufaktura, DH Renoma, International Business Center and Platinium Park. There were also several logistics and hotel transactions including the sale of the Intercontinental Hotel. The total supply of office, industrial and retail space increased, although not significantly in every market. Tenants activity remained high and in some regional markets we observed a record volume of transactions. The total volume of investment transactions in Poland amounted to approximately 2.7 billion EUR which was the largest figure since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. We anticipate that there will not be an increase in investment transaction volumes in 2013 but that international and local investors will continue to show interest. As regards leasing, 2013 will remain a good year both in terms of the new supply as well as tenants' activity which should remain at similar levels to As a leading advisor in a global market we were involved in successful negotiations for many prestigious clients in a great number of key deals. We recorded an impressive result in the Industrial and Logistics Department, where our specialists leased a total of 550,000 m² giving us the dominant position among our competitors and a market share of 56%. Our CEE Investment Services Department made a remarkable achievement acting as an agent in the sale transaction of Warsaw Financial Center and DH Renoma in Wrocław. Colliers International also succeeded in winning the tender for the management of Warsaw Financial Center and Platinium Business Park. As we want to continue to maintain high standards of business and ethics, another four our employees became members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the world s leading organisation for setting industry standards. Our professionalism and expertise have been recognized by our clients and acknowledged by the industry. Colliers International has won Eurobuild Awards 2012 for Office Agency Team of the Year, Warehouse Agency Team of the Year, Retail Agency Team of the Year as well as CIJ Award 2012 for Agency of the Year and 5* award for Best Property Consultancy in Poland - International Property Awards We were also awarded the prize for Office Agency of the Year 2011, Industrial Agency of the Year 2011 and Property Management Company of the Year 2011 during CEE Quality Awards Gala has been for Colliers International in Poland a year of further development of its business. We have opened new departments, consistently promoted strategy of our brand, and fully committed to provide Service Excellence. We are looking forward to working with you in 2013! Yours sincerely, Monika Rajska Wolińska Managing Partner As part of our company strategy we aim to deliver high standards and offer a wide scope of integrated services. In order to address our clients needs and meet the market demands we have opened new branches in Poznań and Szczecin as well as launched a new business line - Facility Management. 5 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

6 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive summary RECENT TRENDS Economy: Relative to majority of European countries, Poland is considered to be in good economic condition. However, tight financial markets in the Euro zone have affected the Polish market and contributed to slower economic growth in GDP growth amounted to 2.25% over the year, the unemployment rate stood at 12.9% and inflation sank to 3.85%. Hotels: 2012 was a good year for hotel operators in Poland. Much of the positive trading results were due to the UEFA Euro 2012 Championships. Also the construction of infrastructure investments in roads, stadia, railway, and airports, contributed to the positive results in hotel trading in most of Poland. Investment: Poland maintained its position as the the leading CEE market in terms of investment volume, liquidity and availability of debt financing for core product. Land: 2012 turned out to be an attractive and optimistic year for the land market which is demonstrated by the total volume of concluded deals. This doesn t mean a return to the growth trend that was witnessed before It shows however a sign of systematic stabilization in this area of economy, felt in particular by strong and capital-healthy developers and investment funds. MARKET INDICATORS 2012* 2013* GDP GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT WAGES INFLATION INVESTMENT VOLUMES OFFICE RENTS INDUSTRIAL RENTS RETAIL RENTS YIELDS * COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS YEAR Industrial: At the end of 2012, the total supply of warehouse space in Poland reached 7.27 mln m². The transaction volume reached the level of 1.65 mln m². The vacancy rate fell in comparison to the previous year and amounted to 9.2%. Offices: At the end of Q the office stock reached 5.8 mln m 2, 67% of which was represented by Warsaw market. Leasing activity increased by 10% in comparison to the same period of Pre-let agreements constsituted a 34% of transaction volumes. The vacancy rate stood at 9%. Retail: At the end of 2012, total modern retail space in Poland reached 9.17 mln m². In ,600 m² was delivered to the market, which is approx. 22% less than in the previous year. Vacancy rates in major Polish retail markets were lower than 5%. MARKET PROGNOSIS Economy: Although the economy is expected to weaken during the first quarter of 2013, a gradual improvement over the year is expected. The driving force will be economic progress in the Euro zone, which directly impacts the growth of exports incomes and consumption. GDP is unlikely to exceed 2%, while the unemployment rate will rise marginally to 13.6%. Inflation is anticipated to fall to around 3.5%. Hotels: There is no evidence, that 2013 will be strong for the hotel operators. It will be back to curtailing costs and yielding for occupancy. One bright aspect to years is that it will be considerably cheaper to construct hotels in Poland. Investment: Poland will maintain its position as the dominant market in the CEE. Also Investors confidence and market activity is to be maintained, subject to the EU macroeconomic outlook. Prime yields for core properties are to remain firm. Land: there is a chance that at the end of 2013 we will exceed the value of the last year s transactions. However we should bear in mind that, most of the transactions on the land market will take place in Warsaw. Industrial: Continued interest in investing in regions: Silesia, Wrocław, Warsaw, Poznań, Central Poland will be observed in The market will be dominated by pre-lets and BTS types of agreements. Lowering vacancy rate will be seen in the whole Poland and sustained price per sqm of warehouse and slight raise of price in regions with vacancy below 5%. Offices: 2013 will witness an increase in the total stock of 630,000 m 2, which will result in growing vacancy rates in majority of office markets. Leasing activity is expected to remain at level similar to Due to high new supply rental levels may demonstrate a slight downward trend. Retail: Nearly 800,000 m² of retail space is currently under construction, the majority of which should be completed in It is estimated that new supply will reach 600,000 m². Prime rental levels should be relatively stable in most markets. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

7 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic overview GENERAL DATA Population Poland 38,542, % Top 3 Cities 3,194, % Warsaw (Capital) 1,714, % Kraków 759, % Łódź 720, %, based on Central Statistical Office Exports Imports Germany 25.3% Germany 21.3% UK 6.7% Russia 14.1% France 5.9% China 9.07% based on Central Statistical Office GDP, INFLATION & UNEMPLOYMENT 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% GDP CPI Unemployment rate, based on National Bank INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2005=100, SA) Poland Germany EU27, based on Eurostat NATIONAL FINANCING SUMMARY Due to effective government policy and firm macroeconomic fundamentals Poland has achieved satisfying economic results, placing it in a strong position relative to other European countries. However, tight financial markets and weakening economic sentiment in the Euro zone have negatively impacted the Polish market. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Polish GDP amounted to 2.25% in In comparison with 2011, when the economy grew at around 4.3%, the scale of the economic slowdown is apparent. Nevertheless, quarter by quarter, other indicators provide evidence of improving economic performance. The Polish balance of trade reached PLN 30 mld in 2012, which is an improvement in comparison to The export rate increased by 8%. Imports increased by 4%. One primary cause of this improvement in trade was the weaker zloty, which boosted the profitability of foreign investing. According to Central Statistical Office (GUS), Polish entrepreneurs decided to diversify their trade partners. While exports to Sweden and Italy decreased, exports to countries such as: Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Hong Kong and India increased. Poland continues to attract foreign investment given its significant workforce resources (the share of people in working age in relation to the whole population amounts to 68%), located in economic growth centres spread across the country. This is helping to drive growth in economic and foreign direct investment, which in turn is helping to drive the growth of real estate growth markets, especially in the larger regional cities. PROGNOSIS According to economist s forecasts, economic growth will reach 2% in It is anticipated that at the beginning of 2013 Poland will be on the edge of recession and will be one of few countries in Europe, in which the tempo of GDP growth will be worse in comparison to the previous year. The lower rate of GDP is the consequence of the decline in domestic demand, caused by deterioration of the labour market. The Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR) predicts an increase of the unemployment rate to 13.6% and poor consumer moods. According to BZ WBK, after the economic downturn during the first quarter in 2013, however, a gradual improvement of the situation is expected. The driving force will be an improving situation in the Euro zone, which directly affects the growth of exports, incomes and domestic consumption. A significant barrier of economic growth in 2013 in Poland will be low dynamics of domestic as well as foreign investment. According to predictions of IBnGR, this investment will grow by only 2% in the year ahead. The foreign investment forecast is down in light of greater perceived risks considering the uncertainty of the European market and variability of exchange rates. Experts indicate that in the long-term there is a possibility of appreciation of the zloty (in 2012 the euro average exchange rate accounted to PLN 4,2 and in 2013 it is predicted to be PLN 4). 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% Government Deficit (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (% of GDP), based on OECD 7 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

8 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND HOTEL MARKET Hotel market OCCUPANCY AND ADR IN MAJOR POLISH CITIES CITY* *2 5-star hotels OCCUPANCY Warsaw 69% 82 Kraków 63% 62 Gdańsk 64% 63 Wrocław 66% 59 Poznań 49% 69 Łódź 55% 62 SELECTED HOTELS OPENINGS IN 2012 HOTEL NAME CITY ADR (EUR) Express by Holiday Inn *** Warsaw 124 NO. OF ROOMS Ibis *** / Ibis-Budget ** Kraków 135 / 167 Ibis Syles *** Gdynia 86 Holiday Inn **** Łódź 127 Hilton Garden Inn **** Rzeszów 101 TOURIST ARRIVALS (mln) GENERAL OVERVIEW 2012 was a good year for hotel operators in Poland. Much of positive trading results were due to the UEFA Euro 2012 Championships. We estimate this event produced over 175,000 room nights for the host cities. HOTEL SECTOR IN MAJOR CITIES IN POLAND WARSAW Warsaw registered the highest ever ADR s during the UEFA Euro 2012 game play days. As an example, on June 8th (Poland vs. Greece), 5-star hotels increased their RevPars to EUR 200 and experienced over 87% occupancies. The next two games played at the National Stadium produced over 98% occupancies, with historic ADR s and RevPars. Some MICE business was cancelled during the June and July months in the hotels, but these months are typically slower for the MICE sector. Warsaw, registered high occupancies in the 5 star segment hotels with ADR s at EUR 113 the highest ADR in the past 10 years - and a very favourable occupancy of 74.6%. The strong demand for room nights in the business and small conference segments were noticed throughout the year. This, combined with the EURO 2012 Championships, the 5 star hotels performed at an average occupancy of 74.6% and ADR s of circa EUR 113. The 3 and 4 star hotels also enjoyed a good trading year, occupancies were reported at the level of 69.5% and ADR s of EUR 82.5 were achieved. KRAKÓW The city was chosen as the Euro 2012 British football home base for the championships. This factor, as well as a relatively long summer season helped Kraków perform positively versus The branded hotel products fared well, the occupancy in that segment was circa 68% at an ADR of EUR star hotels fared well at occupancies of circa 74% with a yearend ADR of EUR 94. TRICITY (GDAŃSK, GDYNIA AND SOPOT) Tricity achieved the highest ADR across all the Polish cities during the Euro 2012 tournament, with ADR reaching EUR 225. Gdańsk realized 64% occupancy through all hotel categories, with an average daily rate of EUR 63. The 5 star branded hotels finished the year at 69% occupancy and an ADR of EUR 87. Sopot city, we estimate that the 5 star hotel segment performed at the level of 61% in occupancy at an average achieved rate of EUR 105. POZNAŃ, based on Institute of Tourism During the Euro 2012 games, Poznań RevPAR growth started on a high note during the kick-off match in Poznań, with RevPAR increasing to EUR 179, RevPAR growth was led by ADR growth and occupancy. However, during the subsequent tournament nights, RevPAR growth remained lower as occupancy reached 91.6% (+14.3%) on 14 June when Italy faced Croatia, and during the last match played in Poznań on 18 June. During the Italy versus Ireland game, occupancy reached 97.4% (+57.7%); ADR increased to EUR COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

