Market Overview 2013

Transkrypt

1 Market Overview 2013

2 Economic overview (2013) GDP, Inflation Unemployment 10% 20% 9% 18% 8% 16% 7% 14% 6% 12% 5% 10% 4% 8% 3% 6% 2% 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% GDP (%, left axis) Inflation (%, left axis) Unemployment (%, right axis) According to estimates by analysts from leading banks, GDP grew by at least 2.5% in Q4 y-o-y, while the Central Statistical Office has announced that the annual growth rate was 1.6%. The inflation rate stood at 0.9% in 2013, which is 2.8 p.p. less than the CPI recorded in According to preliminary data by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, the unemployment rate in December 2013 grew by 0.2 p.p. on November 2013 and reached 13.4%. Based on Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Labour and Social Policy 2

3 Industrial Market

4 Industrial Market in Poland in ,000 m 2 of newly delivered modern warehouse space in 2013 Almost 707,000 m 2 of space under construction (at the end of 2013) BTS agreements retaining their popularity in 2014 Prognosed proggressive return to launching speculative investments in selected markets EXISTING SPACE (m 2 ) SPACE DELIVERED TO THE MARKET IN Q (m 2 ) SPACE DELIVERED TO THE MARKET IN 2013 (m 2 ) SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (m 2 ) VACANCY RATE Warsaw 2,714,945 26,000 75,931 20, % Upper Silesia 1,488,837 12,317 27,500 26, % Central Poland 1,008, ,900 67, % Poznań 910,647 9,900 90, , % Wrocław 826,237 7,000 21, , % Gdańsk 203, ,862 24, % Kraków 160, , % Toruń / Bydgoszcz 101, , % Szczecin 48, , % Other 295, ,400 78, % TOTAL 7,758,872 55, , , % 4

5 Supply and available space Gdańsk 203,600 m ,500 m 2 2.5% 5 Szczecin 48,700 m ,400 m 2 7.5% Wrocław 826,200 m 2 7,000 m 2 259,000 m % Poznań 910,700 m 2 9,900 m 2 217,300 m 2 4.6% Upper Silesia 1.5 million m 2 12,300 m 2 26,800 m 2 9.8% Toruń 101,100 m % Central Poland 1 million m ,000 m % Kraków 160,500 m % Warsaw 2.7 million m 2 26,000 m 2 20,400 m 2 14% Legend Region Total stock Space delivered in Q Space under construction Vacancy rate

6 Vacant space and rental rates Effective rental rates (EUR / m 2 ) REGION MIN. (EUR/m²) MAX. (EUR/m²) Vacancy rate 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Warsaw I Warsaw II Warsaw III Central Poland Poznań Upper Silesia Kraków Wrocław Gdańsk Toruń Szczecin Q Q

7 Take-up and its structure 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50, % 32% 4% 30% New agreements BTS Expansions Renegotiations 7

8 Selected lease transactions (2013) TENANT AREA (m 2 ) PROJECT Amazon 123,500 Goodman Wrocław South Logistic Center Amazon 100,653 Panattoni Poznań Amazon 100,653 Panattoni Wrocław Bielany Wrocławskie Retailer 82,385 Poznań Castorama 49,961 Panattoni Park Stryków Eko Holding 34,960 Prologis Park Wrocław V Volkswagen 32,000 SEGRO Logistics Park Poznań III PF Logo 26,743 PointPark Poznań Eurocash 26,170 SEGRO Logistics Park Poznań Intercars 25,844 Goodman Sosnowiec Logistic Center Market shares

9 Office Market

10 Office Market in Poland in 2013 Thanks to new supply totalling 585,000 m 2, the office stock in nine major markets in Poland amounted to 6.3 million m 2 In 2013, transaction volumes exceeded 970,000 m 2 At the end of December 2013, the overall vacancy rate in major office markets accounted for 11.9% Key figures CITY SUPPLY (m 2 ) VACANCY RATE (%) NEW SUPPLY (m 2 ) DEMAND (m 2 ) Warsaw 4,112, , ,620 Kraków 519, ,114 91,483 Wrocław 458, ,791 71,330 Tricity 350, ,796 42,846 Poznań 265, ,400 36,068 Łódź 236, ,380 20,779 Katowice 218, ,745 52,493 Szczecin 92, ,380 16,002 Lublin 89, ,853 5,620 Total 6,343, % 584, ,242 10

