Debt Market POLISH NON-GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET: Q3 2011 SUMMARY At the end of Q3 2011, the value of the non-government debt market broke PLN 90 bn, which represents a 42,4% increase during the last 12 months. In comparison to the end of last quarter, it rose by 14,8%. Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Total debt value PLNm 63 295,85 67 278,87 70 482,80 78 499,72 90 109,96 dynamics (annual) 47,1% 40,2% 39,0% 33,5% 42,4% dynamics (quarterly) 7,7% 6,3% 4,8% 11,4% 14,8% Commercial Paper PLNm 14 019,65 14 793,81 14 492,29 15 699,57 22 232,87 dynamics (annual) 15,1% 48,4% 35,8% 38,3% 58,6% dynamics (quarterly) 23,5% 5,5% -2,0% 8,3% 41,6% Corporate bonds (over 365 days) PLNm 16 403,62 17 576,83 18 564,98 19 297,57 20 305,57 dynamics (annual) 19,3% 44,6% 32,9% 30,6% 23,8% dynamics (quarterly) 11,0% 7,2% 5,6% 3,9% 5,2% number of issuers 99 104 116 147 162 Bank debt (over 365 days) PLNm 23 703,20 24 053,46 25 949,60 31 885,07 34 650,15 dynamics (annual) 103,5% 26,8% 36,8% 29,1% 46,2% dynamics (quarterly) -4,1% 1,5% 7,9% 22,9% 8,7% number of issuers 23 27 26 33 34 Municipal bonds (over 365 days) PLNm 9 169,38 10 854,76 11 475,93 11 617,52 12 921,38 dynamics (annual) 68,7% 57,2% 61,9% 45,9% 40,9% dynamics (quarterly) 15,2% 18,4% 5,7% 1,2% 11,2% number of issuers 448 458 458 465 476 Non-government debt market structure by issues placed in Q3 2011 (over 365 days) Corporate bonds 21,62% Bank debt 53,72% Non-government debt market (as of September 30, 2011) Commercial Paper 24,67% Corporate bonds (over 365 days maturity) 22,53% Municipal bonds 24,66% Municipal bonds (over 365 days maturity) 14,34% Bank debt (over 365 days maturity) 38,45% (PLN mln) Statistics of the non-government debt market, September 30, 2010 September 30, 2011 Commercial Paper Corporate bonds Bank debt Municipal bonds 90 000 75 000 60 000 45 000 30 000 15 000 0 2010-09-30 2010-10-31 2010-11-30 2010-12-31 2011-01-31 2011-02-28 2011-03-31 2011-04-30 2011-05-31 2011-06-30 2011-07-31 2011-08-31 2011-09-30 1
Non-government debt market flows in 2011, as of September 30, 2011 Q1 2011 PLN mln Q2 2011 PLN mln Q3 2011 PLN mln Issues Introduced Redempt Introduced Redempt Introduced Redempt corporations 1 552,81 317,23 2 543,30 2 296,34 1 325,09 349,98 banks 2 316,19 349,51 6 457,39 565,81 3 292,39 619,84 municipalities 663,71 56,01 327,40 215,06 1 511,71 256,26 Total 4 532,71 722,75 9 328,09 3 077,21 6 129,19 1 226,08 Bonds placed in Q3 2011 - lead manager's share (over 365 days) Other 9,71% PKO Bank Polski 5,13% BGK 44,93% BRE Bank 8,93% Nordea Bank Polska 9,38% Pekao SA 21,92% 2
Commercial Paper (CP) Market In Q3 2011 the value of Commercial Paper debt market reached PLN 22,2 bn, a growth of 58,6% y/y, and quarterly dynamics of +41,6%. There are 18 lead managers and dealers on the market, with 5 largest: ING Bank Śląski, PKO BP, Pekao SA, Bank Handlowy, BRE Bank, holding a total market share of 89,1%. CPs constituted 24,67% of the total market value. Market share of leading CP organizers by debt value ING Bank Śląski PKO BP Pekao SA Bank Handlowy BRE Bank Other 24,8% 21,9% 23,4% 18,2% 15,0% 15,6% 13,4% 19,8% 12,5% 13,6% 10,9% 10,9% 2011-09-30 2011-06-30 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Corporate Bond Market (with maturities over 365 days) In Q3 2011 the value of the corporate bond market with maturities over 365 days amounted to PLN 20,3 bn. Quarterly dynamics amounted to +23,8%, while quarterly amounted to +5,2%. In Q3 2011 new issues with a total value of PLN 1,32 bn were placed on the market by: Agencja Rozwoju Miasta Siedlce, Calatrava, CASUS FINANSE Sp z o.o., Core Capital sp. z o.o., EFL SA, EGB Investments SA, Electus S.A., ENEA Operator, ENERGA OPERATOR S.A., Energetyka Cieplna Opolszczyzny S.A., Erbud S.A., FOR-NET, GCI, Ghelamco Invest Sp. z o.o., Grupa Inwestycyjna Hossa S.A., Integer.pl SA, KRUK, Magellan SA, Marvipol S.A., Międzynarodowe Targ Łódzkie Sp. z o.o., Mo-BRUK S.A., MPK Łódź Sp. z o.o., Murapol S.A., Navi Group SA, NDI SA, PGF SA, PLG, Port Lotniczny Łódź im. Reymonta, SCO-PAK SA, Szpital Powiatowy we Wrześni, Zakłady Przetwórstwa Mięsnego Henryk Kania SA, Zarząd Morskich Portów Szczecin i Świnoujście S.A., ZKM Gdańsk S.A. Corporate bond issues constituted 21,53% of the total market value. Corporate bonds placed in Q3 2011 - lead managers' share (over 365 days) Nordea Bank Polska 31,28% Pekao SA 24,43% Other 12,41% Copernicus Securities SA 8,72% NOBLE Securities 8,74% BRE Bank 14,42% 3
Bank Debt Market (with maturities over 365 days) In Q3 2011 the value of outstanding bank debt, with maturities over 365 days amounted to PLN 34,65 bn. Yearly dynamics amounted to +46,2% and quarterly to +8,7%. Q3 2011 saw issues of Bank Millennium, BGK for the Road Fund, BRE Bank Hipoteczny, Getin Noble Bank SA, Volkswagen Bank S.A., Getin Noble Bank SA, Volkswagen Bank S.A., Spółdzielczy Bank Rozwoju i Rzemiosła w Wołominie, Bank BPS SA, Gospodarczy Bank Spółdzielczy w Barlinku, Bank Pocztowy S.A. The total value of all these issues amounted to PLN 3,3 bn. Bank non-government debt issues constituted 38,45% of the total market value. Bank debt placed in Q3 2011 - lead managers' share (over 365 days) BGK 84,11% BRE Bank 10,95% Dom Maklerski Banku BPS 3,48% PKO Bank Polski 1,46% 4
Municipal Bonds (with maturities over 365 days) In Q3 2011 the value of the municipal market amounted to PLN 12,9 bn. Yearly dynamics were +40,9%, while quarterly amounted to +11,2%. In Q3 2011 new municipal bonds with total value of PLN 1,5 bn were issued by municipalities: Barlinek, Bełżyce, Białystok miasto, Bielawa, Bliżyn, Boguchwała gmina, Borowie gmina, Braniewo miasto, Brodnica gmina, Brzeg Dolny, Brzesko, Bydgoszcz, Cewice gmina, Chełm miasto, Chęciny gmina, Chmielnik, Chojna gmina, Chorzów, Cieszanów gmina, Cieszków, Czerwionka-Leszczyny, Daleszyce gmina, Dobroszyce, Dopiewo, Drezdenko, Duszniki-Zdrój, Ełk (miasto), Gdańsk miasto, Głuchołazy, Gniezno powiat, Grodzisk Wielkopolski, Jaktorów gmina, Jawor gmina, Jawor powiat, Jelenia Góra miasto, Jędrzejów, Kartuzy powiat, Kielce gmina, Komorniki gmina, Konopiska, Końskie gmina, Koronowo, Koszalin gmina miasto, Kościan, Koścerzyna gmina miejska, Kościerzyna powiat, Kraków miasto, Krotoszyn miasto i gmina, Krzeszyce, Książ Wielki, Książ Wielkopolski, Kunice, Legionowo, Lesznowola, Lębork, Lipowa gmina, Łódzkie województwo, Łódź miasto, Miastko gmina, Milicz powiat, Mogilno gmina, Moryń, Mściwojów gmina, Nidzica, Nowa Ruda miasto, Nowa Wieś Lęborska gmina, Oborniki gmina miejska, Olkusz, Opatów gmina, Opolskie województwo, Orneta gmina, Ostrołęka, Ożarów Mazowiecki gmina, Pakosław gmina, Pełczyce, Pilawa, Pionki miasto, Podgórzyn gmina, Połczyn Zdrój, Prabuty miasto i gmina, Prażmów, Proszowice miasto i gmina, Pruszcz Gdański, Przasnysz, Przelewice, Puławy, Pyrzyce, Ruda Śląska, Rydzyna, Sadlinki gmina, Sandomierz, Sierakowice gmina, Sieraków, Skoczów, Słupsk miasto, Sochaczew powiat, Starachowice, Stare Miasto gmina, Strzelin, Swarzędz gmina, Szczecin gmina miasto, Śrem gmina, Świdnica gmina, Świdnica powiat, Świecie powiat, Świeradów Zdrój gmina, Świętochłowice miasto, Świnoujście, Tczew gmina miejska, Teresin, Trzebiatów, Turek, Turobin, Twardogóra gmina, Ustka miasto, Wałbrzych, Wągrowiec miasto, Węgrów, Widuchowa, Wielkopolskie województwo, Włocławek, Wołów, Wschowa, Zamość, Zator, Zawonia, Zgorzelec gmina miejska, Zielonka, Żyrardów gmina miasto, Żarów gmina, Żary powiat, Żyrardów gmina. Municipal bond issues constituted 14,34% of the total market value. Municipal bonds placed in Q3 2011 - lead managers' share Pekao SA 67,47% PKO Bank Polski 16,12% Nordea Bank Polska 10,60% Other 5,81% International Issues Q3 2011 saw State Treasury 15-year Eurobonds worth JPY 10 bn as well as 4-year Samurai bonds worth JPY 25 bn. 5
Investors August 2011 Banks owned: 89,95% of all municipal issues 76,09% of all mortgage bonds 22,92% of all corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues. 21,34% of all bank issues (short- and long-term) Corporates had in their portfolios: 40,66% of all corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues 3,69% of all issues of bank papers. 1,16% of all municipal issues Foreign investors preferred: corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues (4,83%) municipal bonds (0,91%) bank papers (0,79%). Pension funds invested in: bank bonds (16,84%) mortgage bonds (13,8%) corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues (8,93%) municipal bonds (3,02%) Investment funds had: 27,25% of all issues of bank papers 17,44% of all corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues 10,12% of mortgage bonds 4,26% of municipal bonds Insurance companies held: bank papers (8,43%) corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues (3%) municipal bonds (0,51%) Investors: non-government debt instruments in banks and customers portfolios, as of August 31, 2011 (based on data from 21 banks) Bank debt instruments Other debt instruments (PLNm) Total Up to 365 days Over 365 days Mortgage Bonds Municipal bonds Total Up to 365 days Over 365 days Total Banks 1 888,90 1 429,10 459,80 165,44 7 659,42 8 516,15 3 671,56 4 844,59 18 229,91 Insurance companies 745,79 219,70 526,09 0,00 43,57 1 112,77 42,25 1 070,52 1 902,13 Pension funds 1 490,30 560,00 930,30 30,00 257,08 3 318,99 0,00 3 318,99 5 096,37 Investment funds 2 411,80 1 176,40 1 235,40 22,00 362,56 6 480,65 318,61 6 162,04 9 277,01 Corporates 326,50 252,80 73,70 0,00 99,14 15 107,41 12 527,09 2 580,32 15 533,05 Foreign entities 70,24 0,00 70,24 0,00 77,85 1 792,83 501,50 1 291,33 1 940,91 Other financial institutions 396,30 371,80 24,50 0,00 13,01 509,14 31,10 478,04 918,45 Other entities 1 522,20 21,26 1 500,94 0,00 2,92 313,01 214,00 99,01 1 838,13 Total 8 852,02 4 031,06 4 820,97 217,44 8 515,56 37 150,94 17 306,10 19 844,84 54 735,96 Source: The National Bank of Poland Investors in non-government debt (long- and short-term), as of August 31, 2011 Corporates 28,38% Investment funds 16,95% Foreign entities 3,55% Pension funds 9,31% Other financial institutions 1,68% Insurance companies 3,48% Source: National Bank of Poland, based on data from 21 banks Banks 33,31% Other entities 3,36% 6
Foreign currency Long-term Local currency Short-term Foreign currency International ratings Local currency Corporates Aquanet BBB- A (pol) ENEA S.A. BBB BBB A (pol) 7 Viability Rating Individual Support Support rating floor National ratings Long-term Koleje Mazowieckie - KM BBB- BBB A+ (pol) ORBIS BBB+(pol) PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna BBB+ BBB+ PKN Orlen BB+ BB+ B B Polskie Koleje Państwowe BBB BBB+ A+ (pol) Tauron Polska Energia BBB BBB Telekomunikacja Polska BBB+ F2 Zakład Komunikacji Miejskiej w Gdańsku BBB- A (pol) Zakład Wodociągów i Kanalizacji - Sochaczew BB+ (pol) Financial Institutions Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego A- F2 1 Bank Handlowy w Warszawie A F1 bbb+ 1 Bank Millennium BBB- F3 bbb- C/D 3 BB A- (pol) Bank Ochrony Środowiska BBB F3 bb D 2 BBB Bank Pekao A- F2 a- B/C 1 Bank Zachodni WBK A+ F1 Bbb C 1 BRE Bank A F1 bbb- C/D 1 Short-term BRE Leasing A F1 1 Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy S.A. A+ F1 1 AAA (pol) F1+ (pol) Getin Noble Bank BB B bb D 3 BB BBB (pol) ING Bank Śląski A F1 bbb+ C 1 Kredyt Bank A- F2 bb+ C/D 1 Pekao Bank Hipoteczny SA A- F2 1 AA (pol) F1+ (pol) PKO BP 2 Municipalities Białystok BBB- BBB- A (pol) Bielsko-Biała BBB+ BBB+ AA- (pol) Bydgoszcz BBB BBB A (pol) Częstochowa BBB BBB Gdańsk BBB+ BBB+ Gliwice BBB BBB A (pol) Jarocin BBB + (pol) Katowice A- A- Kielce BBB- BBB- A-(pol) Koszalin BBB-(pol) Łódź BBB+ BBB+ AA- (pol) Myślenice BBB (pol) Olsztyn BB+ BB+ BBB + (pol) Opole BBB (pol) Ostrów Wielkopolski A-(pol) Płock BBB+ BBB+ AA-(pol) Rybnik A (pol) Szczecin BBB+ BBB+ F2 Toruń BBB BBB A (pol) Warszawa AAA (pol) Wrocław BBB+ BBB+ A+ (pol) Zabrze BBB- BBB- A- (pol) Zielona Góra BBB- BBB- A- (pol) Regions Województwo dolnośląskie A- A- AA (pol) Województwo łódzkie A- A- AA- (pol)
Województwo małopolskie A- A- AA (pol) Województwo mazowieckie BBB+ A- AA (pol) Województwo wielkopolskie A- A F2 AA+(pol) Covered Bonds Pekao Bank Hipoteczny SA Long-term rating A Revenue bonds Long-term rating National Long-term rating Miejskie Przedsiębiorstwo Komunikacyjne Łódź BBB- Miejskie Wodociągi i Kanalizacja w Bydgoszczy BBB- Zakład Komunikacji Miejskiej w Gdańsku BBB A+ (pol) Insurance Companies Insurer Financial Strength National Insurer Financial Strength Towarzystwo Ubezpieczeń na Życie EUROPA SA BB BBB (pol) Towarzystwo Ubezpieczeń EUROPA SA BB BBB (pol) Country Long Term Issuer Default Rating Short Term Issuer Default Rating Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating Country Ceiling Polska A- F2 A AA- Bułgaria BBB- F3 BBB BBB+ Chorwacja BBB- F3 BBB BBB+ Czechy A+ F1 AA- AA+ Estonia A+ F1 A+ AAA Litwa BBB F3 BBB+ A Łotwa BBB- F3 BBB BBB+ Macedonia BB+ B BB+ BBB- Serbia BB- B BB- BB- Słowacja A+ F1 A+ AAA Słowenia AA- F1+ AA- AAA Węgry BBB- F3 BBB A- Outlook POSITIVE NEGATIVE EVOLVING STABLE Watch POSITIVE NEGATIVE EVOLVING Selected press releases and rating actions Q3 2011: 2011-09-22 Fitch Rates Bank Handlowy 'A'; Rating Watch Negative 2011-09-16 Fitch Affirms City of Katowice at 'A-'; Outlook Stable 2011-09-16 Fitch Assigns PKP Senior Unsecured Foreign Currency 'BBB' Rtg; Planned Notes Assigned 'BBB (exp)' 2011-09-09 Fitch Affirms City of Bielsko-Biala at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable 2011-08-31 Fitch Affirms Poland's PKN at 'BB+', Outlook Stable 2011-08-30 Fitch Rates ZKM Gdansk's PLN7.78m Revenue Bond 'BBB'/'A+(pol)' 8
2011-08-26 Fitch Affirms Poland's Tauron at 'BBB' on GZE Acquisition 2011-08-12 Fitch Affirms Poland's PGE at 'BBB+', Outlook Stable 2011-08-12 Fitch Rates Poland's City Of Olsztyn 'BB+'/'BBB+(pol)'; Outlook Stable 2011-08-10 Fitch Maintains Bank Handlowy's Support Rating on Rating Watch Negative 2011-08-04 Fitch Downgrades 8 European Utilities' Senior Unsecured Ratings on Criteria Tightening;Affirms IDRs 2011-08-04 Fitch Affirms Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank Polski's Support Rating at '2' 2011-08-04 Fitch Rates ZKM Gdansk's PLN42.67m Revenue Bond 'BBB'/'A+(pol)' 2011-08-04 Fitch Affirms Poland's Europejski Fundusz Leasingowy 'A+'; Outlook Stable 2011-07-29 Fitch Downgrades City of Bialystok to BBB- ; Outlook Stable 2011-07-29 Fitch Revises Polish City of Opole's Outlook to Positive; Affirms BBB(pol) 2011-07-25 Fitch Affirms MPK s Revenue Bond at BBB- ; Off RWN 2011-07-25 Polish Non-Government Debt Market: Q2 2011 Summary 2011-07-22 Fitch Affirms City of Szczecin at BBB+ ; Outlook Stable 2011-07-20 Fitch Launches Viability Ratings for Global Financial Institutions 2011-07-19 Fitch Affirms Telekomunikacja Polska at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable 2011-07-15 Fitch Assigns Polskie Koleje Panstwowe 'BBB'; Outlook Stable 2011-07-14 Fitch Places Kredyt Bank on Rating Watch Evolving 2011-07-07 Fitch Affirms Polish City of Wroclaw at 'BBB+'/'A+(pol)'; Outlook Stable 2011-07-07 Fitch Revises Polish City of Rybnik's Outlook to Positive; Affirms' A(pol)' 2011-07-06 Fitch Affirms Municipality of Ostrow Wielkopolski at 'A-(pol)'; Outlook Stable 2011-07-01 Fitch Affirms Poland's Tauron at 'BBB'; Stable Outlook This document has been prepared by employees of Fitch Polska S.A.; address: Królewska Str, No 16, 00-103 Warsaw, Poland. phone: (+48 22) 338-62-80; fax: (+48 22) 338-62-90; e-mail: rating@fitchpolska.com.pl. http://www.fitchpolska.com.pl Fitch Polska S.A. has used due care in the preparation of this document. Our information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Fitch Polska S.A. shall owe no liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or damage caused by or resulting from any error in such information. None of the information in this document may be copied or otherwise reproduced, stored or disseminated in whole or in part in any form or by any means whatsoever by any person without Fitch Polska S.A. prior written consent. Our reports and ratings constitute opinions, not recommendations to buy or to sell. 9