DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF WARSAW SUBURBAN ZONE COMMUNES DEMOGRAFICZNE UWARUNKOWANIA ROZWOJU GMIN STREFY PODMIEJSKIEJ WARSZAWY

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1 STOWARZYSZENIE EKONOMISTÓW ROLNICTWA I AGROBIZNESU Rocznk Naukowe tom XIV zeszyt Iwona Pomanek Warsaw Unversty of Lfe Scences SGGW, Poland DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF WARSAW SUBURBAN ZONE COMMUNES DEMOGRAFICZNE UWARUNKOWANIA ROZWOJU GMIN STREFY PODMIEJSKIEJ WARSZAWY Key words: demographcs, local development, Warsaw suburban zone Słowa kluczowe: demografa, rozwój lokalny, strefa podmejska Warszawy Abstract. The paper presents characterstcs of selected demographc factors of development of 30 communes (urbanrural and rural) located n the suburban zone of Warsaw. The level of demographc development of the communes was determned by Hellwg s development measure. The analyses revealed sgnfcant dfferences n the demographc potental of the suburban zone communes, whch s one of the most mportant determnants of local and over-local development. The proxmty of Warsaw does not guarantee a favourable demographc structure or exstence of favourable trends n populaton growth and mgraton. Introducton A specal feature of the populaton phenomena n terms of demography s ther unque, bologcal and socal nature as well as determnants. Basc events, due to reproducton of populaton - brths and deaths are bologcal events. The bologcal mechansm s the essence of two man structural features of populaton gender and age [Okólsk 2005]. An age structure of nhabtants of a commune provdes nformaton about a potental for ts further growth or stagnaton. However, an analyss of populaton by age and gender s basc for evaluaton of the demographc potental, allowng predcton of future trends of natalty and mortalty. It s essental that populaton processes are taken nto account at a local level, especally durng plannng nvestments n nfrastructure transport lnks, roads, sewers, schools, health facltes, etc. [Czapewsk 2010]. These result n popularty of demographc ssues, whch are used wdely n constructon of socoeconomc development measures usng varous statstcal methods by many authors [Gralak 2005, Sobala-Gwosdz 2005, Babuchowska, Ksel 2006, Heffner, Stanny 2007, Wojewódzka 2007, Drejerska 2009, Pomanek 2010]. Materals and methods The am of the paper s to characterze demographc determnants of development of 30 communes (urban-rural and rural) located n the suburban zone of Warsaw. The communes were charactersed wth the fgures for the years 2004 and 2010, obtaned from the Local Data Bank (LDB) of the Polsh Central Statstcal Offce (CSO). The paper has been performed wthn studes n the project enttled Economc and socal determnants of rural areas development of the Mazova regon n the suburban and external zone of Warsaw, No: N N Some potental features, mportant n terms of content, could not be ncluded n a group of analyzed varables, as the CSO LDB does not collect some data on the level of communes (LAU 2), such as a educaton level of nhabtants or fertlty of women (except natonal censuses). The level of development was determned wth a taxonomc measure [Hellwg 1968]. Prelmnary data analyss ncluded elmnaton of quas-constant varables usng coeffcent of varaton. As the crtcal value there was adopted V * = Then a strength of assocaton between other varables was examned, usng Pearson correlaton coeffcent. For all varables, a correlaton matrx was constructed. The crtcal value of correlaton coeffcent was adopted as r * = 0,75. As a result, a set of fve varables was receved (Tab. 1). Based on the derved varables, synthetc ndcators were calculated whch allowed to dvde communes nto four classes dffer n the level of demographc development. The taxonomc measure of

2 232 Iwona Pomanek Table 1. Dagnostc varables accepted n the research Tabela 1. Zmenne dagnostyczne przyjęte w badanach Symbol/ Dagnostc varable/zmenna badana Index X 1 populaton per 1 km 2 (populaton densty)/gęstość zaludnena na 1 km 2 X 2 brth rate per 1,000 populaton/lczba urodzeń na 1000 meszkańców X 3 balance of nternatonal mgraton n persons per 1,000 nhabtants/ saldo mgracj wewnętrznych na 1000 meszkańców X 4 balance of nternatonal mgraton n persons per 1,000 nhabtants/ saldo mgracj zagrancznych na 1000 meszkańców X 5 retrement age populaton per 100 nhabtants n pre-workng age/ludność w weku poprodukcyjnym na 100 meszkańców w weku przedprodukcyjnym Source: own study Źródło: opracowane własne Type of varable/ Rodzaj zmennej stmulant/ stymulanta destmulant/ destymulanta d takes values from the nterval [0, 1]. The more characterstcs of a commune are smlar to the pattern, the hgher s ts development level, and the more remote the lower. For the classfcaton of communes accordng to the level of development, two parameters of the taxonomc measure were used: arthmetc mean and standard devaton. It dentfed the followng class ntervals: class 1 (hgh development level) d > d + sd class 2 (medum development level) d < d d + sd class 3 (low development level) d sd < d d class 4 (very low development level) d d sd where: d value of Hellwg s development measure for a commune, d arthmetc mean of d, S d standard devaton of d. Calculatons and analyses were done wth: Mcrosoft Offce Excel 2010 and MapInfo Professonal Demographc characterstcs of the communes Informaton on populaton densty per 1 km 2 of a commune proves ts level of urbanzaton and attractveness of settlement. In 2010, the hghest populaton densty characterzed Mchałowce (481 persons per km 2 ) and Raszyn (464 persons per km 2 ). The largest ncrease n the ndex n 2010 compared wth 2004 was regstered n Lesznowola (app. 66 people to a level 286 persons per km 2 ), Jabłonna (app. 63 people to a level 224 persons per km 2 ) and Mchałowce (app. 49 persons/km 2 ). The lowest populaton densty per 1 km 2 characterzed Kampnos (50 persons per km 2 ) and Puszcza Marańska (59 persons per km 2 ). The average value of the ndex rose from 134 n 2004 to 150 n Populaton densty n rural areas has been ncreasng because of the expense of the largest urban agglomeratons, n ths case Warsaw. Ths s partcularly evdent on the outskrts of major metropoltan areas, where just beyond the admnstratve boundares of the cty are settlng out people connected professonally wth the urban center [Rakowska 2011]. In 2004, n three rural communes (Mńsk Mazoweck, Puszcza Marańska and Sochaczew) men slghtly outnumbered women (99 women/100 men). In 2010, the stuaton mproved and unfavorable value of the ndex was held only n Sochaczew. In the analyzed years, n Neporęt, Prażmów, Puszcza Marańska and Radzejowce, the number of women per 100 men ncreased by 3, whle n Celestynów, Izabeln, Jaktorów, Nadarzyn, Pomechówek and Serock number of women per 100 men decreased by 1. The average value of the examned communes n the analyzed perod was 104. Numercal superorty of women over men ponts to the mmgraton nature of the suburban communes, snce under the law of Ravensten n streams of mgrant women predomnate [Corbett 2012, Janck 2007]. The emgraton nature and the shortage of women are characterstc for perpheral areas [Pomanek 2009]. In 2004, the lowest brth rate characterzed Puszcza Marańska (-5.2). Although n 2010, ths rato mproved (to -3.8), t was stll the lowest among the examned communes. The hghest values of brth rate n 2004 were observed n Radzejowce (3.0) and Sochaczew (3.5), whle n 2010 n Jabłonna (9.0) and Lesznowola (8.9). In the analyzed years the most sgnfcant mprovement n populaton growth occurred n Welszew (8.1 from -2.9 to 5.2), as well as n Jabłonna, Lesznowola and Żaba Wola. The attractveness of settlement s also a result of a postve balance of mgraton. In 28 communes n the analyzed years a postve balance of nternal mgraton remaned. Only Celestynów and Zakroczym

3 233 were exceptons n In 2004, the hghest balance characterzed Jabłonna (760), Lesznowola (566) and Stare Babce (393). In 2010, n relaton to 2004, the largest reducton occurred n Jabłonna (-272) and Stare Babce (-163). The largest ncrease was recorded n the balance of Lesznowola (229) and Wązowna (224). In 2010 the largest nternal mgraton balance characterzed Lesznowola (795), Jabłonna (488) and Wązowna (380). The average value of the ndex for 30 communes amounted to 182 persons (n 2010) n relaton to 175 persons n Moreover, the hghest nternatonal mgraton balance n 2004 characterzed Raszyn (22), whle n 2010 Lesznowola (11). The negatve balance was recorded only n 2010 n Puszcza Marańska, Nadarzyn and Radzejowce. Another ndcator sgnfcantly affectng the soco-economc stuaton of a terrtoral unt s the age dependency rato, calculated as a number of non-workng age populaton per 100 persons of workng age. The soco-economc stuaton of a terrtoral unt s the most favorable, the lower s the rato value. In 2004, n 9 communes the rato value exceeded 60 persons (even 66 n Kampnos), whle n only 1 commune t remaned