QUO VADIS BIOECONOMY?

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1 QUO VADIS BIOECONOMY? BASICS OF BIOECONOMY DR MARIUSZ MACIEJCZAK Projekt UDA-POKL /13-00 Program doskonalenia dydaktyki SGGW w dziedzinie bioekonomii oraz utworzenie kwalifikacji zawodowej Młodszy menadżer jakości Projekt jest finansowany z Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Kapitał Ludzki , Priorytet IV Szkolnictwo wyższe i nauka, Działanie 4.1. Wzmocnienie i rozwój potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni oraz zwiększenie liczby absolwentów kierunków o kluczowym znaczeniu dla gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, Poddziałanie Wzmocnienie potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni

2 Cele Scenarios of bioeconomy development

3 Learning outcomes 01 - The student is able to explain the essence of bio-economy and exchange key problem areas within its framework 02 - The student has the ability to make decisions in the field of bioeconomy using information known from classes 03 - The student is able to analyze problems in the field of bio-economy and to make their critical and creative assessment and formulate solutions for development 04 - The student has the ability to work with others, be creative and demonstrate the ability to work in a team in different roles

4 Plan Development of production and consumption in the world in short term perspective. Development of biotechnology in the world in short term perspective. The use of biomass development in short term perspective. Factors affecting the development of the bioeconomy.

5 Figure 1.6. Growing diversity of crop use. Cereal consumption in developed and developing countries Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

6 Figure 1.7. Most of the growth in meat and fish consumption will occur in developing countries. Livestock consumption in developed and developing countries Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

7 Figure Value of net-exports positive in Americas, Oceania and East Europe. Real value of net-exports of agricultural commodities Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

8 Table 1.1. The largest trade deficits in volume terms in 2023 will occur in Asia and Africa. Volume of net-exports in 2023 ('000 tonnes) Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 Africa Asia and Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean North America Oceania Developed Other Developed Wheat Rice Coarse grains Oilseeds Protein meals Beef Pork Sheep Poultry Fish Fish meal Fish oil Butter Cheese Skim milk powder Whole milk powder Vegetable oils Sugar Cotton Note: For each commodity, the blue shaded areas indicate the regions with largest net exports, with the darkest blue shaded area representing the region with the largest net exports. Conversely, the grey shaded areas indicate the areas with the smallest net exports, with the darkest grey shaded area representing the region with the smallest net exports (largest net imports). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

9 Figure Price trends in nominal terms for agricultural commodities to 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

10 Figure Uncertainty around the world coarse grain price (USD/t) Source: JRC-IPTS, European Commission. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

11 Figure 3.3. Development of the world ethanol market Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

12 Figure 3.4. Regional distributions of world ethanol production and use in 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

13 Figure 3.5. Development of the world biodiesel market Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

14 Figure 3.6. Regional distributions of world biodiesel production and use in 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

15 Figure 3.7. Share of feedstocks used for ethanol production Note: Sugar crops include ethanol produced from sugar cane and from sugar beets Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

16 Figure 3.8. Share of feedstocks used for biodiesel production Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

17 Figure 4.6. Increasing food and feed demand for wheat in developing countries. Evolution of wheat utilisation shares in developed and developing countries between the base year and 2023 Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

18 Figure 4.9. Increasing use of non-conventional feeds led by Dried Distillers's Grains Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

19 Figure 7.6. Yearly meat consumption per capita increases as income levels rise Note: c.w.e. is carcass weight equivalent, r.t.c is ready to cook equivalent. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Version 1 - Last updated: 25-Jun-2014 Poultry Pork kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) 100 kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) y = 10,75ln(x) - 72, y = 6,42ln(x) - 42, USD Income/person/year Beef and veal USD Income/person/year Sheep kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) 60 kg/person/year (c.w.e or r.t.c) y = 3,48ln(x) - 19, y = 1,05ln(x) - 4,02 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook USD Income/person/year USD Income/person/year

20 Bio-economy and sustainability: a potential contribution to the Bio-economy Observatory Report EUR EN 2013

21 Szacowana wartość globalnego łańcucha biomasy do roku 2020 (mld UDS)

22 Szacowana wielkość rynku dla bio-produktów w UE w 2020r.

23 Przewidywany rozwój sektora biotechnologicznego podejście komparatywne

24 Market Projections for US Chemical Products (Total and Biobased) ($US bn) Sector Total Biobased Total Biobased Total Biobased Commodity Speciality Fine Polymer Total 1, , , % 16-28% US bio-based products market potential and projections through 2025 USDA, OCE , February 2008

25 Amyris estimates Addressable Markets for SynBio Products Production efficiency Cosmetics, flavours, fragrances $32b Artemisinin Industrial lubricants $24b Plastics Additives $37b Automotive lubricants $24b Surfactants $22 b Synthetic and natural rubber $13b Bulk polymers $309 b Jet fuel $309 b Diesel $809 b 2013 and beyond

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27 B+R 100% 90% 6% 2% 80% 70% 58% 48% 60% 50% 40% 28% FP7 92% Demonstration Applied research Basic research/fp7 30% 20% 10% 32% 11% 24% 0% China US EU Source: Key Science and Engineering Indicators, National Scientific Board, 2010 Digest, NSF, OECD Research & Development Statistics

28 The challenge: Overcoming the innovation & deployment gap Europe s ability to commercialise / produce high value products lies in its ability to reach demonstration scale of advanced biorefineries to mature technologies

29 Our sectors Stage 1 - Reinforce innovation and extend current infrastructure across the economy

30 The bridges Stage 2 - Build and strengthen value chains across industry sectors

31 The PPP community Stage 3 - Realise a connected biobased economy from field to end consumer

32 Projekt UDA-POKL /13-00 Program doskonalenia dydaktyki SGGW w dziedzinie bioekonomii oraz utworzenie kwalifikacji zawodowej Młodszy menadżer jakości Projekt jest finansowany z Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Kapitał Ludzki , Priorytet IV Szkolnictwo wyższe i nauka, Działanie 4.1. Wzmocnienie i rozwój potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni oraz zwiększenie liczby absolwentów kierunków o kluczowym znaczeniu dla gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, Poddziałanie Wzmocnienie potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni

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34 Perspektywy zrównoważonego rozwoju bioeonomii

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50 Pytania Which sectors of the bio-economy will grow fastest in perspective for 2030? How PPP can support the development of bioeconomy? What factors will influence the development of the bio-economy in the run up to 2030?

51 Literature

52 Thank you Projekt UDA-POKL /13-00 Program doskonalenia dydaktyki SGGW w dziedzinie bioekonomii oraz utworzenie kwalifikacji zawodowej Młodszy menadżer jakości Projekt jest finansowany z Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Kapitał Ludzki , Priorytet IV Szkolnictwo wyższe i nauka, Działanie 4.1. Wzmocnienie i rozwój potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni oraz zwiększenie liczby absolwentów kierunków o kluczowym znaczeniu dla gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, Poddziałanie Wzmocnienie potencjału dydaktycznego uczelni