STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN PRODUCTION OF ANIMALS FOR SLAUGHTER IN POLAND IN ACROSS THE VOIVODESHIPS

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1 Journal of Agbusness and ural Development pissn eissn (44) 207, STUCTUAL CHANGES IN PODUCTION OF ANIMALS FOLAUGHTE IN POLAND IN ACOSS THE VOIVODESHIPS Agneszka Tłuczak Unwersytet Opolsk Abstract. The am of ths artcle s to analyze the changes n the structure of growth of anmals for slaughter producton n the Polsh regons n the years , accordng to the sector of anmals for slaughter usng the classcal shft share method. The study evaluates the rate of growth of volumes of anmals for slaughter producton. Furthermore, t dentfes and estmates the share of structural and regonal changes n the sze of the effect of the global (total anmals for slaughter producton n Poland) n the regonal breakdown. Keywords: anmals for slaughter, structural changes, Poland, vovodeshp INTODUCTION Agculture s a specfc economc sector where both the structure and volume of producton stctly depend on natural condtons n the regon concerned. The agcultural evoluton s also largely affected by eternal determnants, specfcally ncludng those developed under the Common Agcultural Polcy (CAP), fndngs of the World Trade Organzaton (WTO) and behavor of the raw mateal, product and captal markets (Kopńsk, 204). The Polsh meat market s heterogeneous and s among the key natonal agcultural markets. The producton of slaughter lvestock tends to fluctuate over tme, dependng on multple factors, ncludng meat consumpton patterns and volumes, buyng-n pces of slaughter lvestock, and the level of retal pces for meat and meat products. In the slaughter lvestock market, most of the processes are of peodcal nature, manly due to phases of the meat producton cycle. For Poland, the last twenty-fve years are a peod of multple changes resultng n a clear separaton of the slaughter lvestock market and the meat market whch ncludes the pork lvestock submarket, the bovne and veal lvestock submarket and several other submarkets. The essental purpose of ths paper s to analyze the changng volumes of slaughter lvestock n Polsh vovodeshps from 2004 to 204 by lvestock speces (bovne, poultry, pork) based on the classcal shft share analyss. Ths paper evaluates the growth rate of slaughter lvestock producton volumes. Also, t dentfes and estmates the share of structural and regonal factors n the global effect by vovodeshp. MATEIAL AND METHODS The slaughter lvestock producton structure was analyzed n all vovodeshps and compared to the development of slaughter lvestock producton on a countrywde bass. Acqured from the Local Data Bank (Bank Danych Lokalnych, BDL) of the Central Statstcal Offce (Główny Urząd Statystyczny, GUS), data used n ths study ncludes the slaughter lvestock producton dr Agneszka Tłuczak, Zakład Ekonomet Metod Iloścowych, Unwersytet Opolsk, ul. Ozmska 46a, Opole, Poland, e-mal: atluczak@un.opole.pl Copyght by Wydawnctwo Unwersytetu Przyrodnczego w Poznanu

2 Tłuczak, A. (207). Structural changes n producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n across the vovodeshps. J. Agbus. ural Dev., 2(44), volumes n specfc vovodeshps (r =,, 6) and the structural dstbuton thereof by slaughter lvestock speces ( =, 2, 3; bovne, pork and poultry lvestock). The study s based on data from 2004 and 204. The shft share analyss (SSA) s a structural and geographcal analyss ntroduced to the lterature, n ts classc form, by Dunn (960) and Perloff et al. (960). SSA allows to study and evaluate the development level of a specfc regon (vovodeshp) compared to the development of a reference area (country). The evoluton of the regonal development of a specfc aspect s assessed n the contet of analyzed structural changes n the aspects concerned (Antczak, 204; Grzybowska, 203; Mayor and Lopez, 2008). The classc shft share analyss evaluates the development of vaable TX quantfed as a compound of the absolute ncrement or development rate (Sucheck, 200; Trzpot et al., 203). The use of SSA n studyng the development of a specfc soco-economc aspect means decomposng the total change of the dentfed vaable nto three components (Tłuczak, 205): ( t t ) + w ( t t ) t = t + w () wth: r.(). ( ) r= = r.() r= = m = t = natonal (global) share effect; ( ) ( ) r= r= = e = t. t = r= sectoral (structural) share effect; r= = t t. = r= = ( ) u local r= (geographc, compettve, dfferentatng) growth factor n sector of regon r; w r.() = regonal weghts; r.. value of the analyzed vaable n regon r, n group of the cross-sectonal dstbuton n the ntal peod; value of the analyzed vaable n regon r, n group of the cross-sectonal dstbuton n the fnal peod. The result of rearrangng equaton () as follows (Szewczyk and Zygmunt, 20): ( t t ) + w ( t t ) t t = w (2) r.(). s the net regonal growth (t t ) defned as the dfference between the regonal and the natonal growth rate. The relatonshp epressed by equaton (2) s referred to as structural and geographc equaton, and the geographc dstbuton of the regonal average growth rate s ecess over natonal growth s decomposed nto two effects: s = w t t, whch s r.() the structural effect: ( ) r the weghted athmetc mean of devatons between the average growth rate n specfc sectors and the natonal growth rate, and nforms that the regons are dfferentated by devatons n the dstbuton; r.() the geographc effect: g = w ( t t ) r. r.().., defned as the weghted athmetc mean of regonal devatons attbutng the categoes of the cross-sectonal qualtatve cteon to correspondng regons. CHANGES TO THE SLAUGHTE LIVESTOCK PODUCTION STUCTUE IN POLAND When compang the growth/declne rates of slaughter lvestock producton n specfc vovodeshps from 2004 to 204 to the natonal average growth of lvestock producton (whch s 40%), some regons may be dentfed that grew faster than the countrywde rate, namely the Lubuske, Mazowecke, Śląske, Śwętokrzyske and Pomorske vovodeshps. In other vovodeshps, the recorded development rates of slaughter lvestock The calculatons were performed wth the use of regonal weghts (meanng the share of the analyzed vaable), ndvdual cross-regonal growth rates, and ncrements of lvestock producton volumes, n order to calculate the average values and to determne the total, structural and geographc effect

