MULTI-MODEL PROJECTION OF TEMPERATURE EXTREMES IN POLAND IN 2021-2050 Joanna Jędruszkiewicz Department of Meteorology and Climatology University of Lodz, Poland jjedruszkiewicz@gmail.com Funded by grant of Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education Co-funded by the European Union under the European Social Fund HUMAN - BEST INVESTMENT!
Outline: 1. Motivation 2. Data 3. Methods 4. Observation vs multi-model 5. Multiyear seasonal changes of the temperature extremes 6. Indices of spatial variablity 7. Summary
Motivation Changes in extreme temperature have a significant influence on human health, everyday life and economy, mainly such sectors as agriculture, water resources and energy system. Large divergence of regional climate model projections leads to a higher uncertainty of future changes in extreme temperaures. A multi-model gives the opportunity to obtain more reliable results. Main goal of this presentation is the estimation of changes in extreme temperature on the basis of relative and absolute methods.
Data 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology Regional Climate Model simulation (daily maximum and minimum temperature) for A1B scenario with 25km resolution for 1971-2000 and 2021-2050 were obtaind from ENSEMBLES project (RCA, HIRHAM5, HIRHAM, RegCM3, RACMO2, HadRM3) and Max Planck Institute (CLM). Observation data (daily maximum and minimum temperatures) from 40 station over Poland for 1971-2000 period were obtaind from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute. Szczecin Słubice Resko Koszalin Gorzów Wielkopolski Zielona Góra Jelenia Góra Piła Poznań Wrocław Kłodzko Łeba Ustka Lębork Chojnice Kalisz Opole Toruń Hel Elbląg Katowice Łódź Bielsko-Biała Olsztyn Mława Kraków Zakopane Kielce Kętrzyn Warszawa Tarnów Nowy Sącz Siedlce Rzeszów Suwałki Lublin Lesko Białystok Włodawa PN.
Methods common grid resolution (0.25 ) for observation and model data Correction of simulated data for 2021-2050 period (quintile quintile method) Relative Threshold Seasonal maximum and minimum temperature changes in 5,25,50,75,95th between multi-model projections (2021-2050) and observations (1971-2000)
Absolute Threshold Indices: Hot Days Tmax 30 C Summer Days Tmax 25 C Tropical Nights Tmin>20 C Frost Days Tmin<0 C Ice Days Tmax<0 C
Tmax Model HadRM3 was excluded from multi-model projection (outstanding warm results) Without HadRM3 with HadRM3 DJF 5th JJA 95th
Ice Days Szczecin Poznan Warszawa Lublin HIRHAM 17 22 30 35 CLM 10 14 21 28 RegCM3 19 22 30 37 HadRM3 8 9 14 19 METNO 13 15 21 28 Twice fewer ice days RCA 18 22 29 37 RACMO2 18 21 28 35 Hot Days Szczecin Poznan Warszawa Lublin HIRHAM 5 7 6 4 CLM 6 8 6 6 RegCM3 5 8 8 6 HadRM3 12 20 19 19 METNO 6 10 10 8 Twice more hot days RCA 5 8 8 7 RACMO2 6 8 7 5
Observation vs. multi-model (quintiles)
10 Winter 2 C 30 Spring 5 20 2 C Multi-model 0 Multi-model 10-5 -10 0-10 -5 0 5 10 Observation Summer Tmax - Łódź 30 0 10 20 30 Observation Autumn 30 Multi-model 25 20 1-2 C Multi-model 20 10 1-2 C 15 0 15 20 25 30 Observation 0 10 20 30 Observation
Winter Spring 0 10 Multi-model -10 Multi-model 0 1 C -20 2 C -10 20-20 -10 0 Observation Summer Tmin - Łódź -10 0 10 Observation Autumn 10 16 Multi-model 12 Multi-model 0 8 2-3 C 1 C 4 4 8 12 16 20 Observation -10-10 0 10 Observation
Maximum temperature - Winter 5 th The highest increase of maximum temperature 1.5-2.5 C
Summer 75 th 95 th The lowest increase of maximum temperature 0.5-1 C
SON JJA MAM DJF 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology 1-1.5 C Maximum Temperature Changes Around 1 C 5 th 25 th 50 th 75 th 95 th
Minimum temperature - Winter 5 th The highest increase of minimum temperature 3.5-4.5 C
SON JJA MAM DJF 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology 2.5-3 C Minimum temperature changes 2-2.5 C 5 th 25 th 50 th 75 th 95 th
10 Hot Days (Tmax>=30 C) 1-2 Days Around 3 Days 8 6 4 Number of Days 2 0 Szczecin Elblag Suwalki Poznan Torun Warszawa Lodz Lublin Wroclaw Krakow Rzeszow Up to 1 day Observation Multi-model Difference
50 40 Up to 2 days 5-7 days Summer Days (Tmax>=25 C) 10 days 30 20 10 0 Szczecin Elblag Suwalki Poznan Torun Warszawa Lodz Lublin Wroclaw Krakow Rzeszow Number of Days Observation Multi-model Difference
Tropical Nights (Tmin>20 C) Up to 1 day 1 0.5 0 Szczecin Elblag Suwalki Poznan Torun Warszawa Lodz Lublin Wroclaw Krakow Rzeszow Number of Days Observation Multi-model Difference
120 29 days less Frost Days 23-25 17-18 (Tmin<0 C) days less days less 80 40 0 Szczecin Elblag Suwalki Poznan Torun Warszawa Lodz Lublin Wroclaw Krakow Rzeszow Number of Days Observation Multi-model Difference
60 40 Over 6 days less 15 days less Ice Days (Tmax<0 C) 10-12 days less 20 0 Szczecin Elblag Suwalki Poznan Torun Warszawa Lodz Lublin Wroclaw Krakow Rzeszow Number of Days Observation Multi-model Difference
Maximum temperature increases more in autumn-winter season of about 1-1.5 C than in spring-summer around 1 C Higher warming of minimum than maximum temperature. In spring-summer season about 2-2.5 C and 1.5-2 C in autumnwinter season. Increase of hot and summer days from north-western to south eastern Poland Appearance of tropical nights in Poland The highest decrease of ice and frost days in north-eastern Poland