Studa Ekonomczne. Zeszyty Naukowe Unwersytetu Ekonomcznego w Katowcach ISSN 2083-86 Nr 247 205 Informatyka Ekonometra 4 Agneszka Tłuczak Unversty of Opole Faculty of Economcs Department of Econometrcs and Quanttatve Methods atluczak@un.opole.pl SPECIALIZATION AND COMPETITIVENESS OF POLISH VOIVODSHIPS IN COP PODUCTION IN POLAND Summary: The objectve of the present paper s to classfy Polsh vovodshps regardng specalzaton and compettveness of crop producton n the sectors of wheat, rye and oats. Crop producton structure n the sectors grouped based on type of crop n the perod of 2004-204 was the subject of the analyss. The analyss was based on structural and geographcal shft-share analyss whch enabled a classfcaton of Polsh vovodshps regardng crop producton changes effects and also an assessment of crop producton structures related to the reference space,.e. regonal area of the Polsh vovodshps. The performed research also allowed for the dentfcaton of crop producton structures characterzed by specalzaton and compettveness n wheat, rye and oats. Keywords: shft-share analyss, specalzaton, compettveness. Introducton Agrculture, as one of the few sectors of the economy, s heavly dependent on weather condtons. We need to keep n mnd that by usng approprate methods of producton we can mprove the effcency of agrcultural producton. External envronment can also have hgh mpact on the changes takng place n agrculture, n partcular shaped by the Common Agrcultural Polcy (CAP), the fndngs of the World Trade Organzaton (WTO) and the behavor of markets (commodty, product and captal) [Kopńsk, 204]. Cereal producton s one of the man drectons of agrcultural producton n Poland. The share of cereals n the value of agrcultural output n the perod 2008-202 was 20%, whle the value of commercal agrcultural producton 5%. In the structure of gran
Specalzaton and Compettveness 97 crops account for nearly 74% of the total area of the natonal crop. Popularty growng crops due to the clmate and sol condtons, wth a relatvely smple producton technology, relatvely low labor ntensty, ease of storage, transportaton and sales [ynek zbóż, 203]. Today s economc condtons related to the operaton and regonal development wthn the European Unon make t necessary to take on new dagnostc tests for the prospects of economc development of regons [ozpędowska-matraszek, 200]. In ths study, one of the spatal methods was used to dagnose spatal dynamcs of changes: shft share analyss. The man am of ths work was to analyze changes n the volume of crop producton (cereals) n the Polsh vovodshps n the years 2004-204 by speces (wheat, rye, oats) usng the shft share method. The study assesses the pace of change n the sze of the phenomenon.. The concept of shft-share analyss Methods and models of shft share analyss (Shft-Share Analyss SSA, Spatal Shft-Share Analyss SSSA) belong to the group of structural and geographcal analyzes [Ekonometra przestrzenna, 200; Szewczyk, Łobos, 20]. Perloff, Dunn, Lampard and Muth [960] were the frst who descrbe classc shft-share analyss. Ths method was modfed snce the 60s of the XIX century, the spatal factor was ncluded to the research. Dong research the spatal dstrbuton/ntensty/changes n the level of the studed phenomenon the fact that each unt/regon/country does not exst as a separate geographc area must be taken nto consderaton. The development of many phenomena depends on the spatal nteracton wth neghbourng areas. Observng the spatal relatonshp and nteracton we should remember the frst law of geography (spatal econometrcs) formulated n 970 by W. Tobler: Everythng s related to everythng else, but near thngs are more related than dstant thngs [Tobler, 970; Ekonometra przestrzenna, 200]. The bass of spatal shft-share analyss n (SSSA) s the classc method of shft-share analyss (SSA). SSA method allows testng and assess the level of development of the regon (provnce) on the background the level of development of the reference area (country). Changes of regonal growth of the analyzed phenomena are assessed n the context of the analyss of changes n the structure of phenomena [Antczak, 204; Grzybowska, 203; Mayor, Lopez, 2008].
