WP 5 Regional energy strategy & action plan

Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts WP 5 Regional energy strategy & action plan Task: 5.4.2 2014, PP14 This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF The sole responsibility for the content of this [webpage, publication etc.] lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Spis treści 1. Description of the concept region... 4 1.1 Geographical situation... 4 1.2 Demographic Situation... 5 1.2.1 Society... 5 1.2.2 Development and economic structure... 7 1.3 Overview of the region... 10 1.4 Legal framework and prognosis... 11 1.4.1 Grant Program for private sectors... 18 1.4.2 Grant Program for municipalities... 19 1.4.3 Grant Program for businesses... 20 1.4.4 Tariffs... 24 2. The SWOT analysis of the region... 26 3. The regional energy balance... 28 3.1 Demand energy in the region... 29 3.1.1 Electricity generation... 31 3.1.2 Heat production... 34 3.1.3 Production of liquid fuels... 35 3.2 Energy potential in the region... 36 3.2.1 Fossil energy sources... 38 3.2.2 Renewable energy sources... 40 3.3 Comparison of available resources and the current demand for energy in the region... 44 3.3.1 The coverage ratio regional production... 44 3.3.2 The coverage ratio - including potential free resources... 45 4. Possible scenarios for the concept of regions... 46 4.1 Scenario without measures - trend scenario... 46 4.2 Scenario based on energy efficiency... 47 4.3 Scenarios based on the activation measures with or without the energy savings... 48 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 2

5.1 The main scenario for the region... 51 5.1.1 New installations of renewable energy sources in Mazovia.... 52 5.1.2 Increasing the efficiency of heat production using gas cogeneration.... 53 5.1.3 Increasing the efficiency of electricity use in the manufacture of the system, households and communities.... 53 5.1.4 Intensifying the use of solar energy in hot water... 54 5.1.5 The development of photovoltaic energy.... 54 5.1.6 The reactivation and modernization of small-scale hydropower... 55 5.1.7 Substitution of fossil fuels with biomass and biogas... 55 5.1.8 Increased efficiency in the use of transport fuels... 56 5.1.9 Activation of regional resources for more efficient energy production... 56 5.2 Measures to achieve the main scenario.... 57 5.2 Środki do osiągnięcia głównego scenariusza... 58 - gminy wzorcowe... 62 6. Sources... 63 7. Spis tabel... 65 8. Spis ilustracji... 66 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 3

1. Description of the concept region 1.1 Geographical situation Graphic 1: Map of Mazovia by regions Source: Statistical Office in Warsaw, Selected data on subregions of Mazovia. II quarter 2014 Masovia Voivodeship is located in East-Central Poland. It is bordered by the Kuyavian- Pomeranian Voivodeship from the Northwest to the Southeast, Lodz, Lublin, from the South West, from the North-East, Podlaskie, Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship to the South and from the North, Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. Geographical region is low-lying, and its boundaries are including 1668 km. Mazovia is the largest Polish Voivodeship both in terms of area, as well as residence. It is 11.4% of the territory of the country and its 13.8% of the population 1. NUTS codes (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics): 1 Statistical Office in Warsaw, Portrait of Mazowieckie voivodship 2010-2012. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 4

PL12 Mazowieckie (Mazovia) Regions subordinated: o PL121 Ciechanowsko-płocki o PL122 Ostrołęcko-siedlecki o PL127 Miasto Warszawa o PL128 Radomski o PL129 Warszawski-wschodni o PL12A Warszawski-zachodni 1.2 Demographic Situation 1.2.1 Society The population of Mazovia (in thousands) Ogółem; 2002; 5.062 Miasto; 2002; 3.262 Wieś; 2002; 1.800 Ogółem; 2011; 5.236 Miasto; 2011; 3.357 Wieś; 2011; 1.879 Ogółem Total Miasto City Wieś Village Graphic 2: The population of Mazovia Source: Statistical Office in Warsaw, National Census of Population and Housing 2011. Households and families in the Mazowieckie voivodship. Demographic characteristics. Between population census in 2002 and 2011 Mazovia population increased by 3.4%. By comparison, the population throughout the Polish grew in that time only by 0.7%. The reason is economic migration; population growth in the region of Mazovia is lower than the substitutability of generations (2,1%) and is 0.5% (Statistical Office, as day 31.12.2012). As you Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 5

can see in the map below, migration is carried out for the benefit of the area of Warsaw and disadvantagefor the other regions of Mazovia. in brackets are the number of poviats Graphic 1. The balance of internal and international migration for permanent residence per 1000 population in 2013. The Statistical Office in Warsaw, Status and natural movement of the population in the Mazovia voivodship in 2013. Additional valuable information may be demographic forecasts developed by the Mazovia Regional Research Center. It shows the following graph: Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 6

Ludność województwa mazowieckiego (w tys.); 2015; 5354 Demographic forecast Ludność województwa mazowieckiego (w tys.); 2020; 5430 Ludność województwa mazowieckiego (w tys.); 2025; 5471 Ludność Ludność województwa województwa mazowieckiego mazowieckiego (w (w tys.); tys.); 2030; 2035; 5480 5470 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mazovia voivodship population (in thousands) Graphic 2. Demographic forecast Source: Mazovia Centre for Regional Studies, Demographic forecast for Mazovia to2035 1.2.2 Development and economic structure 2 Mazowsze is among the provinces largest share of GDP almost 22.4% (the value for 2012). For comparison, the second in this respect, the Silesian produces 13% of GDP. However, this does not mean that is the region of Mazovia generally most developed. It is a good result is achieved mainly thanks to the presence of capital, which produces more than 61% of the GDP of the voivodship, and that about 13% of the GDP of the whole country. Delamination between Warsaw and other subregions of Mazovia is clearly shown in the map below: 2 All the data in this section are from: Statistical Office in Warsaw, Portrait of Mazovia voivodship 2010-2012 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 7

Graphic 3. Map of GDP per capita in Mazovia region in 2011 Source: Statistical Office in Warsaw, Portrait of Mazovia voivodship 2010-2012 Economic activity rate in the Mazovia region is 59.8%. It was calculated as the share of economically active population aged 15 years and more. The employment rate is 55.1% while (excluding economically active, but currently unemployed). This is the best result in the country. The average for the whole Polish is up 56% and 50.4%. Mazowsze Voivodeship was in 2010 with the lowest unemployment (7.3 percent). In 2012 fell to the second place (with a value of 7.9 percent). The rise in unemployment in the country at that time was 8 points. percent. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 8

Professional activity Datenreihen1 ; Bierni zawodowo; 1.757.000; 0 Datenreihen1 ; Bezrobotni; 213.000; 0 Pracujący Bezrobotni employed Bierni Datenreihen1 unemployed zawodowo ; Pracujący; professional 2.450.000; 1 inactive Graphic 4. Professional activity in the region of Mazovia. Source: Statistical Office in Warsaw, Statistical Yearbook of voivodships 2013. It is worth noting that among the unemployed up to 32.8% are long-term unemployed, or they don t work for more than a year. Employment by sector Datenreihen1; Rolnictwo; 0,109840751; 10,98% Datenreihen1; Rolnictwo Przemysł; 0,222948142; Przemysł agriculture 22,29% Usługi industry Datenreihen1; Usługi; 0,667211107; 66,72% services Graphic 5. Employment in Mazovia by economic sectors. Source: Statistical Office in Warsaw, Statistical Yearbook of voivodships 2013. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 9

1.3 Overview of the region Number of inhabitants 5293200 Density of population 149 persons/km Number of households 1943200 The Surface Of The Agricultural area Forest area Wasteland 3555847 ha 2418934 ha 817869 ha 34920 ha The Nominal GDP GDP per capita 341720 million PLN 64790 PLN Table 1. Overview of the region Source: Statistical Office in Warsaw, Statistical Yearbook of voivodships 2013 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 10

1.4 Legal framework and prognosis Required documents 3 1. Application for amendment of a local development plan (MPZP), if it does not provide for the construction of wind farms/solar/biogas plants; or, if there is no MPZP for the site, you will need to submit an application for the establishment of conditions for building (containing the location of the construction, the essence of the construction work, the necessary infrastructure connections). Note: to change the MPZP can take up to several years (Office: municipal office or dictrict office) 2. Building permit (ditto) 3. Construction project (ditto) 4. If the windmills will be higher than 50 m, it is necessary for the application to the competent authority of the investment supervision of military aviation (reporting of air barriers). 5. If the windmills will be higher than 100 m, it is necessary for the application to the President of the Office of Civil Aviation (reporting of air barriers). 6. Noise emission permit. (District Office) 7. Permission to the emission of gases or particulates into the atmosphere (ditto). Biogas plants shall be exempted from the licence, if their nominal thermal power does not exceed 15 MW. Even in this case, however, should be reported to the District Office. 8. The concession for the production of electricity in renewable energy sources (can receive only by the company, not the person). RES below 5 MW are exempt from licence fees. Energy Office. Detailed information on the submission of applications for the granting of concessions can be found directly on the side of the URE: link. Concessions may include marketing, warehousing, distribution, transmission and generation of electricity, liquid fuels, gas and heat. 3 Źródła: Polskie Towarzystwo Fotowoltaiki, Projektowanie i instalowanie systemów PV w Polsce; Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Przewodnik dla inwestorów zainteresowanych budową biogazowni; Polskie Stowarzyszenie Energii Wiatrowej, Energetyka wiatrowa w Polsce 2010. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 11

9. Note: the concession is issued only after completion of the construction of the system. Before you can receive the promise of the concessions. 10. Authorisation to engage in activity in the recovery or disposal of waste (in the case of biogas plants). Each type of waste requires a permit; This also applies to those that seem quite harmless (e.g. silage). Request for permission must include, inter alia, technical description of the method of recovery and the place and manner of storage of waste. 11. Numerous other documents and authorizations for the construction of a biogas plant i.a. the decision approving the project or geological documentation, hydrogeological and geological-engineering, water-license permission; arrangements for hygiene and sanitary requirements and epidemiological protection; approval to connect the facility to district heating, gas or plumbing; edition technical specifications connecting arrangements and design solutions; the decision authorising the explaitation of technical equipment, submitting a program to prevent major industrial accidents to the National Fire Brigade. In most cases, the size of the investment does not affect the number of necessary documents. The result is that small investors may be repelled by the size of the necessary bureaucracy. See also: information package URE for entrepreneurs wishing to invest in RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES: http://www.ure.gov.pl/download/1/7033/ozepakiet04-2014.pdf Guarantee of origin [4] Guarantee of origin constitutes a credential for the end user that a particular amount of energy injected to the network distribution or transmission network comes from RES. Important: not guarantee property rights! A guarantee of origin is issued in electronic form and placed on the register, which is deleted after the expiration of 12 months from the date of creation. The amount of energy which the guarantee is determined with a precision of up to 1MW. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 12

The certificate of origin "The certificate of origin shall be evidence of the manufacture of a certain, specified in the certificate, the amount of electricity in the licensed renewable or cogeneration source. The certificate of origin shall be issued by the President of the URE at the request of the manufacturer of electricity in cogeneration or RES before obtaining prior confirmation by the Distribution or the Transmission System Operator in whose area is the data source, the actual supply of this energy to the electricity system " [5]. To receive the certificate of origin is required to have URE concessions. What is the difference between a certificate of origin from the guarantees of origin? First of all, the fact that certificates of origin are property rights, and the warranty is not. Kinds of certificates issued by URE: The Name Source of energy Green RES Red high-efficiency cogeneration Yellow (formerly blue) Small gas-fired cogeneration sources or electricity power less than 1MW Violet Biogas or gas from mines demethanisation Table 2. Certificates issued by URE. The certificate of origin is converted to green certificates, or transferable property rights. The amount of energy in the certificate shall be converted into certificates-one certificate represents 1 kwh of energy ("denomination" certificate). Certificates trading takes place on Goods Power Exchange (http://www.tge.pl/pl). It is worth to add, due to the stock trading green certificates are susceptible to strong price fluctuations caused for Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 13

example political or legal decisions. Current prices of green certificates are available, inter alia, on the side of the TGE. Power companies engaged in the manufacture or sale of electricity are required to (imposed by the Act on energy law of 1997) acquisition and presentation of a certain number of green certificates to the remission, or to pay a fee of 240 PLN for each 1 MWh of difference. White certificates White certificates, in contrast to the green and others, does not apply to origin of energy, but energy efficiency. Energy efficiency Act of 2011 imposes the obligation to raise and provide for remission of a number of energy efficiency certificates or replacement fee. White certificates can be obtained for the planned operation of the productivity-annual energy savings should be 10 or more tons of oil equivalent (toe). Like green, white certificates mean property rights, and are traded on TGE. For more information: http://www.bialecertyfikaty.com.pl/ and www.mg.gov.pl/files/upload/10722/podrecznik-biale_certyfikaty_ostateczny.pdf Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 14

KSUB-planned project of Energy Regulation Office Illustration 8. Diagram of the National System of biomass. Source: website of the Office of Energy Regulation (http://www.ure.gov.pl/pl/rynki-energii/energia-elektryczna/odnawialne-zrodlaener/ksub ) The purpose of the National Authentication Biomass System is to provide guarantee of quality and origin of biomass and elimination of the biomass market failure reported by manufacturers and consumers. KSUB has not been so far introduced works in progress. Membership will be voluntary. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 15

Relevant laws and regulations governing the energy market: Document name: Act of 15 April 2011 for energy efficiency The Act of 10 April 1997 on energy law The Ordinance of the Minister of Economy of 18 August 2011 (OJ l no 189, poz. 1126) The Ordinance of the Minister of the economy of 10 August 2012 (OJ No 2012 0 item 962) The Ordinance of the Minister of Economy of 4 September 2012 (OJ No 2012 0 item 1039) The Ordinance of the Minister of Economy of 17 December 2010 (OJ 2010 no 249 poz. 1668) Content: "The law specifies: 1) the national objective of cost-effective energy management; 2) the task of the public sector in terms of the energy efficiency; 3) rules for obtaining and redeeming a certificate of energy efficiency; 4) the principle of drawing up energy efficiency audit ". "The law sets out the principles for shaping national energy policy, the terms and conditions for supply and use of fuel and energy, including heat, and the activities of energy companies, as well as specifies the authorities competent in matters of fuel economy and energy". "Regulation lays down the detailed rules for: 1) development of feed-in tariffs for electricity 2) pricing and rates of fees 3) settlements with customers and between energy companies. " "Regulation (...)on the detailed scope and how to draw up an energy efficiency audit, an audit card design of energy efficiency and methods of calculating the energy savings " "The regulation lays down: 1) size and how to calculate primary energy corresponding to the energy efficiency certificate values 2) How to take into account in the calculation of the price of electricity, heat or natural gas fixed tariffs in energy companies 3) the unit replacement fee amount, 4) efficiency coefficients processes of primary energy in final energy " "Regulation (...) on the quality requirements for biocomponents, quality testing methods for biocomponents and how to download the samples for biocomponents " Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 16

The Ordinance of the Minister of Economy of 19 March 2010 (OJ 2010 No. 61 item. 379) The Ordinance of the Minister of Economy of 4 April 2014 (OJ 2014 poz. 487) Notice of the Minister of Economy of 21 December 2012 (OJ of 2013. item 15) The Ordinance of the Minister of Economy of 11 August 2000 (Journal of laws No. 75, item. 866) "Regulation (...) on the mode of issuing certificates of quality of biocomponents by accredited certification bodies " "Regulation (...) on the calculation of the final gross energy consumption from renewable energy sources and the method of calculating the amount of electricity and heat from such sources " ( ) announces a detailed list of activities to improve energy efficiency, included in the annex to the notice ". "Regulation lays down detailed rules for the carrying out by the power companies, involved in the transmission and distribution of gaseous fuels, electricity or heat, control systems for measurement, keeping the contracts and the accuracy of the accounts, as well as designs of protocols controls and authorizations to carry out the control and legitimacy of the pattern." Table 3. Relevant laws and regulations governing the energy market See also: 1) http://www.ure.gov.pl/pl/prawo/akty-prawne 2) http://www.cire.pl/lista,6,0,prawo.html 3) http://www.ieo.pl/pl/ustawa-oze.html Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 17

1.4.1 Grant Program for private sectors Program Destiny The recommended value of the project The maximum amount of support Comment The Program priority NFOŚiGW improving energy efficiency To subsidize loans for the construction of energy-efficient single-family or multi-family homes. Not specified Depending on the indicator obtained annual energy demand for consumer unit heating and ventilation The grant for partial repayment of bank loans made through the intermediary of a bank on the basis of the cooperation agreement concluded with NFOŚiGW. The Program priority Support NFOŚiGW distributed, renewable energy Payments for partial repayment of principal bank loans for the purchase and installation of solar collectors for individuals and housing communities Not specified Up to 45% of the capital bank loan used to finance the eligible costs of the project The grant for partial repayment of bank loans made through the intermediary of a bank on the basis of the cooperation agreement concluded with NFOŚiGW. The Program priority NFOŚiGW Prosumer Purchase and installation of small installations or microinstallations renewable energy sources for the production of electricity or heat and electricity for individuals and communities or housing. Not specified Up to 100% of eligible costs of installations in the project Loan or grant Table 4. Grant Program for private sectors Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 18

1.4.2 Grant Program for municipalities Program Destiny The recommended value of the project The maximum amount of support Comment Infrastructure and the environment Programme. Action 9.6 Networks facilitating reception of energy from renewable sources Construction and modernization of the network, comprehensive projects At least 20 million PLN The grant up to 85% of the eligible costs. Infrastructure and the environment Programme. Action 9.4 Production of energy from renewable sources The construction of wind farms, hydropower (up to MW), power plant for biomass or biogas, geothermal power plants; solar panel installation Min. 10 million PLN (for the power plant for biomass or biogas), min. 20 million PLN (for the other) 40 million Regional Programme for Mazovia Region. Action 4.3 air protection, power engineering Construction, extension and modernisation of the infrastructure for the production and transmission of energy coming from renewable sources; construction, extension and modernisation of district heating systems for energy efficient through the use of energy-efficient technologies and solutions. Min. 3 million PLN (or lack of the minimum value, if a municipality may not use the support) 85 percent, or at the level of the competent public aid scheme (if present). Minimum contribution: 3 per cent for local government units and their organizational units, when there is no public aid; 40% for the other. Programme for Central Europe. Area of intervention (P) 3.3 Encourage the use of renewable energy sources and increase Preparation of investments in energy-efficient solutions in large settlements housing, integrated concepts and action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy 1-5 million euros (other amounts only in justified cases) Up to 85% of the eligible costs of the project (the refund of expenses). A Minimum of three financial partners in the project. You need to use the results of the projects: Interreg IIIB, Interreg IIIC, Urbact, Espon and the Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 19

energy efficiency efficiency. framework research programmes. Programme For The Baltic Sea Region. Action 4.2 Strategic support integrated development of BSR and the socio-economic and territorial cohesion Preparation and implementation of joint strategies in the field of energy conservation and cleaner production Not specified The grant up to 85% of the eligible costs of the project Only not-for-profit projects Programme For The Baltic Sea Region. Operation 4.1 Strengthening development of metropolitan regions, cities and urban areas Creating an urban-rural partnerships resolve common problems of these areas, such as energy conservation, energy efficiency, including renewable, such as solar, hydro and wind power. Not specified The grant up to 85% of the eligible costs of the project. Only not-for-profit projects Table 5. Grant Program for municipalities 1.4.3 Grant Program for businesses Program Destiny The recommended value of the project The maximum amount of support Comment Infrastructure and the environment Programme. Action 9.6 Networks facilitating reception of energy from renewable sources Construction and modernization of the network, comprehensive projects At least 20 million PLN The grant up to 85% of the eligible costs. Infrastructure and the environment Programme. Action 9.5 Production of biofuels from renewable sources Construction of the plant or installation for the production of biogas or biocomponents At least 20 million PLN 30 million PLN Fuel produced may not be pure vegetable oil, bio-ethanol or a mixture containing oil. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 20

Infrastructure and the environment Programme. Action 9.4 Production of energy from renewable sources The construction of wind farms, hydropower (up to MW), power plant for biomass or biogas, geothermal power plants; solar panel installation Min. 10 million PLN (for the power plant for biomass or biogas), min. 20 million PLN (for the other) 40 million PLN Infrastructure and the environment Programme. Action 10.3 The development of industry for renewable energy sources Construction of an establishment producing equipment for the production of electricity from wind, water in small water power plants up to 10 MW, biogas and biomass; equipment for the production of biocomponents and organic fuels; equipment to produce heat using biomass and geothermal energy and solar At least 20 million PLN 30 million PLN There is the possibility of receiving an advance payment. Regional Programme for Mazovia Region. Action 4.3 air protection, power engineering Construction, extension and modernisation of the infrastructure for the production and transmission of energy coming from renewable sources; construction, extension and modernisation of district heating systems for energy efficient through the use of energy-efficient technologies and solutions. Min. 3 million 85 percent, or at the level of the competent public aid scheme (if present). Minimum contribution: 40 percent. Regional Programme for Mazovia Region. Action 1.8 support for enterprises in the implementation of best available techniques (BAT) Technology changes aimed at eliminating harmful impacts and nuisances through the prevention and reduction of emissions into the environment. Not specified Not specified Minimum contribution: Only 40% of small and medium-sized enterprises. Support cannot be granted to adjust companies to the standards for which a transitional period is over. Programme for Central Europe. Area of intervention (P) 3.3 Preparation of investments in energy-efficient solutions in large settlements housing, integrated 1-5 million euros (other amounts only in justified Up to 85% of the eligible costs of the project (the A Minimum of three financial partners in the project. You need Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 21

Encourage the use of renewable energy sources and increase energy efficiency concepts and action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy efficiency. cases) refund of expenses). to use the results of the projects: Interreg IIIB, Interreg IIIC, Urbact, Espon and the framework research programmes. The Program priority NFOŚiGW "Stork" The construction, expansion or reconstruction of RES installations Not specified From 30 to 75% depending on the type of renewable energy (from 2 to 40 mln PLN) You can only use one program at the same time NFOŚiGW priority Priority programme NFOŚiGW Supporting entrepreneurs in the field of low-carbon and resource-efficient economy Energy audits and energy technological processes, buildings and industrial networks, sources of heat, electricity and cooling, internal heating network and buildings Not specified Up to 70% of the eligible costs of the project You can only use one program at the same time NFOŚiGW priority The Ecological Concept Generator Projects involving tasks aimed at the development and implementation of innovative technology in the following areas: energy efficiency and energy storage, protection and rationalization of harvesting energy from clean sources, innovative method for obtaining fuels, energy and materials from the waste and recycling of waste. Not specified Up to 10 million PLN for the research and development phase, up to 20 million PLN for the implementation phase Table 6. Grant Program for businesses For additional information on sources of funding: 1. http://www.nfosigw.gov.pl/srodki-krajowe/programy/ -The National Fund for environmental protection and water management 2. http://www.pois.gov.pl/ -Portal Of European Funds. Infrastructure and Environment Program 3. http://www.poig.gov.pl -Portal Of European Funds. Innovative Economy Program Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 22

4. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/thefunds/regional/index_pl.cfm -The European Regional Development Fund 5. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/intelligent/about/funding-areas/index_en.htm -Funds Intelligent Energy Europe Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 23

1.4.4 Tariffs In contrast to countries such as Germany or the United States, Poland has not implemented the so-called "feed in tariffs". This means that regardless of how the rate of energy generation per kwh is the same, and as long as there is no relief for producers of energy from renewable sources. Government bill on RES submitted in 2011 under the leadership of the Ministry of Economy Waldemar Pawlak provided their implementation. Examples of the guaranteed tariffs were attached to the bill later, this is presented in the following table. NOTE: The following rates are not valid currently. Type of installation Installed power (kw) Air fare (PLN/kWh) Agricultural biogas plant Up to 40 0,70 Over 40 to 200 0,65 Biogas plant using biogas from landfills Biogas plant using biogas from wastewater treatment plant Up to 200 0,55 Up to 200 0,45 Installation of wind energy Up to 10 0.95 Above 10 up to 100 0,65 A roof of a photovoltaic installation Ground installation of photovoltaic Up to 10 1.30 Above 10 up to 100 1.15 Above 10 up to 100 1.10 Water power station Up to 75 0,70 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 24

Table 7. Example of the guaranteed tariff annexed to the draft law on renewable energy sources of 04.10.2012 r. (Version 2.0.1). It was planned the above rates apply for the installation of the cast to use in 2013 and have to apply up to the end of the year 2027. However, in the present draft law under consideration (after changes in 2013 by Janusz Piechociński) it is canceled of the feed-in tariffs at all. Discussions are ongoing whether to introduce them back. Association of Employers Forum on renewable energy " [6] strongly advocates that. According to the new project, support for mikroinstalations is vested only in the stage of investment, for example in the form of the "Prosumer" programme. Therefore energy prices does not depend on how it is acquiring, but only on the decision of the supplier. On the Polish market is running more than a dozen suppliers of electricity-price lists can be found on their websites. It's hard to determine whether a tariffs will be introduced in the end or not, and whether it will be similar to those proposed in 2012. The fate of the law on RES are questionable. Poland is required to adopt this law by European Parliament and Council directive 2009/28/EC of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. According to its records, the law should now be passed to the 5 December 2010-the fact that it did not happen, was the cause of bringing the administrative process before the European Court of Justice. The judgment so far did not fall. Public presentation on RES Act in Parliament were held on the 15 th of September 2014. Polish Coordinating Council of Renewable Energy Sources [7], Institute of Renewable Energy [8] and the Polish Association of Wind Energy [9] declared critical of the current draft. On the way to the adoption of the bill is also disagreement in Parliament; political parties of PiS and Twój Ruch are opposed to the bill. PiS contends its opposition to protection of carbon energy and related places of employment, and TR is concerned about benefits of the present draft law on RES for prosumer [10]. In addition, its opposition to the current draft of the Act are reported by the representatives of energy companies and opponents of the construction of wind farms. More detailed report of the presentation can be found here: http://www.pigeo.org.pl/?menu=aktualnosci&id=94. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 25

2. The SWOT analysis of the region Table 8. Developed, inter alia, on the basis of a report from Mazovia development strategy up to 2030. Innovative Mazovia, ed. Warsaw 2013. Strengths expanded research and development institutions the scientific potential of Warsaw, Radom, Płock providing the basis for the development of high-tech industry agro-food industry developed (source of biomass) conditions conducive to the use of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, wind power, biomass and biogas the greatest economic potential and population among the provinces; business leader position in Poland the presence of skilled workers Weaknesses there is no act on RES and its uncertain future the lack of a structured system of partnership and cooperation between the regional government and the environment and science sphere low exploitation of the results of research for innovative manufacturing enterprises obsolete technologies of production, transmission and distribution of electricity and high emissivity energy sources the low level of separate collection and recovery of waste incineration and landfilling of biodegradable waste weak development of transmission lines in the Northern and Eastern parts of the region the need to modernize outdated (35-40 years) local transmission network in rural areas Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 26

Opportunities to exploit the potential of Mazovia in the field of renewable energy reducing air pollution and surface water reducing emissions through the development of clean technology reducing energy consumption, including through the development of energy-efficient technologies, especially in industry and construction improving energy security in the region through the construction of new links the use of currently undeveloped biodegradable waste creation of new places of employment thanks to the development of RES a reduction in expenditure of Mazovia to import power from outside the acquisition of partners and resources to develop RES in the region Threats the law on RES may be passed without the guaranteed feed-in tariffs, which will reduce the profitability of RES the rising costs of using environment instability and the complexity of the regulatory system, in particular the tax provisions slow development of clean energy sources due to the lack of a coherent energy policy and climate changeincentives the cost of adapting the electricity system to the requirements of the climate package unsatisfactory status of the electricity transmission system hindrance to economic development in the areas of electricity deficit Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 27

3. The regional energy balance The data used in the regional energy balance are based on the work of "An analysis of the energy sector Mazovia in terms of demand for electricity, heat and liquid fuels and gas in individual sectors of the economy", m. Wielomska, the National Energy Agency s. a. (final report of the research "Evaluation of the demand side of the energy sector in the region of Mazovia" under WP3) and "Consumption of fuels and energy carriers in 2011." GUS, Warsaw 2012. In the absence of official data potential savings have been estimated on the basis of an extension of the trend in the years 2005-2010 included in the notice of the Minister of Economy of 2.07.13 on a report that contains, in particular, information on the implementation of the national objective for cost-effective management of energy and the national energy efficiency action plan for 2011, together with an assessment of the proposals and their implementation. Energy has been divided into five categories for the sake of the media (a fossil/nonrenewable, renewable, electricity, heat, other or unknown network) and on further categories due to the position of carrier: liquid, solid, gas and unknown (in the case of estimates). Electricity and heat network were not divided into subcategories. The whole categorization along with examples is presented in the table below: Category Examples Non- Solid Black coal, coke and lignite, peat Renewable Liquid Petrol, oil and kerosene Gas Natural gas Other Waste incineration, landfill gas, gas Renewable Solid Wood, straw, energy crops Liquid Vegetable oil, biodiesel, ethanol, fuels BTL (Biomass-To-Liquid) Gas Biogas, synthetic gas from biomass Other Solar energy and wind energy Table 9. Categorisation of sources of energy Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 28

3.1 Demand energy in the region Illustration 10. Chart. Final energy consumption in the region of Mazovia in 2011. Most of the energy consumed comes from non-renewable sources, especially gas (natural gas). Natural gas consumption in the region of Mazovia was 111258 TJ-about 22% of the domestic consumption. Non-renewable sources account for more than 58% of the total final energy consumption, which in 2011 was in the region of Mazovia 95 035 210 MWh/a. The table below shows the consumption broken down by detailed categories. Type of energy The average MWh/a Nonrenewable-solid 16 777 540 Nonrenewable-liquid 12 052 000 Nonrenewable-gas 26 743 600 Renewable-biogas 10 275 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 29

Renewable-other 14 625 Electricity 12 668 000 The heat network 26 769 170 Table 11. The total final energy consumption broken down by categories. The following graph shows electricity consumption (around 13% of total energy consumption), with a breakdown by sectors and Mazovia Voivodeship and in Poland. Illustration 9. Chart electricity consumption in the region of Mazovia according to sectors of the economy in 2012 source: Statistical Office, Warsaw, Vademecum 2013. The following table shows the detailed information about the number of electricity consumers and its quantity, broken down by town and village in the years 2000-2011. Description 2000 2005 2010 2011 Number of recipients (thousends) Jointly 1483,9 1960 2089 2108,2 City 1259,7 1377,3 1490,6 1502,7 Village 224,2 582,7 598,4 605,5 The annual consumption of energy (in GWh) Jointly 3076 4086,3 4678,3 4684,9 City 2554,2 2786,5 3102,2 3105,1 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 30

Village 521,9 1299,8 1576,1 1579,9 Per capita energy consumption (in KWh) City 772,9 836 919,2 917,1 Averaged 2027,6 2023,2 2081,2 2066,4 Village 2327,8 2230,7 2634 2609,1 Table 10. The consumers and the consumption of electricity in households. Source: "Statistical Yearbook Of Mazovia" 2012, " the Statistical Office in Warsaw, 2012. You may experience an increase in energy consumption, large, especially in the years 2000-2005 and in relation to the village. In recent years energy consumption per capita dropped, which most likely has to do with the increase in the number of recipients and implemented programmes to increase energy efficiency. 3.1.1 Electricity generation The following chart shows the production of electricity in the region of Mazovia in 2011, divided into categories. Total production amounted to 37 021 499 MWh/a. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 31

Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 32

Illustration 11. Chart. Electricity production in the region of Mazovia in 2011. As you can see from the data above, there is a big difference between production and local consumption of electricity; production is almost three times higher. This is due to the necessity of supplying electricity to the north regions of Mazovia. Only 5% of electricity in the region of Mazovia is produced from renewable energy sources. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 33

3.1.2 Heat production Datenreihen1; Odnawialne - stałe; 942106 Datenreihen1; Nieodnawialne - gazowe; 242603 Datenreihen1; Nieodnawialne - inne; 1534516 Datenreihen1; Nieodnawialne - płynne; 2923168 Produkcja ciepła sieciowego Datenreihen1; Nieodnawialne - stałe; 10849146 Illustration 12 Chart. Heat production network in Mazovia 2011. As you can see from the above chart, the share of renewables in heat production network is small - it amounts to exactly 5.7%. The vast majority of district heat is produced by heating plants using coal and without cogeneration. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 34

3.1.3 Production of liquid fuels Production of liquid fuels in Mazovia deals mainly with PKN Orlen. The following table shows the production of belonging to PKN Orlen refinery in Plock: Type of production Amount (in thous. tonnes) Crude oil 14 547 Total gasoline 2 469 Total diesel oil 5 646 Heating oil 372 Aviation fuel 393 Propane-butane fraction 186 Total fuel 9 066 Tabela 1. Wielkość produkcji wybranych produktów rafineryjnych w płockiej rafinerii w 2011 r. Źródło: PKN Orlen Raport Roczny 2011, Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S. A. 4 On Polish territory there are currently 85 sources of crude oil, but in the Mazovia does not lead to any significant production. In addition, overall 97.4% of the oil consumed in the country comes from outside the Poland - including as many as 89.5 percent from the former Soviet Union. It is clear that the functioning of the Polish oil industry (including the Plock refinery) depends mainly on the raw material policy of Russia. In Mazovia region there is no significant production of liquid fuels from renewable sources. 4 Raporty roczne Orlenu są dostępne w Internecie: http://www.orlen.pl/pl/biuroprasowe/raportyroczne/strony/default.aspx Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 35

3.2 Energy potential in the region Currently, the energy produced from renewable sources in the Mazowieckie voivodship is only about a quarter of a per mille of the total final energy consumption. For comparison, the nationwide share of renewables in final energy consumption in 2010 was 9.5% and EU targets require our country achieve by 2020 the share of RES at least at the level of 15%. Potencjał wolnych środków Datenreihen1; Rolnictwo (produkty uboczne); 156200,96 Datenreihen1; Energia wodna; 51402,502 Datenreihen1; Energia wiatrowa; 39562,38 Datenreihen1; Sadownictwo (produkty uboczne); 7039,36 Illustration 6. potential free resources. Energy source Percentage of activation free resources Hydropower 61% Wind energy 78% Arboriculture (by-products) 32% Agriculture (by-products) 32% Table 13 Percentage of activation potential of available resources. Source: "Analysis of the energy sector of Mazovia province in terms of demand for electricity, heat and liquid and gaseous fuels in various sectors of the economy", M. Wielomska, National Energy Agency (final report of the study "Assessment of energy demand in Mazovia" within WP3). Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 36

Potencjał; Odnawialne Wykorzystanie zasobów - aktualne (2011) i potencjalne Obecnie; inne; Odnawialne 0 inne; 0 Potencjał; Płynna Obecnie; biomasa; Płynna 0 biomasa; 0 Potencjał; Biogaz (ciepło Obecnie; sieciowe); Biogaz (ciepło 0 sieciowe); 10275 Potencjał; Produkty uboczne Obecnie; z przetwarzania Produkty uboczne upraw z i przetwarzania drewna; 0 upraw i Potencjał; drewna; 0 Rolnictwo Obecnie; (produkty Rolnictwo uboczne); (produkty uboczne); 488128 0 Potencjał; Biomasa z łąk Obecnie; i pastwisk; Biomasa 0 z łąk i pastwisk; 0 Potencjał; Sadownictwo Obecnie; (produkty Sadownictwo uboczne); (produkty 21998 uboczne); 0 Potencjał; Leśnictwo (produkty i produkty uboczne); 1242910 Potencjał; Energia geotermalna (elektryczność); 2416667 Obecnie; Energia geotermalna (elektryczność); 0 Potencjał; Energia geotermalna Obecnie; Energia (ciepło); 0 geotermalna (ciepło); 0 Obecnie; Energia słoneczna (ciepło); 0 Potencjał; Energia Obecnie; słoneczna Energia (elektryczność); słoneczna 0 (elektryczność); 0 Potencjał; Energia Obecnie; wiatrowa; Energia 232000 wiatrowa; 0 Potencjał; Energia Obecnie; wodna; Energia 156500 wodna; 0 Potencjał; Energia słoneczna (ciepło); 3027778 Potencjał Obecnie Obecnie; Leśnictwo (produkty i produkty uboczne); 5178384 Ilustracja 7. Wykres zasobów OZE i ich obecnego wykorzystania (2011). The decline of the forestry resource potential is due to the forecasts of co-firing coal with wood. So far the plants often used this method to increase the share of renewables in energy production. However, the planned law on RES will result in a significant reduction in Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 37

the viability of this solution. It is expected, therefore, that in the future the burning of wood and other forest products will lose its importance. 3.2.1 Fossil energy sources As you can see from the map below, in the Mazovia Region are many areas of potential resource so colled shale gas. Disputed, however, is the question of how resources are important economically. Initial extremely optimistic forecasts proved to have no basis 5. 5 Zob. Gaz pojawia się i znika, czyli krótka historia szacowania zasobów węglowodorów niekonwencjonalnych w Polsce, Rutkowski Mirosław, Przegląd Geologiczny 6/2013. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 38

Ilustracja 8. Mapa potencjalnych złóż gazu łupkowego w Polsce. Źródło: strona internetowa Państwowego Instytutu Geologicznego, link: http://www.pgi.gov.pl/pl/instytut-geologiczny-surowcemineralne/gaz-lupkowy/4061-gdzie-w-polsce-gaz-lupkowy-i-gaz-zamkniety.html According to the National Institutes of Geological most likely are the following amounts of gas: "The estimated total recoverable reserves of natural gas for onshore and shelf part of the basin are located in a very wide range from 37.9 billion m3 to 1919.7 billion m 3. Extreme values, however, have a very low probability. With the adoption of the calculation parameters deemed most likely these resources range from 346.1 billion m3 to 767.9 billion m3. " In addition to the potential resources of natural gas from shale Mazovia has no significant fossil energy sources. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 39

3.2.2 Renewable energy sources 6 Biomass and biogas derived from agricultural production. Mazovia has one of the highest potentials of agricultural biogas due to agriculture. Mazovia is on the first place on agricultural production, as shown in the table below: Ilustracja 9. Tabela przedstawiająca procentowy udział wybranych artykułów rolnych wytwarzanych na Mazowszu w produkcji krajowej w 2012 r. Źródło: Urząd Statystyczny w Warszawie, Vademecum Samorządowca 2013 This potential is not currently used. Most of the waste and by-products resulting from the production of agricultural wasted. According to MEA estimates, the best conditions for the construction of biogas plants using agricultural production are "in the districts of Mława, Płock, Siedlce, Żuromin, Sierpc, Płońsk, Ostrow, Ostrołęcki" which are areas characterized by a high concentration of animal breeding. 6 Wartym polecenia źródłem informacji (zawierającym m. in. spis wszystkich instalacji OZE na Mazowszu według powiatów) jest prezentacja wykonana dla Stowarzyszenia Wiedza dla Regionu przez Marka Biedrzyckiego: www.wiedzadlaregionu.pl/files/oze_przyszloscia_na_mazowszu(1).pdf Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 40

Solar Energy Ilustracja 10. Mapa średniego rocznego usłonecznienia na terytorium Polski. Źródło: Atlas klimatu Polski pod redakcją Haliny Lorenc, Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej, Warszawa 2005 According to the MEA technical potential of solar energy in the Mazovia region is about 10 900 TJ and while that remains almost entirely unused 7. Wind energy 7 Rozproszone odnawialne źródła energii, stan obecny i oczekiwania. 64. spotkanie Forum Energia Środowisko, Włodzimierz Pomierny; Źródło internetowe: www.forumees.pl/gfx/ees/userfiles/files/64_forum/1.pdf Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 41

Ilustracja 11. Mapa średniej prędkości wiatru na terytorium Polski. Źródło: Atlas klimatu Polski pod redakcją Haliny Lorenc, Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej, Warszawa 2005 The western part of the Mazovia region is located on the mesoscale level, or "very favorable". Other areas in most qualify as "very beneficial". This creates the perfect conditions for the extension of wind power installations. But keep in mind other factors, i.a. the third largest population density in Poland. Wind turbines are generally considered to be loud, disfiguring the landscape and general nuisance to people living nearby. The sites chosen for the construction of wind power plants must be so convenient also in this respect: Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 42

be further from the buildings or be accepted by the locals. This may limit the potential of wind energy in Mazovia. Geothermal Energy Mazovia is supported in one geothermal heating plant: in the municipality of Mszczonów. It is estimated that in the geological district Grudziądz-Warsaw (largely coinciding with the Mazowieckie) is about 3000 km3 of geothermal energy containing the order of 168 000 tons of coal / km2. "Most favorable conditions for the use of geothermal energy in the district of Plock, Żuromin, Płońsk, Sierpc, Sochaczew, Żyrardowski. Construction of geothermal systems can be profitable in most of the places where it is possible to pick up the heat in a solid, large quantity. The attractiveness of plant construction is conditional on the performance of geothermal wells that will provide a sufficiently high flow of water at the right temperature. Good conditions occur in cities Zyrardów, Blonie, Gostynin, Plock, Sochaczew, while in towns Nowy Dwór Maz., Grodzisk Maz., Grójec, Arkadiusz, Warsaw, Pruszkow, Plonsk, Piastów conditions is defined as the average " 8. 8 Źródło: http://www.mae.com.pl/odnawialne-zrodla-energii-energia-geotermalna.html Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 43

3.3 Comparison of available resources and the current demand for energy in the region 3.3.1 The coverage ratio regional production BALANCE AFTER BALANCE OF CURRENT CONSIDERATION OF SITUATION; Fossil SAVINGS POTENTIAL; Gaseous; 26.743.600 Fossil Gaseous; 24.069.240 BALANCE AFTER BALANCE CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OF SAVINGS SITUATION; POTENTIAL; BALANCE Fossil AFTER Solid; Fossil 16.777.540 Solid; 15.099.786 BALANCE CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OF SITUATION; SAVINGS POTENTIAL; Fossil Loquid; Fossil 12.052.000 Loquid; 10.846.800 DEMAND FINAL ENERGY [MWh/a] BALANCE OF CURRENT SITUATION BALANCE AFTER BALANCE OF CURRENT CONSIDERATION OF SITUATION; District SAVINGS POTENTIAL; heating; 26.769.170 District heating; 24.092.253 BALANCE AFTER CONSIDERATION OF SAVINGS POTENTIAL BALANCE AFTER BALANCE CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OF SITUATION; SAVINGS POTENTIAL; Electric current; Electric 12.668.000 current; 11.401.200 BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER BALANCE BALANCE CONSIDERATION AFTER OF BALANCE CURRENT CONSIDERATION OF OF CURRENT OF BALANCE CONSIDERATION OF BALANCE CURRENT CONSIDERATION OF BALANCE OF CURRENT CONSIDERATION OF OF CURRENT SAVINGS SITUATION; OF POTENTIAL; SAVINGS SITUATION; POTENTIAL; SITUATION; SAVINGS POTENTIAL; SAVINGS Fossil SITUATION; POTENTIAL; SAVINGS SITUATION; POTENTIAL; Renewable Gaseous; Renewable Other; Other; Fossil Other; Other; - Renewable - Solid; Renewable Solid; - - Liquid; Liquid; 10.275-9.248-14.625 13.163 BALANCE AFTER BALANCE CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OF SITUATION; SAVINGS POTENTIAL; Unknown; Unknown; - - Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 44

Ilustracja 12. Wykres. Końcowe zapotrzebowanie na energię 3.3.2 The coverage ratio - including potential free resources COVERING RATE OF REGIONAL PRODUCTION BALANCE AFTER CONSIDERATION OF SAVINGS POTENTIAL BALANCE AFTER CONSIDERATION OF BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER CONSIDERATION AND CHOSEN OF SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; Electric Electric current; 307% BALANCE AFTER CONSIDERATION OF SAVINGS POTENTIALS AND CHOSEN SCENARIO BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER CONSIDERATION OF CONSIDERATION OF CONSIDERATION OF BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER CONSIDERATION AND CHOSEN OF CONSIDERATION AND CHOSEN OF BALANCE AFTER CONSIDERATION AND CHOSEN OF SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; Fossil SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; CONSIDERATION OF SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; Fossil Gaseous; 128% Renewable Gaseous; SAVINGS BALANCE POTENTIALS AFTER AFTER BALANCE BALANCE AFTER AFTER BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER BALANCE AFTER Renewable Other; Other; 111% 111% CONSIDERATION AND CHOSEN OF OF CONSIDERATION CONSIDERATION OF OF CONSIDERATION CONSIDERATION OF CONSIDERATION OF OF 100% 100% BALANCE SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIALS AFTER POTENTIAL; Unknown; SAVINGS BALANCE BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER POTENTIALS AFTER BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER BALANCE SAVINGS POTENTIALS AFTER CONSIDERATION AND Unknown; CHOSEN 65% OF 65% AND CONSIDERATION CHOSEN AND OF CHOSEN OF CONSIDERATION AND CONSIDERATION CHOSEN AND OF CONSIDERATION CHOSEN AND OF CHOSEN OF SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; District SAVINGS SCENARIO; SAVINGS POTENTIAL; SCENARIO; Fossil POTENTIAL; Fossil SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; SAVINGS Fossil SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; SAVINGS SCENARIO; POTENTIAL; District heating; 20% Fossil Solid; Fossil Solid; 0% Loquid; 0% 0% Fossil Other; Renewable 0% Solid; Renewable Solid; 0% 0% Liquid; Liquid; 0% 0% Ilustracja 13. Wykres wskaźnika pokrycia dla poszczególnych rodzajów źródeł energii. Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 45

4. Possible scenarios for the concept of regions Note: The lines marked on the charts "Europe 2020 savings" do not correspond to the objectives set in terms of saving for Polish. Reduction of 20% in relation to the average final consumption 2001-2005 is required for the "old EU" countries - Poland has achieved only 9%. So do not pay attention to the dotted line described as "Europe 2020 savings / efficiency target on a regional level." 4.1 Scenario without measures - trend scenario Development of final energy demand and use of RES - forward projection of current trend Expected final demand according to current trend in ; 2011; Europe 95.035.210 2020 savings/efficiency target on regional level; 2011; 68.804.397 Expected final demand according to current trend in ; 2020; 108.579.780 Europe 2020 savings/efficiency target on regional level; 2020; 68.804.397 Expected final Expected demand final according to demand according current trend to in ; current trend 2030; in ; 123.629.303 2025; 116.104.542 Europe 2020 Europe 2020 savings/efficiency savings/efficiency target on regional target on regional level; 2025; level; 2030; 68.804.397 68.804.397 Needed amount of Expected RES according to Total renewable amount of Europe RES according 2020 target; potentials; 2011; to current 2011; 14.711.451 7.585.981 trend in ; 2011; 4.553.201 Needed amount of RES according to Europe Expected Total renewable 2020 amount target; of potentials; 2020; RES according 16.808.150 2020; to current 7.585.981 trend in ; 2020; 4.547.441 Needed amount Needed of amount of RES according RES to according to Europe Expected Total renewable 2020 amount Expected Europe target; Total of 2020 renewable amount target; of potentials; 2025; RES according 17.972.983 2025; 2030; RES potentials; to according 19.137.816 2030; to current 7.585.981 trend current in ; 7.585.981 trend in ; 2025; 4.572.388 2030; 4.541.681 Expected final demand according to current trend in Europe 2020 savings/efficiency target on regional level Needed amount of RES according to Europe 2020 target Expected amount of RES according to current trend in Total renewable potentials Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 46

Ilustracja 14. Wykres. Scenariusz tendencji. 1 str 4.2 Scenario based on energy efficiency 1 str Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 47