11 Office Market Warsaw

12 Office Market in Warsaw in 2013 North 143,600 m % 15 City Centre- Core 473,200 m 2 West 315,200 m % % City Centre- Fringe 773,700 m 2 9.6% East 172,100 m 2 9.4% 12.5 Legend Zone Supply Vacancy Rate Rental Rate South-West 712,500 m % Upper South 1,152,500 m % South-East 193,600 m 2 Lower South 176,400 m % %

13 New supply New supply New completions , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 BUILDING AREA (m²) ZONE Konstruktorska BC 48,300 US Miasteczko Orange 43,700 SW Plac Unii 41,300 US Marynarska 12 40,000 US Wola Center 27,500 W Łopuszańska BP B 16,500 SW New supply Under construction 13

14 Demand Demand vs Net absorption 700, ,000 6% 5% Take-up structure 2013 New deals 500, , , , ,000 29% 60% Renewals Expansions Owner-occupied space Demand Net absorption Selected lease transactions 2013 TENANT AREA (m²) BUILDING ZONE BZ WBK 11,800 Atrium 1 City Centre-Core Johnson & Johnson 7,250 Wiśniowy BP SW Schneider Electric Polska 6,970 Park Rozwoju US Sanofi-Aventis 5,490 North Gate North Inoffice 1,640 Chmielna 134 City Centre-Fringe Becton Dickinson 770 Poleczki BP LS Activity by zones 78% 22% Average transaction size Warsaw 988 m 2 Central Non Central 668 m 2 1,139 m 2 14

15 Vacancy Vacancy rate Q Vacancy rate by zones Warsaw 11.7% Central 10.6% Non Central 12.2% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q Q Vacancy rate (%) 2005 Q % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Warsaw Central Non Central 15

16 Rents Rental rates LOCATION City Centre (Core & Fringe) AVEARGE RENTAL RATE AVERAGE EFFECTIVE RENTAL RATE Outside Centre West 16 North 15 City Centre- Core South-West Upper South East 12.5 City Centre- Fringe Lower South South-East

17 Office Market Regional Cities

18 Supply Tricity Szczecin Poznań Supply, space under construction and vacancy rates in 8 regional markets 700,000 35% Łódź Wrocław Katowice Kraków Lublin 600, , , , , , % 12.9% 13.4% 15.0% 16.5% 8.6% 28.0% 22.1% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Existing supply Space under construction Vacancy rate (%) 18

19 Demand Tenants activity 2013 Take-up structure ,000 90,000 80,000 7% 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 19% 13% 61% New deals Renewals Expansions Owner-occupied space 10,000 0 Kraków Wrocław Katowice Tricity Poznań Łódź Szczecin Lublin Selected lease transactions 2013 CITY TENANT AREA (m²) BUILDING Kraków AAC Lufthansa 8,500 Bonarka 4 Business Wrocław Redknee 3,340 Wrocławski Park Biznesu Kraków Genpact 3,200 Edison Tricity Geoban 2,800 Łużycka Office Centre Kraków Tesco 2,500 Kapelanka 42 Poznań Newell Rubbermaid 1,900 Andersia BC 19

20 Rental rates Average rental rates (EUR/m 2 per month) Kraków Wrocław Tricity Poznań Łódź Katowice Szczecin Lublin

21 Retail Market

22 Retail Market in Poland in 2013 Overview New retail supply by the regions 640 tys. m 2 of newly delivered retail space Extensions of existing shopping centres constituted 23% About 690,000 m 2 of retail space under construction, 130,000 m 2 of which are extensions of existing schemes 1% 2% 28% 69% Major agglomerations Cities 200, ,000 inhabitants Cities 100, ,000 inhabitants Cities <100,000 inhabitants 22

23 Retail Market in Poland in 2013 Agglomerations Warsaw and Upper Silesia are the biggest retail markets in Poland (its supply exceeds 1 million m 2 ) Vacancy rate in major agglomerations did not exceed 5% Regional markets Bydgoszcz has the largest amount of modern retail space, nearly 200,000 m 2 Vacancy rate in regional markets is more diversified and ranges from 3% to 6.2% Supply m 2 Vacancy Supply m 2 Vacancy 1,600,000 6% 250,000 7% 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 200, , ,000 50,000 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 0% 0 0% Supply Vacancy rate Supply Vacancy rate 23

24 Modern retail space in Poland (2013) Evolution of retail space in Poland m² million m² 900, , , , , , , , , Annual supply Total supply 24

25 Selected retail schemes opened in 2013 Gdynia Centrum Riviera (Wzgórze extension) 70,500 m 2 Poznań Poznań City Center 58,000 m 2 Warsaw Plac Unii City Shopping 15,500 m 2 Legend City Project Gliwice GLA (m 2 ) Europa Centralna 67,000 m 2 Katowice Galeria Katowicka 42,000 m 2 Kraków Galeria Bronowice 60,000 m 2 25

26 Main retail schemes planned to be delivered in 2014 Olsztyn Galeria Warmińska 41,300 m 2 Ostrołęka Galeria Bursztynowa 27,000 m 2 Kalisz Galeria Amber 33,500 m 2 Legend City Project Lublin GLA (m 2 ) Atrium Felicity 73,000 m 2 Tarasy Zamkowe 38,000 m 2 26

27 Density, market size and purchasing power Major agglomerations Density (m 2 per 1,000 inhabitants) Warsaw Upper Silesia Poznań Wrocław Tricity Kraków Łódź Szczecin ,000 26,000 30,000 34,000 38,000 42,000 46,000 Purchasing power (PLN per inhabitant) * Bubble size reflects the size of the market 27

28 Density, market size and purchasing power Regional markets 200, ,000 inhabitants Density (m 2 per 1,000 inhabitants) Lublin Bydgoszcz Toruń Białystok Radom Kielce Częstochowa ,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 30,000 * Bubble size reflects the size of the market Purchasing power (PLN per inhabitant) 28

29 Selected entries of new brands in 2013 BRAND CATEGORY ORIGIN LOCATION Louis Vuitton Fashion FR DH Vitkac / Warsaw Armani Jeans Fashion IT Plac Unii City Shopping / Warsaw Hollister Fashion US Galeria Mokotów / Warsaw Karl Lagerfeld Woman Fashion DE Celio Fashion FR Sports Direct Fashion UK Original Marines Tape a l oeil SAM 0-13 Children & Maternity Children & Maternity Children & Maternity IT FR GR Atrium Promenada / Warsaw Sadyba Best Mall, Arkadia, Warszawa Wileńska / Warsaw Park Handlowy Targówek / Warsaw Blue City / Warsaw Auchan / Piaseczno Galeria Renova (Galeria Rembielińska) / Warsaw H&M Home Home accessories SE Galeria Malta / Poznań 29

30 Land Market

31 Land Market in Poland in 2013 Overview Land prices stabilised in the majority of markets in 2013 Residential projects were the most popular type of development among investors (55% of transaction volume). For office and retail land investors dedicated 40% of their funds, while for industrial land 5% Approximately 85-90% of office and residential land transactions were in Warsaw Prices for the office development sites (EUR/m 2 GLA) Prices for the residential development sites (EUR/m 2 GLA) CITY / REGION MIN. MAX. AVERAGE Warsaw: City Centre Warsaw: Outside the City Centre Kraków Poznań Upper Silesia Tricity Wrocław CITY / REGION MIN. MAX. AVERAGE Warsaw: City Centre Warsaw: Outside the City Centre Kraków Łódź Poznań Upper Silesia Tricity Wrocław

32 Investment Market

33 Investment Market in Poland in 2013 Overview Total transaction volume approached EUR 3.3 billion, representing 22% y-o-y increase and exceeding pre-lehman levels of 2007 Poland again maintained its position as the leading commercial real estate market in the region in terms of overall investment volume and liquidity The market recorded in excess of 65 transactions. Regional cities accounted for approx. 55% of total value of transactions PRIME (NET INITIAL) YIELDS 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 33 Industrial Retail Office

34 Investment volume INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SECTOR (EUR m) INVESTMENT VOLUME (EUR m) 12% 3% 38% 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 47% Office Industrial Retail Hotel 0 34