Debt Market POLISH NON-GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET: Q2 2010 SUMMARY At the end of Q2 2010, the value of the non-government debt market broke PLN 58,7 bn, which represents a 40,5% increase during the last 12 months. In comparison to the end of last quarter, it rose by 15,9%. Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Total debt value PLNm 42 486,08 41 840,63 43 015,92 47 999,87 50 704,25 58 789,07 dynamics (annual) 1,3% -6,1% -8,0% 7,3% 19,3% 40,5% dynamics (quarterly) -5,1% -1,5% 2,8% 11,6% 5,6% 15,9% Commercial Paper PLNm 12 321,84 11 560,35 12 178,25 9 969,92 10 675,00 11 350,86 dynamics (annual) -3,0% -16,8% -18,3% -23,0% -13,4% -1,8% dynamics (quarterly) -4,9% -6,2% 5,3% -18,1% 7,1% 6,3% Corporate bonds (over 365 days) PLNm 13 839,36 13 924,05 13 753,63 12 158,23 13 968,93 14 771,43 dynamics (annual) -1,1% -5,6% -9,2% -18,6% 0,9% 6,1% dynamics (quarterly) -7,4% 0,6% -1,2% -11,6% 14,9% 5,7% number of issuers 85 83 78 71 86 95 Bank debt (over 365 days) PLNm 11 935,13 11 749,27 11 648,21 18 965,64 18 970,20 24 704,42 dynamics (annual) 7,2% -0,2% -7,2% 53,0% 58,9% 110,3% dynamics (quarterly) -3,7% -1,6% -0,9% 62,8% 0,0% 30,2% number of issuers 20 19 15 14 14 19 Municipal bonds (over 365 days) PLNm 4 389,75 4 606,96 5 435,83 6 906,08 7 090,13 7 962,36 dynamics (annual) 6,3% 11,3% 31,3% 54,8% 61,5% 72,8% dynamics (quarterly) -1,6% 4,9% 18,0% 27,0% 2,7% 12,3% number of issuers 366 372 393 415 417 432 Non-government debt market structure by issues placed in Q2 2010 (over 365 days) Non-government debt market (as of June 30, 2010) Corporate bonds 13,94% Commercial Paper 19,31% Corporate bonds (over 365 days maturity) 25,13% Municipal bonds 11,24% Bank debt 74,82% Municipal bonds (over 365 days maturity) 13,54% Bank debt (over 365 days maturity) 42,02% (PLN mln) Statistics of the non-government debt market, June 30, 2009 June 30, 2010 Commercial Paper Corporate bonds Bank debt Municipal bonds 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 2009-06-30 2009-07-31 2009-08-31 2009-09-30 2009-10-31 2009-11-30 2009-12-31 2010-01-31 2010-02-28 2010-03-31 2010-04-30 2010-05-31 2010-06-30 1
Non-government debt market flows in 2010, as of June 30, 2010 Q1 2010 PLN mln Q2 2010 PLN mln Issues Introduced Redempt Introduced Redempt corporations 1 693,96 151,90 1 151,13 362,49 banks 122,28 76,06 6 177,83 533,14 municipalities 362,96 20,56 928,26 210,97 Total 2 179,20 248,52 8 257,22 1 106,60 Bonds placed in Q2 2010 - lead manager's share (over 365 days) DM Banku Handlowego/Bank Handlowy 3,330% Other 7,990% Grupa BRE Banku 7,618% BGK 73,439% Pekao SA 7,623% Commercial Paper (CP) Market In Q2 2010 the value of Commercial Paper debt market reached PLN 11,35 bn, a decrease of 1,8% y/y, and quarterly dynamics of +6,3%. There are 16 lead managers and dealers on the market, with 5 largest: Pekao SA, PKO BP, BRE Bank, Bank Handlowy, ING Bank Śląski holding a total market share of 90,5%. CPs constituted 19,31% of the total market value. Market share of leading CP organizers by debt value Pekao SA PKO BP BRE Bank Bank Handlowy ING Bank Śląski Other 5,4% 19,6% 16,8% 22,1% 14,8% 21,7% 11,9% 13,1% 9,5% 12,1% 27,4% 25,5% 2010-06-30 2010-03-31 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2
Corporate Bond Market (with maturities over 365 days) In Q2 2010 the value of the corporate bond market with maturities over 365 days amounted to PLN 14,77 bn. Quarterly dynamics were +5,7%, while yearly amounted to +6,1%. In Q2 2010 new issues with a total value of PLN 1,15 mld were placed on the market by: AK Inwestor Sp. z o.o., A-Z Finanse S.A., BYDGOSTA Sp. z o.o., Dom Development SA, Echo Investment SA, EFL SA, Integer SA, Internetowy Dom Handlowy S.A., LAMELA Sp. z o.o, Magellan SA, Multimedia Polska S.A., MW Trade SA, MWiK w Bydgoszczy Sp. z o.o., NFI Empik SA, NTP sp. z o.o., Polnord SA, Speed Car Sp. z o.o., Winkowski Dewelopment Sp. z o.o., Zakład Komunikacji Miejskiej w Gdańsku Sp. z o.o. Corporate bond issues constituted 25,13% of the total market value. Corporate bonds placed in Q2 2010 - lead managers' share (over 365 days) Other 13,70% Pekao SA 54,68% Bank Handlowy 6,08% BRE Bank 25,54% Bank Debt Market (with maturities over 365 days) The value of outstanding bank debt, with maturities over 365 days amounted to PLN 24,7 bn. Yearly dynamics amounted to +110,3% and quarterly +30,2% In Q2 2010 there were issues of Bank Millennium, Bank Spółdzielczy w Piasecznie, Bank Spółdzielczy w Piątnicy, BRE Bank Hipoteczny, BS Biała Rawska, Orzesko Knurowski Bank Spółdzielczy, Podlasko - Mazurski Bank Spółdzielczy w Zabłudowie, Polski Bank Spółdzielczy w Ciechanowie and infrastructural bonds of BGK.. The total value of all these issues amounted to PLN 6,18 bn. Bank non-government debt issues constituted 42,02% of the total market value. Bank debt placed in Q2 2010 - lead managers' share (over 365 days) Bank Millennium 0,88% BGK 97,73% BRE Bank 0,81% Bank BPS/Dom Maklerski BPS 0,58% 3
Municipal Bonds (with maturities over 365 days) In Q2 2010 the value of the municipal market amounted to PLN 7,96 bn. Yearly dynamics were 72,8%, while quarterly amounted to 12,3%. In Q2 2010 new municipal bonds with total value of PLN 928,26 mln were issued by municipalities: Brodnica, Brzeg Dolny, Brzesko, Bydgoszcz, Bytów, Chełm, Chęciny, Chmielnik, Cieszków, Czarne, Czerwionka Leszczyny, Dęblin, Dobroszyce, Drezdenko, Duszniki- Zdrój, Garwolin, Gronowo Elbląskie, Grójec, Inowrocław, Izabelin, Jastków, Jedlina-Zdrój, Jutrosin, Kartuzy, Kobylanka, Kołobrzeg, Komorniki, Koronowo, Kościan, Kościerzyna, Koźmin Wielkopolski, Lipno, Lubniewice, Łapy, Łomianki, Malczyce, Małomice, Margonin, Męcinka, Miastków Kościelny, Mieścisko, Milicz, Mogilany, Murowana Goślina, Nidzica, Nowa Ruda (gmina), Nowa Ruda (miasto), Nowa Wieś Lęborska, Nowe Skalmierzyce, Oborniki Śląskie, Oleśnica, Olkusz, Olszanka, Orneta, Pabianice, Pakosław, Pełczyce, Polanica- Zdrój, Połczyn-Zdrój, Prabuty, Proszowice, Puławy, Pułtusk, Rakoniewice, Sandomierz, Skoczów, Sława, Słupsk, Sokołów Podlaski, Solec Kujawski, Starachowice, Stargard Szczeciński, Sulejówek, Swarzędz, Szczawnica, Świeradów Zdrój, Świętochłowice, Tarczyn, Tarnów Opolski, Trzebiatów, Ustka, Ustronie Morskie, Wałbrzych, Warnice, Warszawa, Węgrów, Widuchowa, Wodzisław Śląski, Zduny, Zielonki and poviats: Gniezno, Kartuzy, Kościerzyna, Lipsko, Milicz, Puck, Starogard, Szczecinek, Węgorzewo, Wołów, Zielona Góra, Żary. Municipal bond issues constituted 13,54% of the total market value. Municipal bonds placed in Q2 2010 - lead managers' share DM Banku Handlowego 22,08% PKO Bank Polski 16,00% Grupa Raiffeisen 11,85% Grupa BRE Banku 30,70% Nordea Bank Polska 7,93% Other 11,44% 4
Investors May 2010 Banks owned: 88,34% of all mortgage bonds 82,27% of all municipal issues 32,68% of all bank issues (short- and long-term) 20,57% of all corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues. Corporates had in their portfolios: 36,30% of all corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues 4,54% of all issues of bank papers. 0,02% of all municipal issues Foreign investors preferred: municipal bonds (8,15%) corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues (6,90%) mortgage bonds (3,37%) bank papers (0,61%). Pension funds invested in: bank bonds (13,84%) corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues (8,79%) municipal bonds (5,24%) mortgage bonds (5,24%) Investment funds had: 21,34% of all issues of bank papers 19,16% of all corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues 3,05% of mortgage bonds 2,11% of municipal bonds Insurance companies held: bank papers (7,92%) corporate issues and other (non-bank) short-term issues (4,42%) municipal bonds (2,16%) Investors: non-government debt instruments in banks and customers portfolios, as of May 31, 2010 (based on data from 16 banks) Bank debt instruments Other debt instruments (PLNm) Total Up to 365 days Over 365 days Mortgage Bonds Municipal bonds Total Up to 365 days Over 365 days Total Banks 3 778,02 817,00 2 961,02 1 101,37 4 186,50 5 530,61 401,50 5 129,11 14 596,50 Insurance companies 915,17 109,50 805,67 0,00 109,99 1 188,85 108,98 1 079,87 2 214,01 Pension funds 1 600,30 125,00 1 475,30 65,32 266,88 2 364,60 11,10 2 353,50 4 297,10 Investment funds 2 466,40 1 269,00 1 197,40 38,00 107,29 5 151,10 723,70 4 427,40 7 762,79 Corporates 524,93 400,50 124,43 0,00 0,96 9 761,20 5 884,33 3 876,87 10 287,09 Foreign entities 70,58 0,00 70,58 41,98 414,90 1 854,12 934,48 919,64 2 381,58 Other financial institutions 60,00 60,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 226,91 83,53 143,38 286,91 Other entities 2 144,59 10,53 2 134,06 0,00 2,00 811,99 618,03 193,96 2 958,58 Total 11 559,99 2 791,53 8 768,46 1 246,67 5 088,52 26 889,38 8 765,65 18 123,73 44 784,56 Source: The National Bank of Poland Investors in non-government debt (long- and short-term), as of May 31, 2010 Corporates 22,97% Investment funds 17,33% Foreign entities 5,32% Pension funds 9,60% Other financial institutions 0,64% Insurance companies 4,94% Source: National Bank of Poland, based on data from 16 banks Banks 32,59% Other entities 6,61% 5
Foreign currency Long-term Local currency International ratings Short-term Foreign currency Local currency 6 Individual rating Support rating Support rating floor National ratings Long-term Corporates Aquanet BBB- A- (pol) ORBIS BBB+(pol) PKN Orlen BB+ BB+ B B PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna BBB+ BBB+ Przedsiębiorstwo Wodociągów i Kanalizacji Olsztyn Tauron Polska Energia BBB BBB Telekomunikacja Polska BBB+ F2 Zakład Komunikacji Miejskiej w Gdańsku BBB- A (pol) Financial Institutions Bank Handlowy w Warszawie 1 Bank Millennium A F1 C/D 1 AA+ (pol) Bank Ochrony Środowiska BBB F3 D 2 BBB Bank Pekao A- F2 C 1 Bank Zachodni WBK BBB+ F2 C 3 BB BRE Bank A F1 C/D 1 BRE Leasing A F1 1 Short-term Electus B- B- B B B+ (pol) B (pol) Getin Noble Bank BB B D 5 ING Bank Śląski A F1 C 1 PKO BP 2 Municipalities Białystok BBB BBB A (pol) Bielsko-Biała BBB+ BBB+ AA- (pol) Bydgoszcz BBB BBB A (pol) Częstochowa BBB BBB Gdańsk BBB+ BBB+ Gliwice BBB BBB A (pol) Jarocin BBB + (pol) Katowice A- A- Kielce BBB- BBB- A-(pol) Koszalin BBB-(pol) Łódź BBB+ BBB+ AA- (pol) Myślenice Olsztyn Opole Ostrów Wielkopolski BBB + (pol) Płock BBB+ BBB+ AA-(pol) Ruda Śląska Rybnik Rzeszów BBB BBB A+ (pol) Sochaczew Szczecin BBB+ BBB+ F2 Warszawa A-(pol) A-(pol) A (pol) BBB- (pol) AAA (pol) Wrocław A- A- AA- (pol) Zabrze BBB- BBB- A- (pol) Zielona Góra BBB- BBB- A- (pol) Regions Województwo dolnośląskie A- A- AA (pol) Województwo łódzkie A- A- AA- (pol) Województwo małopolskie A- A- AA (pol) Województwo mazowieckie A- A AAA (pol) Województwo wielkopolskie A- A F2 AA+(pol) Revenue bonds Miejskie Przedsiębiorstwo Komunikacyjne Łódź BBB- Miejskie Wodociągi i Kanalizacja w Bydgoszczy BBB- Zakład Komunikacji Miejskiej w Gdańsku BBB A+ (pol) F3 (pol)
Insurance Companies Insurer Financial Strength National Insurer Financial Strength Towarzystwo Ubezpieczeń na Życie EUROPA SA BB Towarzystwo Ubezpieczeń EUROPA SA BB Country Long Term Issuer Default Short Term Issuer Local Currency Long Term Issuer Country Ceiling Rating Default Rating Default Rating Poland A- F2 A AA- Bulgaria BBB- F3 BBB BBB+ Croatia BBB- F3 BBB BBB+ Czech Rep. A+ F1 AA- AA+ Estonia BBB+ F2 A- A+ Lithuania BBB F3 BBB+ A Latvia BB+ B BBB- BBB Macedonia BB+ B BB+ BBB- Serbia BB- B BB- BB- Slovakia A+ F1 A+ AAA Slovenia AA F1+ AA AAA Hungary BBB F3 BBB+ A Outlook POSITIVE NEGATIVE EVOLVING STABLE Watch POSITIVE NEGATIVE EVOLVING Selected press releases and rating actions Q2 2010: 2010-06-11 Fitch Affirms Poland's MWiK's Revenue Bonds Rating at 'BBB-' 2010-06-09 Fitch Affirms TU EUROPA SA Insurance Companies IFS at 'BB'; Off RWE; Assigns Stable Outlook 2010-06-09 Fitch Affirms Getin Noble Bank at BB ; Off RWE; Assigns Stable Outlook 2010-06-08 Fitch Assigns Bank Millennium National Rating of AA+(pol) ; Affirms Other Ratings 2010-06-02 Fitch Revises Region of Mazowieckie's Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'A-' 2010-06-02 Fitch Rates ZKM Gdansk and Takes Various Rating Actions on Bond Programmes 2010-06-02 Fitch affirms Polish Region of Wielkopolska at 'A-'; Outlook Stable 2010-05-27 Fitch Affirms PWiK's National LT Rating of 'BBB(pol)' 2010-05-26 Fitch Affirms Polish City of Olsztyn at 'BBB+(pol)'; Outlook Stable 2010-05-12 Fitch Revises Bank Zachodni WBK's Outlook to Stable; Affirms 'BBB+' IDR 2010-05-07 Fitch Assigns City of Warsaw's PLN300m Bond Final Rating of 'AAA(pol)' 2010-04-23 Fitch Assigns City of Warsaw's Upcoming Bond Expected 'AAA(pol)' Rating 7
2010-04-20 Fitch: Polish Non-Government Debt Market Q1 2010 Summary 2010-04-16 Fitch Affirmed City of Warsaw at 'AAA(pol)'; Outlook Stable 2010-04-08 Fitch Rates Poland's Tauron 'BBB'; Outlook Stable 2010-04-01 Fitch Assigns City of Bydgoszcz National Long-Term Rating of A(pol) ; Outlook Stable 2010-04-01 Fitch Affirms Region of Malopolska at 'A-'; Outlook Stable This document has been prepared by employees of Fitch Polska S.A.; address: Zielna Str. 37. 00-108 Warsaw. Poland. phone: (+48 22) 338-62-80; fax: (+48 22) 338-62-30; e-mail: rating@fitchpolska.com.pl. http://www.fitchpolska.com.pl Fitch Polska S.A. has used due care in the preparation of this document. Our information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Fitch Polska S.A. shall owe no liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or damage caused by or resulting from any error in such information. None of the information in this document may be copied or otherwise reproduced, stored or disseminated in whole or in part in any form or by any means whatsoever by any person without Fitch Polska S.A. prior written consent. Our reports and ratings constitute opinions, not recommendations to buy or to sell. 8