DOCTOR HONORIS CAUSA OF THE WARSAW SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS FRANS WILLEKENS Warsaw 2018
Editors: Irena E. Kotowska, Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak Translation/proof editing: In English: Aleksandra Tomczyk In Polish: Anita Abramowska-Kmon Cover and Text Design: Magdalena Smyk, Anita Abramowska-Kmon Photo: Frans Willekens Copyright by Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw 2018 Printed by REMI-B
Profesor Frans Willekens
Table of contents SGH Senate Resolution No. 226 of 28 March 2018 on conferring the dignity of SGH Doctor Honoris Causa on Professor Frans Willekens Uchwała nr 226 Senatu SGH z dnia 28 marca 2018 w sprawie nadania tytułu Doctor Honoris Causa SGH Profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi Copy of Doctor Honoris Causa Diploma 10 Introduction by Joanna Plebaniak, Dean of the Collegium of Economic Analyses Wprowadzenie, Joanna Plebaniak, Dziekan Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych Laudatio by Irena E. Kotowska 17 Laudacja, Irena E. Kotowska 25 Acceptance Speech by Frans Willekens 33 Wystąpienie Profesora Fransa Willekensa 43 Review by Jakub Bijak 55 Review by Ewa Frątczak 63 Review by Marek Kupiszewski 73 Recenzja, Jakub Bijak 79 Recenzja, Ewa Frątczak 87 Recenzja, Marek Kupiszewski 97 Curriculum Vitae 105 List of publications 117 7 9 13 15 5
SGH SENATE RESOLUTION No. 226 of 28 March 2018 on conferring the dignity of Doctor Honoris Causa of SGH onto Professor Frans Willekens Pursuant to 8.1 of SGH Statute it has been resolved as follows: 1 SGH Senate confers the dignity of Doctor Honoris Causa onto Professor Frans Willekens. The resolution shall become effective as of the day of passing. 2 7
UCHWAŁA NR 226 SENATU SGH z dnia 28 marca 2018 w sprawie nadania tytułu Doktora Honoris Causa SGH profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi Na podstawie 8 ust. 1 statutu SGH uchwala się, co następuje: 1 Senat SGH nadaje tytuł Doktora Honoris Causa SGH profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi. 2 Uchwała wchodzi w życie z dniem podjęcia. 9
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Introduction by Joanna Plebaniak Dean of the Collegium of Economic Analyses Honourable Rector, Your Excellencies, Dear Professor, Ladies and Gentlemen, The initiative of conferring an honorary doctorate on Professor Frans Willekens originated in the Institute of Statistics and Demography within the Collegium of Economic Analysis of the Warsaw School of Economics. The Scientific Council of the Collegium made a decision to apply to the Senate of the Warsaw School of Economics to initiate the procedure of awarding the doctor honoris causa degree to Professor Frans Willekens in recognition of his extraordinary scientific achievements, his exceptional dedication to the act of organizing an academic community and his impressive contributions to the development of international cooperation. The Council assigned Professor Irena Elżbieta Kotowska, Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography, as the promoter, and as reviewers: Professor Jakub Bijak of University of Southampton, a graduate of our School, Professor Marek Kupiszewski of the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences, and Ewa Frątczak, Professor of the Warsaw School of Economics at the Institute of Statistics and Demography. 13
The Senate of the Warsaw School of Economics accepted the proposal of the Council and initiated the procedure. Having read the reviews, the Senate adopted a resolution to honour Professor Frans Willekens with the doctor honoris causa degree. This resolution indicates our great appreciation for the exceptional work of Professor Willekens and our deep respect for his achievements. While congratulating Professor Frans Willekens, I would like to state my firm belief that today s celebration constitutes a crucial part of the larger process of uniting the European scientific community, and creates a significant element forming the identity of our School. 14
Wprowadzenie Joanna Plebaniak Dziekan Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych Magnificencjo, Wysoki Senacie, Szanowny Panie Profesorze, Panie i Panowie, Inicjatywa nadania Profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi tytułu doktora honoris causa Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie narodziła się w Instytucie Statystyki i Demografii wchodzącym w skład Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych. Rada Naukowa Kolegium, biorąc pod uwagę imponujący dorobek naukowy Profesora Fransa Willekensa, Jego wybitne dokonania w organizowaniu życia naukowego oraz ogromny wkład w rozwijanie współpracy międzynarodowej, postanowiła wystąpić do Senatu Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie z wnioskiem o wszczęcie postępowania o nadanie tytułu doktora honoris causa. Rada zaproponowała na promotora postępowania prof. dr hab. Irenę Elżbietę Kotowską, dyrektora Instytutu Statystyki i Demografii, a na recenzentów prof. Jakuba Bijaka z University of Southampton, absolwenta naszej Uczelni, prof. dr hab. Marka Kupiszewskiego z Instytutu Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania Polskiej Akademii Nauk oraz dr hab. Ewę Frątczak, profesora SGH, z Instytutu Statystyki i Demografii. 15
Senat SGH zaakceptował propozycję Rady i wszczął postępowanie. Następnie po zapoznaniu się z recenzjam w dniu 28 marca 2018 roku przyjął uchwałę o nadaniu Profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi tytułu doktora honoris causa Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie. Uchwała ta stanowi wyraz naszego wielkiego uznania dla dorobku Profesora oraz głębokiego szacunku dla Jego dokonań. Gratulując serdecznie Profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi, chciałabym wyrazić przekonanie, że dzisiejsza uroczystość jest niezwykle ważnym akcentem procesu jednoczenia się europejskiej społeczności naukowej, a także a może przede wszystkim, stanowi istotny element tworzący tożsamość naszej Uczelni. 16
