Poland Market Survey Report Empty Discarded Pack Collection August/September 2015 Conducted on behalf: British American Tobacco Imperial Tobacco Group Japan Tobacco International Philip Morris International Prepared by: ALMARES Institute for Consulting and Market Research ul. Swietokrzyska 31/33a 00-049 Warszawa, Poland 1
Survey Methodology Empty Discarded Pack (EDP) collection Random collection from streets and public bins Any brand and market variant Total 70 cities (40 largest cities and 30 smaller towns) Target main sample: 17,000 packs City sample quotas proportional to population Fieldwork conducted 11.08 29.08.2015 Limitations Homes and workplaces are not covered No information on counterfeit incidence of non- products Caution The survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time 3
Sampling Plan Russia Lithuania Gdynia Gdansk Braniewo Lidzbark Warminski Olecko Suwalki Gryfice Koszalin Pomorskie Tczew Starogard Gdanski Elblag Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Olsztyn Elk Podlaskie Sokolka Germany Zachodniopomorskie Szczecin Stargard Szczecinski Gorzow Wielkopolski Miedzyrzecz Lubuskie Wielkopolskie Czech Republic Bialystok Grudziadz Lomza Ostroleka Zlotow Stupsk Zielona Gora Leszno Kalisz Ostrow Wielkopolski Glogow Lubin Legnica Zlotoryja Pila Chodziez Oborniki Szamotuly Poznan Bogatynia Jelenia Gora Swidnica Walbrzych Dolnoslaskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Torun Bydgoszcz Inowroclaw Wloclawek Plock Gniezno Kutno Konin Wroclaw Namyslow Opolskie Slaskie Lodzkie Poland Zgierz Lodz Pabianice Lask Tomaszow Mazowiecki Opole Zawiercie Strzelce Opolskie Tarnowskie Gory Krapkowice Piekary Slaskie Kedzierzyn-Kozle Gliwice Bytom Dabrowa Gornicza Siemianowice Zabrze Bedzin Chorzow Slaskie Sosnowiec Ruda Swietochlowice Slaska Katowice Tychy Myslowice Jaworzno Krakow Raciborz Rybnik Zory Wodzislaw Slaski Mazowieckie Sokolow Podlaski Legionowo Siedlce Biala Podlaska Warszawa Pruszkow Milanowek Piotrkow Trybunalski Belchatow Skarzysko-Kamienna Starachowice Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Radomsko Swietokrzy skie Kielce Stalowa Wola Czestochowa Jedrzejow Staszow Nisko Tarnobrzeg Malopolskie Bielsko-Biala Nowy Sacz Lubelskie Kozienice Pulawy Radom Lublin Chelm Mielec Lancut Przeworsk Ropczyce Tarnow Rzeszow Przemysl Jaslo Radzyn Podlaski Podkarpackie Belarus Krasnystaw Hrubieszow Zamosc Ukraine Slovakia 4
All Packs Collected Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Non-domestic 17.8% Includes 2,6% of Domestic 82.2% Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks 8
All Packs Collected Non-domestic Packs Incidence Evolution 100% Includes 1,7% of Includes 2,6% of Includes 2,7% of Includes 2,2% of Includes 2,2% of Includes 2,5% of Includes 1,7% of Includes 2,6% of 90% 15.1% 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 84.9% 86.0% 85.5% 84.6% 83.0% 82.7% 81.0% 82.2% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 N= 346,270 N= 346,044 Figures are given in weighted sticks. N= 345,161 N= 344,876 N= 344,256 N= 343,885 N= 343,132 Domestic Packs Non-domestic Packs N= 343,800 9
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by Nielsen Region Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 17.8% Q.3. 2015 Q.3. 2013 2,8% 6,0% 7,0% Warsaw 28,0%* 17,6% 21,5%* 35,2% 20,4% Q.2. 2015 Warsaw 32.7% Central 19.6% East 49.1% North 5.9% South 14.1% South-East 17.3% South-West 3.9% West 10.2% Q.2. 2013 Warsaw 24.2% Central 21.6% East 45.4% North 4.4% South 10.2% South-East 10.1% South-West 7.8% West 2.4% Q.4. 2013 Warsaw 21.3% Central 21.8% East 28.1% North 7.4% South 11.7% South-East 18.7% South-West 5.3% West 2.6% Q.3. 2014 Warsaw 21.9% Central 26.3% East 46.7% North 7.7% South 13.0% South-East 12.7% South-West 6.2% West 3.9% Warsaw 20.3% Central 19.9% East 36.5% North 8.0% South 10.1% South-East 12.1% South-West 5.2% West 2.3% Q.2. 2014 Warsaw 21.6% Central 22.1% East 43.9% North 6.4% South 9.4% South-East 15.3% South-West 6.3% West 1.2% Q.4. 2014 Warsaw 26.9% Central 24.9% East 39.8% North 6.1% South 13.0% South-East 16.7% South-West 10.0% West 2.8% 18 All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by City Largest 40 cities Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 17.8% Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks Szczecin (3,6%) Gorzów Wielkopolski (8,2%) Zielona Góra (2,1%) Legnica (0,0%) Koszalin (0,0%) Wałbrzych (6,0%) Poznań (2,5%) Wrocław (7,0%) Gdynia (0,4%) Gdańsk (0,8%) Bydgoszcz (24,6%) Opole (5,2%) Toruń (6,2%) Kalisz (0,0%) Ruda Śląska (6,5%) Elbląg (47,7%) Grudziądz (10,0%) Włocławek (9,9%) Bielsko Biała (12,8%) Łódź (18,0%) Częstochowa (42,2%) Zabrze (16,1%) Rybnik Gliwice (10,0%) (11,4%) Katowice (16,8%) Sosnowiec Chorzow (22,5%) Bytom (19,8%) Tychy (6,4%) (13,9%) Płock (29,3%) Dąbrowa Górnicza (23,1%) Kraków (19,6%) Olsztyn (28,2%) Warszawa (28,0%) Radom (29,3%) Kielce (7,1%) Tarnów (17,2%) Rzeszów (35,5%) Białystok (36,7%) Lublin (27,3%) Small Towns REGION CITY INCIDENCE East Sokółka 59,9% Braniewo 72,7% Lidzbark Warmiński 75,2% Krasnystaw 37,2% Hrubieszów 34,4% Olecko 40,6% Radzyń Podlaski 40,6% South-East Nisko 34,3% Jasło 27,2% Ropczyce 22,0% Przeworsk 30,0% Łańcut 48,1% Jędrzejów 12,0% Staszów 6,6% Central Radomsko 18,4% Łask 13,8% Milanówek 27,7% Kozienice 28,5% Sokołów Podlaski 16,4% West Międzyrzecz 6,9% Złotów 0,7% Oborniki 0,0% Szamotuły 0,0% Chodzież 0,0% South-West Złotoryja 4,0% Strzelce Opolskie 6,4% Krapkowice 10,0% Bogatynia 6,0% Namysłów 4,6% North Gryfice 8,0% 19
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Comparison of Results in Large Cities Vs. Results in Smaller Towns 100.0% Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 17.8% 17.5% 23.6% 50.0% Non-domestic 40.0% 82.2% 82.5% 76.4% Domestic 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 70 cities (40 largest cities + 30 smaller towns) Largest 40 cities 95,2% out of total 100% sample 30 smaller towns 4,8% out of total 100% sample N= 343,800 N= 327,268 N= 16,532 20
Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Belchat ow Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Siemianowice Slaskie Chorzow Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice M yslowice Jawor zno Tychy Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow ALMARES Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Pomorskie Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Zachodniopomorskie 0.6% 40.1% Podlaskie 38.1% 3.0% Kujawsko-Pomorskie Belarus 15.7% Mazowieckie 28.1% Germany Lubuskie 5.1% Wielkopolskie 1.9% Lodzkie 28.0% Poland 18.0% Warsaw Lubelskie 28.7% >30% >15% <30% Czech Republic Dolnoslaskie 6.0% Opolskie 5.8% Slaskie 17.6% Swietokrzy skie Malopolskie 19.3% 7.4% Podkarpackie 34.1% Ukraine >2% <15% < 2% Slovakia (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks 21
Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 WARSAW 24.2% 20.3% 21.3% 21.6% 21.9% 26.9% 32.7% 28.0% Voivodships WARMINSKO-MAZURSKIE 59.0% 36.0% 33.0% 61.6% 59.4% 43.7% 70.3% 40.1% PODLASKIE 49.4% 44.2% 30.3% 41.7% 44.2% 43.0% 43.3% 38.1% PODKARPACKIE 21.5% 19.9% 40.3% 29.8% 27.2% 25.6% 29.2% 34.1% LUBELSKIE 30.5% 31.1% 22.3% 30.3% 37.5% 33.8% 35.2% 28.7% MAZOWIECKIE 23.2% 20.1% 21.6% 21.2% 23.8% 26.3% 30.4% 28.1% MALOPOLSKIE 8.7% 11.7% 14.2% 13.7% 8.2% 15.9% 15.6% 19.3% LODZKIE 22.8% 20.0% 21.2% 23.1% 23.5% 25.3% 19.1% 18.0% SLASKIE 10.2% 10.1% 11.7% 9.4% 13.0% 13.0% 14.1% 17.6% KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE 8.5% 15.8% 9.9% 12.3% 14.6% 10.2% 11.6% 15.7% SWIETOKRZYSKIE 1.7% 4.2% 9.8% 3.9% 11.7% 9.1% 9.2% 7.4% DOLNOSLASKIE 7.9% 5.6% 5.9% 7.1% 6.6% 10.0% 3.7% 6.0% OPOLSKIE 7.2% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 4.4% 10.2% 4.6% 5.8% LUBUSKIE 4.5% 2.9% 4.3% 2.5% 7.6% 4.6% 8.3% 5.1% ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE 4.0% 4.4% 7.0% 6.7% 6.6% 5.8% 5.3% 3.0% WIELKOPOLSKIE 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 0.7% 2.7% 2.1% 10.8% 1.9% POMORSKIE 0.3% 2.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% Total Poland 15.1% 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw 22
Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw >30% >15% <30% >2% <15% < 2% 23
Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Siemianowice Slaskie Chorzow Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice Belchat ow M yslowice Jawor zno Tychy Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow non-domestic incidence 17,8% includes 2.6% of counterfeit ALMARES CF Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Pomorskie Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Zachodniopomorskie 0.0% 0.9% Podlaskie 0.0% Kujawsko-Pomorskie 0.4% Belarus 3.5% Mazowieckie Germany Lubuskie 1.2% Wielkopolskie 0.1% Dolnoslaskie 3.7% Lodzkie Poland 3.4% Swietokrzy skie Lubelskie 2.5% 0.7% Opolskie Slaskie 0.6% >30% >15% <30% Czech Republic 0.9% 4.3% Malopolskie 5.0% Podkarpackie 0.7% Ukraine >2% <15% < 2% Slovakia (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw Q.3. 2015 N= 343,800 weighted sticks 24