Poland Market Survey Report Empty Discarded Pack Collection April 2016 Conducted on behalf: British American Tobacco Imperial Tobacco Group Japan Tobacco International Philip Morris International Prepared by: ALMARES Institute for Consulting and Market Research ul. Swietokrzyska 31/33a 00-049 Warszawa, Poland 1
Survey Methodology Empty Discarded Pack (EDP) collection Random collection from streets and public bins Any brand and market variant Total 70 cities (40 largest cities and 30 smaller towns) Target main sample: 17,000 packs City sample quotas proportional to population Fieldwork conducted 4. 20.04.2016 Limitations Homes and workplaces are not covered No information on counterfeit incidence of non- products Caution The survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time 3
Sampling Plan Russia Lithuania Gdynia Gdansk Braniewo Lidzbark Warminski Olecko Suwalki Gryfice Koszalin Pomorskie Tczew Starogard Gdanski Elblag Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Olsztyn Elk Podlaskie Sokolka Germany Zachodniopomorskie Szczecin Stargard Szczecinski Gorzow Wielkopolski Miedzyrzecz Lubuskie Wielkopolskie Czech Republic Bialystok Grudziadz Lomza Ostroleka Zlotow Stupsk Zielona Gora Leszno Kalisz Ostrow Wielkopolski Glogow Lubin Legnica Zlotoryja Pila Chodziez Oborniki Szamotuly Poznan Bogatynia Jelenia Gora Swidnica Walbrzych Dolnoslaskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Torun Bydgoszcz Inowroclaw Wloclawek Plock Gniezno Kutno Konin Wroclaw Namyslow Opolskie Slaskie Lodzkie Poland Zgierz Lodz Pabianice Lask Tomaszow Mazowiecki Opole Zawiercie Strzelce Opolskie Tarnowskie Gory Krapkowice Piekary Slaskie Kedzierzyn-Kozle Gliwice Bytom Dabrowa Gornicza Siemianowice Zabrze Bedzin Chorzow Slaskie Sosnowiec Ruda Swietochlowice Slaska Katowice Tychy Myslowice Jaworzno Krakow Raciborz Rybnik Zory Wodzislaw Slaski Mazowieckie Sokolow Podlaski Legionowo Siedlce Biala Podlaska Warszawa Pruszkow Milanowek Piotrkow Trybunalski Belchatow Skarzysko-Kamienna Starachowice Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Radomsko Swietokrzy skie Kielce Stalowa Wola Czestochowa Jedrzejow Staszow Nisko Tarnobrzeg Malopolskie Bielsko-Biala Nowy Sacz Lubelskie Kozienice Pulawy Radom Lublin Chelm Mielec Lancut Przeworsk Ropczyce Tarnow Rzeszow Przemysl Jaslo Radzyn Podlaski Podkarpackie Belarus Krasnystaw Hrubieszow Zamosc Ukraine Slovakia 4
All Packs Collected Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Non-Domestic 17.2% Includes 1,6% of Domestic 82.8% N= 342,488 weighted sticks 8
All Packs Collected Non-domestic Packs Incidence Evolution 100% Includes 2,6% of Includes 2,7% of Includes 2,2% of Includes 2,2% of Includes 2,5% of Includes 1,7% of Includes 2,6% of Includes 2,5% of Includes 1,6% of 90% 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% 18.2% 17.2% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 86.0% 85.5% 84.6% 83.0% 82.7% 81.0% 82.2% 81.8% 82.8% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 N= 346,044 N= 345,161 N= 344,876 Figures are given in weighted sticks. N= 344,256 Domestic Packs N= 343,885 N= 343,132 Non-domestic Packs N= 343,800 N= 343,423 N= 342,488 9