Laudatio by Irena E. Kotowska Institute of Statistics and Demography Collegium of Economic Analysis Your Magnificence, Honourable Senate, Dear Professor, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted and honoured to deliver this laudatio for Professor Frans Willekens, a great thinker and scientist. Through his remarkable achievements in methodology of population studies and shifts in research perspective he has contributed to changes in demography as a discipline, its rank among social sciences, and conditions for research on population in Europe. He also defines new prospects for demography by formulating a proposal to shift from typological approach, the paradigm used today in demography, to population thinking, the new paradigm, which refers to population heterogeneity. This issue which reflects reconceptualization of demography as a population science is presented in detail in the lecture delivered by the Laureate. I am also moved because plans made together with Professor Janina Jóźwiak, the Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography from 1999 to 2016, came true. They regarded honouring the merits of Frans Willekens with the doctor honoris causa degree from the Warsaw School of Economics in recognition of his contributions to the development of demography, integration of European research community and support for the efforts of the Institute made towards the development of population studies in Poland. After her passing away in 2016 I 17
considered it as my commitment. Moreover, it was contacts with Frans Willekens and Dirk J. Van de Kaa, the 2003 WSE doctor honoris causa laureate, which influenced both my own scientific choices as a young demographer in the 1990s and the decisions made by Professor Janina Jóźwiak. Frans Willekens is Professor Emeritus at the University of Groningen, where he has worked since 1989. This is where he established the Population Research Centre, a unit conducting research on the issues of population, which offers an international educational programme in Demography at Master s and PhD levels. Between 1980 and 1993 he held a position of a Deputy Director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), a leading demographic institute in Europe and served as its Director from 2003 to 2011. Having reached the retirement age in 2011 he did not resign from remaining active between 2013 and 2016 he managed a research group in the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research which dealt with international migrations (Research Group on International Migration), and between 2014 and 2016 he coordinated research studies in the Institute. Currently he is an honorary member of NIDI. Since 1998 he has been a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). In the early stages of his professional career Frans Willekens was employed in the Technological Institute at Northwestern University, USA, working with professor Andrei Rogers, to whom we owe the development of population processes modelling (1973-1975). He then conducted research in Andrei Rogers team in the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria (1975-1978). Andrei Rogers was the superviser of his PhD thesis Analytics of regional population distribution policy, defended in 1976. Frans Willekens applied the knowledge gained while working there in coordinating studies on regional and urban development planning in Mens en Ruimte and the European Research Institute for Regional and Urban Planning in Brussels (1978-1980). Already while studying at the university he displayed diverse interests: he studied both economics and sociology at the University of Leuven and graduated with a Master s degree in Agricultural Engineering, majoring in Tropical Agriculture (1970). Main areas of Professor s interests are related to demographic modelling and forecasting, especially multistate models of population dynamics and event history 18
analysis, simulation models, studies on international migration, and reconceptualization of demography as a population science. His works on multistate models, including multiregional models, constituted a foundation for the development of models of multistate demography. He pioneered in estimation of demographic model parameters on pure data and building projection models based on micro-macro approach. The monography Spatial Population Analysis: Methods and Computer Programs (1978), written together with Andrei Rogers, is considered to be a groundbreaking piece of work in the development of multistate models. His articles Multistate demography (2003) and Biographic forecasting: Bridging the micromacro gap in population forecasting (2005) have made a similar impact. Today s migration models base on concepts presented in his publications, and his indications concerning monitoring of international migrations in Europe given over 20 years ago still remain valid. ( Monitoring international migration in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources, 1994). Frans Willekens was among the first to apply the life-course perspective in population studies in searching for better understanding of demographic behaviours ( The life course: models and analysis, 1999). He significantly developed methods of analyzing such behaviours using multistate demography. His long-standing efforts in this field were crowned by publications such as the book Multistate analysis of life histories with R (2014) or a collection of articles as Special Collection of Demographic Research entitled Multistate Event History Analysis (2014), which he co-edited. His impact on the shift of the paradigm of demographic research, defined as transitions from structures to processes, from macro to micro, from analysis to synthesis, and from certainty to uncertainty is undeniable. In recent years, when searching for explanations of demographic behaviours occurring in a given context, Frans Willekens has used agent-based models, which enable modelling of the life course of individuals functioning in particular social groups, simultaneously applying theoretical concepts of social sciences and life sciences. Being in charge of a panel Microsimulation and Agent-based Modeling, formed by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (2015-2018), Frans Willekens shapes the ongoing debate over reconceptualization of demography as population science (co-editor and co-author of a collection The Science of Choice. A special issue (supplement) of Population Studies, 2017, Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges, 2016). This debate led to emergence of a 19
