Development of a species index and optimization of production technology for selected energy crops

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1 Lessach, Austria, September 2011 ICOLE 11 Development of a species index and optimization of production technology for selected energy crops Anna Gotfryd, Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz Institute of Computing Science Poznan University of Technology The project titled "Development of a species index and optimization of production technology of selected energy crops", is financed by the European Regional Development Fund under the Operational Programme Innovative Economy

2 Consortium Agri-Centre of Innovative Technologies Poznan University of Technology Poznan University of Life Sciences Lodz University of Technology Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation in Pulawy 2

3 Plan of presentation 1. World energy situation and the need to seek renewable energy sources 2. Project modules 3. BIOPOWER application 3

4 Factors determining the energy balance of the world by 2050 Trends and dynamic of changes in energy use Share of energy resources within the overall energy consumption Climate change Depletion of fossil fuels The increase in energy demand Social and demographic changes The concept of a wider use of RES Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 4

5 Changes in energy consumption in the U.S. (in %) Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 5

6 The structure of energy sources currently used in the world Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 6

7 Structure of fuel consumption in the European Union Source : Grochal 2006 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 7

8 Forcasts for peak oil extraction source: Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 8

9 World energy demand Spurce: EIA 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 9

10 Relationships between socio-economic phenomena and energy consumption Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 10

11 PJ Source: IEO 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 11

12 The increase in the renewable energy sector by 2020 in PJ Source: IEO 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 12

13 Relationships between the civilisational development and the available energy Source: Kozubowski 2010 Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 13

14 Agricultural land area per one inhabitant in Europe (ha) Source: GUS Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 14

15 Prognosis of Polish agriculture production capacity of biomass used for energy production for the purposes of fuel substitution by 2020 Identification of RES in Poland and their potential: Biomass energetics Geothermal energetics Hydroenergetics Wind energetics Solar energetics Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 15

16 Biomass -Sources of biomass -Perspective section of biomass in renewable energy production in Poland -The balance of biomass energy in Poland, recapitulating the potential demand and possible supply -The potential of biomass production from agriculture production of biofuels from agricultural biomass biogas production from agricultural biomass area intended for the production of agricultural raw materials for use as liquid biofuels and biogas -The share of biomass for use as biogas and biofuels in the total production of biomass in Poland by Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 16

17 Main study results to be obtained analyse of the main trends of development in the energy sector and the importance of renewable energy sources (including, in particular liquid biofuels and biogas) those issues were identified: 1 / global dynamics of changes in energy use; 2 / the contribution of different energy sources in overall energy balance in the world, in Europe and in Poland, 3 / biomass energy balance in Poland summarizing potential demand and possible supply. 4 / biomass share in total production of renewable energy in Poland 5 / biomass for use as biogas and biofuels in the total biomass production in Poland 6 / acreage intended for the production of raw materials intended for liquid biofuels and biogas, 7 / capabilities and limitations of the production of biofuels and biogas out of plants taken into consideration in the project. by Witold Wielicki, Rafał Baum 17

18 Key research problems: Module I: Optimization of quality parameters of cultivars/strains of cereals, sugar beets, maize and sorghum from the point of view of production of biofuel and biogas. sugar beets cereals maize by Dariusz Majchrzycki 18

19 Module II: Optimization of cultivation methods for cereals, sugar beets, maize, sorghum, Virginia fanpetals and reed Canary-grass to be used for biofuel and biogas in terms of variation in soil and climatic conditions. Running of trials for selected cultivars of: cereals, sugar beets, maize, sorghum, Virginia fanpetals and reed Canary-grass in order to develop technologies optimal for the production of high-quality raw material for the production of energy in the liquid and gas forms in terms of variation in soil and climatic conditions. by Karol Wajszczuk 19

20 Analysis Lokalizacja Localisation Mochełek Jelcz- Laskowice Osiny Grabów Odmiana/ Variety Vitras Bosman Plon zielonej masy(t/ha) Yield in green mass (t/ha) Plon kiszonki (t/ha) Yield in silage (t/ha) Wartość produkcji, w tym: The value of production, including: wartość plonu (cena 100 zł/t kiszonki) yield value (price 100 zł / t silage) płatności obszarowe (JPO + UPO) payment for area 44,3 95,8 69,1 40,4 33,2 71,9 51,8 30,

21 Lokalizacja Localisation Analysis Mochełek Jelcz- Laskowice Osiny Odmiana/ Variety Vitras Bosman Koszty bezpośrednie, w tym: Direct costs, including: nawozy (NPK-120, 60, 80) fertilizers środki ochrony roślin pesticides Koszty pośrednie, w tym: Indirect costs, including: koszt mechanizacji cost of mechanization koszt pracy labor cost Koszty ogółem zł/ha Total costs zł /ha Koszty ogółem zł/t kiszonki Total costs zł /t silage Koszty produkcji/ Production costs (zł/ha) Grabów

22 Analysis Lokalizacja Localisation Mochełek Jelcz- Laskowice Osiny Grabów Odmiana/ Variety Vitras Bosman Wynik finansowy/ Financial result (zł/ha) Zysk/Strata bez płatności obszarowych Profit / Loss without payments for area Zysk/Strata z płatnościami obszarowymi Profit / Loss with payments for area

23 Module III : Determination of prospects for cultivation of energy crops in Poland and determination of profitability of production and energy balance for investigated crops and proposed technologies. Determination of the macroeconomic context connected with production of energy crops. Identification of outlays and volume of production for analyzed technologies based on field trials established throughout the country. Economic analysis of proposed model production technologies of tested crops under specific soil and climatic conditions. Development of a computer programme to determine optimal production technology of tested crops, taking into consideration climatic and soil conditions, ecological and economic aspects. by Karol Wajszczuk 23

24 Development of software for decision support and optimization technology Domain 1 - Gathering and processing the input data Domain 2 - Assessment of the environmental friendliness of technology Domain 3 - Evaluation of the economic aspect 24 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

25 Spiral model of software development 25 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

26 Application Diagram BioPower 26 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

27 27 by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

28 Rejestracja użytkownika by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

29 Logowanie by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

30 Dane ogólne by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

31 Maszyny by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

32 Budynki by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

33 Pola by Grzegorz Pawlak, Wojciech Wojciechowicz

34 Analytical module for farmer DSS 1. Variety of data objects and representation 2. Costs calculations dependencies 3. Learning system reference data 4. Historical data management system 34

35 Thank you for your attention Grzegorz Pawlak 35