at less than 50 people (Lesznowola). The average for the examned communes was 59 people. In 2010, the stuaton mproved, and only n Kampnos the rato value slghtly exceeded 60. In Welszew and Jabłonna the rato amounted to less than 50 people. The average for the 30 communes amounted to 54 persons of non-workng age per 100 persons of workng age. In the studed years, the most sgnfcant mprovement was notced n Radzejowce (decrease by 8 people). Furthermore, the analyss of retrement age populaton per 100 nhabtants n pre-workng age proves that the suburban communtes are agng. Celestynów and Izabeln, characterzed by an average brth rate, the rato value ncreased by 22 and 17 people respectvely n the examned years, whch n the case of Izabeln was evdenced by the nflow of mmgrant people of retrement age from Warsaw, whle n the case of Celestynów (wth a negatve *mgraton balance) of ncreasng partcpaton rate of retrement aged persons n the populaton. In 2004, the largest rato value was recorded n Puszcza Marańska (84), Pomechówek (76) and Mchałowce (75), whle the lowest (and therefore the best) n Lesznowola (47) and Jabłonna (49). In 2010, the hghest number of populaton of retrement age per 100 persons n pre-workng age characterzed also Puszcza Marańska (90), Mchałowce (89) and Pomechówek (87), whle the lowest agan Lesznowola (48) and Jabłonna (49). The average rato value for 30 communes amounted to 63 n 2004 and ncreased to 72 n Demographc development level of the communes Based on the fve varables (Tab. 1) the taxonomc measure was constructed, whch allows dvdng the communes nto four classes of varyng levels of development. The group of hgh development level conssts of two communes Lesznowola and Jabłonna, whle the weakest group has the three muncpaltes: Pomechówek, Radzejowce and Puszcza Marańska. The numbers of communes n other groups amounted to 13 and 12 muncpaltes. Full rankng was shown n table 2. Table 2. Rankng of the communes regardng Hellwg s measure of development Tabela 2. Rankng badanych gmn pod względem pozomu rozwoju wg mary rozwoju Hellwga Rank/ Mejsce Commune/ Gmna Measure value/ Wartość mernka Class of development/ Klasa rozwoju 1 Lesznowola Jabłonna Mchałowce Wązowna Serock Halnów Prażmów Neporęt Raszyn Welszew Nadarzyn Stare Babce Jaktorów Mńsk Mazoweck Żaba Wola Izabeln Dębe Welke Klembów Celestynów Sochaczew Leszno Tarczyn Baranów Czosnów Teresn Zakroczym Kampnos Pomechówek Radzejowce Puszcza Marańska Source: own study Źródło: opracowane własne

4 234 Iwona Pomanek classes of development/ klasy rozwoju Fgure 1. Warsaw suburban zone communes dvded nto 4 classes of Hellwg s measure of development Rysunek 1. Gmny strefy podmejskej Warszawy w podzale na 4 klasy mary rozwoju Hellwga Source: own study based on the CSO data Źródło: opracowane własne na podstawe danych GUS A choropleth map shows spatal dstrbuton of 30 communes of Warsaw suburban zone accordng to the 4 classes of Hellwg s measure of demographc development (Fg. 1). The best two communes Lesznowola and Jabłonna had the hghest rates of brth and mgraton, resultng n hgh populaton densty and wth the lowest values of the age dependency rato, calculated as a number of non-workng age populaton per 100 persons of workng age and partcpaton rate of retrement aged persons n the populaton. Basng on these values t can be concluded that these two communes have the hghest demographc potental for local development. Lesznowola provdes more workng places than any other of 30 analysed commune, as accordng to the CSO data relaton of people arrvng to Lesznowola to work n comparson to people leavng (most of them workng n Warsaw) amounted to 2.30 (almost four tmes more that the average for the sample) n It proves attractveness of ths commune for mgrants and t can be expected that postve mgraton trends wll reman at smlar levels n future. The weakest class ncluded three communes: Pomechówek, Radzejowce, and Puszcza Marańska. All of them have been affected by ageng populaton structure, low or negatve brth rate, and low or decreasng mgraton rate. These relatvely unfavorable demographc factors may result n slowng local development n these communtes. Local governments should take up some actons leadng to ncrease of attractveness of settlement especally for young couples wth chldren, provdng access to affordable housng, chld care and early educaton as well as convenent connectons for commutng to the Warsaw labour market. Conclusons As t s shown by numerous researches [Wojewodzka 2007, Rosner 2007], Mazovan Vovodeshp s characterzed by strong nternal dfferentaton n terms of soco-economc development, whereas Warsaw as the captal cty s a drvng force for the whole regon. However, the studes have shown sgnfcant dfferences n the demographc potental of the suburban zone communes, whch s one of the most mportant determnants of local and over-local development. The proxmty of Warsaw does not guarantee a favorable demographc structure. The man problem at the European, natonal and local levels concerns an ageng populaton. Local authortes should take up actons to mprove the demographc structure of communes, on the one hand creatng ncentves to settle down for young and workng populaton of Warsaw. These step can be for example n the form of favourable housng condtons, access to market servces and educaton, convenent commutng optons enablng work n Warsaw as well as for nvestors n order to extend the employment offer n the local market. Above all, these ssues concern communes of negatve or low rate of brths (Puszcza Marańska, Radzejowce, Leszno), negatve or low mgraton rate (Zakroczym, Celestynów, Baranów, Teresn) and dsadvantageous demographc structure (Puszcza Marańska, Pomechówek, Raszyn, Radzejowce). Bblography Babuchowska K., Ksel R. 2006: Wpływ samorządu gmnnego na lokalny rozwój gospodarczy na przykładze gmn województwa warmńsko-mazurskego. Acta Sc. Pol. Oeconoma, 5(2), Warszawa. Corbett J. 1885: Ernest George Ravensten: The Laws of Mgraton. Center for Spatally Integrated Socal Scence. [ access Czapewsk K. 2010: Koncepcja wejskch obszarów sukcesu społeczno-gospodarczego ch rozpoznane w województwe mazoweckm. Studa Obszarów Wejskch, t. XXII, Warszawa, 91. Drejerska N. 2009: Bezroboce meszkańców ws ujęce modelowe na podstawe badań własnych. Acta Sc. Pol. Oeconoma, 8(2), Warszawa, Gralak A. 2005: Pozom konkurencyjnośc wschodnch regonów Polsk na tle zróżncowań mędzyregonalnych. Acta Sc. Pol. Oeconoma, 4(1), Warszawa.

5 235 Heffner K., Stanny M. 2007: Zróżncowane gmn wejskch ze względu na pozom rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego [n:] Zróżncowane pozomu rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego obszarów wejskch a zróżncowane dynamk przeman (ed. A. Rosner). IRWR PAN, Warszawa. Hellwg Z. 1968: Zastosowane metody taksonomcznej do typologcznego podzału krajów ze względu na pozom rozwoju strukturę kwalfkowanych kadr. Przegląd Statystyczny, 4. Janck W. 2007: Przegląd teor mgracj ludnośc. Annales Unverstats Marae Cure-Skłodowska, Lubln-Polona, vol. LXII/14, Secto B, 297. Okólsk M. 2005: Demografa. Wydawnctwo Naukowe SCHOLAR, Warszawa, 9. Pomanek I. 2009: Społeczno-ekonomczne uwarunkowana rozwoju przedsęborczośc na obszarach wejskch (na przykładze województwa warmńsko-mazurskego). Maszynops rozprawy doktorskej, Wydzał Nauk Ekonomcznych SGGW w Warszawe. Pomanek I. 2010: Pozom rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego obszarów wejskch województwa warmńskomazurskego. Acta Sc. Pol. Oeconoma, 9(3), Rakowska J. 2011: Zmany demografczne na obszarach wejskch Polsk. Weś Jutra, 11/12, 7. Rosner A. (ed.). 2007: Zróżncowane pozomu rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego obszarów wejskch a zróżncowane dynamk przeman. IRWR PAN, Warszawa. Sobala-Gwosdz A. 2005: Ośrodk wzrostu obszary stagnacj w województwe podkarpackm. Instytut Geograf Gospodark Przestrzennej Unwersytetu Jagellońskego, Kraków. Wojewódzka A. 2007: Klasyfkacja gmn mejsko-wejskch województwa mazoweckego według pozomu rozwoju. [n:] Gospodarka lokalna w teor praktyce (ed. D. Strahl). Prace Naukowe AE Wrocław, 1161, Wyd. AE Wrocław, Wrocław. Streszczene W artykule przedstawono charakterystykę wybranych uwarunkowań demografcznych rozwoju 30 gmn (mejsko-wejskch wejskch) zlokalzowanych w strefe podmejskej Warszawy. Do określena pozomu rozwoju demografcznego gmn wykorzystano mernk rozwoju Hellwga. Przeprowadzone analzy wykazały stotne różnce w pozome potencjału demografcznego gmn strefy podmejskej, będącego jedną z najważnejszych determnant rozwoju lokalnego ponadlokalnego. Blskość Warszawy ne gwarantuje bowem korzystnej struktury demografcznej an zastnena bądź utrzymana korzystnych tendencj w zakrese przyrostu naturalnego lub mgracj. Correspondence address: Dr Iwona Pomanek Warsaw Unversty of Lfe Scences SGGW Faculty of Economc Scences Department of European Polcy, Publc Fnance and Marketng Nowoursynowska Str Warsaw, Poland e-mal: wona_pomanek@sggw.pl