9 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND HOTEL MARKET HOTELS BY CATEGORY IN MAJOR POLISH CITIES 19% 8% 8% 16% The city of Poznań 2012 showed some improvement for a few hotels there. The Sheraton, the IBB Andersia, the IBIS and the Campanile are the city s best performers. The city in all categories managed to do 49% in occupancy and achieved an ADR of EUR 69. The best performing hotel had a ca. 66% occupancy, at a EUR 91 ADR. SZCZECIN The city performed with slight decline over Occupancies finished at 59%, with an overall ADR of EUR % Hotel ***** Hotel **** Hotel *** Hotel ** Hotel *, based on Hotel Registered in Poland FORMALLY RATED HOTELS AS OF END 2012 CATEGORY WARSAW KRAKÓW POZNAŃ Hotel ***** Hotel **** Hotel *** Hotel ** Hotel * Total: CATEGORY WROCŁAW GDAŃSK ŁÓDŹ SZCZECIN Hotel ***** Hotel **** Hotel *** Hotel ** Hotel * Total: , based on Hotel Registered in Poland SELECTED PLANNED HOTELS OPENINGS IN 2013 ŁÓDŹ Regional and local conferences held in the city were smaller, with less overnight paying guests. Andel s Hotel in the Manufaktura shopping centre continues to be the leader in the market. The best performing 4-star hotel managed to perform at a 57% occupancy and EUR 75 ADR. The city did 55% in occupancy across all branded hotels, and an achieved rate of EUR 62. WROCŁAW Wrocław also enjoyed a considerable uptick during the Euro 2012 championships. In Wrocław, occupancy was higher than 92 percent during the three matches, and hoteliers benefited from the strong RevPAR growth on both 8 June and 16 June. Interestingly, during the mid-week game between the Czech Republic and Greece on 12 June, ADR growth only increased moderately. This low uptick can be explained by the proximity of Wrocław from the Czech border - a little more than an hour away - which saw many fans coming on a day trip from the neighboring country. The branded hotels leading in occupancy at levels - 64% and an achieved ADR of EUR 63 was achieved across all categories. The 5-star hotels managed to deliver circa EUR 86 in ADR and a 64% occupancy rate. OTHER POLISH CITIES Katowice city wide occupancy was 51.5% with an ADR of EUR 61, the market leader is the Angelo hotel which performed above the city average achieved results. Other notable hotel investments include PGB Dom in Świnoujście and Golden Tulip condo hotel in Międzyzdroje, which opened in April and July respectively. In Rzeszów, the Hilton Garden Inn, with 104 rooms, was opened in September of PROGNOSIS Aside from Warsaw and the COP 19 World Climate Conference, there is no evidence, that 2013 will be strong for hotel operators. It will be back to curtailing costs and yielding for occupancy. HOTEL NAME DoubleTree by Hilton Conference Centre ***** CITY Warsaw 367 NO. OF ROOMS We will see a significant amount of privately owned and operated hotels to be placed on sale, we also envision some of the existing branded hotels in major cities changing ownership. Renaissance by Marriott ***** Warsaw 250 Hampton by Hilton *** Warsaw 116 SoundGarden ** / *** Warsaw 206 Puro *** Kraków 128 DoubleTree by Hilton **** Łódź 197 One bright aspect to next year and 2014, is that it will be considerably cheaper to construct hotels in Poland due to the building and construction industry contraction. We continue to support our last year s recommendations, seeing optimistic horizons for globally branded 1-, 2-, 3-star products in most regions, towns and cities. Thanks to the UEFA Euro 2012, we can observe increasing availability of efficient modes of communication, such as road, rail and air network, which are significant factors of hotel industry growth. It allows us to be optimistic about the future. 9 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

10 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND INVESTMENT MARKET Investment market Key Investment Figures Investment Turnover EUR 2.7 bln Prime Office Yields 6.25% Prime Retail Yields 6.00% Prime Industrial Yields 7.75% SUMMARY Total transaction volume of approximately EUR 2.7 billion approached pre-crisis levels of Large single transaction volumes such as Manufaktura or Warsaw Financial Center underline the confidence vested in the Polish market by the international investment community. Poland maintained its position as the the leading CEE market in terms of investment volume, liquidity and availability of debt financing for core product. YIELDS PRIME (NET INITIAL) YIELDS 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Office Retail Industrial Prime office yields for Warsaw CBD are in the range of ca % for prime CBD Core prime assets and ca. 6.75% for CBD Fringe. Core yields in Warsaw s Mokotów district (second largest office sub-district in the city and one of the most active submarkets in terms of real estate investment over the last months) have been subject to an upward movement from sub-7% levels in Q to ca % in H due to market saturation and softening leasing environment. Notwithstanding the above, this district recorded two significant transactions in 2012, i.e. the acqiusition of Platinum Business Park by Allianz and Marynarska Business Park by Heitman. Prime retail yields are in the range of sub-6%- 6.5% in Warsaw and sub-6% (selected trophy assets )- 8.5% in secondary cities. Prime logistics yields are in the sub-8 region (selected locations only), where the pricing is largely driven by the weighted average unexpired lease term. Properties with a shorter residual lease term would be expected to trade with a ca bps discount. VOLUMES Total investment volume of EUR 2.7 bln reached 2007 levels and exceded last year s performance, mostly due to the impressive fourth quarter, which accumulated approximately EUR 1.6 bln in closed transctions. INVESTMENT VOLUME (EUR M) 5,000 VOLUMES BY SECTOR Predominantly due to the scale of the Złote Tarasy, Manufaktura and Renoma transactions, the retail sector volume accounted for 45% of the market share, followed by the office asset class at 34% and industrial at 17% - the latter recorded a sigificant growth in volume in comparison to the previous 2 years. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 DEALS SPECIFICS AND STORIES The market recorded in excess of 40 institutional transactions with an average ticket of ca. EUR 65 mln and 8 transactions exceeding the EUR 100 mln mark. Most notable transactions included the acquisition of Złote Tarasy by AXA Real Estate and CBRE Property Fund Central Europe LP for a reported EUR 475 million, the acquisition of Manufaktura by Union Investment for a reported EUR 390 million as well as the Warsaw Financial Center for ca. EUR 210 mln by a joint venture between Allianz Real Estate and Tristan Capital Partners. We note that the transaction cycle has lengthened and now on average amounts to approximately 6-9 months from commencement of marketing to closing of the deal, depending on the transaction structure. 10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

11 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND INVESTMENT MARKET INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SECTOR (EUR M) 4% Activity in secondary cities in 2012 (39% of total investment volume EUR 1.07 bln) has been predominantly driven by retail and logistics transactions. Office sales outside of Warsaw have been limited to a minimum, partly due to the limited availability of investment grade product but also due to the fact that Warsaw is the main market generating tenant interest. 17% 34% Office PROGNOSIS Retail Warehouse Hotel Any further movement in pricing is expected to depend largely on the impact of the sovereign debt crisis and additional capital requirements of the main senior lenders in the market. 45% Prime yields fore core properties will remain firm. Investor confidence and market activity is to be maintained, subject to the EU macroeconomic outlook. Poland will maintain its position as the dominant market in the CEE. 11 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

12 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND LAND MARKET Land market TRENDS 2013 SUPPLY DEMAND PRICES TRENDS 2013 SUPPLY DEMAND PRICES OFFICE RETAIL GENERAL OVERVIEW As expected, 2012 turned out to be an attractive and optimistic year for the land market which is best proven by the total volume of concluded deals. This doesn t mean a return to the growth trend that we witnessed before It showever a sign of systematic stabilization in this area of economy, feltin particular by strong and capital healthy developers and investment funds. Investors most willingly were buying land for office and residential development. Overall funds divided their investments by 85% for office and residential, 10% retail and 5% for industrial investment sites. Warsaw accounted for 80-85% of all land purchased for residential or office developments. Despite the progressive stabilization on the land market in 2012, there were also some negative trends, which were as a result of financial problems that lead some developers and investment funds to sell their land or to offer for sale the investment areas taken-over by banks from their customers. It is also worth noting that, according to our forecasts, some business entities on the market were seeking possibilities of temporary or permanent cooperation with their competitors. TRENDS 2013 SUPPLY DEMAND PRICES RESIDENTIAL TRENDS In 2012, we could observe a change in the strategy of the companies participating in the investment processes on the land market and looking for new investment possibilities. We noticed an increase in their interest mainly for the office development land. Residential developers, in particular, but also some dealing in the retail real estate market, began an intensive search of land suitable for construction of office buildings. This trend was particularly evident in major Polish cities such as Warsaw, Wrocław and Kraków. A similar situation, although in a slightly smaller scale, applies to the land suitable for retail development, located in cities with more than 30 thousand inhabitants. This land is of interest to the entities previously investing in the housing market. TRANSACTIONS PLANNED TO BE CLOSED IN 2013 CITY INVESTMENT POTENTIAL (m 2 ) PURPOSE Warsaw 65,000 Office Warsaw 45,000 Residential Wrocław 10,000 Office Kraków 10,000 Office This phenomenon is the result of the entry into force of the so called Developer act, but also limited access to investment finance, banks' lending policies and good indicators and forecasts for the office market in Poland. Among the factors increasing interest in investing in the land assigned for construction of offices one should also mention signals from companies specializing in this segment, according to which in the near future, a demand for land suitable for office development should be observed in cities such as Łódź and Poznań. In case of Łódź, among factors accelerating its development two should be enumerated: opening in 2012 of a highway connecting the city with the Warsaw and the announced reduction of travel time between these two cities up to 35 minutes due to the construction of a new high-speed rail link. 12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

13 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND LAND MARKET PRICES AND TRANSACTIONS PRICES LAND TYPE Office Office Mix-use Residential LOCATION Grzybowska, Warsaw Koszykowa, Warsaw Modlińska, Warsaw Powstańców Śląskich, Warsaw SIZE (ha) PRICE (PLN mln) 0.9 confidential In 2012, the value of land transactions for office, retail, residential and industrial development, including acquisition of companies holding such assets, reached PLN 1.5 billion (this is up on 2011 s land investment transaction volumes which totalled PLN billion). One of the main reasons for the volume of transactions in 2012 was a reduction, in the whole Poland, of the prices of all sectors of the land market. It is a continuation of the trend observed in In comparison to transaction prices in 2011, transaction prices in Polish cities are falling down. Overall prices decreased by 7% in Katowice and 7% in the suburbs of Warsaw. Residential Jaśminowa, Warsaw Office land grew cheaper in particular in Katowice by 12%, in Tricity by 10% and in Wrocław by 11%. PRICES FOR THE OFFICE DEVELOPMENT SITES (EUR/m² of GLA) CITY/REGION MIN MAX MID-POINT Warsaw - city centre Warsaw - suburbs* Kraków Łódź Poznań Katowice Tricity Wrocław PROGNOSIS 2013 years will be characterized by dynamics of transactions on office and retail land markets, primarily in cities such as Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław, and secondly in Łódź and Poznań. We expect that new sales of land for housing development will take place mainly in Warsaw and Kraków. In other local markets, such as the Tricity, Poznań and Szczecin, residential land sales occur, transactions will be made primarily by local developers. From our recent consultations with developers and investment funds regarding their planned expenditures on real estate properties in 2013, we draw a conclucion that there is a chance that at the end of 2013 we will exceed the value of the last year s transactions. However, we should bear in mind that most of the transactions on the land market will take place in Warsaw. LAND DEPARTMENT SELECTED ONGOING PROJECTS IN 2013 SELLER S REPRESENTATION PORTFOLIO PRICES FOR THE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SITES (EUR/m² of PUM) CITY/REGION MIN MAX MID-POINT Warsaw - city centre Warsaw - suburbs* Kraków Łódź Poznań Katowice Tricity Wrocław * Mokotów, Ursynów CLIENT PROJECT FUNCTION PLOT SIZE (ha) Aurantia Sp. z o.o. Piaseczno Residential 1.16 Longbridge Sp. z o.o. Land portfolio Residential ca Bacoli Properties Sp. z o.o. Piotrkowska, Łódź Mix-use 0.57 Bumar Sp. z o.o. Land portfolio Residential and office ca Instalexport S.A. Grodzisk Mazowiecki Retail 8.01 Central Plaza Sp. z o.o. Grzybowska, Warsaw Office 0.22 Metsa Tissue/Konstans Konstancin-Jeziorna Mix-use IGD Silesia Sp. z o.o. Bukowińska, Warsaw Office 0.6 Ancona Sp. z o.o. Land portfolio Mix-use ca. 25 Private person Konopnickiej, Kraków Office - CEE Centrum Sp. z o.o. Warsaw Airport Business Park Mix-use Pepsi Cola General Bottlers sp. z o.o. Chrzanowskiego, Warsaw Sucholeska, Poznań Mix-use COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

14 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND INDUSTRIAL MARKET Industrial market TRENDS 2013 SUPPLY DEMAND RENTS VACANCY DEVELOPERS MARKET SHARE BY EXISTING SUPPLY GENERAL OVERVIEW The year 2012 was a good period for the Polish industrial market. Throughout the year over 430,000 m 2 of modern warehouse space was delivered to the market, which represented almost 10% growth in comparison to The largest amount of new projects was delivered in Wrocław. Currently the total supply of warehouse space in Poland amounts to more than 7.27 million m 2. In terms of transaction volume, 2012 turned out to be similar to Demand throughout the year was fairly steady. During the four quarters almost 1.7 million m 2 of warehouse space was leased, the majority of which was located in Warsaw and Central Poland. The most popular among the signed lease agreements were new deals, which constituted 56% of tenants activity. In comparison to Q the vacancy rate in Poland dropped from 11.4% at the end of 2011 to 9.2% at the end of December A decrease in available space was observed in most markets. Over the year, rents remained relatively stable. Upward trend was observed only in the regions where the vacancy rate was low. 32% 26% SUPPLY 3% 2% 4% 4% 8% 21% Warsaw at the end of 2012 the supply of modern warehouse space in three Warsaw zones amounted to 2.59 million m 2. There is currently approximately 43,000 m 2 of warehouse space under construction, most of which is located in Warsaw zone II. Central Poland at the end of 2012 total resources of warehouse space in Central Poland increased to over 1 million m 2. During the whole year about 50,000 m 2 were delivered to the market. Prologis SEGRO MLP Group Goodman Panattoni CA IMMO PointPark Properties Others Poznań in terms of supply, 2012 did not bring any significant changes in the Poznań warehouse market and at the end of the year, the total stock of modern warehouse space amounted to nearly 895,000 m 2. Currently almost 20,000 m 2 are under construction. Upper Silesia right after Warsaw, it is the second largest warehouse market in Poland. The current supply is estimated at over 1.37 million m 2. Throughout the year about 38,000 m 2 were delivered to the market within 3 projects. Kraków in terms of existing supply, Kraków is still one of the smallest industrial markets in Poland. Total warehouse space amounts to slightly more than 136,000 m 2. TOTAL SUPPLY BY REGIONS 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Wrocław the current supply of modern warehouse space amounts to over 717,000 m 2. In 2012 almost 58,000 m 2 were completed and in 2013 another 67,000 m 2 of space are planned to be delivered to the market. Gdańsk at the end of Q warehouse recources increased to 170,000 m 2. Throughout the year the supply increased by almost 35,000 m 2. There is currently 14,000 m 2 of modern warehouse space under construction. Toruń in comparison to 2011 the total stock of warehouse space in Toruń did not change. At the end of 2012 there was almost 100,000 m 2 of modern warehouse space located in the city. Szczecin in terms of existing modern warehouse space, Szczecin is the smallest industrial market in Poland. Its resources have remained unchanged for several years and amount to nearly 42,000 m 2. Currently there is approximately 6,900 m 2 under construction within the North-West Logistic Park. DEMAND Warsaw in terms of transaction volume three Warsaw zones have dominated the market. During 2012 almost 570,000 m 2 of space was leased, 38.5% of which was located in Warsaw zone II. Most of the lease agreements were signed in the fourth quarter of Among the agreements, new contracts dominated the market and constituted 57.5% of tenats activity. Central Poland leased space in 2012 reached the level of 290,000 m 2, representing about 30% growth in comparison to the previous year. The majority of space was rented in the third quarter (almost 52% of the total transaction volume). Renegotiations dominated the market and constituted almost 69% of all signed deals. 14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

15 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND INDUSTRIAL MARKET SELECTED LEASE TRANSACTIONS TENANT AREA (m 2 ) BUILDING Leroy Merlin 56,000 Panattoni Park Stryków DSV 36,500 Panattoni Park Teresin DHL 33,800 Prologis Park Dąbrowa Lear 32,300 Panattoni Legnickie Pole FM Logistic 32,000 Pilkington Automotive 31,000 Logwin 30,700 VACANCY RATE 60% 50% 40% Europolis Park Poland Central Panattoni BTS Tarnobrzeg Diamond Business Park Piaseczno Poznań the year 2012 turned out to be another record in terms of leased warehouse space. The transaction volume reached the level of almost 175,000 m 2. Renegotiations and new agreements dominated, which represented 63% and 33.7% respectively. Upper Silesia space leased in 2012 reached the level of 250,000 m 2, which represents a significant drop in comparison to the year 2011, when approximately 355,000 m 2 of space was leased. Among the contracts, new agreements dominated and constituted more than 50% of all signed deals. Kraków in terms of transaction volume, the year 2012 was not very impressive. During the whole year almost 18,900 m 2 of space was leased, which represents significant drop compared to the year 2011 with over 54,000 m 2 of leased space. Wrocław the volume of transaction in comparison to 2011 remained at the similar level of more than 200,000 m 2. Most contracts were signed in the first and third quarter of Nearly 63% of the contracts were new deals. 25% of transaction volume were BTS agreements. Gdańsk from year to year steady growth of interest in the region among tenants is observed. The transaction volume increased by 18% compared to 2011 and was close to 67,000 m 2. New agreements continued to dominate and constituted almost 63% of total demand. Toruń it is the only region in Poland where, similarly to the situation in the previous year, no lease transactions of modern warehouse space were signed. Szczecin in 2012 there was nearly double increase of transaction volume reported, compared to There were 4 lease agreements signed for a total area of over 23,000 m 2. 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q VACANCY At the end of 2012 vacancy rate in Poland amounted to 9.2%, which represented 670,791 m 2 of space and is a significant drop compared to 2011 (11.4%). Warsaw the vacancy rate in 2012 showed a decreasing tendency and stood at 11.7% at the end of the year, with 16% at the end of Regional markets in relation to the end of 2011, the vacancy rate declined in Wrocław, Upper Silesia, Gdańsk and in Szczecin (where the most significant drop from over 50% to nearly 20% was recorded). The lowest rate was recorded in Gdańsk, Poznań and Upper Silesia and the highest invariably in Szczecin. EFFECTIVE RENTAL LEVEL (EUR/m²) REGION MIN. (EUR/m²) MAX. (EUR/m²) Warsaw Zone I Warsaw Zone II Warsaw Zone III Central Poland Poznań Upper Silesia Kraków Wrocław Gdańsk Toruń Szczecin RENTAL RATES Rental rates remained rather stable throughout the year, with a slight upward trend in the regions, where demand was the highest and vacancy rates were the lowest. PROGNOSIS It is estimated that new supply in 2013 will reach a slightly lower level than in At the end of 2012 approximately 250,000 m 2 of modern warehouse space was under construction. It is worth mentioning that about 88% of space in active construction has already been leased. Therefore we can expect that the vacancy rate will be gradually reduced, which may cause slight increase of rents in selected markets. A further decrease in the vacancy rate is expected. However, the number of speculatively built projects will not increase. The demand should remain relatively stable, both in Warsaw and in most regional markets. Although it does not exclude a small drop in the second half of the year will still be dominated BTS and pre-let agreements, the majority of which will be located in the west part of Poland, in the vicinity of highways. 15 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

16 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND OFFICE MARKET Office market TRENDS 2013 KEY OFFICE FIGURES CITY SUPPLY DEMAND RENTS VACANCY 28.1% SUPPLY (m 2 ) (%) Warsaw 3,859, % Kraków 485, % Wrocław 385, % Tricity 283, % TAKE-UP STRUCTURE IN WARSAW 3.2% 3.2% 65.5% New deals Renegotiations and Renewals Expansions Owner-occupied space VACANCY Poznań 242, % Łódź 211, % Katowice 201, % Lublin 69, % Szczecin 61, % TAKE-UP IN WARSAW (in thous. m 2 ) 250 GENERAL OVERVIEW At the end of 2012 the total office stock amounted to 5.8 mln m 2. New supply delivered to the market reached 0.5 mln m 2. Tenants activity reported in 2012 exceeded 960,000 m 2, 40% of which was registered in the regional cities. Pre-let agreements accouted for 34% of total transaction volumes. At the end of the fourth quarter the overall vacancy rate stood at the level of 9%. The highest indictor was registered in Szczecin (19.8%), while the lowest in Lublin (4.5%) and Kraków (4.6%). At present over 1 mln m 2 of modern office space is under construction. Developers activity focuses on Warsaw, where nearly 60% of new supply will be delivered. In case of regional cities, the most active markets are Wrocław, Trójmiasto and Kraków. Rental rates remained stable. SUPPLY Warsaw - the new supply delivered in 2012 amounted to 268,000 m 2. The total resources of modern office space increased to 3.86 mln. Over 70% of newly completed office space was delivered outside the city centre. The highest growth in supply was noted in the Upper-South (US) and the South-East (SE) zones, where such schemes as Wilanów Office Park A (20,400 m 2, SE), phase II of Mokotów Nova (15,000 m 2, US) and Iris (13,500 m 2, US) were completed. When it comes to central zones the highest level of activity was observed in the City Centre-Fringe as two office projects Green Corner (24,500 m 2 ) and Senator (21,000 m 2 ) were delivered. Regional cities thanks to completion of 245,000 m 2 of office space, the total supply in the eight regional cities reached the level of 1.94 m 2. Wrocław (70,000 m 2 ), Kraków (51,300 m 2 ) and Poznań (39,000 m 2 ) recorded the largest increases in terms of the amount of delivered space. A significant growth was also registered in Szczecin, where in comparison with the fourth quarter 2011 the total office resources rose by 43%. The biggest investments completed in 2012 were phase I of Green Horizon (16,000 m 2, Łódź), Aquarius Business House I (14,200 m 2, Wrocław), Andersia Business Center (11,600 m 2, Poznań) and two buildings within Enterprise Park (15,160 m 2, Kraków). DEMAND Warsaw demand for office space surpassed 600,000 m 2, which represented a 6% growth in a yoy analysis. Over 70% of tenants activity was recorded in the non-central zones, among which Mokotów was the most popular location. The average deal size in the city centre amounted to 885 m 2, whereas outside the city center it reached the level of 1,150 m 2. The majority of registered demand constituted new contracts and renegotiations/renewals. In comparison to 2011 the share of pre-let transactions in the total volumes increased by 12 percentage points and reached the level of 34%. Prelets were the biggest agreements signed during the discussed period: T-Mobile (27,000 m 2, T-Mobile Office Park), Asseco (20,400 m 2, Wilanów Office Park), Frontex (14,500 m 2, Warsaw Spire) and ING (12,100 m 2, Plac Unii) COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

17 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND OFFICE MARKET TAKE-UP LEVELS IN MAJOR REGIONAL MARKETS 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, SELECTED LEASE TRANSACTIONS IN 2012 TENANT AREA (m 2 ) BUILDING Regional cities in 2012 tenants activity in regional markets reached the level of 354,000 m 2, which translated into a growth of 18.5% in comparison to The share of pre-let transactions increased to 35% (against 24% in 2011). In case of some markets (Wrocław, Trójmiasto), pre-lets comprised over 50% of demand. The highest take-up level was registered in Kraków (107,000 m 2 ). Very good results were also noted in Wrocław and Trójmiasto, where 90,100 m 2 and 62,400 m 2 were rented respectively. The biggest transactions signed in 2012 were BPH in Euro Office Park (18,800 m 2, Trójmiasto), Nokia Siemens Networks in Green Towers (14,400 m 2, Wrocław) and Delphi Poland in Enterprise Park (8,400 m 2, Kraków). VACANCY Warsaw the vacancy rate continued the upward tendency and reached 8.8% at the end of December The vacancy in the city centre amounted to 8.82%, whereas in the non-central locations it stood at 8.78%. Regional cities the lowest vacancy rates were registered in Kraków (4.6%) and in Lublin (4.5%). Wrocław, Poznań and Szczecin, due to significant new supply, recorded increases in the vacancy rates, which amounted to 9.2%, 15.1% and 19.8% respectively. RENTS Delphi Poland Gaz System Tieto Pre-lease 8,400 Renegotiation & expansion 6,360 Expansion 3,800 Enterprise Park Kraków Cristal Park Warsaw Aquarius Business House Wrocław Warsaw the rental rates remained stable throughtout the year. The average base rents in the central locations amounted to EUR /m 2 /month. The office space in the schemes outside the city centre was offered at EUR /m 2 /month on average. Regional cities average rents recorded no significant changes and varied from EUR /m 2 /month to EUR /m 2 /month. Łódź and Katowice offered the most attractive leasing conditions. Euro RSCG Renegotiation 3,350 Antares Warsaw PROGNOSIS Roche DSV LG Merck Renegotiation 3,220 Pre-lease 3,000 New deal 2,800 Pre-let 2,400 Malta Office Park Poznań Ambassador Warsaw Mokotów Nova Warsaw Oxygen Park Warsaw In 2013 total resources of office space in Poland will increase by approximately 630,000 m 2. In 2013 the Warsaw market will recorded a growth of 320,000 m 2. New investments will be compeleted mainly in the zones outside the city center (Mokotów, Włochy, Wola). Among regional markets the biggest growth in supply will be observed in Wrocław, Tricity and Szczecin. Demand for office space is expected to remain at level similar to Due to growing new supply, regional markets may register stronger tenants activity. AVERAGE ASKING RENTS CITY Warsaw: city centre Warsaw: outside city centre MIN. (EUR/m 2 ) MAX. (EUR/m 2 ) Kraków The vacancy rate in Warsaw will continue the upward tendency, mainly due to increasing availability of space in the non-central locations. Similar to Warsaw, a rise in vacancy will be reported in majority of regional markets. Kraków will be the only exception as the vacancy rate in the city is expected to decrease. Rents will demonstrate a downward trend, especially in case of markets with increasing vacancy rates. Wrocław Tricity Poznań Katowice Łódź COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

18 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND RETAIL MARKET Retail market TRENDS 2013 SUPPLY DEMAND RENTS VACANCY EVOLUTION OF RETAIL STOCK IN POLAND m² mln m² 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Annual Supply MAIN RETAIL SCHEMES COMPLETED IN 2012 CITY PROJECT DEVELOPER Rzeszów Kielce Gorzów Wielkopolski Wrocław Galeria Rzeszów Korona Kielce Nova Park Sky Tower Star Europa Holding Church Land Development Futureal, Caelum Development LC Corp Sky Tower Total Supply SIZE (m² GLA) 42,200 34,400 32,400 25,000 Grudziądz Alfa Centrum JWK Invest 22,000 Kędzierzyn -Koźle Warsaw Szczecin Świdnica Odrzańskie Ogrody Auchan Łomianki (Phase I) Outlet Park Szczecin Galeria Świdnicka PA Nova 22,000 Immochan 18,000 Echo Investment 16,500 Rank Progress 15,500 OVERVIEW In 2012, developers delivered 485,600 m 2 of modern retail space to the market, representing a 22% decrease compared to the previous year. The new supply was dominated by smaller retail developments with a leasable area not exceeding 35,000 m 2. The largest retail scheme supplied in 2012 was Galeria Rzeszów (42,000 m 2 of leasable space), which was completed in November More than 30% of the new supply was located in the eight largest Polish agglomerations, while almost 60% was delivered in small and medium-sized cities (less than 200,000 inhabitants). New developers of outlet centres have appeared on the Polish retail market. The first outlet centre was delivered in Szczecin (Outlet Park Szczecin) by Echo Investment, while in Rzgów (near Łódź) Ptak Outlet was completed by Centrum Targowe Ptak SA. At the end of the year, the total supply of modern retail space stood at 9.17 million m 2. In 2012, new international retail chains entered the Polish market, e.g. the American brands Victoria s Secret, Bath&Body Works and American Eagle Outfitters as well as Scandinavian COS (Collection of Style) owned by H&M Group. Pop-up shops, temporary shops that open in a given area for only a specified time, are starting to appear in shopping centres. This type of store allows retailers to identify the market and is generally a solution chosen by new brands and young designers, such as Pop-Up Shop Bohoboco and Loft37.pl and Pop-Up Store Blessus located in Stary Browar or the Łukasz Jemioł boutique in Manufaktura. The vacancy level in the largest Polish agglomerations did not exceed 5%. The lowest space availability was recorded in Warsaw and Szczecin. RETAIL SECTOR IN MAJOR CITIES IN POLAND Warsaw with more than 1.35 mln m² of modern retail space is the biggest retail market in Poland. Specialised SCs constitutes 25% of total stock (almost 278,000 m²). In 2012 one shopping centre was delivered to Warsaw market, namely the first phase of Auchan Łomianki (18,000 m²). Currently there is 59,000 m² under construction in three new retail schemes (Galeria Miejska Plac Unii, Galeria Podkowa and Factory Annopol outlet centre) and two extensions (Galeria Mokotów and the 2nd phase of Auchan Łomianki). The vacancy rate is very low, at the level of 1.6%. Retail market in Warsaw records the highest rents in Poland. Prime rental value for units of approx. 100 m² located in the best shopping centres and leased by fashion tenants amounts to more than EUR 90/m². Kraków retail market offers 490,000 m² located in 13 shopping centres. One retail complex represents specialised SC Futura Park with Factory outlet. In terms of retail pipeline one scheme is under construction Galeria Bronowice (60,000 m²) developed by Immochan. Vacancy rate recorded in shopping centres in Kraków is 4.5%, which is the highest level among major Polish agglomerations, however there are significant differences between individual shopping centres. Poznań at the end of 2012 total retail stock amounted to 520,000 m², nearly 15% of which are specialised SC. Currently two traditional shopping centres are under construction located at the railway station Poznań City Center (58,000 m²) and small mix-use scheme Galeria MM (5,000 m² of retail space). Retail market in Poznań is relatively balanced with vacancy rate at the level of 2.3%. Prime rent amounts to approx. EUR 48/m², however some decrease of rental levels may be expected due to relatively high pipeline. 18 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