3 Tłuczak, A. (207). Structural changes n producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n across the vovodeshps. J. Agbus. ural Dev., 2(44), % 20% 00% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% Dolnośląske Kujawsko-Pomorske Lubelske Lubuske Łódzke Małopolske Mazowecke Opolske Podkarpacke Podlaske Pomorske Śląske Śwętokrzyske Warmńsko-Mazurske Welkopolske Zachodnopomorske Fg.. The rate of changes n the value of anmals for slaughter producton n the Polsh vovodeshps n 204 compared to 2004 (%) Source: own elaboraton. ys.. Tempo zman wartośc produkcj żywca rzeźnego w województwach Polsk w 204 r. w porównanu z 2004 r. (%) Źródło: opracowane własne. producton were below the natonwde level (Fg. ). The hghest growth of slaughter lvestock producton was recorded n the Pomorske vovodeshp. In ths case, the reason for the general growth was the more than three-fold ncrease n beef producton and the poultry producton volume whch grew by as much as nne tmes (Fg. ). On a countrywde bass, the poultry lvestock producton grew by around 73% from 2004 to 204 as a consequence of favorable economc condtons and an assured outlet n EU countes 2. The bovne lvestock market turned out be the most stable one wth a producton development rate of.3%. In turn, the Dolnośląske vovodeshp recorded the bggest declne n lvestock producton volumes ( 4.2%) among all regons due to decrease n pork producton by nearly 7%. 2 Around 40% of the domestc poultry meat producton s eported. The poultry sector has the greatest share n total eports of the food ndustry. Smlarly, around 40% of egg producton s eported. Poultry meat and eggs are eported manly to EU countes, specfcally ncludng the Netherlands and Germany. Table. The average rate of change n anmals for slaughters producton by sector n (%) Tabela. Przecętne tempo zman produkcj żywca rzeźnego według sektora w latach (%) Anmals for slaughter Żywec rzeźny ate of change Tempo zman Cattle Wołowy.3% Pgs for slaughter Weprzowy 39.7% Poultry Drobowy 73.4% Źródło: opracowane własne. Source: own elaboraton. In each vovodeshp, the development of slaughter lvestock producton volumes could be caused by the changng producton volumes of each lvestock speces and by the development of the nternal compettve stuaton n the area concerned (geographc effects). In the Pomorske vovodeshp, the ncrease n slaughter 465

