QUO VADIS BIOECONOMY?

QUO VADIS BIOECONOMY? BASICS OF BIOECONOMY DR MARIUSZ MACIEJCZAK Projekt UDA-POKL.04.01.01-00-073/13-00 Program doskonalenia dydaktyki SGGW w dziedzinie bioekonomii oraz utworzenie kwalifikacji zawodowej Młodszy menadżer jakości Projekt jest finansowany z Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Kapitał Ludzki 2007-2013, Priorytet IV Szkolnictwo wyższe i nauka, Działanie 4.1. Wzmocnienie i rozwój potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni oraz zwiększenie liczby absolwentów kierunków o kluczowym znaczeniu dla gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, Poddziałanie 4.1.1. Wzmocnienie potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni

Cele Scenarios of bioeconomy development

Learning outcomes 01 - The student is able to explain the essence of bio-economy and exchange key problem areas within its framework 02 - The student has the ability to make decisions in the field of bioeconomy using information known from classes 03 - The student is able to analyze problems in the field of bio-economy and to make their critical and creative assessment and formulate solutions for development 04 - The student has the ability to work with others, be creative and demonstrate the ability to work in a team in different roles

Plan Development of production and consumption in the world in short term perspective. Development of biotechnology in the world in short term perspective. The use of biomass development in short term perspective. Factors affecting the development of the bioeconomy.

Figure 1.6. Growing diversity of crop use. Cereal consumption in developed and developing countries Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 1.7. Most of the growth in meat and fish consumption will occur in developing countries. Livestock consumption in developed and developing countries Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 1.12. Value of net-exports positive in Americas, Oceania and East Europe. Real value of net-exports of agricultural commodities Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Table 1.1. The largest trade deficits in volume terms in 2023 will occur in Asia and Africa. Volume of net-exports in 2023 ('000 tonnes) Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 Africa Asia and Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean North America Oceania Developed Other Developed Wheat -44 987-49 963 45 788-7 074 46 206 18 329-8 299 Rice -18 052 21 083-1 368-1 192 2 419 299-2 637 Coarse grains -22 851-63 999 30 402 21 795 53 574 4 154-19 595 Oilseeds -3 494-98 449-11 469 57 748 58 323 2 921-5 185 Protein meals -4 461-27 206-19 586 49 715 8 963-2 669-4 912 Beef - 877-2 105-1 110 3 341 42 2 224-1 147 Pork - 714-2 625 1 715-376 3 621-362 -1 280 Sheep 53-790 - 140 9-71 1 032-40 Poultry -2 192-5 234 877 3 677 4 710 57-1 729 Fish -3 323 9 625-1 822 2 015-3 406-220 -2 769 Fish meal 43-1 418-7 1 398 125-28 - 112 Fish oil 56-124 - 189 296 4-12 - 30 Butter - 161-413 80-22 98 476-39 Cheese - 219-633 879-284 318 518-365 Skim milk powder - 387-1 241 640-367 826 642-95 Whole milk powder - 618-1 372 379-46 4 1 656-21 Vegetable oils -8 775 5 447-2 366 8 362 235-386 -2 279 Sugar -11 684-17 342-591 38 337-4 511 3 636-4 475 Cotton 1 620-7 164 48 927 2 562 1 035 741 Note: For each commodity, the blue shaded areas indicate the regions with largest net exports, with the darkest blue shaded area representing the region with the largest net exports. Conversely, the grey shaded areas indicate the areas with the smallest net exports, with the darkest grey shaded area representing the region with the smallest net exports (largest net imports). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 1.14. Price trends in nominal terms for agricultural commodities to 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 1.16. Uncertainty around the world coarse grain price (USD/t) Source: JRC-IPTS, European Commission. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 3.3. Development of the world ethanol market Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 3.4. Regional distributions of world ethanol production and use in 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 3.5. Development of the world biodiesel market Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 3.6. Regional distributions of world biodiesel production and use in 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 3.7. Share of feedstocks used for ethanol production Note: Sugar crops include ethanol produced from sugar cane and from sugar beets Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 3.8. Share of feedstocks used for biodiesel production Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 4.6. Increasing food and feed demand for wheat in developing countries. Evolution of wheat utilisation shares in developed and developing countries between the base year and 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 4.9. Increasing use of non-conventional feeds led by Dried Distillers's Grains Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023