19 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND RETAIL MARKET NEW RETAIL SUPPLY BY THE CITIES SIZE 59% 31% 10% major agglomerations regional cities medium-sized & small cities SELECTED LEASE TRANSACTIONS IN 2012 TENANT AREA (m²) LOCATION Loopy's World 4,000 American Eagle Outfitters ENTRIES OF NEW BRANDS IN 2012 BRAND Bath&Body Works MAIN RETAIL SCHEMES PLANNED TO BE DELIVERED IN 2013 CITY PROJECT DEVELOPER SIZE (m² GLA) Gliwice Europa Centralna Helical Poland 67,000 Kraków Galeria Bronowice Immochan 60,000 Poznań Poznań City TriGranit Center 58,000 Katowice Galeria Katowicka Neinver 50,500 Gdynia Wzgórze Mayland Real (extension) Estate 45,500 Warsaw Factory Annopol Neinver 19,700 Warsaw CATEGORY ORIGIN FIRST LOCATION Health & Beauty US Kari Shoes RUS American Eagle Outfitters Park Handlowy Bielany 739 Arkadia KIK 430 Galeria Pruchnicka COS 268 Stary Browar Asics 243 Factory Warszawa Ursus Bath&Body Works 166 Złote Tarasy Złote Tarasy, Warsaw Galeria Słoneczna, Radom Fashion US Arkadia, Warsaw COS Fashion S Mysia 3, Warsaw Silesia City LC Waikiki Fashion TR Center, Katowice Victoria's Health & Złote Tarasy, US Secret Beauty Warsaw Fressnapf / Other D E.Leclerc, Warsaw Maxi Zoo Galeria Liebrecht & Miejska Plac wood, BBI 15,500 Unii Development NFI Wrocław with retail space density ratio at the level of approx. 720 m²/ 1,000 inhabitants is the most saturated retail market among major Polish agglomerations. Total stock amounts to 560,000 m². Nearly 90,000 m² is located in specialised SC. One shopping centre was delivered to the market in 2012 Sky Tower (25,000 m²). Retail market in Wrocław should be relatively stable in 2013, as no retail scheme is under construction. Tricity is the third biggest retail market in Poland. Traditional SCs offer more than 470,000 m², while specialised SCs 154,000 m². In 2012 nearly 50,000 m² was completed in two new projects (Galeria Szperk and Centrum Kowale) and in three extensions of existing shopping centres. Currently, 45,500 m² is under construction (extension of Wzgórze SC). Upper Silesia with 945,000 m² is the second largest retail market in Poland. Relatively low vacancy level (2%) and density ratio (approx. 430 m²/ 1,000 inhabitants) indicate high potential of this region, which was discovered by developers. Upper Silesia also has the highest pipeline (124,500 m²) and two large scale shopping centres are planned for delivery in 2013 Europa Centralna and Galeria Katowicka. Łódź total retail stock amounts to 505,600 m² and is dominated by traditional SC (493,000 m²). In 2012 first specialised shopping centre appeared on the market Ptak Outlet (first phase of 12,600 m²). Vacancy rate amounts to 1.9%. Szczecin is the smallest regional market in Poland. Traditional SCs offer 237,600 m². In 2012 the first outlet centre in Szczecin was completed Outlet Park Szczecin (16,500 m²) developed by Echo Investment. Retail market in Szczecin has the lowest vacancy ratio among major Polish agglomerations it amounts to 1.1%. PROGNOSIS Currently, there is almost 800,000 m 2 of retail space under construction. Due to developers high level of activity, the increase in supply in 2013 will be higher than in the previous year, and is estimated to reach approximately 600,000 m 2. Developers are once again interested in major Polish cities, where they are looking for gaps in terms of location, complementary offer or diversity of the retail format that they could fill in. Unlike in the previous year, many shopping centres planned for 2013 are large-scale projects with GLA exceeding 50,000 m 2. On the other hand, growing interest is being recorded in small shopping centres with a local range offering convenient shopping. The biggest openings planned for 2013 include Europa Centralna in Gliwice (67,000 m 2 ), Galeria Bronowice in Krakow (approx. 60,000 m 2 ), Poznań City Center in Poznań (58,000 m 2 ), Galeria Katowicka in Katowice (50,500 m 2 ) and the extension of SC Wzgórze in Gdynia. Some tenants are opening stores in new locations, for example an intensive expansion is planned by Grupa LPP, which in March 2013 it is introducing a new brand Sinsay. Tenants are also diversifying the ways they reach consumers by for example online sales. They are also looking for opportunities to strengthen their offer by introducing new concepts (e.g. new concept of Douglas Douglas Beauty Studio). Prime rents in the best retail locations should be relatively stable in A decline in rental rates is expected in less popular or older generation shopping centres and those less favourably situated. Currently, the retail market in Poland can be described as a tenants market; therefore, tenants are reviewing their rents agreed a few years ago. Pressure on rents and the extended period of commercialisation of new projects can translate into an increase in vacancy rates in selected markets. 19 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

20 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND POLAND LEGAL OVERVIEW Poland legal overview BASIC FORMS OF TITLE In Poland there are four basic forms of title to real estate: (i) full ownership ( własność ) which is similar to freehold title and entitles the owner to a full range of perpetual rights to use and enjoy real property; (ii) the right of perpetual usufruct ( użytkowanie wieczyste ) which is a form of ownership where the State Treasury or units of local government own the underlying title and grant the user full rights to use and enjoy the property for up to 99 years subject to an annual statutory fee; subject to certain conditions, the right of perpetual usufruct may be changed into full ownership; (iii) a long term lease ( dzierżawa ), which was originally designated for agricultural land but is often used to lease commercial property for up to a maximum period of thirty (30) years in the event that the tenancy concluded for a fixed term; and (iv) a lease for an indefinite period or a fixed period of time ( najem ) which has a maximum term of ten (10) years or thirty (30) years, if the agreement is entered into between commercial entities. ACQUISITION OF REAL ESTATE BY FOREIGNERS Generally, the direct or indirect acquisition of commercial property by entities which are controlled by foreigners require a permit from the Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration. However, due to amendments arising from Poland s EU accession, entities from the EEA no longer require such a permit. However, certain restrictions and transitional rules relating to the purchase of specific types of real estate (e.g. agricultural land or land located in border zones) remain in place. REGISTRATION SYSTEM In Poland, District Courts maintain land and mortgage registers ( księgi wieczyste ) which can sometimes date back more than 100 years, depending upon the location of the real estate. These registers show the owner of the property in question and also indicate the extent to which the land is encumbered by mortgages and other limited property rights or limitations. As a general rule, good faith purchasers of land are entitled to rely upon information contained in the registers. TRANSFER TAXES Generally, the supply of immovable property is subject to VAT. The supply of undeveloped land other than building land or land designated for development is exempt from VAT. In the event of supply of developed land, the VAT implications of the supply of immovable property (i.e. land and buildings or constructions) are dependent on the VAT consequences of supply of buildings and constructions situated on that land. The VAT exemption covers: A. the supply of buildings, constructions or any part thereof (together with the land), except where: the supply is made within the first occupancy (as defined by VAT Law) or before the first occupancy took place; the period between the first occupancy and the supply of a building, construction or any part thereof was shorter than 2 years B. the supply of buildings, constructions or any part thereof (together with the land) which is not subject to the exemption referred to in A, provided that: the seller had no right to reduce the amount of output VAT by the amount of input VAT connected with these items; the seller did not incur expenses for their improvement in respect of which the seller had the right to reduce the amount of output VAT by the amount of input VAT, and if such expenses were incurred, they were lower than 30 per cent of the initial value of these items (this condition does not apply if buildings, constructions or any part thereof, after improvement, were used by the taxpayer for the purpose of taxable activities for at least 5 years). However, taxpayers who fall within the VAT exemption referred to in point A above, may opt for taxation of the supply made (if the formal requirements provided by VAT Law are met). The exemption referred to in point B above is obligatory for taxpayers (i.e. they may not waive this exemption and opt for VAT taxation). Where a sale of immovable property is either VAT exempt or not subject to VAT, the sale is subject to a transfer tax at the rate of 2% (the buyer is liable for the payment of the transfer tax). Transfer tax is charged on the market value of the immovable property subject to its being transferred. LEASES Leases in Poland are freely negotiable, but subject to certain mandatory provisions of the Civil Code which cannot be varied by contract. The most important restrictions concern the length of lease terms that are concluded for a fixed term (although in commercial leases the maximum period for which a lease agreement can be signed was extended from 10 to 30 years, however this relates solely to those leases, in the case of which both parties are commercial entities) and termination rights. 20 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

21 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND POLAND LEGAL OVERVIEW RESTITUTION CLAIMS There is no comprehensive restitution law in Poland. Instead, there is a complex web of laws which, under limited circumstances, permit certain former owners of real estate to assert claims against governmental authorities. Restitution claims may be registered in the land and mortgage books; however, the absence of such registration does not necessarily indicate that no such claims exist. NOTARIES AND NOTARIAL FEES Legal agreements for the sale of real estate and the transfer of perpetual usufruct rights to real estate need to be in notarial form in order to be enforceable in Poland. Notarial fees are calculated on the value of the transaction up to a set maximum. The new law on Court Registration Fees (effective as of March 2006), introduces fixed fees for entering the following rights into the Land and Mortgage Registers: the right of ownership, the right of perpetual usufruct and limited property rights (e.g. mortgages and easements). CONSTRUCTION LAW As a general rule, all major construction requires a building permit in a form of an administrative decision. Following the amendments made in 2006, administrative requirements for the construction of media access have been relaxed. PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT LAW The local development plan is the main document deciding which investments are to be allowed on a given site. However, many Polish communes still have no local plans in force and therefore, in such cases prior to obtaining a building permit, an administrative decision on the site development conditions is required. LANGUAGE Most legal agreements do not need to be executed in Polish in order to be enforceable in Poland. Nevertheless, the notarial form of real estate transfer can only be executed in Polish. For more information please contact: Piotr Szafarz Partner, Head of Warsaw Real Estate T: E: pszafarz@salans.com or Monika Sitowicz Adwokat, Counsel, Real Estate Group T: E: msitowicz@salans.com Fluent in Real Estate Information contained in this general outline does not constitute a legal opinion and is not meant to be comprehensive. As a result of pending and new legislation, laws and regulations change frequently in Poland and are often subject to varying interpretations. Professional advice should be sought regarding all aspects of real estate in Poland. 21 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