4 Tłuczak, A. (207). Structural changes n producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n across the vovodeshps. J. Agbus. ural Dev., 2(44), Table 2. Analyss of the structural and compettve changes n the sze of producton of the anmals for slaughters n Poland by vovodeshp n Tabela 2. Analza strukturalno-geografczna zman welkośc produkcj żywca rzeźnego w Polsce według województw w okrese Vovodeshp Województwo Average rate Średne tempo total całkowty Effect Efekt structural strukturalny compettve geografczny Dolnośląske 4.2% 75% 4% 6% Kujawsko-Pomorske 7.6% 6% 8% % Lubelske 7.2% 5% 7% 2% Lubuske 65.3% 60% 65% 6% Łódzke 40.6% 45% 4% 4% Małopolske 9.2% 3% 9% 22% Mazowecke 06.8% 70% 07% 63% Opolske 9.7% 6% 20% 4% Podkarpacke 0.7% 9% % 30% Podlaske 3.7% 23% 32% 9% Pomorske 9.0% 220% 9% 0% Śląske 66.3% 88% 66% 22% Śwętokrzyske 68.0% 98% 68% 30% Warmńsko-Mazurske 34.9% 9% 35% 26% Welkopolske 8.4% 6% 8% 2% Zachodnopomorske 46.3% 44% 46% 2% Source: own elaboraton. Źródło: opracowane własne. lvestock producton volume by 9% (.e. around 220% above the natonal average growth rate) was caused by structural changes (wth a share of 9%) and by nternal developments related to compettveness aganst other regons (wth a share of 0%). In the Dolnośląske vovodeshp, the stuaton was reversed. The less-thanaverage (-75%) ncrease n slaughter lvestock producton volume was caused pmaly by changes related to the compettveness of lvestock producton. The Masovan vovodeshp epeenced substantal postve developments caused by favorable changes n the regonal structure of slaughter lvestock (07%). In that case, the geographc factor also played a major role (63%). All vovodeshps, ecept for the Dolnośląske vovodeshp, epeenced postve developments n lvestock producton volumes resultng from changes n the producton structure. Meanwhle, the geographc (compettveness) factor had the lowest mpact n the Łódzke vovodeshp. Table 3 and Fgure 2 show the classfcaton of Polsh vovodeshps by structural and geographc (compettve) effects. Three groups were dentfed because of the absence of negatve structural effects and of postve compettve effects. The frst group s composed of vovodeshps where structural changes n slaughter lvestock producton had a postve effect on the ncrease of the total producton volume of slaughter lvestock (Pomorske, Mazowecke, Śwętokrzyske, Śląske, Łódzke). Compared to other regons, these vovodeshps demonstrate hgher growth dynamcs of 466

5 Tłuczak, A. (207). Structural changes n producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n across the vovodeshps. J. Agbus. ural Dev., 2(44), Table 3. Classfcaton of Polsh vovodeshps by postve and negatve aggregated effects Tabela 3. Klasyfkacja województw ze względu na pozytywne negatywne efekty zman Effects Efekty Structural (+) compettve (+) Strukturalny (+) konkurencyjny (+) Structural (+) compettve ( ) Strukturalny (+) konkurencyjny ( ) Structural ( ) compettve ( ) Strukturalny ( ) konkurencyjny ( ) Vovodeshps Województwa Pomorske, Mazowecke, Śwętokrzyske, Śląske, Łódzke Zachodnopomorske, Lubuske, Podlaske, Kujawsko-Pomorske, Welkopolske, Lubelske, Małopolske, Warmńsko-Mazurske, Podkarpacke Number of vovodeshps Lczba województw Dolnośląske 5 0 Source: own elaboraton. Źródło: opracowane własne..2.0 pomorske Compettve effects Efekty geografczne mazowecke łódzke śwętokrzyske welkopolske lubelske śląske zachodnopomorske małopolske lubuske podlaske opolske kujawsko-pomorske warmńsko-mazurske podkarpacke dolnośląske Structural effects Efekty strukturalne Fg. 2. The structural and compettve effects of the rate of producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n Source: own elaboraton. ys. 2. Efekty strukturalne geografczne tempa zman produkcj żywca rzeźnego w Polsce w latach Źródło: opracowane własne. slaughter lvestock producton. The Pomorske vovodeshp stands out from ths group as a regon wth etremely strong postve effects, both n structural and compettve terms. As regards the second group, all of the 0 ncluded vovodeshps demonstrate a postve value of the structural effect. Negatve values of 467

