Poland Market Survey Report Empty Discarded Pack Collection October/November 2015

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1 Poland Market Survey Report Empty Discarded Pack Collection October/November 2015 Conducted on behalf: British American Tobacco Imperial Tobacco Group Japan Tobacco International Philip Morris International Prepared by: ALMARES Institute for Consulting and Market Research ul. Swietokrzyska 31/33a Warszawa, Poland 1

2 Survey Methodology Empty Discarded Pack (EDP) collection Random collection from streets and public bins Any brand and market variant Total 70 cities (40 largest cities and 30 smaller towns) Target main sample: 17,000 packs City sample quotas proportional to population Fieldwork conducted Limitations Homes and workplaces are not covered No information on counterfeit incidence of non- products Caution The survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time 3

3 Sampling Plan Russia Lithuania Gdynia Gdansk Braniewo Lidzbark Warminski Olecko Suwalki Gryfice Koszalin Pomorskie Tczew Starogard Gdanski Elblag Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Olsztyn Elk Podlaskie Sokolka Germany Zachodniopomorskie Szczecin Stargard Szczecinski Gorzow Wielkopolski Miedzyrzecz Lubuskie Wielkopolskie Czech Republic Bialystok Grudziadz Lomza Ostroleka Zlotow Stupsk Zielona Gora Leszno Kalisz Ostrow Wielkopolski Glogow Lubin Legnica Zlotoryja Pila Chodziez Oborniki Szamotuly Poznan Bogatynia Jelenia Gora Swidnica Walbrzych Dolnoslaskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Torun Bydgoszcz Inowroclaw Wloclawek Plock Gniezno Kutno Konin Wroclaw Namyslow Opolskie Slaskie Lodzkie Poland Zgierz Lodz Pabianice Lask Tomaszow Mazowiecki Opole Zawiercie Strzelce Opolskie Tarnowskie Gory Krapkowice Piekary Slaskie Kedzierzyn-Kozle Gliwice Bytom Dabrowa Gornicza Siemianowice Zabrze Bedzin Chorzow Slaskie Sosnowiec Ruda Swietochlowice Slaska Katowice Tychy Myslowice Jaworzno Krakow Raciborz Rybnik Zory Wodzislaw Slaski Mazowieckie Sokolow Podlaski Legionowo Siedlce Biala Podlaska Warszawa Pruszkow Milanowek Piotrkow Trybunalski Belchatow Skarzysko-Kamienna Starachowice Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Radomsko Swietokrzy skie Kielce Stalowa Wola Czestochowa Jedrzejow Staszow Nisko Tarnobrzeg Malopolskie Bielsko-Biala Nowy Sacz Lubelskie Kozienice Pulawy Radom Lublin Chelm Mielec Lancut Przeworsk Ropczyce Tarnow Rzeszow Przemysl Jaslo Radzyn Podlaski Podkarpackie Belarus Krasnystaw Hrubieszow Zamosc Ukraine Slovakia 4

4 All Packs Collected Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Non-Domestic 18.2% Includes 2,5% of Domestic 81.8% N= 343,423 weighted sticks 8

5 All Packs Collected Non-domestic Packs Incidence Evolution 100% Includes 2,6% of Includes 2,7% of Includes 2,2% of Includes 2,2% of Includes 2,5% of Includes 1,7% of Includes 2,6% of Includes 2,5% of 90% 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% 18.2% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 86.0% 85.5% 84.6% 83.0% 82.7% 81.0% 82.2% 81.8% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q N= 346,044 N= 345,161 Figures are given in weighted sticks. N= 344,876 N= 344,256 Domestic Packs N= 343,885 N= 343,132 Non-domestic Packs N= 343,800 N= 343,423 9