22 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT 2013 POLAND KEY METRIC DEFINITIONS 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents United States: 125 Canada: 38 Latin America: 18 Asia Pacific: 214 EMEA: 117 $1.5 billion in annual revenue million square feet under management Over 12,500 professionals CONTACT: Research & Consultancy Dominika Jędrak Director Mobile: dominika.jedrak@colliers.com COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL POLAND Pl. Piłsudskiego Warsaw Tel This publication does not necessarily deal with every important topic nor cover every aspect of the topics with which it deals. It is not designed to provide legal or other advice. Key metric definitions Prime Headline Capital Value (derived): This is a calculation of market value derived from the annual prime headline rent divided by the prime (net initial) yield. Prime Net Initial Yield: The yield an investor is prepared to pay to buy a Grade A building, fully-let to high quality tenants at an open market rental value in a prime location. Lease terms should be commensurate with the market. As a calculation Net Initial Yield = first years net income/purchase price (prior to deducting fees and taxes) Prime Headline Rent: Represents the top open-market tier of rent that could be expected for a unit of standard size commensurate with demand, of the highest quality and specification in the best location in the market at the survey date. This should reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed at the time but need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-off deals. If there are no relevant transactions during the survey period, the quoted figure will be more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of market conditions, but the same criteria on building size and specification will apply. Prime Net Effective Rent: Prime Net Effective Rent is the lowest rent payable, based on a calculation of the Prime Headline Rent, less the monetary equivalent of the highest of either the rent-free period or fit-out contribution available at the time of the survey date. Average Headline Rent: Average Headline Rent represents the average open-market tier of rent that could be expected for a unit of standard size commensurate with demand, based on a blend of Grade A & B space across a range of locations in the market at the survey date. Total Competitive Stock: Includes the gross leasable floor space in all A and B class buildings. Space Under Active Construction: Represents the total amount of gross leasable floor space of properties where construction has commenced on a new development or in existing properties where a major refurbishment/renovation is ongoing at the survey date. Space Under Construction Inactive: Represents the total amount of gross leasable floor space of properties where construction had started/where a major refurbishment/renovation was ongoing, but activity has since stopped for a period of 3 months or longer. Vacant Space: The total gross leasable floor space in existing properties that meet the Competitive Stock definition, which is physically vacant and being actively marketed at the survey date. Space should be available for immediate occupation. COLLIERS RESEARCH Colliers Research Services Group is recognized as a knowledge leader in the commercial real estate industry, providing clients with valuable market intelligence to support business decisions. Colliers research analysts provide multi-level support across all property types, ranging from data collection to comprehensive market analysis. Across the CEE-SEE-Russia region of EMEA, Colliers researchers regularly collect and update data on key real estate metrics, set to consistent definitions. This information is constantly managed using databases, enabling staff to readily produce analysis on key regional markets including supply, demand, absorption, pricing and transaction data on capital markets and the office, industrial and retail sector. In most CEE-SEE-Russian markets, the office definitions used are consistent with those set out by the CEE Research Forum an umbrella group, of which Colliers is a founding member - established to ensure consistent research methodologies are used, bringing greater transparency and reliability to the analysis of real estate markets in the region. 22 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

23 POLSKA > POLAND RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT ANNUAL 2012

24 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA PRZEDMOWA Drodzy Klienci i Przyjaciele, Mam zaszczyt zaprezentować naszą najnowszą publikację roczny raport podsumowujący trendy na rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych w Polsce w 2012r. oraz prognozy na rok Rok 2012 okazał się dobrym okresem dla rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych w Polsce. Rynek odnotował kilka benchmarków cenowych oraz spektakularnych transakcji w sektorach biurowym i handlowym, w tym sprzedaż Warszawskiego Centrum Finansowego, CH Manufaktura, DH Renoma, International Business Center, Platnium Business Park, kilka transakcji portfeli logistycznych oraz hotelowych (w tym sprzedaż Intercontinental). Podaż powierzchni zarówno biurowych, handlowych jak i magazynowych zwiększyła się, choć nie na wszystkich rynkach możemy mówić o znaczących wzrostach. Aktywność najemców utrzymywała się na wysokim poziomie, a na niektórych rynkach regionalnych możemy mówić nawet o rekordowych wolumenach zawartych transakcji. W przypadku transakcji inwestycyjnych w Polsce łączny wolumen wyniósł ok. 2.7 mld EUR, co stanowi najlepszy wynik od czasu upadku Lehman Brothers. Wynikiem takiej sytuacji rynkowej jest uzyskanie bardzo dobrych rezultatów naszej firmy, odzwierciedlonych również w otrzymanych wyróżnieniach branżowych. Spodziewamy się, że w 2013 roku rynek nie odnotuje trendu wzrostowego, natomiast nadal będzie charakteryzował się płynnością oraz znacznym zainteresowaniem międzynarodowych i krajowych inwestorów. Pod względem podaży nowej powierzchni, rok 2013 zapowiada się optymistycznie. Aktywność najemców nie wzrośnie, jednak powinna utrzymywać się na porównywalnym poziomie jak w ubiegłym roku. Jako wiodąca firma doradcza w 2012 roku wzięliśmy udział w procesach negocjacyjnych wielu prestiżowych klientów. Kolejny raz, rekordowe wyniki zostały odnotowane przez Dział Powierzchni Logistycznych i Przemysłowych. Nasi specjaliści pośredniczyli w wynajmie m², co daje ponad 56% udział w rynku i pierwszą pozycję wśród naszej konkurencji. Dział Usług Inwestycyjnych może także poszczycić się znacznymi osiągnięciami, między innymi jako firma pośrednicząca w transakcji sprzedaży Warszawskiego Centrum Finansowego oraz DH Renoma we Wrocławiu. Za ogromny sukces w 2012 roku możemy również uznać wygrany przetarg na zarządzanie budynkiem Warszawskiego Centrum Finansowego oraz kompleksu biurowo-usługowego Platinium Business Park. W ramach realizacji wizji naszej firmy, dostarczamy wysoki standard i zintegrowany pakiet usług. Wychodząc naprzeciw potrzebom rynku oraz naszych klientów postanowiliśmy poszerzyć zakres naszej działalności otwierając nowe działy w Poznaniu i Szczecinie oraz tworząc nową biznesową linię Facility Management. Podnoszenie kwalifikacji naszych pracowników jest ważnym elementem doskonalenia jakości świadczonych przez nas usług. W 2012 roku cztery kolejne osoby zostały członkami Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), wiodącej organizacji wyznaczającej najwyższe standardy w sektorze nieruchomości. Jest nam bardzo miło, że nasze doświadczenie i profesjonalizm zostały docenione przez naszych klientów i rynek, czego dowodem są przyznane nam nagrody: dla Najlepszej Agencji w Polsce w kategorii Powierzchni Biurowych, Magazynowych i Handlowych według Eurobuild Awards 2012, dla Agencji Roku 2012 w CIJ Awards 2012 oraz 5* nagrodę dla Najlepszej Firmy Doradczej z zakresu Nieruchomości w Polsce według International Property Awards Europe Dodatkowo, Colliers International zdobył nagrodę dla Najlepszej Agencji w Polsce w kategorii Powierzchni Magazynowych, Biurowych czy Zarządcy Roku 2011 według głosów najemców, przyznanej podczas gali CEE Quality Awards Dla Colliers International w Polsce był to znaczący rok, który ugruntował pozycje Colliers International jako lidera rynku nieruchomości. Skupiliśmy swoje działania na rozwoju strategii naszej marki; otworzyliśmy nowe działy oraz poszerzyliśmy zakres świadczonych usług niezmiennie dbając o najwyższy poziom jakości obsługi klienta. Liczymy na dalszą owocną współpracę z Państwem w 2013 roku! Z poważaniem, Monika Rajska Wolińska Partner Zarządzający 24 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

25 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA ZARYS OGÓLNY Zarys ogólny TRENDY Gospodarka: Na tle państw Europy Polska w 2012r. kreowała się jako kraj o dobrej sytuacji ekonomicznej. Jednakże, wskutek niekorzystnej sytuacji w strefie euro widoczne było wyhamowanie wzrostu gospodarczego. PKB wzrosło do poziomu 2,25%, stopa bezrobocia osiągnęła wartość 12,9%, a inflacja spadła do 3,85%. Rynek hotelowy: Rok 2012 był dobrym rokiem dla operatorów hotelowych w Polsce. Duże znaczenie dla osiągnięcia pozytywnych wyników sprzedażowym w większości miast miały Mistrzostwa UEFA EURO 2012, a także inwestycje infrastrukturalne w drogi, stadiony, koleje i lotniska. Rynek inwestycyjny: Polska utrzymała swoją pozycję wiodącego rynku nieruchomości w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej, pod względem wolumenu transakcji, płynności oraz dostępności finansowania dłużnego dla najlepszych nieruchomości. Rynek gruntów inwestycyjnych: Zgodnie z naszymi przewidywaniami, rok 2012 okazał się atrakcyjny oraz optymistyczny dla rynku gruntów inwestycyjnych, o czym świadczy ilość oraz wartość zawartych transakcji. Nie oznacza to jednak powrotu do tendencji wzrostowej sprzed 2009 roku, a jedynie systematyczną stabilizację w tym obszarze gospodarki, odczuwalną szczególnie przez silne i zdrowe kapitałowo firmy deweloperskie oraz fundusze inwestycyjne. WSKAŹNIKI RYNKOWE PKB BEZROBOCIE WYNAGRODZENIA INFLACJA WOLUMEN TRANSAKCJI INWESTYCYJNYCH STAWKI CZYNSZU: BIURA STAWKI CZYNSZU: MAGAZYNY STAWKI CZYNSZU: POW. HANDLOWE STOPY ZWROTU 2012* 2013* * W PORÓWNANIU DO ROKU POPRZEDNIEGO Rynek magazynowy: Pod koniec roku 2012, całkowita podaż nowoczesnej powierzchni handlowej w Polsce wyniosła 7,27 milionów m 2. Wolumen transakcji osiągnął poziom 1,65 miliona m 2. Współczynnik powierzchni niewynajętej zmniejszył się w stosunku do roku ubiegłego i ukształtował się na poziomie 9,2%. Rynek biurowy: Na koniec czwartego kwartału 2012 roku, całkowita podaż powierzchni biurowej w Polsce wyniosła 5,8 miliona m 2, z czego 67% przypadło na Warszawę. Aktywność najemców wzrosła o 10% w porównaniu do analogicznego okresu roku Umowy pre-let stanowiły 34% wolumenu wszystkich transakcji. Współczynnik powierzchni niewynajętej wyniósł 9%. Rynek handlowy: Na koniec 2012 roku, całkowita podaż nowoczesnej powierzchni handlowej w Polsce wyniosła 9,17 miliona m 2. W ciągu roku 485,600 m 2 powierzchni zostało oddane do użytku, co stanowi spadek o ok. 22% w porównaniu z rokiem poprzednim. Pustostany na głównych polskich rynkach handlowych były niższe niż 5%. PROGNOZY Gospodarka: Po pierwszym kwartale 2013r., kiedy to Polska stanie na krawędzi recesji, w kolejnych miesiącach należy spodziewać się stopniowej poprawy sytuacji. Siłą napędową będzie poprawiająca się sytuacja w strefie euro, co przełoży się na wzrost dochodów z eksportu, a z czasem także na wzrost konsumpcji. Wzrost gospodarczy ukształtuje na poziomie nie przekraczającym 2,0%, stopa bezrobocia wzrośnie do 13,6%, spadek inflacji wyniesie natomiast 3,5%. Rynek hotelowy: Brak jest przesłanek aby prognozować 2013 rok jako dobry dla operatorów hotelowych. Wrócą czasy ograniczania kosztów i walki o obłożenie. Pozytywnym zjawiskiem w latach będzie spadek kosztów budowy hoteli w Polsce. Rynek inwestycyjny: W 2013 roku Polska zachowa swoją pozycję wiodącego rynku nieruchomości w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej. Również, zgodnie z perspektywami makroekonomicznymi UE, zaufanie inwestorów oraz ich aktywność pozostaną zachowane. Stopy kapitalizacji dla najlepszych nieruchomości będą stabilne. Rynek gruntów inwestycyjnych: Mamy szansę na przekroczenie pod koniec 2013 roku wartości transakcji z roku ubiegłego, przy czym należy pamiętać, iż większość inwestycji zakupowych na rynku gruntów inwestycyjnych będzie miała miejsce w Warszawie. Rynek magazynowy: W roku 2013 będzie można zaobserwować utrzymujące się zainteresowanie inwestorów regionami, takimi jak: Śląsk, Wrocław, Warszawa, Poznań czy Polska Centralna. Dominowały będą umowy pre-let oraz BTS. W całej Polsce będzie można zaobserwować spadającą ilość powierzchni niewynajętej. Natomiast w rejonach o współczynniku powierzchni niewynajętej niższym niż 5%, ceny za 1 m 2 utrzymają się na stałym poziomie, a ceny wzrosną nieznacznie. Rynek biurowy: W roku 2013 całkowita podaż nowoczesnej powierzchni biurowej wzrośnie o m 2, co w przypadku większości rynków zaowocuje rosnącą ilością wolnej powierzchni. Aktywność najemców utrzyma się na poziomie zbliżonym do tego w roku W związku z rosnącą podażą, stawki czynszów mogą nieznacznie spaść. Rynek handlowy: W trakcie budowy znajduje się aktualnie blisko 800,000 m 2 nowoczesnej powierzchni handlowej, z czego większość zostanie ukończona w 2013 roku. Szacuje się, że nowa podaż osiągnie poziom 600,000 m 2. Stawki czynszów typu prime na większości rynków powinny pozostać względnie stabilne. 25 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

