Cracow University of Economics Poland

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Julian Kaczmarczyk
8 lat temu
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1 Cracow University of Economics Poland Sources of Real GDP per Capita Growth: Polish Regional-Macroeconomic Dimensions Keynote Speech - Presented by: Dr. David Clowes The Growth Research Unit, Cracow University of Economics, Poland.

2 Overview Real GDP/Capita is the market value of goods and services available to a country s citizens and as such is regarded as the best measure of welfare. The Case Earlier research on growth performance across Poland s sixteen regions has highlighted the presence of serious economic disparities, especially down the Eastern wall of the country. Objective The aim of this study is to show that a process of convergence between the Eastern regions of the country and the comparatively better developed Western regions has been initiated. Methodology: The Decomposition Technique

The Case Earlier research on growth performance across Poland s sixteen regions has highlighted the presence of serious economic disparities,

3 Regional Welfare (Real GDP Capita) Distribution Effects (2005) ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE LUBUSKIE WIELKOPOLSKIE DOLNOŚLĄSKIE POMORSKIE OPOLSKIE KUJAWSKO -POMORSKIE Poland A > 80% of National Level Poland B < 80% of National Level ŚLĄSKIE WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE ŁÓDZKIE 76.3 MAZOWIECKIE ŚWIETOKRZYSKIE 74.6 MAŁOPOLSKIE PODLASKIE LUBELSKIE 68.4 PODKARPACKIE Polish Real GDP/Capita = 25,228 PLN (100%) Eastern wall regions at least 25% behind the national level Causes & Effects? Are Eastern wall regions showing any signs of convergence?

2 9 Poland A > 80% of National Level Poland B < 80% of National Level 92.1 108.4 ŚLĄSKIE WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE ŁÓDZKIE 76.3 MAZOWIECKIE 85.1 158.

4 Measuring Convergence in Welfare Chosen Methodology Decomposition Technique for Real GDP Capita gdp pop gdp hours employment hours employment pop 15 pop pop 15 Where: GDP = gross domestic product Pop = total population Hours = total number of hours worked Employment = number of people employed Pop 15 = Population of working age (aged 15 and above)

= gross domestic product Pop = total population Hours = total number of hours worked

5 20 15 Polish Real GDP Capita Decomposed Average Annual Percentage Change ( ) Output (%) The sum of the four given components of real GDP/capita grew by 13% on average between 2000 & GDP/Hours 16.8% Hours/empl. Empl./Pop 15 Pop 15 /Population 0.39% -5 Labour Productivity -2.7% Work Effort -0.9% Employment Rate Demographic Factor Clowes, 2007.

between 2000 & 2005. GDP/Hours 16.8% 10 5 0 Hours/empl. Empl./Pop 15 Pop 15 /Population 0.

6 Regional Growth in Labour Productivity (%) Fastest Growing Regions in Total Percentage Terms ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE LUBUSKIE WIELKOPOLSKIE DOLNOŚLĄSKIE 58.8 POMORSKIE 61.9 OPOLSKIE KUJAWSKO -POMORSKIE ŚLĄSKIE WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE ŁÓDZKIE 97.1 MAZOWIECKIE ŚWIETOKRZYSKIE 55.4 MAŁOPOLSKIE PODLASKIE LUBELSKIE 85.0 PODKARPACKIE Rank 3 Rank 1 Polish Labour Productivity grew by a total 84.3% between > 85% < 85% Rank 4 Rank 2

3 ŚLĄSKIE WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE ŁÓDZKIE 97.1 MAZOWIECKIE 67.3 80.6 ŚWIETOKRZYSKIE 55.4 MAŁOPOLSKIE PODLASKIE 97.9 146.1 74.

7 Sources of Labour Productivity Growth Sectoral Shifts in Employment in % ( ) Region/sector Farming, Forrestry & fishing Industry, Building & Construction Services Farming, Forrestry & fishing Industry, Building & Construction Services POLAND Podlaskie Podkarpackie Warmińsko-mazurskie Lubelskie Świętokrzyskie Mazowieckie Śląskie Wielkopolskie Dolnośląskie

4 Podlaskie Podkarpackie Warmińsko-mazurskie Lubelskie Świętokrzyskie 36.5 30.8 17.9 39.4 31.0 18.6 28.2 28.1 18.1 24.9 45.0 41.1 54.0 42.5 44.2 34.4 25.6 16.4 35.9 33.

8 Regional Welfare 2005 Relationship between hours worked & real output per head Poland: Hours = 1,490 GDP/Capita = 25,228 40,000 35,000 Mazowieckie Mazowieckie: Hours = 1,391 GDP/Capita = 39,902 Podlaskie: Hours = 1,835 GDP/Capita = 18,715 GDP per Capita 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Łódzkie Sląskie Dolnosląskie Świętokrzyskie Wielkopolskie Poland Lubuskie Kujaw sko-pomorskie Pomorskie Zachodnio-Pomorskie Małopolskie Lubelskie Warmińsko- Mazurskie Opolskie Podlaskie Podkarpackie 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 Hours

25,000 20,000 15,000 Łódzkie Sląskie Dolnosląskie Świętokrzyskie Wielkopolskie Poland Lubuskie Kujaw sko-pomorskie Pomorskie

9 Concluding Points The convergence of Eastern wall regions towards national levels has commenced for the first time in the country s history and the source of this growth is labour productivity, which is consistent with observed shifts in the structure of employment. Support Factors I. Investment Inflows II. Trends Moving East

growth is labour productivity, which is consistent with observed shifts in the

10 Region Podkarpackie Lubelskie Podlaskie Warmińsko-Mazurskie Świętokrzyskie Opolskie Małopolskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Lubuskie Zachodniopomorskie Łódzkie Pomorskie Poland Dolnośląskie Wielkopolskie Śląskie Mazowieckie Labour Productivity per Capita (PLN) 12,112 12,718 13,669 13,961 14,119 15,763 16,863 17,196 18,217 18,366 19,003 19,695 20,656 21,286 22,501 22,713 35,709 Labour Productivity Growth (% ) % (2) 84.7% (4) 146.1% (1) 97.1% (3) 55.4% (15) 61.9% (12) 67.3% (9) 51.2% (16) 81.5% (6) 42.8% (17) 62.2% (11) 65.9% (10) 84.3% (5) 58.3% (14) 58.8% (13) 71.3% (8) 80.6% (7)

15,763 16,863 17,196 18,217 18,366 19,003 19,695 20,656 21,286 22,501 22,713 35,709 Labour Productivity Growth (% ) 2000-2005 97.9% (2) 84.7% (4) 146.

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