Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin Zeszyty Naukowe Akademia Morska w Szczecinie 2012, 29(101) pp. 182 187 2012, 29(101) s. 182 187 Navigational aspects of ship s voyage planning taking into account calculations of ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) Nawigacyjne aspekty planowania podróży statku uwzględniające obliczenia ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) Bernard Wiśniewski 1, Tadeusz Korwin-Piotrowski 2, Mirosław Wielgosz 1 Szymon Siódmak 1 1 Maritime University of Szczecin, Institute of Marine Navigation Akademia Morska w Szczecinie, Instytut Nawigacji Morskiej 70-500 Szczecin, ul. Wały Chrobrego 1 2, e-mail: b.wisniewski@am.szczecin.pl 2 Polish Steamship Company Polska Żegluga Morska 70-419 Szczecin, Plac Rodła 9 Key words: calculation of ETA, comparison of ships routes Abstract Since 2009 the Polish Steamship Company has operating on its ships SPOS, which main function is receiving weather information, presentations of this information in the form of synoptic and wave maps with forecasts up to 216 hours. The second function of the system is ability to determine the Great Circle, rhumb line and navigation composite routes and the so-called optimal and recommended by the system route (Optimum High and Wide). Because for each of these routes it is possible to generate in advance ship s position for one, two, three days and so on until the destination (usually the roadstead of the destination port), it is likely to compare the various routes. SPOS compares distances (NM), duration of voyages (days and hours), expected average speed, as well as date and time ship reaches the destination (ETA Estimated Time of Arrival). The reliability of these data is dependent on the ship s characteristics as a control object or ability to obtain the calm water speed (V o ) at full sea speed propeller revolutions, and reduction of vessel speed due to waves and wind. The third element affecting accuracy of a voyage plan in terms of initial estimations is the reliability of weather forecasts (waves, wind, currents, ice restrictions, fog, etc.). Słowa kluczowe: obliczenia ETA, porównanie tras statków Abstrakt Od 2009 roku Polska Żegluga Morska eksploatuje na swych statkach system SPOS (Ship Performance Optimisation System), którego główną funkcją jest pozyskiwanie informacji pogodowych, prezentacje tych informacji w postaci map synoptycznych i falowania z prognozami do 216 godzin. Drugą funkcją systemu jest możliwość wyznaczania ortodromy, loksodromy, tras żeglugi mieszanej (Composite) oraz tzw. trasy optymalnej i zalecanej przez system trasy (Optimum High and Wide). Na każdej z tych tras można wygenerować z systemu przewidywane pozycje statku za dobę, dwie doby, trzy, itd. aż do uzyskania punktu docelowego (zwykle jest to reda portu docelowego), możliwe jest także porównanie poszczególnych tras. Porównuje się drogi (Mm), czas realizacji podróży (dni i godziny), a tym samym przewidywaną średnią prędkość oraz datę i godzinę osiągnięcia punktu docelowego (ETA Estimated Time of Arrival). Wiarygodność tych danych jest zależna od cech statku jako obiektu sterowania, czyli zdolności uzyskiwania prędkości na spokojnej wodzie (V o ) przy eksploatacyjnych obrotach śruby oraz strat prędkości statku na fali i wietrze. Trzecim elementem wpływającym na dokładność w realizacji podróży względem początkowych przewidywań i planu podróży jest sprawdzalność warunków pogodowych (falowanie, wiatr, prądy, ograniczenia przez zjawiska lodowe, mgły, itp.). 182 Scientific Journals 29(101)
Wave height [m] Wind speed [knots] Navigational aspects of ship s voyage planning taking into account calculations of ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) ETA s calculation accuracy in SPOS In order to calculate more accurate vessel s arrival time at the destination port ETA, what is required from the ships masters by ship operators and charterers, using SPOS it is necessary to specify ship s speed in calm water (V o ) and ship s speed curve. In addition, ETA calculation accuracy depends on the verifiability of weather forecasts and it is determined by comparing the weather forecasts with actual conditions on a particular date, time and vessel s position. Designed vessel s speed in calm water is verified after launching during speed and manoeuverability tests and refines during its operation (such as hull fouling). The fleet of the Polish Steamship Company s bulk carriers consists of ships maintaining speed on calm water (V o ) in the limits of 13.0 14.2 knots when ship is fully loaded, and from 13.5 to 14.5 knots in ballast condition. The corresponding value is to be input into SPOS for the specific ship s type and voyage. The ship s speed reduction due to waves and wind is a complex problem that requires a sufficiently well-defined speed curve to be able to accurately predict the ETA. According to [1] for the purpose of optimizing the ship s sea route, speed curve should be presented in a form as simple as possible and general. Table 1. Default speed curves in SPOS (on the basis of [2]) Tabela 1. Domyślne charakterystyki prędkościowe w programie SPOS (na podstawie [2]) Wind Sea Wind direction from bow 0 045 090 135 180 0 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 10 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20 98% 99% 100% 100% 101% 30 95% 97% 98% 100% 101% 40 85% 90% 95% 100% 102% 50 80% 85% 90% 95% 102% Wave direction from bow 0 045 090 135 180 0 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 2 98% 98% 100% 100% 100% 4 90% 90% 95% 100% 100% 6 85% 85% 90% 90% 95% 8 65% 70% 80% 85% 90% 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Default SPOS s speed curve (Table 1) which is input as a matrix of data presenting the participation of wind speed and direction from bow, as well as wave height and direction from bow resulting in reduction of ship s speed. On the basis of series of analyzes carried out on different voyages made by Polish Steamship Company s ocean-going vessels, it proved not to be very accurate. It does not cover the typical operating parameters of dry bulk carriers and does not take into account the loading or ballast condition of the ship, as it is commonly known, that ship achieves different speeds depending on whether in loaded or ballast condition. Such a default speed curve inherent in SPOS does not allow to predict the exact time of arrival at ship s destination, so that the vessel s arrival time calculated on the basis of these characteristics significantly differents from the real-time. For that reason, authors started to analyze the ship s voyages using SPOS to determine more precise speed curves that may give similar prediction results to the real ETA. Research data The collected data contains a collection of real data from fifty-five voyages of ocean going Polish Steamship Company s bulk carriers both in loaded and ballast condition. Collected data includes information such as date and time of departure at the end of sea passage (ESP), ship departure and arrival draft, quantity and kind of cargo, calm sea speed (V o ), the daily fuel consumption for contracted speed main engine revolutions, and the basic design parameters of the ship. Besides, basic information about the current ship s voyage is implemented, the research material also includes precise navigation data such as: vessel positions, average course over ground (COG Course Over Ground), main engine revolutions, average speed over ground (SOG Speed Over Ground), daily fuel consumption, and the weather condition during the voyage containing the force and direction of wind, sea state and wave direction, and, if available, other weather observations, such as fog (reduced visibility), icing, etc. With such data it was possible to perform release test of ships voyages (composite route) and comparing their results with the real data. In this way, one could evaluate the accuracy of prediction the ship s ETA by SPOS using authors own speed curves. SPOS basis on knowledge of the geographical coordinates from the actual ship s voyage, its calm sea speed (V o ), current speed curve and daily fuel consumption performes calculations on the sodefined variables. Sample results are contained in these release test (Table 2). Then, authors compared the time differences in predicted ETA by the program to the Zeszyty Naukowe 29(101) 183
Bernard Wiśniewski, Tadeusz Korwin-Piotrowski, Mirosław Wielgosz, Szymon Siódmak Table 2. Analyzed routes and their results received based on test with SPOS compared with real data from individual voyage s stages Tabela 2. Analizowane trasy i otrzymane rezultaty w oparciu o testy w programie SPOS i ich porównanie z poszczególnymi etapami podróży No. Ship s name Loading condition Voyage s number and ports Speed curve SSP (start sea passage) Real data (dd-mm-yy hh:mm UTC) ESP (end of sea passage) Stage of voyage Time [h] V o [knots] Distance [Mm] V mean [knots] Consumed fuel [t] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 DELIA Ballast 122 I 342 14.5 13.0 BWB- 09-03-2010 23-03-2010 Durban II 282 03 16:45 22:30 4433.5 449.21 Rosario III 178 2 DIANA Loaded 118 I 470 13.5 12.9 27-02-2009 19-03-2009 Valparaiso V2L II 334 11:00 00:40 6081.3 607.1 Durban III 275 No. 1 2 ETA testing result[h] Time difference [%] Total Kind of route consumed I stage II stage [ t] II stage III stage [ t] III stage I stage II stage III stage fuel [t] 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Great Circle 337 60 271 164 165 414.7 Rhumb Line 331 60 265 164 162 406.5 3.22 6.03 8.99 Composite 331 60 265 164 162 406.8 Optimum High & Wide 326 60 261 164 161 400.7 Great Circle 441 136 314 195 264 569.3 Rhumb Line 445 136 328 195 270 588.2 2.77 1.80 1.45 Composite 457 136 328 195 271 590.6 Optimum High & Wide 439 136 312 195 260 566.9 actual vessel s arrival time at each voyage s stage, as well as total fuel consumption. The testing stages were chosen to include the route section not longer than 9 days of voyage (216 h) due to the availability of weather forecasts in the system. When the trip consisted of more than 9 days, SPOS had calculated ETA for 216 h on the basis of the available weather forecasts and then the rest of the way of the vessel s averaged climatic data basis. Additionally, other possible types of ship s routes were being compared with composite (real) route, assessing, on the basis of ETA and weather conditions and the route choice s rightness. All of analyzed routes were described and their results received based on test with SPOS compared with real data from individual voyage s stages (Table 2). The subject of this paper is to present the results of ocean-going bulk carriers voyages test release and evaluation of above mentioned results in terms of planning ETA s accuracy. Research results There were at least three parameters affecting accuracy of presented results, two of them depended on user working with the system. The first of them was charter speed (value of speed defined in charter party), or so called calm sea speed (V o ) which is usually imposed by ship owner s operating or chartering department, but also verified by master on the basis of his experience and knowledge about possible achieved speed. The second factor was the ship s speed curve developed and modified by authors on the basis of real voyages test data and received results. Figure 1 presents an example of implemented speed curve used during test for loaded bulk carrier. The third factor affecting the accuracy of received final results was the weather forecast, which was prepared, developed and sent to ship in digital file form. On the basis of defined speed curves, calm sea speed (V o ) and corresponding weather forecasts authors carried out tests of bulk carriers real voyages. For the purpose of this paper two specific voyages were selected. Findings present the results of implementing the real ship s route, track calculated by actual positions (which is called composite in SPOS) and other suggested and analyzed tracks, using for this purpose SPOS utilities and weather forecasts. 184 Scientific Journals 29(101)
Wave direction from bow [º] Wind direction from bow [º] Navigational aspects of ship s voyage planning taking into account calculations of ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 0º 45º 90º 135º 180º 0 10 20 30 40 50 Wind speed [knots] 0º 45º 90º 135º 180º 0 2 4 6 8 10 Wave height [meters] Fig. 1. Percentage speed reduction due to wind and sea for loaded bulk carrier (on the basis of [3]) Rys. 1. Procentowy udział strat prędkości statku masowego z ładunkiem od wiatru i fali (na podstawie [3]) The shortest of all the analyzed voyages lasted 202 hours when the longest 729 hours. Best results were obtained for the shortest routes due to the fact that the analysis of voyage time were based on data from current 9-days weather forecasts and analyses derived from SPOS (A + 216 hours) without using mean climatic data. The m/v Delia voyage from Durban / Republic of South Africa (start sea passage SSP on 09.03.2010 / 1645 UTC) to Rosario / Argentina (end of sea passage ESP at La Plata roads on 23.03.2010 / 2330 UTC) in ballast condition lasted 342 hours (Table 2, no. 1). The voyage s first stage was calculated at the current weather forecast up to 216 hours available in the system, when the remaining part of the route 126 hours was calculated by the program for average climatic data. Voyage time calculated by SPOS had to take 331 hours, when it really took 342 hours as reported from ship. This shows time difference of minus 3.22%, what should be read, that ship reached its destination 11 hours later than predicted by SPOS. This discrepancy may be due to the fact that part of the ship s voyage was calculated for the average weather data only (seasonal climatic data). At the second comparing stage the routes started after 60 h from the beginning of sea passage. The theoretical calculated time of passage to the destination port would take 265 hours, when in reality the ship completed passage after 282 hours. At this calculation s stage the difference in ETA was probably also influenced by seasonal average weather data used in SPOS. At the third stage, after 164 hours from departure time, the result obtained in SPOS was 162 h until the end of voyage, but in fact it lasted 178 h. It shows the difference of minus 8.99 % of time. This testing s stage confirms the inaccuracy of SPOS forecasts, because according to the ship log book the ship on 22.03.2010 encountered stormy weather with waves 4 6 meters high and wind 8 10 B, while SPOS forecasts indicated wind speed less than 30 knots and wave heights up to 3.5 m. Figure 2 and 3 present predicted ship s positions on different analyzed routes and weather impact on 22.03.2010 on the basis of weather forecasts dated 16.03.2010 and 22.03.2010, which were found inconsistent with the actual observations from the ship. Therefore, in this trip one can see greater differences in ship s arrival time to the destination port calculated by SPOS compared to the actual data. Authors conclude that these errors in predicting vessel s arrival time by SPOS were affected by the fact that the calculations in the first two stages were partly carried out on the basis of average seasonal weather conditions, and in the last stage the ETA s determination accuracy was influenced mainly by not very relevant SPOS weather forecasts. Weighted mean voyage time difference in 3 stages was found minus 5.49%, what means that ship arrived 5.49% of voyage time later than predicted. The second example (Table 2, no. 2) concerns the voyage m/v Diana ( Delia s sister ship) in loaded condition. The analysis of voyage which lasted 470 hours, in fact, has been showing at every analyzed stage a smaller percentage difference in voyage time. The range of time differences is kept within the limits of minus 2.77% to minus 1.45%. For this passage SPOS weather forecasts used for the calculations were close to the actual weather conditions. Statistical summary of all analyzed voyages made by ocean-going Polish Steamship Company s bulk carriers is contained in table 3. It should be Zeszyty Naukowe 29(101) 185
Bernard Wiśniewski, Tadeusz Korwin-Piotrowski, Mirosław Wielgosz, Szymon Siódmak Fig. 2. Predicted ship s positions on different analyzed routes and weather impact on 22.03.2010/1200 UTC on the basis of weather forecast on 16.03.2010/1200 UTC (on the basis of [2]) Rys. 2. Prognozowane pozycje statku na różnych trasach i wpływ warunków hydrometeorologicznych dnia 22.03. 2010 r. o godz. 12:00 UTC na podstawie prognozy pogody z dnia 16.03.2010 r. z godz. 12:00 UTC (na podstawie [2]) Fig. 3. Predicted ship s position and weather impact on 22.03.2010/900 UTC on the basis of weather forecast on 22.03.2010/1200 UTC (on the basis of [2]) Rys. 3. Prognozowana pozycja statku i wpływ warunków hydrometeorologicznych dnia 22.03.2010 r. o godz. 19:00 UTC na podstawie prognozy pogody z dnia 22.03.2010 r. z godz. 12:00 UTC (na podstawie [2]) noted that despite the increase in the mean value in % for the subsequent stages of voyage planning accuracy of ETA can be increased at each stage of the trip, due to the distance shortening to the destination port. The least accurate results comparing to the actual data were obtained in the third stage of the voyage testing. It can be assumed that mainly inaccurate weather forecast in relation to the actual weather had significantly influenced these results. Decisive influence on the final voyage result has the choice of route before going out to sea. Although, the analysis of both above mentioned voyages clearly shows, that every single voyage, at every stage has still to be reviewed to optimize the route in weather conditions aspects, because the daily analysis of changes in hydro-meteorological conditions is crucial for the success of the whole route planning and monitoring, and affects the economic performance of the company [4]. 186 Scientific Journals 29(101)
Navigational aspects of ship s voyage planning taking into account calculations of ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) Table 2. Mean, maximum and minimum values, standard deviation at specific voyage s stages (on the basis of [3]) Tabela 2. Średnia, odchylenie standardowe, wartość max i min na poszczególnych etapach podróży (na podstawie [3]) Mean [%] I stage II stage III stage 3.25 3.58 4.07 SD [%] 2.35 2.31 4.68 MAX [%] 7.33 6.21 5.24 MIN [%] 9.74 11.18 8.99 For the first testing stage (at the start of sea passage) the predicting accuracy of ETA obtained using SPOS was within 3% of passage time. For the shortest analyzed route, authors achieved accuracy of 6 hours, which should be considered good, especially for ocean passages. With increasing distances between the ports, the value of 3% seems to be not very satisfactory, but it must be taken into account that this accuracy is particularly affected by weather forecast, which now cannot be exactly predicted over ten days in advance. It should be also noted that speed curves used by authors in SPOS require further research and are still to be improved, what will undoubtedly appear in more accurate results of ETA calculations. Conclusions In the research process three different speed curves were exploited, which based on results of analyses that will still be elaborated. Differences between real weather conditions and forecasted conditions can considerably influence the accuracy of predicting ship s ETA, which are the reasons for those results. For tested shorter routes more similar results to real data were achieved than for longer routes. Using SPOS with its tools and own speed curves, one can determine more accurately the vessel s real speed and ETA at the destination port, than on the basis of average seasonal conditions and the expected vessel s average speed used by the master. References 1. WIŚNIEWSKI B.: Problemy wyboru drogi morskiej statku. Wydawnictwo Morskie, Gdańsk 1981. 2. Program SPOS Fleet Management, version: 7.0.0.1. Meteo Consult BV, The Netherlands, 2009. 3. Maritime University of Szczecin research data, the analyzes of real ships (equipped with SPOS) voyages and their evaluation. Report from scientifical research Zintegrowany system programowania tras statków na oceanach w aspekcie bezpieczeństwa statku, ładunku i ludzi, Grant No. N509495437/170/INM/2010, Szczecin 2012. 4. WIŚNIEWSKI B., SIÓDMAK S.: Wykorzystanie programu komputerowego SPOS w pogodowym planowaniu podróży statku. 14 th International Scientific and Technical Conference on Marine Traffic Engineering 12 14.10.2011, Świnoujście. Zeszyty Naukowe 29(101) 187