26 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA GOSPODARKA Gospodarka PODSTAWOWE DANE Populacja Polska % 3 główne miasta ,29% Warszawa ,45% Kraków ,97% Łódź ,87%, na podstawie GUS Eksport Import Niemcy 25,3% Niemcy 21,3% Wielka Brytania 6,7% Rosja 14,1% Francja 5,9% Chiny 9,0%, na podstawie GUS PKB, INFLACJA I BEZROBOCIE ZARYS OGÓLNY Na tle państw Europy Polska w 2012r. kreowała się jako kraj o dobrej sytuacji ekonomicznej. Dzięki skutecznej polityce w wielu obszarach i silnym fundamentom makroekonomicznym polska gospodarka osiągnęła zadowalające wyniki. Warto jednak podkreślić, że mimo wszystko wskutek niekorzystnej sytuacji w strefie euro widoczne było wyhamowanie wzrostu gospodarczego. Zgodnie z danymi Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego (MFW) wzrost PKB w Polsce w 2012r. wyniósł 2,25%. W porównaniu z 2011r., kiedy to w stosunku do 2010r. wzrost wyniósł 4,3%, uwidoczniła się duża skala spowolnienia gospodarczego. Mimo to z kwartału na kwartał odnotowywano coraz wyższe wskaźniki, co świadczy o poprawiającej się sytuacji gospodarczej. W 2012r. polskie saldo handlu zagranicznego utrzymywało się na poziomie ok. 30 mld PLN, co jest wynikiem znacznie lepszym niż w roku poprzednim. W ciągu 2012r. eksport zwiększył się o ponad 8 punktów procentowych, co w dużej mierze spowodowane było słabszym złotym, który zwiększył opłacalność inwestowania za granicą. Poziom importu natomiast wzrósł o ok. 4 punkty procentowe. 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% PKB Inflacja Stopa bezrobocia Z danych GUS wynika także, że polskie firmy zdecydowały się na dywersyfikację partnerów handlowych. Skutkowało to spadkiem eksportu do Szwecji czy Włoch na rzecz wzrostu do takich krajów, jak: Rosja, Ukraina, Wielka Brytania, Hongkong czy Indie. Polska nadal jest atrakcyjna dla inwestorów zagranicznych, zwłaszcza ze względu na duże zasoby siły roboczej (w Polsce ok. 68% populacji jest w wieku produkcyjnym), a bieguny wzrostu ekonomicznego cechuje duże rozprzestrzenienie. Przekłada się to na możliwość rozwoju nowoczesnych nieruchomości poza Warszawą, zwłaszcza w rozwijających się miastach regionalnych., na podstawie NBP PRODUKCJA PRZEMYSŁOWA (2005=100) Polska Niemcy EU27, na podstawie Eurostat FINANSE PUBLICZNE 9% 6% 3% PROGNOZY Według prognoz ekonomistów wzrost gospodarczy będzie kształtował się na poziomie poniżej 2%. Przewiduje się, że na początku 2013 roku Polska stanie na krawędzi recesji i będzie jednym z niewielu europejskich państw, gdzie dynamika wzrostu PKB będzie niższa niż w roku poprzednim. Przyczyn takiego stanu rzeczy należy doszukiwać się w osłabionym popycie wewnętrznym, który spowodowany będzie pogarszającą się sytuacją na rynku pracy (Instytut Badań nad Gospodarką Rynkową prognozuje wzrost bezrobocia do poziomu 13,6%) i kiepskimi nastrojami konsumenckimi. Zgodnie z prognozą BZ WBK po dołku w pierwszym kwartale 2013r. należy spodziewać się jednak stopniowej poprawy sytuacji. Siłą napędową będzie poprawiająca się sytuacja w strefie euro, co przełoży się na wzrost dochodów z eksportu, a z czasem także na wzrost konsumpcji. Istotną barierą wzrostu gospodarczego w 2013r. w Polsce będzie niska dynamika inwestycji zarówno krajowych, jak i zagranicznych. Zgodnie z przewidywaniami IBnGR wyniesie ona zaledwie 2,0%. Prognoza inwestycji zagranicznych obarczona jest jednak dużym ryzykiem ze względu na niepewność panującą na rynkach europejskich i zmienność kursów walutowych. Eksperci w dłuższej perspektywie wskazują jednak na możliwość aprecjacji złotego (w 2012r. średnioroczny kurs euro wyniósł 4,2 PLN, a w 2013r. prognozowany jest na 4 PLN). 0% -3% -6% -9% Deficyt sektora rządowego i samorządowego (% PKB) Saldo obrotów bieżących (% PKB), na podstawie OECD 26 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

27 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA RYNEK HOTELOWY Rynek hotelowy OBŁOŻENIE I ADR W NAJWIĘKSZYCH MIASTACH POLSKI MIASTO* OBŁOŻENIE ADR (EUR) Warszawa 69% 82 Kraków 63% 62 Gdańsk 64% 63 Wrocław 66% 59 Poznań 49% 69 Łódź 55% 62 *2-5-gwiazdkowe hotele WYBRANE OTWARCIA HOTELI W 2012 ROKU HOTEL MIASTO Express by Holiday Inn *** Warszawa 124 LICZBA POKOI Ibis *** / Ibis-Budget ** Kraków 135 / 167 Ibis Syles *** Gdynia 86 Holiday Inn **** Łódź 127 Hilton Garden Inn **** Rzeszów 101 PRZYJAZDY TURYSTÓW (mln) 20 ZARYS OGÓLNY Rok 2012 okazał się całkiem dobrym rokiem dla operatorów hotelowych w Polsce. Duże znaczenie dla osiągnięcia pozytywnych wyników sprzedażowych miały Mistrzostwa UEFA EURO Szacujemy, że wydarzenie to wygenerowało ponad sprzedanych noclegów w miastach, w których odbywały się mecze. SEKTOR HOTELOWY W NAJWIĘKSZYCH MIASTACH POLSKI WARSZAWA Warszawa podczas UEFA EURO 2012 osiągnęła najwyższe w historii stawki za pokój (ADR). Przykładowo 8 czerwca (mecz Polska - Grecja) hotele 5-gwiazdkowe podniosły swoje ADR do 200 EUR, osiągając przy tym ponad 87% obłożenia. Kolejne mecze reprezentacji Polski rozgrywane na Stadionie Narodowym zaowocowały obłożeniem na poziomie 98%, przy historycznie największych stawkach ADR i poziomach RevPAR. Z drugiej strony w czerwcu i lipcu odwołane zostało część imprez z sektora MICE, jednak te miesiące tak czy inaczej charakteryzują się spowolnieniem aktywności w tym sektorze. Warszawa uzyskała wysokie poziomy obłożenia (74,6%) w segmencie hoteli 5-gwiazdkowych przy ADR na poziomie 113 EUR najwyższy poziom ADR w ostatnich 10 latach. W ciągu całego roku w Warszawie występował silny popyt na noclegi w segmencie biznesowym i małych konferencji. Ten trend w połączeniu z UEFA EURO 2012 pozwolił hotelom 5-gwiazdkowym na osiągnięcie średniego poziomu obłożenia na poziomie 74,6% oraz średniego ADR w wysokości około 113 EUR. Również segment obiektów 3- i 4-gwiazdkowych radził sobie dobrze pod względem operacyjnym, osiągając 69,5% średniego obłożenia przy stawkach ADR około 82,5 EUR. KRAKÓW Miasto zostało wybrane na siedzibę brytyjskiej reprezentacji podczas Mistrzostw UEFA EURO Dzięki temu oraz stosunkowo długiemu sezonowi letniemu miasto osiągnęło pozytywne wyniki w stosunku do roku Markowe produkty hotelowe miały dobry rok, osiągając poziom obłożenia na poziomie około 68% i ADR w wysokości około 76 EUR. Dobrze radziły sobie obiekty 5-gwiazdkowe, które osiągnęły około 74% obłożenia przy ADR wynoszącym 94 EUR TRÓJMIASTO Trójmiasto, w którego skład wchodzi Gdańsk, Gdynia i Sopot podczas mistrzostw EURO 2012 osiągnęło najwyższe w Polsce ADR sięgające 225 EUR. W 2012 hotele w Gdańsku odnotowały poziom obłożenia na poziomie 64%, z ADR w wysokości 63 EUR. Segment 5-gwaiazdkowy zakończył rok na poziomie 69% obłożenia i ADR w wysokości 87 EUR. Wyniki hoteli 5-gwiazdkowych zlokalizowanych w Sopocie szacujemy na 61% poziomu obłożenia oraz średniej stawce za pokój w wysokości 105 EUR., na podstawie Instytutu Turystyki 27 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