need for a major shift in population research paradigm, postulated by Professor Willekens in his works, the core of which is population heterogeneity. Interdisciplinary approach of Frans Willekens to population studies is also visible through his cooperation with scientists of various backgrounds, representing versatile disciplines or groups of disciplines (geography, urban studies, economics, sociology, life sciences). He has continually influenced the development of such cooperation while managing research units and serving as a member of numerous advisory bodies and institutions assessing results of research groups. Reviewers of scientific achievements of Frans Willekens pinpointed that in his nearly 50-year-long career he laid new foundations for empirical research and creation of databases which offered new prospects for population studies, as well as for the possibility of analysing demographic processes (E. Frątczak, M. Kupiszewski). Frans Willekens is a thinker and a researcher whose impressive accomplishments both due to their significance and his approach to problem solving as well as the number of his publications 1 refer not only to demography but also constitute exceptional research record in the domain of social sciences in general. His ideas initiated creation of research fields which today are considered to be setting standards for research issues and methods applied to analyzing them. To conclude, the work of Professor Willekens chiefly methodological, but also substantive was instrumental in setting the intellectual agenda and research programme for the discipline, and swiftly responding to the key methodological challenges. In that respect, his track record is epitomic of what Daniel Courgeau and Robert Franck (2007) referred to as paradigmatic cumulativity of demographic knowledge: building on the past, but not discarding it (J. Bijak). 1 The publication record of Frans Willekens includes 223 positions, among them: five books, 63 articles, 72 chapters in books, 11 invited reports on science policy, and 53 published research reports. He coedited two books, which synthetize achievements in selected research fields ( Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Ageing in China (2016), Special Collection of Demographic Research Multistate Event History Analysis (2014) and co-edited and co-authored a collection The Science of Choice. A special issue (supplement) of Population Studies, (2017). 20
Professor Frans Willekens has tirelessly worked on constant development of demographic research and integration of demographic research community in Europe, serving as an active member of international demographic associations (European Association for Population Studies, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Population Association of America) and working for numerous editing organizations. He is one of editors of Population Studies, a magazine ranked among the top ten demographic publications in the world, and a member of an editorial board of European Journal of Population and China Population and Development Studies. In addition to this, he co-created Population Europe European Population Partnership, an institution founded in June 2009 as a network of 20 population research units in order to integrate the population research community in Europe, as well as promote and popularize research results. Today the number of research institutes from various European countries forming Population Europe amounts to 30 and its position is constantly strengthening. His passion for the development of research on population issues can be observed not only in his own research activity but also in education of young researchers both in Europe and beyond. Apart from regular lectures given at Master s and PhD levels at various European universities on subjects reflecting his deep knowledge of demography and links between this science and other disciplines, he also gave numerous guest lectures at universities across the world (including China, North Korea, India, Pakistan or Mexico) and he conducted seminars and courses on behalf of various international organizations (UNFPA, IIASA, IOM). He promoted 39 PhD theses written by doctoral students from all over the world. His proteges are among top European demographers. What we owe to Professor Frans Willekens is a fundamental shift in education of demographers in Europe. For many years (2003-2016) he supervised the works in the Committee on Education within the European Association of Population Studies, whose aim was to set and monitor educational standards for specialists in demography on Master s and PhD levels in Europe. He initiated foundation of the European Doctoral School of Demography in 2005 and has been leading its Scientific Council since its creation. This School has not only contributed to unifying educational standards and raising quality of education of young 21
population researchers in Europe but it also led to sparking interest in such education among young scientists from outside Europe. Thanks to cooperation with international community where Professor Frans Willekens occupies an exceptional position, population studies constitute a crucial area of scientific and research activity of the Warsaw School of Economics, and the team of demographers from the Institute of Statistics and Demography (ISD) mark their presence in activities connected with the development of demography and population studies in Europe. The Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), based in the Hague, has played a particularly important role in this process. First contacts between demographers from ISiD and Frans Willekens were initiated in the 1980s, when he was the Deputy Director of NIDI, and Dirk Van de Kaa was the Director. NIDI offered scholarships to young demographers. Undeniably, such visits at NIDI influenced areas of interest of people who had the privilege of benefitting from such an opportunity (e.g. Professor Janina Jóźwiak, Professor Teresa Słaby, Professor Ewa Frątczak, Ewa Tabeau, PhD, and the author of this laudatio). The opportunity of discussions with Frans Willekens, both during visits in the Hague and during his lectures at the Warsaw School of Economics, given as part of the International Training Workshop on the Use of Population Projections for Socio-Economic Planning, a programme of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities for participants from developing countries organized several times, has also made a significant contribution to development of these researchers interests. Frans Willekens was interested not only in research conducted in the Institute, engaging in long disputes and offering advice on our scientific searches, but he also kindly supported our presence in the international scientific environment. The 1990s brought, apart from the traditional scientific cooperation, new forms of contacts both through EAPS and cooperation connected with regular population conferences (two were organized in Poland, in 1997 and 2003). At the time when the Polish higher education system was being reformed our discussions revolved around functioning of universities and organization of research. Frans Willekens was for us a source of knowledge about the university and science management benchmarks, as well as values crucial to preserve in our professional activity and beyond it. In the following decade our cooperation also concerned the aspects of educating demographers. ISD participated in creation of the European Doctoral School of Demography, and 22
two editions of this programme were held at the Warsaw School of Economics (2013-2015). What is more, PhD students specializing in demographic projections had an opportunity of consulting their work with Frans Willekens and his coworkers. In 2015 Frans accepted an invitation from the Committee on Demographic Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences to make a keynote speech at a conference for young demographers in Poznań and participated in discussions after their presentations. Reviewers unanimously agree that Professor Frans Willekens is an outstanding scientist and leader, whose vision of the development of science through cooperation of researchers representing various disciplines as well as proper education of new generations has permanently changed demography in Europe and its position on a global scale. He is a lecturer with passion for sharing his knowledge, sensitive to diversified opportunities of access to education. He is demanding but at the same time he supports others efforts in meeting high standards in education and research with kindness. His outstanding achievements in all areas of his activity were honoured with a royal medal Officer in the Order of Orange-Nassau in 2011. In 2014 Professor Frans Willekens was distinguished with an EAPS Award for Population Studies. By conferring the honorary doctorate of the Warsaw School of Economics on Professor Frans Willekens the Rector, the Senate and our academic community express their deep appreciation for his scientific achievements and lasting contribution to the development and strengthening of demography in Europe, as well as integration of the European demographers community. In this way we also manifest our gratitude to Frans Willekens for his support for developing population studies in Poland, and in particular for enhancing the position of the ISD at the international level. References Klabunde, A., Willekens, F. (2016) Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges. European Journal of Population, 32(1): 73 97. 23
Willekens, F. (1999) The Life Course: Models and Analysis. In: L.J.G. van Wissen and P.A. Dykstra (eds) Population Issues. Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. New York: Plenum. Willekens, F. (2005) Biographic Forecasting: Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap in Population Forecasting. New Zealand Population Review, 31(1): 77 124. Willekens, F., Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, A., Bijak, J., Klabunde, A. (eds). Special Issue of Population Studies: The science of choice (publication scheduled 2017). Outcome of workshop The science of choice, Special Issue of Population Studies: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, October 2015. Willekens, F., Putter, H. (eds) (2014) Special Collection of Demographic Research Multistate event history analysis. Outcome of workshop Multistate models: bridging biostatistics, demography and econometrics. Leiden, March 2014. Willekens, F., Rogers, A. (1978) Spatial Population Analysis: Methods and Computer Programs. IIASA Working Paper WP-78-030. Laxenburg: IIASA. 24
Laudacja Irena E. Kotowska Instytut Statystyki i Demografii Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych Magnificencjo, Wysoki Senacie, Drogi Profesorze, Panie i Panowie, Jestem zaszczycona możliwością wygłoszenia laudacji dla Profesora Fransa Willekensa, wybitnego uczonego i myśliciela. Poprzez rozwój metod analiz oraz reorientację perspektywy badawczej przyczynił się do zasadniczej zmiany demografii jako dyscypliny naukowej, jej miejsca wśród nauk społecznych oraz warunków jej uprawiania w Europie. Określa on także nowe perspektywy rozwoju demografii, postulując odejście od typological approach, stosowanego dotychczas paradygmatu badawczego, na rzecz population thinking, ujmującego bezpośrednio heterogeniczność populacji. Tej kwestii będzie poświęcony wykład Laureata. Jestem także wzruszona, bo spełnia się wspólne postanowienie podjęte z prof. Janiną Jóźwiak, dyrektorką Instytutu Statystyki i Demografii w latach 1999-2016, by zasługi Fransa Willekensa dla rozwoju demografii, integracji środowiska badaczy europejskich i wspierania wysiłków Instytutu w rozwoju badań ludnościowych w Polsce uhonorować tytułem doktora honoris causa SGH. Po śmierci Profesor w 2016 roku traktowałam to jako zobowiązanie. Po drugie, to kontakty z Fransem Willekensem i Dirkiem J. Van de Kaa, laureatem doktora honoris causa SGH z 2003 roku, wpłynęły na wybory naukowe, jakich 25
dokonywałam w latach 1980. jako początkujący demograf, podobnie jak na decyzje podejmowane przez Janinę. Frans Willekens jest emerytowanym profesorem University of Groningen, gdzie pracował od 1989 roku. Utworzył tam Population Research Centre, jednostkę prowadzącą badania procesów ludnościowych, która oferowała międzynarodowy program kształcenia z demografii na poziomie magisterskim i doktorskim. W latach 1980-1993 był wicedyrektorem Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), czołowego instytutu demograficznego w Europie, a następnie w latach 2003-2011 jego dyrektorem. Po osiągnięciu wieku emerytalnego w 2011 r., nadal jest czynny zawodowo - w latach 2013-2016 kierował w Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research zespołem badawczym, który zajmował się migracjami międzynarodowymi (Research Group on International Migration), a w latach 2014-2016 pełnił funkcję koordynatora badań w Instytucie. Obecnie jest członkiem honorowym w NIDI. Od 1998 roku jest członkiem Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). U progu swojej biografii zawodowej Frans Willekens był zatrudniony w Technological Institute, Northwestern University, USA, pracując u prof. Andreia Rogersa, któremu zawdzięczamy rozwój modelowania procesów ludnościowych (1973-1975). Następnie prowadził badania w zespole prof. Andreia Rogersa w International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria (1975-1978). Prof. Andrei Rogers był promotorem jego pracy doktorskiej Analytics of regional population distribution policy, obronionej w 1976 roku. Wiedzę zdobytą tam Frans Willekens wykorzystał w kierowaniu badaniami w zakresie planowania rozwoju regionalnego i rozwoju miast w instytucie Mens en Ruimte oraz European Research Institute for Regional and Urban Planning w Brukseli (1978-1980). Już w czasie studiów wykazywał wielostronne zainteresowania studiował ekonomię i socjologię na University of Leuven, a magisterium ukończył na kierunku Agricultural Engineering, specjalność Tropical Agriculture (1970). Główne obszary zainteresowań Profesora dotyczą modelowania demograficznego i prognozowania, w tym modeli wielostanowych dynamiki ludności oraz analizy historii zdarzeń, modeli symulacyjnych, badań migracji międzynarodowych, a także rekonceptualizacji demografii jako nauki o procesach ludnościowych. Jego prace dotyczące modeli wielostanowych, w tym modeli wieloregionalnych, stanowiły 26
podwaliny rozwoju modeli demografii wielostanowej. Był także pionierem szacowania parametrów modeli demograficznych na podstawie niepełnych danych oraz formułowania modeli projekcyjnych, które łączą perspektywę indywidualną ze skalą makro. Monografia Spatial Population Analysis: Methods and Computer Programs (1978), którą napisał razem z Andreiem Rogersem, jest uznawana za przełomowe dzieło w rozwoju modeli wielostanowych. Podobnie postrzegane są jego artykuły Multistate demography (2003) and Biographic forecasting: Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting (2005). Współczesne modele migracyjne korzystają z ujęć zaproponowanych w jego publikacjach, a jego wskazania dotyczące monitorowania migracji zagranicznych w Europie formułowane ponad 20 lat temu pozostają aktualne ( Monitoring international migration in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources, 1994). Profesor był jednym z prekursorów stosowania perspektywy przebiegu życia (lifecourse perspective) w badaniach procesów ludnościowych w celu zrozumienia zachowań demograficznych ( The life course: models and analysis, 1999). Znacząco rozwinął metody analiz tych zachowań, korzystając z demografii wielostanowej. Jego wieloletnie prace w tym nurcie wieńczą publikacje takie jak książka Multistate analysis of life histories with R (2014) czy zbiór artykułów Special Collection of Demographic Research pod tytułem Multistate Event History Analysis (2014), który współredagował. Jego wpływ na zmianę paradygmatu badań demograficznych, określaną jako przejście od badań struktur do badań procesów, od poziomu makro do poziomu mikro, od analizy do syntezy oraz od pewności do niepewności jest niepodważalny. W ostatnich latach poszukując wyjaśnień zachowań demograficznych dokonujących się w określonym kontekście, Frans Willekens sięga do modeli wieloagentowych (agent-based models), które umożliwiają modelowanie przebiegu życia jednostek funkcjonujących w określonych grupach społecznych przy jednoczesnym sięganiu do koncepcji teoretycznych różnych dyscyplin nauk społecznych i nauk o życiu. Kierując panelem Microsimulation and Agent-based Modeling, powołanym przez International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (2015-2018), Profesor kształtuje toczącą się debatę nad rekonceptualizacją demografii jako nauki o procesach ludnościowych (współredaktor i współautor zbioru publikacji The Science of Choice. A special issue (supplement) of Population Studies, 2017, Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges, 2016). Z tego nurtu dyskusyjnego wyłania 27
się konieczność zasadniczej zmiany paradygmatu badań ludnościowych, którą Profesor postuluje w swych pracach, a jej istotą jest uwzględnianie heterogeniczności ludzkich zbiorowości. Interdyscyplinarne podejście Profesora Willekensa do badań procesów ludnościowych przejawia się także poprzez jego współpracę z naukowcami reprezentującymi różne dyscypliny czy grupy dyscyplin (geografia, urbanistyka, nauki ekonomiczne, socjologia, psychologia, nauki o życiu). Nieustannie wpływał na rozwój takiej współpracy, pełniąc funkcje kierownicze w wiodących jednostkach naukowych oraz będąc członkiem licznych ciał doradczych czy oceniających wyniki zespołów badawczych. Recenzenci osiągnięć naukowych Profesora Fransa Willekensa zwracali uwagę na to, iż w trakcie swojej blisko 50-letniej aktywności naukowej stworzył nowe podstawy badań empirycznych i tworzenia baz danych, które otwierały zarówno nowe perspektywy badań ludnościowych jak możliwości analiz procesów demograficznych (E. Frątczak, M. Kupiszewski). Jest badaczem i myślicielem, którego imponujące dokonania zarówno ze względu na rangę i sposób podejmowania problemów jak i liczbę publikacji 2 dotyczą nie tylko demografii jest to wybitny dorobek w obszarze nauk społecznych. Jego idee przyczyniły się do powstania nowych obszarów badań, obecnie uznawanych za tworzące standard problemów badawczych i metod ich analiz. Reasumując, prace Profesora Willekensa głównie metodologiczne, ale także teoretyczne stały się kluczowe dla wyznaczania kierunku rozwoju badań ludnościowych w odpowiedzi na pojawiające się wyzwania badawcze. Jego dorobek znakomicie ilustruje więc to, co Daniel Courgeau i Robert Franck (2007) określili jako kumulatywność wiedzy demograficznej, gdzie nowe paradygmaty powstają poprzez twórcze rozwijanie wątków z przeszłości, a nie pozbywanie się ich (J. Bijak). Frans Willekens niestrudzenie działał na rzecz rozwoju badań demograficznych oraz integracji środowiska demograficznego w Europie, będąc czynnym członkiem 2 Dorobek publikacyjny Profesora Fransa Willekensa obejmuje 223 pozycje, w tym: 5 książek, 63 artykuły, 72 rozdziały w książkach, 11 raportów na zaproszenie dotyczących polityki naukowej oraz 53 opublikowanych raportów z badań. Jest także współredaktorem dwóch książek, syntetyzujących dorobek badawczy w wybranych obszarach ( Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Ageing in China (2016), Special Collection of Demographic Research Multistate Event History Analysis (2014)) oraz współredaktorem i współautorem zbioru publikacji The Science of Choice. A special issue (supplement) of Population Studies, (2017). 28
międzynarodowych stowarzyszeń demograficznych (European Association for Population Studies, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Population Association of America) oraz pracując na rzecz licznych gremiów wydawniczych. Profesor jest jednym z redaktorów czasopisma Population Studies, będącego w pierwszej dziesiątce czasopism demograficznych na świecie, jest członkiem komitetu redakcyjnego European Journal of Population oraz China Population and Development Studies. Jest też współzałożycielem Population Europe European Population Partnership, instytucji powołanej w czerwcu 2009 roku jako sieć 20 jednostek prowadzących badania procesów ludnościowych w celu integracji badaczy procesów demograficznych w Europie, promocji i upowszechniania wyników tych badań. Obecnie liczba instytutów badawczych z różnych krajów europejskich tworzących Population Europe wzrosła do 30, a pozycja tego forum stale się umacnia. Jego pasja działania na rzecz rozwoju badań nad procesami ludnościowymi przejawia się nie tylko poprzez własną aktywność badawczą, ale także poprzez kształcenie młodych badaczy, przy czym Profesor nie ogranicza się do Europy. Oprócz regularnych wykładów prowadzonych na studiach magisterskich i doktoranckich na różnych uczelniach europejskich z przedmiotów świadczących o jego głębokiej znajomości demografii i jej powiązań z innymi dyscyplinami, wygłaszał też liczne wykłady na zaproszenie uniwersytetów z całego świata (w tym z Chin, Korei Płn., Indii, Pakistanu czy Meksyku) oraz prowadził seminaria szkoleniowe oraz kursy pod auspicjami organizacji międzynarodowych (UNFPA, IIASA, IOM). Jest promotorem 39 prac doktorskich przygotowanych przez doktorantów z całego świata, a jego podopieczni są w czołówce badaczy europejskich. Profesorowi Willekensowi zawdzięczamy fundamentalną zmianę w kształceniu demografów w Europie. Kierował przez wiele lat (2003 2016) pracami Committee on Education w ramach European Association of Population Studies, który zajmował się standardami kształcenia specjalistów z demografii na poziomie magisterskim i doktoranckim w Europie. Był inicjatorem utworzenia European Doctoral School of Demography w 2005 roku i kieruje jej Radą Naukową. Szkoła ta nie tylko przyczyniła się do ujednolicenia standardów kształcenia i podniesienia jakości kształcenia młodych badaczy procesów ludnościowych z krajów 29
europejskich. Wzrosło też zainteresowanie tym kształceniem wśród młodych naukowców spoza Europy. Dzięki współpracy ze środowiskiem międzynarodowym, w którym Profesor Frans Willekens zajmuje wyjątkową pozycję, badania procesów ludnościowych są bardzo istotnym elementem aktywności naukowej SGH, a zespół demografów z Instytutu Statystyki i Demografii (ISiD) zaznacza swą obecność w aktywnościach związanych z rozwojem demografii i badań ludnościowych w Europie. Szczególną rolę odgrywał i nadal odgrywa w nich Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) w Hadze. Pierwsze kontakty demografów z ISiD z Fransem nawiązane zostały w latach 1980., kiedy dyrektorem NIDI był Dirk Van de Kaa, a wicedyrektorem Frans Willekens. NIDI oferował młodym demografom stypendia na pobyty naukowe. Niewątpliwie pobyt w NIDI wpłynął na zainteresowania naukowe osób, które miały szanse z tego skorzystać (np. prof. Janina Jóźwiak, prof. Teresa Słaby, prof. Ewa Frątczak, dr Ewa Tabeau czy autorka tej laudacji), podobnie jak rozmowy z Fransem zarówno podczas pobytów w Hadze jak i w czasie jego wizyt jako wykładowcy w Warszawie w ramach organizowanego kilkakrotnie International Training Workshop on the Use of Population Projections for Socio-Economic Planning, programu United Nations Fund for Population Activities dla uczestników z krajów rozwijających się. Frans interesował się wówczas nie tylko badaniami prowadzonymi w Instytucie, prowadząc długie dysputy i służąc radą w naszych poszukiwaniach naukowych, ale także życzliwie wspierał naszą obecność w środowisku międzynarodowym. Lata 1990. przyniosły - oprócz tradycyjnej współpracy naukowej - nowe formy kontaktów zarówno poprzez EAPS i współpracę związaną z regularnymi konferencjami ludnościowymi (dwie były zorganizowane w Polsce 1997 i 2003). W tym okresie, kiedy reformowano system szkolnictwa wyższego, nasze dyskusje dotyczyły także funkcjonowania uniwersytetów i organizacji badań. Frans był dla nas źródłem wiedzy o najlepszych wzorcach zarządzania nauką, a także o wartościach, których należy strzec nie tylko w naszych działaniach zawodowych. W następnej dekadzie nasza współpraca dotyczyła także kształcenia demografów. ISiD uczestniczył w tworzeniu European Doctoral School of Demography, a dwie edycje tego programu były realizowane w SGH (2013-2015). Ponadto doktoranci specjalizujący się w prognozowaniu demograficznym z ISiD korzystali z możliwości konsultowania swych prac z Profesorem i jego współpracownikami. 30
W 2015 roku Profesor przyjął zaproszenie Komitetu Nauk Demograficznych PAN, by wygłosić referat plenarny na konferencji młodych demografów w Poznaniu i uczestniczyć w dyskusjach nad ich prezentacjami. W zgodnej ocenie recenzentów Profesor Frans Willekens jest wybitnym uczonym i liderem naukowym, którego wizja rozwoju nauki także poprzez współpracę badaczy reprezentujących różne dyscypliny oraz odpowiednie kształcenie kolejnych generacji trwale zmieniła demografię w Europie i jej pozycję w skali globalnej. Jest nauczycielem z pasją przekazywania wiedzy, wrażliwym na zróżnicowane szanse udziału w dostępie do kształcenia. Wymaga wiele i jednocześnie życzliwie wspiera wysiłki innych, by sprostać wysokim standardom w badaniach i edukacji. Wyjątkowe osiągnięcia w każdym z wymiarów jego działalności zostały uhonorowane w 2011 roku królewskim odznaczeniem Officer in the Order of Orange-Nassau. W 2014 roku Profesor Frans Willekens otrzymał nagrodę EAPS Award for Population Studies. Przyznając tytuł doktora honoris causa SGH Profesorowi Fransowi Willekensowi, Rektor, Senat i społeczność uczelni wyraża swe głębokie uznanie dla jego osiągnięć naukowych oraz trwałego wkładu w rozwój i wzmocnienie demografii w Europie, a także integrację środowiska demografów w Europie oraz podziękowanie za wsparcie rozwoju demografii w Polsce, w tym wspieranie silnej pozycji ISiD na forum międzynarodowym. Bibliografia Klabunde, A., Willekens, F. (2016) Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges. European Journal of Population, 32(1): 73 97. Willekens, F. (1999) The Life Course: Models and Analysis. In: L.J.G. van Wissen and P.A. Dykstra (eds) Population Issues. Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. New York: Plenum. Willekens, F. (2005) Biographic Forecasting: Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap in Population Forecasting. New Zealand Population Review, 31(1): 77 124. Willekens, F., Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, A., Bijak, J., Klabunde, A. (eds). Special Issue of Population Studies: The science of choice (publication scheduled 2017). Outcome of workshop The science of choice, Special Issue of Population 31
Studies: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, October 2015. Willekens, F., Putter, H. (eds) (2014) Special Collection of Demographic Research Multistate event history analysis. Outcome of workshop Multistate models: bridging biostatistics, demography and econometrics. Leiden, March 2014. Willekens, F., Rogers, A. (1978) Spatial Population Analysis: Methods and Computer Programs. IIASA Working Paper WP-78-030. Laxenburg: IIASA. 32
Acceptance Speech on the Occasion of Award of Degree of Doctor Honoris Causa, Warsaw School of Economics by Frans Willekens Rector Magnificus Rocki, Honourable Colleagues, Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is with deep appreciation and humility that I accept this great honour. I am grateful to Rector Magnificus Rocki, the Senate of the Warsaw School of Economics and the members of the reviewer committee. I would like to express special thanks to Irena Kotowska and her colleagues at the Institute of Statistics and Demography for the initiative, their enthusiasm and hard work to turn an idea into reality. I am particularly happy because the event marks the 40 th anniversary of the Institute of Statistics and Demography. In 1978 Professor Holzer established the institute. He attracted bright young people, offered guidance and made them discover and use their best qualities in teaching and research. It is the capability approach avant la lettre. In 1983, he established, with Dirk van de Kaa, Guillaume Wunsch and others, the European Association for Population Studies (EAPS). He used his connections to pave the way for young Polish researchers to participate in international projects and show their talents to colleagues abroad. In 1985 he sent Janina Jóźwiak to NIDI in The Hague to work with me on multistate modeling, something I learned from Andrei Rogers in the United States. Janina s research resulted in her habilitation. An extended version of her book was later published in English. Janina followed in Professor Holzer footsteps. She worked energetically and skilfully to strengthen the position of demography in Poland and Europe and to offer opportunities to 33
young and promising scientists to work with and learn from international teams. Science is an activity without borders that is open to anyone from anywhere who is willing to explore an uncharted territory, to learn from others irrespective of background or affiliation, and to use up-to-date research and technology to turn ideas and observations (data) into knowledge. Professor Holzer, Janina and the members of their teams made population science in Poland a success. The team also helped turn demography in Europe into a success story. I already mentioned that Professor Holzer was a founding father of EAPS. For thirtheen years (1995-2008), Janina was sitting on the Council of EAPS, serving as Vice-President for four years and as President for five years. She brought the European Population Conference to Poland twice: in 1997 and 2003. In 2005, she and colleagues established the European Doctoral School of Demography (EDSD) and in 2013 Janina brought the EDSD to Warsaw thereby strengthening the involvement of Polish population scientists in the training of future generations of demographers in Europe. Her experience as Rector of the Warsaw School of Economics (1993-1999) and the hard work of our Polish colleagues greatly contributed to the successes of EAPS and EDSD. Janina was someone you could turn to for leadership. She inspired but did not impose. Just a few of her words were sufficient to foster intrinsic motivation and offer guidance. On July 19, 2016 Janina passed away. It is a huge loss. Janina continues to inspire and provide guidance, no longer through her words and actions, but through the core values she displayed. In 1987, I came to Poland for the first time and I would return every year for a number of years (1987-1990) to teach in a programme on population projections Professor Holzer initiated for professionals of mainly socialist countries in Africa, Asia and Europe. It was a unique experience. The programme was funded by the United Nations. What impressed me as a deputy director of NIDI at that time was that Professor Holzer had managed to get UNFPA to fund an entire computer lab with around 20 desktop computers. A little earlier I had managed to get external funding for one desktop, NIDI s first desktop computer. Another interesting observation was that the computers were used not only by participants of the workshop, but also by academics of the School to enhance their research. I met other colleagues at the Institute of Statistics and Demography. Irena Kotowska, Ewa Frątczak and Ewa Tabeau to name a few. I met other colleagues at the Central School of Planning and Statistics (which was the School s name at that time) and 34
colleagues at the university and the Polish Academy of Sciences. During the second half of the 1980s, social movement for political change in Poland was becoming stronger and stronger. It resulted, among other, in bringing back Solidarność to its legal status as a trade union in April 1989, and the parliamentary election in June 1989 which marked the start of a political and economic transformation. The discussion we had on the meaning of shared values and how to build a common interest in support of these values, were enlightening. I am grateful for that experience. Demography has changed considerably since the 1980s. Demography is about population composition and how it changes in time. A population is composed of individuals and, although those individuals have many things in common, they also differ in fundamental ways. That is what population diversity is about. All populations are diverse or heterogeneous. Some differences can be observed and measured, but other differences that matter are hidden. They are latent and constitute the so-called unobserved heterogeneity. The diversity extends beyond age, sex, ethnicity and religion. Since demography was established as a discipline in the 17 th century, demographers have stratified populations by age and sex or gender. Age has also been used as a stratification variable. Age does not explain anything. It is a time scale. Age marks the position in the life course. That explains why the attention of demographers shifted from a focus on age to a focus on the life course along timelines of age and cohort and why the life course became the dominant paradigm in demography. How to make sense of population diversity and how to predict population diversity into the future? The simplest approach is to neglect it or to assume that one or two variables with a few categories each are sufficient to capture individual differences. That is a common approach in demography and the other social sciences. It is the typological approach. It classifies and studies by comparing class averages. The approach was advocated by Quetelet (1835), who proposed the concept of average man and considered deviations from the average as accidental and a nuisance. He also went further and claimed that the average man is the archetype of perfection (Mosselmans, 2005, p. 569). Quetelet found that individual characteristics are usually normally distributed around a mean value, which led to his conclusion that it is sufficient to consider mean values. There is no need to consider the entire distribution. That approach to diversity is adopted in regression analysis, where a 35
difference between an individual characteristic and the expected or true value of that characteristic in a group is viewed as an error, often a measurement error. It could be a measurement error, but it could also be an expression of the fact that individuals are unique. About 60 years ago, Ernst Mayr (1959) wrote an influential paper claiming that the typological approach is wrong. We should not classify people since every individual is unique. When we want to explain population change, we should not disregard that uniqueness. Mayr was a biologist interested in evolution. Some individuals adapt better to an environment than others and differences in the ability to adapt have far-reaching consequences for population dynamics. The perspective that individuals are unique and should not be represented or replaced by a group average is known as population thinking, a concept introduced by Mayr. Mayr was not the first to propose these ideas. He attributes this shift from typological to population thinking to Darwin (1859), who found that lasting changes in a population are a consequence of differences between individuals and a selection process that acts on the individual variation, not on average characteristics. Individual variability and selection are the key concepts needed to explain population-level phenomena. It is well-known that Darwin was inspired by Malthus s theory of population. If food supply is insufficient to support population growth, as Malthus claimed, some people will be undernourished and will die prematurely. Who will die and who will survive? That is not the question Malthus addressed. It is the question Darwin addressed. It depends on who gets the food and who doesn t. Malthus was interested in the factors that suppress population growth if food is in short supply, the so-called checks on population growth. Darwin wanted to find out who survives and who doesn t, and why. Darwin was familiar with Quetelet s work, but he felt that classification and stratification are not sufficient to explain population change (Ariew 2007). Population thinking had a major influence on the life sciences and social sciences and continues to do so. In 1909, Schumpeter introduced the term methodological individualism to describe the doctrine that economic and social phenomena should be understood in terms of actions of individuals and interactions between individuals (Schumpeter 1909; for a discussion of the history of the concept, see Hodgson 2007). Schumpeter was not interested in food supply and its impact on population change. He was interested in the impact of ideas on economic growth 36
and development. Ideas are generated by individuals. Most ideas lead nowhere, but some lead to innovation and are incorporated in production processes. That innovation makes prevailing production processes obsolete. They are replaced by new modes of production that incorporate the innovation. That replacement mechanism leads to economic development. Ideas are more likely to emerge in a diverse population than in a homogeneous population, where everyone is a clone or identical twin of his or her neighbour. A selection mechanism determines which ideas lead to innovation in a race with many losers and a few winners. Schumpeter was influenced by Max Weber, who has been very influential in the social sciences. Recently, Goldthorpe referred to Weber and Mayr when he claimed that sociology is a population science in need for population thinking (Goldthorpe, 2016). A similar perspective on sociology had emerged earlier without explicit reference to population thinking (see e.g. Coleman, 1991; Hedström and Schwedberg, 1998). In demography, a debate emerged on the reconceptualization of demography as a population science with population thinking as its core (e.g. Vaupel et al., 1979; Billari, 2006, 2015; Kraeger, 2009; Matysiak and Vignoli, 2012; Van Bavel and Grow, 2017). Schumpeter s ideas led to evolutionary economics (see e.g. Andersen, 2004). Metcalfe (2001) calls population thinking the core of evolutionary economics. The distinguishing feature of that core is that it is concerned with populations of entities and that evolutionary processes cause selective survival, thereby changing the statistical properties of those populations (Metcalfe, 2001, p. 150). Variety, Metcalfe continues, is not an interfering complication that hides the underlying reality (the perspective of typological thinkers), it is the underlying reality and it is the prerequisite for change. These views may inspire demography and integrate population thinking also in evolutionary demography, which has taken a different path 3. 3 The Evolutionary Demography Society defines evolutionary demography as an interdisciplinary science at the intersection of demography and evolutionary biology. It focuses on how demographic processes influence evolution, and how evolution shapes the demographic properties of organisms across the tree of life (https://www.evodemos.org/). It includes basic research, but also applications to e.g. conservation biology and population management. It should not be difficult to bring evolutionary demography into the mainstream of evolutionary thinking in the social sciences, given that bridges exist, e.g. the Price equation, which occupies a central position in the work by the evolutionary economist Andersen (2004, Andersen and Holm, 2014) and the evolutionary demographers Coulson and Tuljapurkar (2008, 2010). For a review of how evolutionary demography emerged in demography, see Sear (2015). The perspective on evolutionary demography as a subfield that uses demographic theory and applies it to evolutionary questions in biology (Ellner et al., 2016, p. 255) is different from the perspective adopted in evolutionary 37