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by Nielsen Region Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 17.2% 6,6% 44,3% Q.3. 2013 Warsaw 20.3% Central 19.9% East 36.5% North 8.0% South 10.1% South-East 12.1% South-West 5.2% West 2.3% Q.4. 2013 Warsaw 21.3% Central 21.8% East 28.1% North 7.4% South 11.7% South-East 18.7% South-West 5.3% West 2.6% 1,9% 6,1% Warsaw 26,8%* 21,2%* Q.2. 2014 Warsaw 21.6% Central 22.1% East 43.9% North 6.4% South 9.4% South-East 15.3% South-West 6.3% West 1.2% Q.3. 2014 Warsaw 21.9% Central 26.3% East 46.7% North 7.7% South 13.0% South-East 12.7% South-West 6.2% West 3.9% 16,3% Q.3. 2015 Warsaw 28.0% Central 21.5% East 35.2% North 7.0% South 17.6% South-East 20.4% South-West 6.0% West 2.8% 11,3% Q.4. 2015 Warsaw 27.8% Central 23.9% East 43.3% North 7.0% South 16.1% South-East 16.0% South-West 7.4% West 2.4% Q.4. 2014 Warsaw 26.9% Central 24.9% East 39.8% North 6.1% South 13.0% South-East 16.7% South-West 10.0% West 2.8% Q.2. 2015 Warsaw 32.7% Central 19.6% East 49.1% North 5.9% South 14.1% South-East 17.3% South-West 3.9% West 10.2% 18 All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by City Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 17.2% Largest 40 cities N= 342,488 weighted sticks Szczecin (12,1%) Gorzów Wielkopolski (5,3%) Zielona Góra (9,3%) Legnica (6,6%) Koszalin (6,6%) Wałbrzych (4,6%) Poznań (0,0%) Wrocław (6,2%) Gdynia (2,5%) Gdańsk (2,4%) Bydgoszcz (11,2%) Opole (6,7%) Toruń (1,8%) Kalisz (0,0%) Włocławek (9,2%) Łódź (21,3%) Częstochowa (22,6%) Zabrze (9,9%) Rybnik Gliwice (11,9%) (11,8%) Katowice (11,9%) Sosnowiec Chorzow (12,2%) Bytom (14,3%) Tychy (19,2%) (16,0%) Ruda Śląska (25,8%) Elbląg (61,7%) Grudziądz (4,1%) Bielsko Biała (17,4%) Płock (21,2%) Dąbrowa Górnicza (28,0%) Kraków (4,5%) Olsztyn (51,9%) Warszawa (26,8%) Tarnów (6,6%) Radom (21,5%) Kielce (11,5%) Rzeszów (31,9%) Białystok (35,0%) Lublin (36,9%) Small Towns REGION CITY INCIDENCE East Sokółka 56,7% Braniewo 73,1% Lidzbark Warmiński 81,8% Krasnystaw 41,3% Hrubieszów 58,0% Olecko 60,3% Radzyń Podlaski 47,3% South-East Nisko 26,6% Jasło 28,0% Ropczyce 30,6% Przeworsk 27,3% Łańcut 33,3% Jędrzejów 11,3% Staszów 16,5% Central Radomsko 20,6% Łask 19,1% Milanówek 22,7% Kozienice 22,4% Sokołów Podlaski 13,1% West Międzyrzecz 7,3% Złotów 0,0% Oborniki 0,0% Szamotuły 0,0% Chodzież 0,0% South-West Złotoryja 7,4% Strzelce Opolskie 9,6% Krapkowice 0,0% Bogatynia 1,3% Namysłów 10,2% North Gryfice 10,0% 19
Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Comparison of Results in Large Cities Vs. Results in Smaller Towns 100.0% N= 342,488 weighted sticks 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 17.2% 16.8% 25.3% 50.0% Non-domestic 40.0% 82.8% 83.2% 74.7% Domestic 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 70 cities (40 largest cities + 30 smaller towns) Largest 40 cities 95,2% out of total 100% sample 30 smaller towns 4,8% out of total 100% sample N= 342,488 N= 325,939 N= 16,5549 20
Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Belchat ow Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Siemianowice Slaskie Chorzow Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice M yslowice Jawor zno Tychy Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow ALMARES Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Pomorskie Warmiòsko-Mazurskie 2.4% 58.3% Podlaskie Zachodniopomorskie 36.3% 10.9% Kujawsko-Pomorskie Belarus 7.5% Mazowieckie 25.7% Germany Lubuskie 7.3% Wielkopolskie 0.0% Lodzkie 26.8% Poland 21.2% Warsaw Lubelskie 38.5% >30% >15% <30% Czech Republic Dolnoslaskie 6.0% Opolskie 6.7% Slaskie 16.3% Swietokrzy skie Malopolskie 4.7% 11.8% Podkarpackie 30.9% Ukraine >2% <15% < 2% Slovakia (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw N= 342,488 weighted sticks 21
Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship N= 342,488 weighted sticks Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 WARSAW 20.3% 21.3% 21.6% 21.9% 26.9% 32.7% 28.0% 27.8% 26.8% Voivodships WARMINSKO-MAZURSKIE 36.0% 33.0% 61.6% 59.4% 43.7% 70.3% 40.1% 63.6% 58.3% LUBELSKIE 31.1% 22.3% 30.3% 37.5% 33.8% 35.2% 28.7% 30.8% 38.5% PODLASKIE 44.2% 30.3% 41.7% 44.2% 43.0% 43.3% 38.1% 36.8% 36.3% PODKARPACKIE 19.9% 40.3% 29.8% 27.2% 25.6% 29.2% 34.1% 33.8% 30.9% MAZOWIECKIE 20.1% 21.6% 21.2% 23.8% 26.3% 30.4% 28.1% 27.6% 25.7% LODZKIE 20.0% 21.2% 23.1% 23.5% 25.3% 19.1% 18.0% 22.4% 21.2% SLASKIE 10.1% 11.7% 9.4% 13.0% 13.0% 14.1% 17.6% 16.1% 16.3% SWIETOKRZYSKIE 4.2% 9.8% 3.9% 11.7% 9.1% 9.2% 7.4% 6.0% 11.8% ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE 4.4% 7.0% 6.7% 6.6% 5.8% 5.3% 3.0% 7.9% 10.9% KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE 15.8% 9.9% 12.3% 14.6% 10.2% 11.6% 15.7% 12.4% 7.5% LUBUSKIE 2.9% 4.3% 2.5% 7.6% 4.6% 8.3% 5.1% 6.9% 7.3% OPOLSKIE 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 4.4% 10.2% 4.6% 5.8% 6.9% 6.7% DOLNOSLASKIE 5.6% 5.9% 7.1% 6.6% 10.0% 3.7% 6.0% 7.5% 6.0% MALOPOLSKIE 11.7% 14.2% 13.7% 8.2% 15.9% 15.6% 19.3% 12.8% 4.7% POMORSKIE 2.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 2.4% WIELKOPOLSKIE 2.1% 1.9% 0.7% 2.7% 2.1% 10.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% Total Poland 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% 18.2% 17.2% (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw 22
Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship N= 342,488 weighted sticks (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw >30% >15% <30% >2% <15% < 2% 23
Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Siemianowice Slaskie Chorzow Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice Belchat ow M yslowice Jawor zno Tychy Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow non-domestic incidence 17,2% includes 1.6% of counterfeit ALMARES CF Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Pomorskie Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Zachodniopomorskie 0.1% 1.3% Podlaskie 0.6% Kujawsko-Pomorskie 0.0% Belarus 0.4% Mazowieckie Germany Lubuskie 1.3% Wielkopolskie 0.0% Dolnoslaskie 4.8% Lodzkie Poland 1.9% Swietokrzy skie Lubelskie 0.9% 0.0% Opolskie Slaskie 0.4% >30% >15% <30% Czech Republic 0.0% 1.6% Malopolskie 0.5% Podkarpackie 0.5% Ukraine >2% <15% < 2% Slovakia (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw N= 342,488 weighted sticks 24