28 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA RYNEK HOTELOWY UDZIAŁ POSZCZEGÓLNYCH KATEGORII W RYNKU HOTELOWYM W NAJWIĘKSZYCH POLSKICH MIASTACH 19% 8% 8% 49% 16% POZNAŃ Podczas Mistrzostw Euro 2012 wzrost wskaźnika RevPAR nastąpił w momencie pierwszego meczu w Poznaniu i osiągnął wartość 179 EUR. Był on wynikiem wzrostu średnich stawek oraz poziomu obłożenia. Jednak w następnych dniach wzrost wskaźnika RevPAR osłabił się, a obłożenie osiągnęło 91,6% (+14,3%) 14 czerwca, kiedy Włochy zmierzyły się z Chorwacją oraz w dniu ostatniego meczu rozgrywanego w Poznaniu 18 czerwca. Podczas meczu Włochy Irlandia poziom obłożenia wyniósł 97,4% (+57,7%) a ADR wzrósł do 198 EUR. W 2012 roku niektóre hotele w Poznaniu osiągnęły poprawę wyników. Najlepiej prosperującymi hotelami w mieście są IBB Andersia, Ibis oraz Campanile. Poziom obłożenia dla hoteli we wszystkich kategoriach wyniósł 49% a ADR osiągnął wartość 69 EUR. Wyniki najlepiej prosperującego hotelu kształtowały się na poziomie 66% wskaźnika obłożenia przy ADR 91 EUR. Hotel ***** Hotel **** Hotel *** Hotel ** Hotel *, na podstawie Ewidencji Obiektów Hotelarskich w Polsce LICZBA OFICJALNIE SKATEGORYZOWANYCH HOTELI NA KONIEC 2012 ROKU KATEGORIA WARSZAWA KRAKÓW POZNAŃ Hotel ***** Hotel **** Hotel *** Hotel ** Hotel * Total: KATEGORIA WROCŁAW GDAŃSK ŁÓDŹ SZCZECIN Hotel ***** Hotel **** Hotel *** Hotel ** Hotel * Total: , na podstawie Ewidencji Obiektów Hotelarskich w Polsce SZCZECIN W 2012 Szczecin odnotował niewielki spadek wyników w porównaniu do roku Wskaźnik obłożenia wyniósł 59% przy ADR kształtującym się na poziomie 54 EUR. ŁÓDŹ Konferencje lokalne i regionalne, które odbyły się w mieście były mniejsze i uczestniczyło w nich mniej osób niż w roku Liderem rynku pozostaje hotel Andel s zlokalizowany przy centrum handlowym Manufaktura. Najlepiej prosperujący hotel w segmencie 4 gwiazdek zakończył rok z wynikiem 57% obłożenia i 75 EUR ADR. Średnia dla wszystkich segmentów wyniosła 55% wskaźnika obłożenia i 62 EUR ADR. WROCŁAW Wrocław także odnotował widoczny wzrost wyników podczas rozgrywek UEFA EURO Podczas wszystkich trzech mieczy poziom obłożenia we wrocławskich hotelach przekroczył 92%, a hotelarze cieszyli się silnym wzrostem wskaźnika RevPAR w dniach 8 i 16 czerwca. Co ciekawe tylko umiarkowany wzrost RevPAR odnotowano 12 czerwca, czyli w dniu meczu Czechy-Grecja. Mniejszą dynamikę wzrostu RevPAR w tym dniu wytłumaczyć można bliskością Wrocławia i granicy czeskiej - trochę ponad godzinę jazdy samochodem przez co wielu kibiców zdecydowało się na jednodniową wycieczkę, bez noclegu we Wrocławiu. Hotele markowe prowadziły pod względem osiągniętych wyników. We wszystkich segmentach średnie obłożenie wyniosło 64%, a ADR 63 EUR. Wyniki obiektów 5-gwiazdkowych kształtowały się na poziomie około 86 euro ADR oraz 64% obłożenia. INNE POLSKIE MIASTA W Katowicach hotele osiągnęły obłożenie na poziomie 51,5%, przy ADR wynoszącym 61 EUR. Wyniki ponad średnią miastową osiągnął lider rynku hotel Angelo. Nowymi ważnymi inwestycjami zrealizowanymi w pozostałych regionach Polski były PGB Dom w Świnoujściu oraz condohotel marki Golden Tulip w Międzyzdrojach, których otwarcia miały miejsce odpowiednio w kwietniu i lipcu. We wrześniu 2012 swoją premierę miał także oferujący 104 pokoje hotel Hilton Garden Inn zlokalizowany w Rzeszowie. 28 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

29 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA RYNEK HOTELOWY WYBRANE PLANOWANE OTWARCIA HOTELI W 2013 ROKU HOTEL DoubleTree by Hilton Conference Centre ***** MIASTO Warszawa 367 Renaissance by Marriott ***** Warszawa 250 Hampton by Hilton *** Warszawa 116 SoundGarden ** / *** Warszawa 206 Puro *** Kraków 128 DoubleTree by Hilton **** Łódź 197 LICZBA POKOI PROGNOZY Poza Światową Konferencją Klimatyczną COP 19, która odbędzie się w Warszawie, brak jest przesłanek aby prognozować 2013 rok jako dobry dla operatorów hotelowych. Wrócą czasy ograniczania kosztów i walki o obłożenie. Na sprzedaż wystawiona zostanie duża liczba mniejszych hoteli należących do osób prywatnych i przez nie prowadzonych. Prognozujemy też zmianę właścicieli niektórych istniejących sieciowych obiektów w głównych miastach. Jasny aspekt w następnym i 2014 roku stanowić będzie zmniejszenie kosztów budowy hoteli w Polsce, co wynikać będzie z osłabienia przemysły budowlanego. Podtrzymujemy nasze zeszłoroczne rekomendacje, widząc optymistyczny horyzont dla produktów w segmencie 1-, 2- i 3-gwiazdkowym działających pod szyldami globalnych marek, zlokalizowanych w większości regionów Polski. Dzięki UEFA Euro 2012 obserwujemy w Polsce rozwój efektywnych form i środków komunikacji, a tym dróg, kolei oraz połączeń lotniczych, które są niezbędnymi elementami skutecznego rozwoju sektora hotelowego. Pozwala to na optymistyczne spojrzenie w przyszłość. Oceniamy, że następujące marki hotelowe rozpoczną lub będą kontynuowały swoją ekspansje w Polsce: Super 8, B&B, Best Western, Hampton by Hilton oraz Ibis Styles. 29 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

30 PRZEGLĄD RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI 2013 POLSKA RYNEK INWESTYCYJNY Rynek inwestycyjny Główne wskaźniki inwestycyjne Wolumen transakcji 2,7 mld EUR Stopy zwrotu z najlepszych nieruchomości: Biura 6,25% Obiekty handlowe 6,00% Magazyny 7,75% STOPY ZWROTU Z NAJLEPSZYCH NIERUCHOMOŚCI 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% BIURA OBIEKTY HANDLOWE MAGAZYNY ZARYS OGÓLNY Wolumen transakcji inwestycyjnych w 2012 wyniósł 2,7 mld EUR, osiągając poziom sprzed kryzysu (2007 r). Znaczące pojedyncze transakcje takie jak Manufaktura czy Warsaw Financial Center podkreślają zaufanie jakim międzynarodowa społeczność inwestycyjna darzy polski rynek. Polska utrzymała swoją pozycję jako wiodący rynek nieruchomości w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej pod względem wolumenu transakcji, płynności oraz dostępności finansowania dłużnego dla najlepszych nieruchomości. STOPY KAPITALIZACJI Stopy kapitalizacji dla najlepszych nieruchomości biurowych w centrum Warszawy w 2012 r. kształtowały się w przedziale 6.25%-6.50%, natomiast dla obszaru CBD- Fringe 6.75%. Stopy kapitalizacji dla Mokotowa (drugiej największej dzielnicy biurowej w Warszawie i jednego z najbardziej aktywnych rynków w zakresie inwestycji na rynku nieruchomości w ciągu ostatnich miesięcy) odnotowała tendencję wzrostową z poziomu lekko poniżej 7% w IV kwartale 2011 r. do ok. 7.5%-7.75% w II kwartale 2012 r. w wyniku nasycenia rynku i oraz perspektyw rynku najmu powierzchni biurowych. Niezależnie od powyższego w dzielnicy odnotowano dwie znaczące transakcje w 2012 r. tj. nabycie Platinium Business Park przez Allianz i Marynarska Business Park przez Heitman Dla najlepszych nieruchomości handlowych w 2012 r. w Warszawie stopy kapitalizacji kształtowały się w przedziale 6%-6.5%, a dla miast poza stolicą nieznacznie poniżej 6% (wybrane nieruchomości)-8.5%. Stopy kapitalizacji dla najlepszych nieruchomości magazynowych w 2012r. kształtowały się na poziomie nieznacznie poniżej 8%, na których ceny w dużej mierze ma wpływ średnio ważona okres zapadalności umów. Dla nieruchomości z krótszym okresem rezydualnym umów należy się spodziewać transakcji przy poziomie wyższym o ok punktów bazowych. WOLUMEN TRANSAKCJI (mln EUR) WOLUMENY Całkowita wartość inwestycji w wysokości 2.7 mld EUR osiągnęła poziom z 2007r. i przekroczyła ubiegłoroczne wynik, głównie dzięki imponującemu IV kwartałowi 2012r., kiedy wartość zamkniętych transakcji wyniosła 1.6 mld EUR WOLUMENY SEKTORAMI Głównie ze względu na skalę transakcji takich jak Złote Tarasy, Manufaktura i Renoma, wartość transakcji obiektami handlowymi stanowiła 45% udziału w rynku, udział transakcji obiektami biurowymi ukształtował się na poziomie 34% a magazynowymi na poziomie 17% - ten ostatni sektor zanotował znaczący wzrost rocznego wolumeny w porównaniu do poprzednich dwóch lat Żródło: Colliers International OPISY TRANSAKCJI Rynek odnotował ponad 40 transakcji instytucjonalnych o średniej wartości ok. 65 mln EUR oraz 8 transakcji powyżej 100 mln EUR. Najbardziej znaczące transakcje w 2012 r. to nabycie Złotych Tarasach przez AXA Real Estate i CBRE Property Fund Central Europe LP dla za 475 mln EUR, nabycie Manufaktury przez Union Investment za 390 mln EUR, jak również Warsaw Financial Center za ok. 210 mln EUR przez joint venture Allianz Real Estate i Tristan Capital Partners. Cykl transakcji wydłużył się i obecnie wynosi średnio 6-9 miesięcy od rozpoczęcia do zamknięcia transakcji, w zależności od struktury transakcji. 30 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL