Polish Commercial Property Markets 2012

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Jarosław Wilk
9 lat temu
Przeglądów:

1 Polish Commercial Property Markets 2012 Breakfast Seminar 27 November 2012 savills.pl

2 Agenda 1 Economy 2 Investment 3 Office Warsaw 4 Office regional cities 5 Retail

3 Economy: Poland still a green island GDP growth in: Euro zone: -0.6% EU27: -0.4% UK: 0.0% France: 0.1% Germany: 0.9% Czech Rep.: -1.6% Poland: 2.1% (Q year on year) Rzeczpospolita, Eurostat

4 Q1-Q3' Q1-Q3'12 million Investment: Poland vs other CEE 5,000 Office Retail Logistics Hotel 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Poland CEE excl. Poland RCA

5 EUR million Investment: Volumes 5,000 Offices Retail Logistics Hotels 94 4,000 3, , , (f) Savills

40 23 1,000 5 10 12 12 25 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

6 Investment: Office yields 9.5% Prime CBD Prime Mokotów Non-prime CBD Non-prime Mokotów 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% Savills

7 Investment: Prime retail yields 9.0% Warsaw Major regional cities Smaller cities 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% Savills

8 EUR/m² Investment: Offices 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Prima Court Finalized Under offer On the market Canal + Alma Zebra Tower Mokotowska Square Ujazdowskie 10 N21 WFC Crown Square North Gate Norway House Stratos Atrium Focus Park International Millenium Postępu Pałac Miasteczko Park II Młodziejowskich BTC Platinium BP Orange Marynarska Point Green Office Park Marszałkowska 76 1, % 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% Yield 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% Savills

Stratos Atrium Focus Park International Millenium Postępu Pałac Miasteczko Park II Młodziejowskich BTC Platinium BP

9 EUR/m² Investment: Retail 7,000 Finalized 6,000 Under offer Złote Tarasy 5,000 On the market Manufaktura 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % Galeria Tarnovia Echo Echo Pabianice Belchatów 9.0% Wzorcownia 8.5% Osowa Tęcza Twierdza Zamość Twierdza Kłodzko Biedronka 8.0% Pestka Alfa Centrum Magnolia Promenada Wars Sawa Junior Molo 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% Yield Galeria Mokotów 5.5% 5.0% Savills

0% Wzorcownia 8.5% Osowa Tęcza Twierdza Zamość Twierdza Kłodzko Biedronka 8.

10 m² Warsaw Office: Market performance Q ,250,000 Year-on-year change Stock (m²) Constructed (m²) Vacancy (%) 15% 1,000,000 12% 750,000 9% 500,000 6% 250,000 3% 0 Core Fringe East Lower South North South East South West Upper South West 0% Savils

11 Warsaw office: Market performance 2012 and beyond 350,000 Net absorption (m²) New supply (m²) Vacancy (%) 10% 280,000 8% 210,000 6% m 2 140,000 4% 70,000 2% (f) 2013(f) 2014(f) 0% Savills

10% 280,000 8% 210,000 6% m 2 140,000 4% 70,000 2% 0

12 m² Warsaw office: New supply 400,000 completed under construction building permit planned 350, , , , , ,000 50, City Centre Non Central Savills

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2012 2013

13 m² Regional cities office: Market performance 700, ,000 Stock (m²) Constructed (m²) Vacancy (%) Year-on-year change 14% 12% 500,000 10% 400,000 8% 300,000 6% 200,000 4% 100,000 2% 0 Katowice Kraków Poznań Tricity Łódź Wrocław Szczecin Lublin 0% Savills

12% 500,000 10% 400,000 8% 300,000 6% 200,000 4% 100,000 2% 0

14 Retail: Shopping centres are ageing investors strategies MATURITY Marketing & PR: EXTENSIVE Renovation: MAINTENANCE OF FACILITIES Efforts to attract retail tenants: MODERATE Rents: COMPETITIVE Lease term: MODERATE GROWTH Marketing & PR: MODERATE Renovation: MINOR MODIFICATIONS Efforts to attract retail tenants: MODERATE Rents: HIGH Lease term: LONG LAUNCH Marketing & PR: EXTENSIVE Renovation: NONE Efforts to attract retail tenants: EXTENSIVE Rents: HIGH Lease term: LONG DECLINE Marketing & PR: MODERATE & CHAOTIC Renovation: NEGLECT OR EXTENSIVE REFORMATTING Efforts to attract retail tenants: EXTENSIVE Rents: LOW Lease term: SHORT

MODERATE Rents: HIGH Lease term: LONG LAUNCH Marketing & PR: EXTENSIVE Renovation: NONE Efforts to attract retail tenants: EXTENSIVE Rents: HIGH Lease term:

15 m² Retail: New projects vs extensions New (m²) Extension (m²) 900, , , , , , Savills

450,000 1 2 8 11 9 300,000 150,000 0 2000 2001 2002

16 Retail: Shopping centres 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Generation of shopping centre I II III IV 10% 17% 31% 23% 35% 39% 57% 46% 29% RE process: RE-positioning (eg. Klif Warsaw, Blue City, Galeria Mokotów) RE-modelling (eg. Echo Kielce, Wzgórze Gdynia, Promenada) RE-commercialization (eg. Złote Tarasy, Arkadia, Galeria Kazimierz, Manufaktura) RE-branding (eg. Molo aka Piast Szczecin, Dom Mody Klif aka Klif) Savills

Klif Warsaw, Blue City, Galeria Mokotów) RE-modelling (eg.

17 Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS? Selected completed projects Manufaktura Łódź Stary Browar Poznań Wzorcownia Włocławek

18 Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS? Selected completed projects Bonarka Kraków Dukat Olsztyn Dekada Żyrardów

19 Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS? Selected ongoing projects Sukcesja Łódź Koneser Warsaw Art Norblin Warsaw

20 Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS? Selected ongoing projects Bawełnianka Bełchatów Alchemia Lublin Hala Koszyki Warsaw

21 SUKCESJA, Łódź Savills Retail Leading Agent

22 SUKCESJA, Łódź Savills Retail Leading Agent

23 SUKCESJA, Łódź

24 SUKCESJA, Łódź Q3 2014

25 SUKCESJA, Łódź Q3 2014

26 SUKCESJA, Łódź Q3 2014

27 SUKCESJA, Łódź Savills Retail Leading Agent Mixed-use project: shopping & entertainment centre and hotel; 3.2 ha site; 131,897 m² of usable area; 51,538 m² of GLA; 1,010 parking spaces; Helios cinema: 9 screens with 2,150 seats; LPP Group, Pure Jatomi 172 retail units; 160 rooms in business class hotel; Q3 2014

28 For more information: Brian Burgess Managing Director T: E: Renata Kusznierska Director, Retail Agency & Property Management T: E: Savills Sp. z o. o. ul. Złota Warszawa T: E: info@savills.pl

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