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77 R4& 6 <6 * &M «0& &» /w% =w &w w? ( % $R "1@ B"o% (1 V 8 9w 89w:5 w" "M / / I! B "7+ H#. %( ' "7+ ( % 5 F9 3 /% = 5 %4 7+ 9 89:5 ( 89:5 B.(5 %K \ I4+ @="# 5 B ( +3 ( w %(w( /M 4" <K V+ F( /ÄI- -/R% B w V+ % (! (. 89:5 B F( # 4?5! M u)m FwG5.(w w%k 9w 89w:5 wg5 ( Q! %( =5 89:5 %( C(w ":@ X ( O (? Ü* (4 "59: /R 1 ( " /w%# w%( w( (wk =w w(1389h# "4.v.) 4 Ö9K t:*+ w@# wl%) Bw / w! 4Q'H /!@ (K "#- /% 5+ '. ( %K # ( (N"=5 :;< =& :'./(" H@( O3 F %&#! K "4 + HFS' &M *8=> 3F P (1384) # HC.1?+ H K 5 l9\ 54 H + H 54 R4& <6 H /? (+ )H1.2?+H 5 <5 H R4& 6 3c"Q # 8Q(1380)HB".M H"=.3. 1383 H >' H,"I(H (4e' 4) 6 d&i(1383) HCH )4.4?+ H = 5 5 =5 HR4& 6 <6 f&/ gm(1385)h' * H( =M.5 =%&# =%&# r@h54i &426 41 R4& 6 <6 4gJI (1391)HC9H=K(.6 2 HC CH 9 89:5.1384?H7 H! V H«R4& 6 <6»1«5 i» 3FhhH H.15 [.7 89:5 4IQ =%&# r@h34c> c# & 6 <6 &M(1388)H "H5.8 18 H>= CH9 6 31 R4& 6 <6 lea &4M 1 k&ji 4&(1391) HH5".9? H2 H 9 89:5 =%&#H =%&# r@ V r@ (HR4& 6 3c"Q &Q 3F @&4+I &4M QV (1389)H HR".10 F( H>= CH " $5( =%&# =5?+H cq +/ O o- "n& i"= H1 m1h(1378)h9hb"=5 " 5' HR".11.F( íl H 1371 H?+ H H 6 +I d&i(1371)h )4 " H/ "?.12 3 H= 5 Ö =5H6 RcQ qf:eq R4& p6 <6 (1386)Hì[+ Hî(".13

1391 %&' 3!"# 42 78 H\ =5 :?+ HRM 3F & 6 <6 (1384)H 4R H5V5 " 3 ï H K H 4-8 6 & (1373)H "M H {4 =5 H>'HR4& 6 <6 41 +I 3M(1389)H( * >"M *H +% " 1389H 5 =5?+ HT 1 RcQ k& T R4&(1389)H,=" @ F $%&# RM &M Z&I 14I c, <BB ri"= H1 SF (1385)H"<5? H 3 H"?+ H9 = 5 Å%@ <=%&# =5H 6 <6 cq <IE1(1386) H?L H/ * R\R\ 9 <=5( 5 # HR4& 41 RM 4gI sf4 R# cq(1385) H H/ M?+ HB5 O3 _H4Q I c, E 32 &M (1384)H/ ' IP "Hj5 5 =5 :?+ HF íl H696 B.* + H<6 cb # e=5 ( 1363) HB H?+ H HF íl H = 5 5 =5 :<6 &M(1386) H H/<.?+ H9 = 5 Å%@ <=%&# H4 3ceQ 3E 3 (1380) H(( H1( /? C íl H{4 :>' H 0 4 3F <6 1 0& 6 <6 ( 1382) H?L H/ * t&a c l4/5 34eF @O8 &4& ke 41 @5 l- (1390) H(4.H# "4 / *..HC HC CH9 89:5 =%&# =%&# r@h1388*1z/ =%&# r@ H ()"V ;& E 8I 3FvV# F,=u (1389)H(4.H# "4.49 H B".14.15.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23.24.25.26.27 :5.7 1. Makridakis, S. and Wheelwright, S. (1989). Forecasting Methods For Management,5 th. Ed, John Wiley, and Sons, Inc. 2. www.cic.nyu.edu/internationalsecurity/docs/nic_final.pdf, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. 3. leveret,hillary Man,(2011),us politics towards Israel&Iran available on raceforiran. comarchive/us polices/29651/access 28 Des www. 4. Snyder/Robert.(1999) The us and Third world revolutionary states:understanding The breakdown in reletions, international studis Quarterly.