Figure 7.6. Yearly meat consumption per capita increases as income levels rise Note: c.w.e. is carcass weight equivalent, r.t.c is ready to cook equivalent. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 Poultry Pork kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) 100 kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) 100 80 80 60 y = 10,75ln(x) - 72,73 60 40 40 y = 6,42ln(x) - 42,68 20 20 0 0-20 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 USD Income/person/year Beef and veal -20 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 USD Income/person/year Sheep kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) 60 kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) 60 50 50 40 40 30 20 y = 3,48ln(x) - 19,62 30 20 10 10 y = 1,05ln(x) - 4,02 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 0 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 USD Income/person/year 0 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 USD Income/person/year

Bio-economy and sustainability: a potential contribution to the Bio-economy Observatory Report EUR 25743 EN 2013

Szacowana wartość globalnego łańcucha biomasy do roku 2020 (mld UDS)

Szacowana wielkość rynku dla bio-produktów w UE w 2020r.

Przewidywany rozwój sektora biotechnologicznego podejście komparatywne

Market Projections for US Chemical Products (Total and Biobased) ($US bn) 2005 2010 2025 Sector Total Biobased Total Biobased Total Biobased Commodity 475 0.9 550 5-11 857 50-86 Speciality 375 5 435 87-110 679 300-340 Fine 100 15 125 25-32 195 88-98 Polymer 250 0.3 290 15-30 452 45-90 Total 1,200 21.2 1,400 132-183 2,183 483-614 0.2% 16-28% US bio-based products market potential and projections through 2025 USDA, OCE-2008-01, February 2008

Amyris estimates Addressable Markets for SynBio Products Production efficiency Cosmetics, flavours, fragrances $32b Artemisinin Industrial lubricants $24b Plastics Additives $37b Automotive lubricants $24b Surfactants $22 b Synthetic and natural rubber $13b Bulk polymers $309 b Jet fuel $309 b Diesel $809 b 2013 and beyond

B+R 100% 90% 6% 2% 80% 70% 58% 48% 60% 50% 40% 28% FP7 92% Demonstration Applied research Basic research/fp7 30% 20% 10% 32% 11% 24% 0% China US EU Source: Key Science and Engineering Indicators, National Scientific Board, 2010 Digest, NSF, http://cordis.europa.eur/erawatch, OECD Research & Development Statistics

The challenge: Overcoming the innovation & deployment gap Europe s ability to commercialise / produce high value products lies in its ability to reach demonstration scale of advanced biorefineries to mature technologies

Our sectors Stage 1 - Reinforce innovation and extend current infrastructure across the economy

The bridges Stage 2 - Build and strengthen value chains across industry sectors

The PPP community Stage 3 - Realise a connected biobased economy from field to end consumer

Projekt UDA-POKL.04.01.01-00-073/13-00 Program doskonalenia dydaktyki SGGW w dziedzinie bioekonomii oraz utworzenie kwalifikacji zawodowej Młodszy menadżer jakości Projekt jest finansowany z Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Kapitał Ludzki 2007-2013, Priorytet IV Szkolnictwo wyższe i nauka, Działanie 4.1. Wzmocnienie i rozwój potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni oraz zwiększenie liczby absolwentów kierunków o kluczowym znaczeniu dla gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, Poddziałanie 4.1.1. Wzmocnienie potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni

Perspektywy zrównoważonego rozwoju bioeonomii

Pytania Which sectors of the bio-economy will grow fastest in perspective for 2030? How PPP can support the development of bioeconomy? What factors will influence the development of the bio-economy in the run up to 2030?

Literature

Thank you Projekt UDA-POKL.04.01.01-00-073/13-00 Program doskonalenia dydaktyki SGGW w dziedzinie bioekonomii oraz utworzenie kwalifikacji zawodowej Młodszy menadżer jakości Projekt jest finansowany z Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Kapitał Ludzki 2007-2013, Priorytet IV Szkolnictwo wyższe i nauka, Działanie 4.1. Wzmocnienie i rozwój potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni oraz zwiększenie liczby absolwentów kierunków o kluczowym znaczeniu dla gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, Poddziałanie 4.1.1. Wzmocnienie potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni