SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES

Transkrypt

1 Poland Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES Q1 2018

2 Polska Rynek handlowy CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 3 STOCK AND SUPPLY 4 DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE RENTAL RATES AND OTHER LEASE CONDITIONS 8 TRENDS 9 6

3 Polska Poland Rynek Retail market handlowy INTRODUCTION WARSZAWA Boom na rynku centrów handlowych w aglomeracji warszawskiej trwa. W okresie lipiec 2016-czerwiec 2017 oddano tu łącznie 63 tys. m² nowej powierzchni. Co ciekawe, na podaż złożyły się zarówno centra zlokalizowane w miastach satelickich (Galeria Wołomin, Gondola Legionowo, Galeria Grodova Grodzisk Mazowiecki), jak i rozbudowy istniejących już w stolicy obiektów (Atrium Promenada, PH IKEA Targówek). Aglomeracja warszawska z 1,5 mln m² powierzchni najmu brutto (GLA) w 47 centrach, przy nasyceniu 588 m²/1 000 mieszkańców jest największym i Although najbardziej the zróżnicowanym largest retail investments rynkiem handlowym in 2017 w were Polsce. completed Jedno in centrum the main handlowe Polish agglomerations, obsługuje średnio ten regional markets osób. supporting the total of over 2.3 million consumers are arousing interest of Działalność investors, developers deweloperska and retail w stolicy chains. jest There nadal are silna, currently w chwili 70 shopping obecnej centres buduje się in the 173 analysed tys. m² powierzchni, cities, and on w the tym average trzy nowe one centre centra supports handlowe 33,000 Galeria potential Młociny customers. (70 tys. m²), Most Galeria of them Północna are (64 in Częstochowa tys. m²) i Nowa and Stacja Toruń, Pruszków and the least (27 are tys. m²). Galeria in Rzeszów Młociny and jest Lublin. projektem położonym w północnej części Warszawy, w którym swoje sklepy Based on w 2019 GfK Polonia s roku otworzą data on m.in. the Grupa purchasing Inditex, H&M, power Van of regional Graaf, C&A, city residents Intermarche, (in most a także cases kino above Cinema3D the national oraz average), fitness Calypso. it can be Galeria estimated Północna that these otworzy markets się have w the trzecim total kwartale value of br. na approximately warszawskiej PLN Białołęce 70 billion i przyniesie per year. On szereg the debiutów average, the rynkowych, purchasing w tym power pierwszy of a regional w Polsce city salon inhabitant Hamleys ranges (art. between dla dzieci), PLN sklepy 28,000 Melon and 30,000 Fashion annually. Group Statistically, (moda), with czy approximately nowy koncept 2 firmy million KappAhl m² of the - existing Newbie space, (art. dla there niemowląt). are PLN Nowa 35,000 Stacja annually Pruszków, per square obiekt, metre którego of shopping otwarcie centre planowane in these locations jest na przełom the most 2017 in Częstochowa i 2018 roku, oferować and Olsztyn, będzie and multipleks the least in Multikino, Rzeszów supermarket and Lublin. Carrefour, 2017 in regional sklepy markets odzieżowe was na the czele year z H&M oraz punkty of expansions, usługowe modernisations i gastronomiczne. and recommercialisations, as well as investment Plany na lata zakładają dostarczenie na purchases, including changes of ownership rynek dalszych 150 tys. m² powierzchni w centrach in Galeria Słoneczna in Radom, Alfa in Białystok handlowych, głównie poprzez rozbudowy and Toruń Plaza. This shows attractiveness istniejących obiektów oraz centra of regional cities and its potential for further development. NUMBER OF REGIONAL CITIES 10 ANNUAL AVERAGE PURCHASING POWER PER CAPITA (PLN) 29,490 TOTAL STOCK (m²) 2 million 70 SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (m²) 22,700 VACANCY RATE (%) TOTAL POPULATION 2.3 million TOTAL PURCHASING POWER OF INHABITANTS (PLN) 70 billion NUMBER OF SHOPPING CENTRES NUMBER OF SCHEMES UNDER CONSTRUCTION 3 PRIME RENTS (EUR/m²/MONTH) Source: Colliers International, GfK, Central Statistical Office, Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES 2018 Colliers International

4 STOCK AND SUPPLY There are approximately 2 million m² of shopping centre space in ten regional cities (70 facilities), which accounts for more than 17% of the total stock in Poland. The largest amount of space is offered by the markets of Lublin (14 shopping centres) and Bydgoszcz (10 shopping centres). In turn, the smallest market is Olsztyn with 121,000 m² and five schemes. The saturation of retail shopping centres in regional cities varies significantly from 590 m²/ 1,000 inhabitants in Radom and Częstochowa to over 1,000 in Rzeszów, Bielsko-Biała and Lublin. Similarly to the entire Poland, the traditional shopping centre is the dominant format in regional cities, accounting for 90% of total stock. Nevertheless, in smaller cities there are approximately 100,000 m 2 of space in retail parks, with most in Białystok. There are also outlet centres in Białystok, Lublin and Rzeszów. The most recent one was completed last year in the place of the former Galeria Graffica in Rzeszów. STOCK (M 2 GLA*) KIELCE TORUŃ , , , , , , , ,000 In 2017, moderate activity among developers was recorded in regional cities. In total, approximately 65,600 m 2 of shopping centre space was delivered to the market. The only new retail property opened in regional cities was IKEA Skende Shopping in Lublin (57,500 m²). Traditional shopping centre Retail park Outlet centre Number of schemes *Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, December Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES 2018 Colliers International

5 However, developers focused on the expansions and modernisations of the existing centres. The most spectacular was the expansion of Auchan Hetmańska in Białystok, where beside increasing the area by 6,000 m², a chillout zone, a co-working space, a multimedia corner and a playground were opened. The car park has also been reconstructed and equipped with bicycle shelters and dog kennels. Sfera in Bielsko-Biała, Galeria Jurajska in Częstochowa and Plaza Rzeszów were also extended and modernised. The medium-term forecast for development activity in regional cities is that it will remain moderate and mainly include modernisations, extensions and small convenience shopping centres. At the beginning of 2018, approximately 33,000 m 2 of retail space was under construction in these locations. The largest scheme under construction was Outlet Center Bydgoszcz. Notable plans for modernisation include Plaza Lublin, where the adaptation of space for new tenants, renovation of the food court and recreational and educational zones are planned. SUPPLY AND SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (M 2 GLA*) KIELCE TORUŃ Supply in ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Space under construction DENSITY OF SHOPPING CENTRE SPACE (M 2 /1,000 INHABITANTS) *Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, December 2017 THE BIGGEST SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES 773 Shopping centre City GLA* (m 2 ) Owner Developer 1,141 Atrium Felicity Lublin 75,000 Atrium Poland Real Estate Galeria Echo Kielce 70,000 EPP Galeria Olimp Lublin 63,000 PHUT TRANSHURT Atrium Poland Real Estate Echo Investment PHUT TRANSHURT IKEA Skende Shopping Lublin 57,500 IKEA Centres Polska IKEA Centres Polska KIELCE 760 Millenium Hall Rzeszów 52,000 Develop Investment Develop Investment 1,128 Zielone Arkady Bydgoszcz 51,000 ECE ECE Sfera Bielsko-Biała 48,500 Atrium Copernicus Galeria Jurajska Toruń 47,400 CBRE Global Investors Atrium Poland Real Estate Bielsko Business Center 3 TK Development Częstochowa 44,900 GTC GTC Auchan Bielsko-Biała 44,700 Immochan Polska Immochan Polska *Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, December ,248 TORUŃ ,000 1,200 1,400 Density Source: Colliers International, December Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES 2018 Colliers International

6 Poland Retail market DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE Despite the moderate development activity, new retail chains are still appearing in regional cities. This is related to both the extension of the existing shopping centres and recommercialisation processes. The only newly built scheme, which attracted the interest of the tenants, was IKEA Skende Shopping in Lublin. The largest openings in the fashion sector in regional cities included H&M in Auchan Hetmańska in Białystok and H&M and Carry in Skende Shopping Lublin. Martes Sport (the sports equipment and clothing chain) is continuing to expand stores were opened in Auchan Hetmańska in Białystok, Aura in Olsztyn and Outlet Center Lublin. Go Sport opened in Skende Shopping Lublin and Decathlon in Plaza Rzeszów. In turn, Outhorn, Puma and Martes Sport Junior opened stores in Galeria Echo in Kielce. Among new tenants who started operating in the entertainment and leisure sector, the following clubs are worth mentioning: CityFit opened in Zielone Wzgórze in Białystok and Rondo in Bydgoszcz, Calypso in Galeria Jurajska in Częstochowa, as well as Master Bowling&Billards in Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin. VACANCY RATE (%) KIELCE TORUŃ Vacancy rate Source: Colliers International based on PRRF, December Rynek Retail market handlowy SHOPPING CENTRA CENTRES HANDLOWE IN REGIONAL W MIASTACH CITIES REGIONALNYCH 2018 Colliers 2018 International Colliers International

7 Gastronomy is developing rapidly in shopping centres in regional cities. Bierhalle in Focus Mall in Bydgoszcz, McDonald s in Lublin Plaza, Kuchnia Marche in Galeria Słoneczna in Radom and KFC in Atrium Copernicus in Toruń opened outlets. Starbucks debuted in the Bydgoszcz market in Zielone Arkady, and Costa Coffee in Galeria Warmińska in Olsztyn. The expansion of food chains that leased the space after the Alma delicatessen closed continued last year. Carrefour opened its stores in centres such as Focus Mall in Bydgoszcz, Aura in Olsztyn and Galeria Olimp in Lublin, while Biedronka opened in Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin and Galeria Jurajska in Częstochowa. Shopping centres in regional cities were again the subject of interest from the homeware sector in Skende Shopping in Lublin, IKEA, Black Red White, Abra, Bel-Pol, Home&You and Flying Tiger opened stores, while in Outlet Center Białystok Opus Meble and Swalen opened and Komfort opened in Białystok Auchan Hetmańska and Radom Echo. Other significant openings include new Toys R Us stores in Auchan Hetmańska in Białystok and the Rondo shopping centre in Bydgoszcz. The vacancy rate varies depending on the market. At the end of 2017, the highest vacancy rates were recorded in Radom (8.5%) and Częstochowa (6.6%), and the lowest in Toruń (1.7%) and Kielce (1.8%). The vacancy rate was influenced mostly by the premises of Praktiker stores, which are still waiting for new tenants, and other large areas intended mainly for the food and fashion sectors. POPULATION PER SHOPPING CENTRE KIELCE TORUŃ ANNUAL PURCHASING POWER (PLN) PER M 2 OF SHOPPING CENTRE 0 100, , , ,000 Number of inhabitants in the city Number of inhabitants per shopping centre Source: Colliers International, Central Statistical Office, H ,636 38,372 39,058 52,635 KIELCE 26,556 41,066 42,898 22,391 29,763 TORUŃ 44, ,000 40,000 60,000 Purchasing power per m 2 of shopping centre Source: Colliers International, GfK, Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES 2018 Colliers International

8 Poland Retail market RENTAL RATES AND OTHER LEASE CONDITIONS Rental rates in regional cities show a slightly downward trend. The highest rents, for premises m² for the fashion sector in a prime shopping centre, are at EUR m²/month in Bydgoszcz and EUR m²/month in Radom and Częstochowa. Market practice, also in regional cities, is becoming more flexible in terms of leases. Strategic tenants for a centre are being offered incentive packages, including: participation in fitout costs, leases based only on turnover, shorter rental periods, temporary reductions and freezing of service charge costs. RENTAL RATES (PLN/M 2 /MONTH) KIELCE New legal regulations introduced in Poland last year, including a gradually implemented trading ban on Sundays, may bring changes in lease conditions in the near future TORUŃ Rental rate level Source: Colliers International, December Rynek Retail market handlowy SHOPPING CENTRA CENTRES HANDLOWE IN REGIONAL W MIASTACH CITIES REGIONALNYCH 2018 Colliers 2018 International Colliers International

9 Poland Retail market TRENDS Due to the dynamic growth of e-commerce in Poland, many retail chains expand their services and enter new markets. In 2017, IKEA launched the delivery of its products, including to Białystok, Bielsko-Biała, Częstochowa, Kielce, Olsztyn, Radom and Rzeszów. Food chains, headed by Carrefour, are becoming more and more bold in implementing new technologies for customer service that enable combining on-line and off-line sales. Following the model of the largest agglomerations, entertainment and leisure concepts are beginning to appear temporarily or permanently in shopping centres in regional cities to add variety to their offer. In the past year for example, a karting track (1,400 m²) was opened in Białystok Outlet Center, and a temporary LEGO exhibition (1,500 m²) was organised in Outlet Center Lublin. Changing consumer habits mean that the eating outside trend has also reached regional cities. In the first place, it is an opportunity for the faster development of café chain networks in these locations for example Starbucks in Bydgoszcz and Costa Coffee in Olsztyn. Green shopping centres are not only the preserve of the largest agglomerations, retail schemes in regional cities are also gaining ecological certificates. In 2017, BREEAM certificates were awarded to Outlet Center Białystok and Outlet Center Lublin, as well as Atrium Felicity in Lublin and Atrium Copernicus in Toruń. Electric car charging stations have appeared in Focus Mall Bydgoszcz, Plaza Rzeszów, Gemini Park Bielsko-Biała and IKEA Bydgoszcz and Lublin. The offer of shopping centres in regional cities is also enriched with nontypical functions the Bydgoszcz Art Center (320 m²) opened in Focus Mall in Bydgoszcz, which will run exhibitions and educational activities in historical interiors. 9 Rynek Retail market handlowy SHOPPING CENTRA CENTRES HANDLOWE IN REGIONAL W MIASTACH CITIES REGIONALNYCH 2018 Colliers 2018 International Colliers International

10 REACH ACROSS RETAIL FOR YOUR ADVANTAGE YOUR BUSINESS OBJECTIVES OUR EXPERTISE AND SERVICE To achieve success in today s market, your company needs solutions that use its potential, resources and opportunities. The ACROSS Retail approach provides easy access to all services on the real estate market shaped by your needs as a tenant, owner or investor in the retail sector. ACROSS Retail is the sum of our experts experience, a tailor-made service package and an advisory team that understands your business all available for you in one place. Let us help you use your potential.

11 413 offices in 69 countries on 6 continents United States: 145 Canada: 28 Latin America: 23 Asia Pacific: 86 EMEA: 131 2,4 billion revenue in 2017 CONTACT: Dominika Jędrak Director Research and Consultancy Services Dominika.Jedrak@colliers.com Katarzyna Michnikowska Assocciate Director Research and Consultancy Services Katarzyna.Michnikowska@colliers.com Klaudia Sionek Junior Analyst Research and Consultancy Services Klaudia.Sionek@colliers.com 180 million m 2 space under management 15,400 employees Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ and TSX: CIGI) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with 15,400 professionals operating in 69 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. Colliers International has been active in the Polish market since 1997 and operates through offices in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk Katowice and Łódź with over 250 employees in total. The company has been often honored for its achievements by industry organizations such as Eurobuild, CIJ Journal, CEE Quality Awards and the International Property Awards. Colliers most recent distinction in Poland include the Outsourcing Star, given in recognition of its status as one of the most active real estate advisors in the outsourcing sector; and the Gazele Biznesu for being one of the most dynamically developing companies in Poland. Copyright 2018 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No resposibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their profesional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.