98 Agneszka Tłuczak The varable TX quantfed n the form of a complex of absolute growth or the rate of change s tested n the classc shft-share analyss [Trzpot n., 203; Ekonometra przestrzenna, 200; Szewczyk, Tłuczak, uszczak, 20]. The use n research the shft share analyss s based on the decomposton of the total change n the varable for the three components [Szewczyk, Zygmunt, 20a]: tx r = tx.. + w ) ( tx. tx.. ) + w ) ( txr tx. ) () where: m e u r= = = = S ( xr xr ) r= = r tx.. natonal (global) share effect; S x S ( xr xr ) ( xr xr ) r= r= = = tx tx.. =. structural share effect; S x x r= r r r r= = txr tx = xr x r r= = ( xr xr ) r= r x x. regonal compettveness share effect; x r w ) = regonal weght; xr. r r x r the value of the varable n the r-th regon of the -th group of the crosssectonal dstrbuton of the ntal perod; x the value of the varable n the r-th regon of the -th group of the crosssectonal dstrbuton of the fnal perod. Transformng the equaton () to formula [Szewczyk, Zygmunt, 20b]: ( tx tx ) + w ( tx tx ) tx r tx.. = w )... ) r. we receved the regonal growth (tx r t.. ) defned as the dfference between regonal and natonal growth rate. The relaton descrbed by equaton (2) s called structural and geographcal equaton where geographc dversty of the regonal average growth rate s decomposed nto two effects: structural: s r = w ) ( tx. tx.. ) whch s the weghted arthmetc mean devatons of the average tempos of growth n the sector and the growth rate of natonal and ndcates that the regons are dfferentated by varatons n the locaton; (2)
Specalzaton and Compettveness 99 regonal: = w ( tx tx ) g r r ) r..( defned as the weghted arthmetc mean of regonal varatons prescrbng categores of cross-cuttng qualtatve crteron to the respectve regons. The classc atttude n shft-share analyss does not take nto account the spatal relatonshps, so the tested objects are treated ndvdually as unrelated n any way areas. In 2004 Nazara and Hewngs proposed to ntroduce to the equaton () a spatal weght matrx: tx = w ( Wtx tx ) + w ( tx Wtx ) tx r.. )... ) r. (3) where: W standardzed spatal weghts matrx. Presented by equaton (3) spatal structural and geographcal equalty developed n ther research Marquez and amajo [2007]. They connected classc decomposton wth the full spatal decomposton of the analyzed varable growth rates. After aggregatng the results accordng to the formula of weghted average effects of structural and geographc equalty (3) takes the form: tx r tx.. = + e w w ) ) + LSE ur r + w ) w ) + LDE w r ) NLE where: e natonal structural effect; u r regonal-natonal effect; NLE r = (Wtx r tx r ) net local effect; t means that the growth rate of neghborng regons may lead to addtonal adjustment of ndvdual regonal effect; LSE r = (Wtx Wtx r ) local strustral effect; t means a correcton of growth n the varous sectors under the nfluence growth rates n neghborng regons; LDE r = (tx r Wtx ) local effect of dversty means the exstence of specfc dynamcs of changes n actvty n specfc sectors of the r-regon compared wth the dynamcs of sectoral change n neghborng regons. r + (4) In ths research a nearest neghbor bnary borders matrx was consdered.
00 Agneszka Tłuczak 2. Shft-share analyss of crop producton n Poland The subject of the research s agrculture producton structure by types of cereals: wheat, rye, oats. The adopted tme seres of conducted research covers the perod 2004-204. The analyss covers 6 Polsh vovodshps. The necessary statstcal nformaton was obtaned from the Polsh Central Statstcal Offce database. Structural and geographc agrculture producton analyss was conducted n vovodshps by usng classcal and dynamc shft-share analyss and the Esteban-Marqullas model usng allocaton effect [Barff, Knght, 988; Dunn, 960; Esteban-Marqullas, 972; Perloff et al., 960; Ekonometra przestrzenna, 200]. Shft-share analyss represents a research tool that allows determnng the rate of changes related to total agrculture producton n each Polsh vovodshp at the background of reference area,.e. the Poland area. Shft-share analyss of agrculture producton n the Polsh vovodshps allowed for specfyng structural and compettveness changes of the sze and type of crop changes grouped accordng to the types of cereals by postve and negatve change effects values, as well as by specalzaton and compettveness the components of allocaton effects. The assessment of regonal specalzaton and compettveness n economy sectors requres specfyng a reference structure,.e. the one consttutng the requred reference bass. In the dscussed framework ths role wll be played by plant agrculture producton n the space of 6 Polsh vovodshps. The nformaton provded n Table ndcates that n polsh vovodshps n the perod 2004-204, the largest average crop producton share was defntely observed for the wheat, two other cereal types presented the same share n crop producton. The changes occurrng n the course of ten analyzed years were nsgnfcant, whch seems natural, snce economc structures are most frequently characterzed by slow and evolutonary type of changes over tme. Table. Crop agrculture producton structure n Polsh vovodshps n the perod 2004-204 (n %) Year Wheat ye Oats 2004 42 29 29 204 43 29 28 Source: Author s own complaton based on CSO database. Table 2 presents the effects of crop producton structure changes whch allow dentfyng the economy sectors exertng key mpacts on the polsh vovodshps economc growth n the perod 2004-204. Net structural effects were defned by means of decreasng gross effects n terms of agrculture producton growth
Specalzaton and Compettveness 0 rate n Poland. Wheat producton changes n 204 resulted n hgher crop producton n all Polsh vovodshps, by 7.55% on average. The growth rate of oats producton n 204 nfluenced the slght growth of crop producton sze (.97%). The largest crop producton rate occurred n rye producton sector ( 34.76%). Table 2. esults of classc shft-share analyss wth regard to the effects of crop producton changes n the sectors grouped accordng to types of crop Effects of crop producton changes n Polsh vovodshp (n %) 204/2004 Total effect (growth rate of crop producton n Poland).77 Net structural Wheat 7.55 effect ye -34.76 Oats.97 Source: Author s own complaton based on CSO database. Table 3. Classfcaton of Polsh vovodshps by postve and negatve aggregated effects values: structural and compettve (dynamc shft-share analyss 204/2004) Crteron of dvson Vovodshps Number of vovodshps Effects: śląske, lubelske, kujawsko-pomorske, 4 structural (+) compettve (+) pomorske Effects: structural (+) compettve (-) Effects: structural (-) compettve (+) Effects: structural (-) compettve (-) małopolske, podkarpacke, śwętokrzyske, zachodnopomorske, dolnośląske, opolske, warmńsko-mazurske Source: Author s own complaton based on CSO database. łódzke, lubuske, welkopolske 3 mazowecke, podlaske 2 Table 3 and Fgure llustrate the classfcaton of Polsh vovodshps wth regard to aggregated structural and compettve effects. The frst class covered those vovodshps n whch sectoral crop producton structure has a postve mpact on agrculture producton rate growth and economc sectors are characterzed by hgher dynamcs of crop producton sze fluctuatons compared to other regons. Ths group ncludes four vovodshps. In ths class kujawsko-pomorske stands out as characterzed by very strong postve effects, both structural and compettve ones, defntely hgher than n the other vovodshps covered by ths class. The second class characterzed by a postve value only of the structural factor lsts seven vovodshps. The most favorable chances n agrculture producton structure observed n ths class n the analyzed perod occurred n opolske. Ths regon was characterzed by the hghest structural effects and by slght, negatve compettve effects. 7
02 Agneszka Tłuczak 0,5 0,0 małopolske dolnośląske opolske 0,05 podkarpacke warmńsko-mazurske pomorske lubelske kujawsko-pomorske zachodnopomorske śwętokrzyske śląske Structural effects 0,00-0,05 lubuske welkopolske -0,0-0,5 Podlaske mazowecke łódzke -0,20-0,30-0,25-0,20-0,5-0,0-0,05 0,00 0,05 0,0 0,5 0,20 Compettve effects Fg.. Aggregated structural effects vs. aggregated compettve effects Source: Author s own complaton based on CSO database. The thrd class, featurng postve nfluence of only the compettve factor, covered three vovodshps. In ths class of regons lubuske was characterzed by defntely the least favorable changes n crop producton structure. The fourth class covers the countres n whch both crop structure and nternal compettve development determnants exerted negatve mpacts. Ths s the smallest class ncludng two vovodshps. The most unfavorable compettve effects of crop producton changes were observed n ths class wth reference to podlaske, whereas the least favorable structural changes were recorded n podlaske too. Fgure 2 presents the values of aggregated structural and compettve effects arranged accordng to the decreasng values calculated for 2004-204. As t can be observed, n the analyzed perod compettve factors exerted a much larger mpact on crop producton changes than the structural ones. The most favorable structural effects of changes occurred defntely n kujawsko-pomorske, śląske and warmńsko-mazurske. The largest negatve nfluence of workforce structure on employment changes was observed n podlaske.
Specalzaton and Compettveness 03 Fg. 2. Aggregated structural and compettve effects for Polsh vovodshps n the perod 2004-204 Source: Author s own complaton based on CSO database. The most favorable nternal compettve factors responsble for changes n crop producton occurred n mazowecke and opolske. The least favorable stuaton was observed n dolnośląske, pomorske and śwętokrzyske,.e. those vovodshps whch struggled wth economc crss n the analyzed perod. Table 4 presents the classfcaton of Polsh vovodshps wth regard to allocaton com- ponent effects: specalzaton or ts absence as well as the advantage or dsadvan- was ob- tage of compettveness. In the case of wheat a specalzaton and compettve advantage served for all the regon under consderaton. And n case of rye n regard to all vovodshps specalzaton and compettve dsadvantage. Dfferent stuatons can be noted n the case of oats, for eght provnces some specalzaton and compettve advantage was revealed and for another eght: specalzaton and compettve dsadvantage.
04 Agneszka Tłuczak Table 4. Classfcaton of Polsh vovodshps wth regard to allocaton component effects n oats producton n 204 Specalzaton and compettve advantage Specalzaton and compettve dsadvantage Oats łódzke, mazowecke, podkarpacke, podlaske, śwętokrzyske, welkopolske, pomorske, warmńsko-mazurske małopolske, śląske, lubelske, lubuske, zachodnopomorske, dolnośląske, opolske, kujawsko-pomorske Source: Author s own complaton based on CSO database. Concluson The conducted research coverng specalzaton and compettveness of changes n crop producton by types of crop n Polsh vovodshps n the perod 2004-204 allows for presentng the followng conclusons:. Snce 2004 vovodshps recorded a growth n crop agrculture producton by.77%. However, the changes n wheat producton resulted n an average producton rate growth by 7.55%. The wheat sector turned out to be the key one responsble for economc growth of agrcultural producton. 2. The most favorable structural effects of changes n crop producton occurred n welkopolske, dolnośląske and lubuske, so n the vovodshps characterzed by a hgh share of wheat producton sector presentng the level of respectvely about 57%, 52%, 86%, 57% n 204. Defntely the least favorable structural effects were observed n lubelske, where wheat producton amounted to about 8% n 204. In the vovodshps featurng postve structural effects rye producton n ranged from 6% n lubelske to 54% n kujawsko-pomorske n 204. 3. The most favorable compettve effects took place n mazowecke and opolske, whereas the least favorable ones n the vovodshps ncluded dolnośląske, pomorske and śwętokrzyske. 4. Fnally shft-share analyss proved to be a useful method n dentfyng changes related to structure and dynamcs of sze of crop producton n polsh vovodshps. eferences Antczak E. (204), Analza zaneczyszczena powetrza w Polsce z wykorzystanem przestrzennej dynamcznej metody przesunęć udzałów, Ekonoma Środowsko, 2(49), p. 9-209. Barff.A., Knght III P.L. (988), Dynamc Shft-share Analyss, Growth and Change, No. 9/2.
Specalzaton and Compettveness 05 Dunn E.S. (960), A Statstcal and Analytcal Technque for egonal Analyss, Papers and Proceedngs of the egonal Scence Assocaton, Vol. 6, p. 98-2, Ekonometra przestrzenna. Metody modele analzy danych przestrzennych (200), red. B. Sucheck, C.H. Beck, Warszawa. Esteban-Marqullas J.M. (972), Shft and Share Analyss evsted, egonal and Urban Economcs, Vol. 2, No. 3. Grzybowska B. (203), Przestrzenna koncentracja potencjału nnowacyjnego w przemyśle spożywczym, ocznk Ekonom olnctwa ozwoju Obszarów Wejskch, t. 00, zesz. 2, p. 53-64. Kopńsk J. (204), Trendy zman głównych kerunków produkcj zwerzęcej w Polsce w okrese członkostwa w UE, Prace Naukowe Unwersytetu Ekonomcznego we Wrocławu, nr 36, p. 6-28. Marquez M.A., amajo J. (2007), Shft-Share Analyss: Global and Local Spatal Dmensons, Unversty of Extremadura. Mayor M., Lopez A.J. (2008), Spatal Shft-share Analyss versus Spatal Flterng: An Applcaton to Spansh Employment Data, Emprcal Economcs, Vol. 34, Iss., p. 23-42. Nazara S., Hewngs G.J.D. (2004), Spatal Structure and Taxonomy of Decomposton n Shft-share Analyss, Growth & Change, 35(4), p. 476-490. Perloff H.S., Dunn E.S., Lampard E.E., Muth.F. (960), egons, esources and Economc Growth, Johns Hopkns Press, Baltmore. ozpędowska-matraszek D. (200), Badana empryczne wzrostu ekonomcznego regonów, http://www.e.un.lodz.pl/pctures/fles/ konfdydak75-92.pdf (30.06.205). ynek zbóż w Polsce (203), Agencja ynku olnego, http://www.arr.gov.pl/data/0032 /rynek_zboz_203_pl.pdf (30.06.205). Szewczyk M., Łobos K. (20), A Comparatve Study of the Economc Performance of Chemcal Branch Enterprses from Opolske and Dolnosląske Vovodshps [n:] egonal and Local Development: Captals and Drvers, ed. K. Malk, Faculty Economy and Management of the Opole Unversty of Technology, Self-Government of the Opole Vovodeshp, Commttee of Spatal Economy and egonal Plannng of the Polsh Academy of Scences, Commttee Organzaton and Management Scences of the Polsh Academy of Scences Katowce, Opole 20, p. 09-34. Szewczyk M., Tłuczak A., uszczak B. (20), Potencjał województwa opolskego w kontekśce analzy zman udzałów branż [w:] Projekcja rozwoju ncjatyw klastrowych w województwe opolskm, red. W. Duczmal, W. Potwora, Wydawnctwo Instytut Śląsk Sp. z o.o., WSZA, Opole, p. 05-9. Szewczyk M., Zygmunt A. (20a), Prospects of Food Products Manufacture Sector n Opolske egon [n:] egonal and Local Development: Captals and Drvers, ed. K. Malk, Faculty Economy and Management of the Opole Unversty of Technology, Self-Government of the Opole Vovodeshp, Commttee of Spatal Economy and egonal Plannng of the Polsh Academy of Scences, Commttee Organzaton and Management Scences of the Polsh Academy of Scences Katowce, Opole 20, p. 35-56.
06 Agneszka Tłuczak Szewczyk M., Zygmunt A. (20b), Opolske Vovodshp: Perspectves of the Mnng and Quarryng Sector [n:] egonal and Local Development: Captals and Drvers, ed. K. Malk, Faculty Economy and Management of the Opole Unversty of Technology, Self-Government of the Opole Vovodeshp, Commttee of Spatal Economy and egonal Plannng of the Polsh Academy of Scences, Commttee Organzaton and Management Scences of the Polsh Academy of Scences Katowce, Opole, p. 99-28. Tobler W. (970), A Computer Move Smulatng Urban Growth n the Detrot egon, Economc Geography, 46(2), p. 234-240. Trzpot G., Ojrzyńska A., Szołtysek J., & Twaróg S. (203), Wykorzystane shft share analyss w opse zman struktury honorowych dawców krw w Polsce, [n:] Welowymarowe modelowane analza ryzyka, UE, Katowce, p. 84-98. SPECJALIZACJA I KONKUENCYJNOŚĆ WOJEWÓDZTW W ZAKESIE PODUKCJI ZBÓŻ W POLSCE Streszczene: Przestrzenna metoda przesunęć udzałów stanow alternatywę klasycznej analzy shft-share, w której ne jest uwzględnone geografczne położene rozważanych regonów. Wele zachodzących zjawsk, ch rozwój czy też kerunk zman są bowem uzależnone od przestrzennych nterakcj zachodzących pomędzy sąsadującym regonam. Model przestrzennej analzy shft-share został wprowadzony do badań przez Nazarę Hewngsa. Model ten przedstawa przestrzenne zmodyfkowane stopy wzrostu (tempa zman) poszczególnych warantów zjawska przez uwzględnene temp wzrostu zjawska w obszarach sąsadujących. Celem artykułu jest analza zman struktury produkcj rolnej w województwach Polsk w latach 2004-204 według rodzajów gatunków zbóż z zastosowanem przestrzennej dynamcznej metody przesunęć udzałów. W opracowanu dokonano oceny tempa wzrostu welkośc zjawska. Ponadto zdentyfkowano oszacowano udzał czynnków strukturalnych, sektorowych oraz regonalnych (lokalnych, przestrzennych) w welkośc efektu globalnego (produkcj zbóż w Polsce ogółem) w przekroju województw. Dodatkowo włączono do badana aspekty przestrzenne (zależnośc mędzyregonalne) w postac macerzy wag przestrzennych, która umożlwła włączene do badana aspektów zwązanych z zachodzącym zależnoścam ponadregonalnym. Słowa kluczowe: SSSA, produkcja zbóż, zróżncowane regonalne.