Poland Market Survey Empty Discarded Pack Collection August September 2011 Conducted on behalf: British American Tobacco Imperial Tobacco Group Japan Tobacco International Philip Morris International Prepared by: ALMARES Institute for Consulting and Market Research ul. Swietokrzyska 31/33a 00-049 Warszawa, Poland 1
Table of content: 1. Survey Objectives and Methodology Overview 2. Results 2
Survey Objectives Provide an indication on the incidence of non-domestic or illicit cigarettes Tax paid and non tax paid cigarettes from other countries Counterfeit cigarettes Gain information related to non-domestic or illicit cigarettes by Companies Regions and Cities Brand families Market variants 3
Survey Methodology Empty Discarded Pack (EDP) collection Random collection from streets and public bins Any brand and market variant Total 70 cities (40 largest cities and 30 smaller towns) Target main sample: 34,000 packs City sample quotas proportional to population Fieldwork conducted - 10.08-14.09.2011 Limitations Homes and workplaces are not covered No information on counterfeit incidence of non-participating companies products Caution The survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time 4
Sampling Plan Big cities: Wrocław (5,3%), Wałbrzych (1,0%), Legnica (0,9%), Bydgoszcz (2,9%), Toruń (1,7%), Włocławek (0,9%), Grudziądz (0,8%), Lublin (3,1%), Gorzów Wielkopolski (1,0%), Zielona Góra (1,0%), Łódź (6,7%), Kraków (5,2%), Tarnów (0,8%), Warszawa (15,6%), Radom (2,0%), Płock (1,1%), Opole (1,1%), Rzeszów (1,2%), Białystok (2,6%), Gdańsk (3,7%), Gdynia (2,0%), Katowice (3,0%), Gliwice (1,9%), Zabrze (1,8%), Częstochowa (2,3%), Sosnowiec (2,1%), Bytom (1,7%), Bielsko Biała (1,7%), Ruda Śląska (1,4%), Rybnik (1,3%), Tychy (1,2%), Dąbrowa Górnicza (1,2%), Chorzów (1,1%), Kielce (1,4%), Olsztyn (1,6%), Elbląg (1,1%), Poznań (4,5%), Kalisz (0,9%), Szczecin (3,3%), Koszalin (0,9%). Small towns: Bogatynia (0,2%), Złotoryja (0,1%), Krasnystaw (0,2%), Hrubieszów (0,2%), Radzyń Podlaski (0,1%), Międzyrzecz (0,2%), Radomsko (0,4%), Łask (0,2%), Sokołów Podlaski (0,2%), Kozienice (0,2%), Milanówek (0,1%), Strzelce Opolskie (0,2%), Krapkowice (0,2%), Namysłów (0,1%), Jasło (0,3%), Łańcut (0,1%), Przeworsk (0,1%), Nisko (0,1%), Ropczyce (0,1%), Sokółka (0,2%), Jędrzejów (0,1%), Staszów (0,1%), Braniewo (0,2%), Lidzbark Warmiński (0,1%), Olecko (0,1%), Chodzież (0,2%), Szamotuły (0,2%), Złotów (0,2%), Oborniki (0,1%), Gryfice (0,1%). 5
Sampling Plan Big cities: 6
All Packs Collected Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Non-domestic 15,4% Includes 1,9% of counterfeit of participating companies Domestic 84,6% N= 694,547 7
Non-domestic Packs Share by Market Variant National Sample MOLDOVA 5,4% GERMANY 2,1% OTHERS 4,0% Domestic 84,6% Non-domestic 15,4% UNSPECIFIED 7,1% BELARUS 35,4% List of "Others" Market Variant Share DUTY FREE 7,9% RUSSIA 13,1% N = 107,005 UKRAINE 25,2% C anary Islands 1,1% Kazakhstan 0,4% Belgium 0,2% C zech Republic 0,2% Italy 0,2% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0,1% Bulgaria 0,1% C roatia 0,1% Denmark 0,1% Hungary 0,1% Lithuania 0,1% Montenegro 0,1% Netherlands 0,1% Slovakia 0,1% Spain 0,1% UK 0,1% USA 0,1% others (less than 0,1%) 0,7% Total 4,0% 8
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by Nielsen Region Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 15.4% 7,4% 43,0% 3,4 % 20,4%* Warsaw 22,9%* *Please notice that Central region not includes value for Warsaw. Warsaw is treated as a separate region 3,7% 12,4% 12,1% 9
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by City Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 15.4% Largest 40 cities Szczecin (3,5%) Gorzów Wielkopolski (16,1%) Zielona Góra (2,6%) Legnica (5,9%) Koszalin (3,1%) Wałbrzych (4,5%) Poznań (1,1%) Wrocław (3,6%) Gdynia (4,8%) Gdańsk (5,7%) Bydgoszcz (10,6%) Opole (1,3%) Toruń (8,4%) Kalisz (1,6%) Ruda Śląska (20,5%) Elbląg (44,3%) Grudziądz (13,7%) Włocławek (20,3%) Bielsko Biała (3,9%) Łódź (18,7%) Częstochowa (21,2%) Płock (32,3%) Zabrze (8,8%) Rybnik Gliwice (5,9%) Dąbrowa Górnicza (12,1%) (12,4%) Katowice (9,7%) Sosnowiec Chorzow (19,6%) Bytom (9,8%) Tychy (11,8%) (3,6%) Kraków (8,2%) Olsztyn (38,6%) Warszawa (22,9%) Radom (22,3%) Kielce (4,6%) Tarnów (11,5%) Rzeszów (35,7%) Białystok (42,4%) Lublin (38,4%) Small Towns Region City Incidence East Radzyń Podlaski 94.5% Hrubieszów 89.4% Olecko 84.8% Lidzbark Warmiński 50.9% Sokółka 50.0% Braniewo 39.3% Krasnystaw 37.3% South-East Przeworsk 42.1% Ropczyce 28.2% Łańcut 28.2% Jasło 14.9% Nisko 14.8% Jędrzejów 4.3% Staszów 3.3% Central Kozienice 18.1% Radomsko 16.9% Łask 14.3% Sokołów Podlaski 13.3% Milanówek 8.1% West Międzyrzecz 11.3% Oborniki 0.7% Chodzież 0.6% Szamotuły 0.3% Złotów 0.3% South-West Krapkowice 6.3% Strzelce Opolskie 4.8% Złotoryja 3.6% Bogatynia 2.9% Namysłów 2.6% North Gryfice 4.0% 10
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Comparison of Results in Large Cities Vs. Results in Smaller Towns 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 84,6% 85,0% 77,4% Domestic 40,0% Non-domestic 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 15,4% 15,0% 22,6% 0,0% 70 cities (40 largest cities + 30 smaller towns) Largest 40 cities 95,3% out of total 100% sample 30 smaller towns 4,7% out of total 100% sample 11