6 Tłuczak, A. (207). Structural changes n producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n across the vovodeshps. J. Agbus. ural Dev., 2(44), compettve (geographc) effects ndcate that changes nsde the regons, related to ganng a compettve edge over other vovodeshps, had an adverse mpact on the development of slaughter lvestock producton volumes n these regons. In ths group, the most benefcal developments took place n the Lubuske vovodeshp: the growth rate of slaughter lvestock producton was by 59.5% hgher than the natonwde average, and was dven to a mnmum etent by unfavorable changes n the regonal structure of slaughter lvestock producton ( 5.7%). Ths group also ncludes two other vovodeshps (Małopolske and Podkarpacke) where negatve rates (compared to the natonwde average development rate) of slaughter lvestock producton growth were recorded. These changes were manly caused by sgnfcant unfavorable nternal developments related to compettveness over other regons. SUMMAY Ths paper focused on analyzng the changes to the slaughter lvestock producton structure. As the analyss of slaughter lvestock producton presented n ths paper s defntely not ehaustve, what also should be taken nto account s the estence of mult-drectonal spatal relatonshps between the regons concerned. Ths s because each of the analyzed regons has specfc features whch, n turn, affect the regonal potental and the nature of local agcultural actvtes. Wth the potental estng n the regon, the ght oentaton of agcultural producton may result n hgh ncomes for farmers. Often costly, producton reoentaton could be a way to avod addtonal ependture. Accordng to studes, the dfferences n development rates of the analyzed slaughter lvestock producton (by speces) n specfc vovodeshps are pmaly caused by the compettve poston of the regon concerned, whle the changes n the slaughter lvestock producton structure are a factor of mnor mportance. The Pomorske and Dolnośląske vovodeshps clearly stand out from the group under consderaton. The frst one epeenced a growth rate of slaughter lvestock producton above the average countrywde rate. Ths was caused by favorable changes n the slaughter lvestock producton structure and by the evolvng compettve poston of ths vovodeshp over other regons. Meanwhle, the Dolnośląske vovodeshp epeenced the lowest development rate compared to the countrywde average fgures. Based on the results, t may be concluded that the volume and nature of slaughter lvestock producton s largely affected by the general condton of the natonal agculture sector. Ths stuaton broadly depends on the pncples adopted under the Common Agcultural Polcy whch s applcable to all member countes. EFEENCES Antczak, E. (204). Analza zaneczyszczena powetrza w Polsce z wykorzystanem przestrzennej dynamcznej metody przesunęć udzałów. Ekon. Środ., 2(49), Dunn, E. S. (960). A Statstcal and Analytcal Technque for egonal Analyss. Paper. Proceed. egon. Sc. Assoc., 6, Grzybowska, B. (203). Przestrzenna koncentracja potencjału nnowacyjnego w przemyśle spożywczym. ocz. Ekon. oln. ozw. Obsz. Wej., 00(2), Kopńsk, J. (204). Trendy zman głównych kerunków produkcj zwerzęcej w Polsce w okrese członkostwa w UE. Prace Nauk. Unw. Ekon. Wroc., 36, Mayor, M., Lopez, A. J. (2008). Spatal shft-share analyss versus spatal flteng: an applcaton to Spansh employment data. Empr. Econ., 34(), Perloff, H. S., Dunn, E. S., Lampard, E. E., Muth,. F. (960) egons, resources and economc growth. Baltmore: Johns Hopkns Press. Sucheck, B. (Ed.). (200). Ekonometa przestrzenna. Metody modele analzy danych przestrzennych. Warszawa: C. H. Beck. Szewczyk, M., Zygmunt, A. (20). Opolske Vovodshp: perspectves of the mnng and quarryng sector. In: K. Malk (Ed.), egonal and local development: Captals and dvers (p ). Katowce Opole: Faculty Economy and Management of the Opole Unversty of Technology, Self-Government of the Opole Vovodeshp, Commttee of Spatal Economy and egonal Plannng of the Polsh Academy of Scences, Commttee Organzaton and Management Scences of the Polsh Academy of Scences. Tłuczak, A. (205). Przestrzenna metoda przesunęć udzałów w ocene zróżncowana produkcj zwerzęcej w Polsce. Metody Iloś. Bad. Ekon., XVI(4), Trzpot, G., Ojrzyńska, A., Szołtysek, J., Twaróg, S. (203). Wykorzystane shft share analyss w opse zman struktury honorowych dawców krw w Polsce. Welowymarowe modelowane analza ryzyka (p ). Katowce: UE Katowce

7 Tłuczak, A. (207). Structural changes n producton of anmals for slaughter n Poland n across the vovodeshps. J. Agbus. ural Dev., 2(44), ZMIANY STUKTUALNE W PODUKCJI ŻYWCA ZEŹNEGO W POLSCE W LATACH W PZEKOJU WOJEWÓDZTW Streszczene. Celem artykułu jest określene zman struktury oraz tempa wzrostu produkcj żywca rzeźnego w województwach Polsk w latach według gatunków, z zastosowanem klasycznej metody przesunęć udzałów. Ponadto zdentyfkowano oszacowano udzał czynnków strukturalnych oraz regonalnych w welkośc efektu globalnego (produkcj żywca rzeźnego w Polsce ogółem) w przekroju województw. Na podstawe wynków badań wykazano, że zróżncowane tempa zman produkcj żywca rzeźnego zwązane jest przede wszystkm z pozycją konkurencyjną regonu, a w mnejszym stopnu zależne od zman struktury produkcj. Słowa kluczowe: produkcja żywca rzeźnego, zmany strukturalne, Polska, województwa Accepted for pnt Zaakceptowano do druku: