Lessach, Austria, 19-24 September 2011 ICOLE 11 Development of a species index and optimization of production technology for selected energy crops Anna Gotfryd, Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz Institute of Computing Science Poznan University of Technology The project titled "Development of a species index and optimization of production technology of selected energy crops", is financed by the European Regional Development Fund under the Operational Programme Innovative Economy 2007-2013
Consortium Agri-Centre of Innovative Technologies Poznan University of Technology Poznan University of Life Sciences Lodz University of Technology Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation in Pulawy 2
Plan of presentation 1. World energy situation and the need to seek renewable energy sources 2. Project modules 3. BIOPOWER application 3
Factors determining the energy balance of the world by 2050 Trends and dynamic of changes in energy use Share of energy resources within the overall energy consumption Climate change Depletion of fossil fuels The increase in energy demand Social and demographic changes The concept of a wider use of RES Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 4
Changes in energy consumption in the U.S. (in %) Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 5
The structure of energy sources currently used in the world Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 6
Structure of fuel consumption in the European Union Source : Grochal 2006 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 7
Forcasts for peak oil extraction source: http://www.peakoil.pl/s/ropa Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 8
World energy demand 2007-2035 Spurce: EIA 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 9
Relationships between socio-economic phenomena and energy consumption Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 10
PJ Source: IEO 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 11
The increase in the renewable energy sector by 2020 in PJ Source: IEO 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 12
Relationships between the civilisational development and the available energy Source: Kozubowski 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 13
Agricultural land area per one inhabitant in Europe (ha) Source: GUS Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 14
Prognosis of Polish agriculture production capacity of biomass used for energy production for the purposes of fuel substitution by 2020 Identification of RES in Poland and their potential: Biomass energetics Geothermal energetics Hydroenergetics Wind energetics Solar energetics Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 15
Biomass -Sources of biomass -Perspective section of biomass in renewable energy production in Poland -The balance of biomass energy in Poland, recapitulating the potential demand and possible supply -The potential of biomass production from agriculture production of biofuels from agricultural biomass biogas production from agricultural biomass area intended for the production of agricultural raw materials for use as liquid biofuels and biogas -The share of biomass for use as biogas and biofuels in the total production of biomass in Poland by Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 16
Main study results to be obtained analyse of the main trends of development in the energy sector and the importance of renewable energy sources (including, in particular liquid biofuels and biogas) those issues were identified: 1 / global dynamics of changes in energy use; 2 / the contribution of different energy sources in overall energy balance in the world, in Europe and in Poland, 3 / biomass energy balance in Poland summarizing potential demand and possible supply. 4 / biomass share in total production of renewable energy in Poland 5 / biomass for use as biogas and biofuels in the total biomass production in Poland 6 / acreage intended for the production of raw materials intended for liquid biofuels and biogas, 7 / capabilities and limitations of the production of biofuels and biogas out of plants taken into consideration in the project. by Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 17
Key research problems: Module I: Optimization of quality parameters of cultivars/strains of cereals, sugar beets, maize and sorghum from the point of view of production of biofuel and biogas. sugar beets cereals maize by Dariusz Majchrzycki 18
Module II: Optimization of cultivation methods for cereals, sugar beets, maize, sorghum, Virginia fanpetals and reed Canary-grass to be used for biofuel and biogas in terms of variation in soil and climatic conditions. Running of trials for selected cultivars of: cereals, sugar beets, maize, sorghum, Virginia fanpetals and reed Canary-grass in order to develop technologies optimal for the production of high-quality raw material for the production of energy in the liquid and gas forms in terms of variation in soil and climatic conditions. by Karol Wajszczuk 19
Analysis Lokalizacja Localisation Mochełek Jelcz- Laskowice Osiny Grabów Odmiana/ Variety Vitras Bosman Plon zielonej masy(t/ha) Yield in green mass (t/ha) Plon kiszonki (t/ha) Yield in silage (t/ha) Wartość produkcji, w tym: The value of production, including: wartość plonu (cena 100 zł/t kiszonki) yield value (price 100 zł / t silage) płatności obszarowe (JPO + UPO) payment for area 44,3 95,8 69,1 40,4 33,2 71,9 51,8 30,3 4186 8048 6042 3893 3323 7185 5179 3030 863 863 863 863 20
Lokalizacja Localisation Analysis Mochełek Jelcz- Laskowice Osiny Odmiana/ Variety Vitras Bosman Koszty bezpośrednie, w tym: Direct costs, including: nawozy (NPK-120, 60, 80) fertilizers środki ochrony roślin pesticides Koszty pośrednie, w tym: Indirect costs, including: koszt mechanizacji cost of mechanization koszt pracy labor cost Koszty ogółem zł/ha Total costs zł /ha Koszty ogółem zł/t kiszonki Total costs zł /t silage Koszty produkcji/ Production costs (zł/ha) Grabów 1816 2039 1894 1701 962 962 962 962 186 186 186 186 1175 1695 1530 1277 886 1296 1085 886 241 352 295 241 3383 4264 3883 3370 102 59 75 21 111
Analysis Lokalizacja Localisation Mochełek Jelcz- Laskowice Osiny Grabów Odmiana/ Variety Vitras Bosman Wynik finansowy/ Financial result (zł/ha) Zysk/Strata bez płatności obszarowych Profit / Loss without payments for area Zysk/Strata z płatnościami obszarowymi Profit / Loss with payments for area -60 2921 1295-340 803 3784 2159 524 22
Module III : Determination of prospects for cultivation of energy crops in Poland and determination of profitability of production and energy balance for investigated crops and proposed technologies. Determination of the macroeconomic context connected with production of energy crops. Identification of outlays and volume of production for analyzed technologies based on field trials established throughout the country. Economic analysis of proposed model production technologies of tested crops under specific soil and climatic conditions. Development of a computer programme to determine optimal production technology of tested crops, taking into consideration climatic and soil conditions, ecological and economic aspects. by Karol Wajszczuk 23
Development of software for decision support and optimization technology Domain 1 - Gathering and processing the input data Domain 2 - Assessment of the environmental friendliness of technology Domain 3 - Evaluation of the economic aspect 24 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Spiral model of software development 25 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Application Diagram BioPower 26 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
27 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Rejestracja użytkownika by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Logowanie by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Dane ogólne by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Maszyny by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Budynki by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Pola by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz
Analytical module for farmer DSS 1. Variety of data objects and representation 2. Costs calculations dependencies 3. Learning system reference data 4. Historical data management system 34
Thank you for your attention Grzegorz Pawlak grzegorz.pawlak@cs.put.poznan.pl 35