6 Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by Nielsen Region Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 18.2% 7,0% 43,3% Q Warsaw 20.3% Central 19.9% East 36.5% North 8.0% South 10.1% South-East 12.1% South-West 5.2% West 2.3% Q Warsaw 21.3% Central 21.8% East 28.1% North 7.4% South 11.7% South-East 18.7% South-West 5.3% West 2.6% 2,4% 7,4% Warsaw 27,8%* 23,9%* Q Warsaw 21.6% Central 22.1% East 43.9% North 6.4% South 9.4% South-East 15.3% South-West 6.3% West 1.2% Q Warsaw 21.9% Central 26.3% East 46.7% North 7.7% South 13.0% South-East 12.7% South-West 6.2% West 3.9% 16,1% 16,0% Q Warsaw 28.0% Central 21.5% East 35.2% North 7.0% South 17.6% South-East 20.4% South-West 6.0% West 2.8% Q Warsaw 26.9% Central 24.9% East 39.8% North 6.1% South 13.0% South-East 16.7% South-West 10.0% West 2.8% Q Warsaw 32.7% Central 19.6% East 49.1% North 5.9% South 14.1% South-East 17.3% South-West 3.9% West 10.2% 18 All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence

7 Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by City Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 18.2% Largest 40 cities N= 343,423 weighted sticks Szczecin (8,2%) Gorzów Wielkopolski (10,2%) Zielona Góra (3,3%) Legnica (4,0%) Koszalin (7,4%) Wałbrzych (12,6%) Poznań (0,5%) Wrocław (6,8%) Gdynia (0,7%) Gdańsk (0,2%) Bydgoszcz (15,1%) Opole (7,2%) Toruń (9,7%) Kalisz (1,3%) Włocławek (11,2%) Łódź (20,9%) Częstochowa (36,2%) Zabrze (8,9%) Rybnik Gliwice (11,1%) (6,1%) Katowice (9,2%) Sosnowiec Chorzow (21,4%) Bytom (18,5%) Tychy (23,0%) (15,8%) Ruda Śląska (19,2%) Elbląg (70,3%) Grudziądz (9,5%) Bielsko Biała (4,9%) Płock (29,9%) Dąbrowa Górnicza (18,7%) Kraków (13,4%) Olsztyn (58,8%) Warszawa (27,8%) Tarnów (8,5%) Radom (26,7%) Kielce (5,7%) Rzeszów (32,8%) Białystok (35,3%) Lublin (31,0%) Small Towns REGION CITY INCIDENCE East Sokółka 60,6% Braniewo 83,0% Lidzbark Warmiński 67,9% Krasnystaw 32,5% Hrubieszów 33,9% Olecko 40,5% Radzyń Podlaski 21,1% South-East Nisko 39,9% Jasło 36,6% Ropczyce 35,9% Przeworsk 34,6% Łańcut 30,7% Jędrzejów 10,6% Staszów 5,3% Central Radomsko 45,4% Łask 19,9% Milanówek 21,2% Kozienice 19,8% Sokołów Podlaski 20,0% West Międzyrzecz 8,6% Złotów 0,7% Oborniki 2,6% Szamotuły 2,0% Chodzież 2,0% South-West Złotoryja 12,5% Strzelce Opolskie 11,4% Krapkowice 4,6% Bogatynia 17,9% Namysłów 1,3% North Gryfice 2,1% 19

8 Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Comparison of Results in Large Cities Vs. Results in Smaller Towns 100.0% N= 343,423 weighted sticks 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 18.2% 17.8% 26.4% 50.0% Non-domestic 40.0% 30.0% 81.8% 82.2% 73.6% Domestic 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 70 cities (40 largest cities + 30 smaller towns) Largest 40 cities 95,2% out of total 100% sample 30 smaller towns 4,8% out of total 100% sample N= 343,423 N= 326,838 N= 16,585 20

9 Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Siemianowice Slaskie Chorzow Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice Belchat ow M yslowice Jawor zno Tychy Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow ALMARES Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Pomorskie Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Zachodniopomorskie 0.4% 63.6% Podlaskie 36.8% 7.9% Kujawsko-Pomorskie Belarus 12.4% Mazowieckie 27.6% Germany Lubuskie 6.9% Wielkopolskie 0.8% Lodzkie 27.8% Poland 22.4% Warsaw Lubelskie 30.8% >30% >15% <30% Czech Republic Dolnoslaskie 7.5% Opolskie 6.9% Slaskie 16.1% Swietokrzy skie Malopolskie 12.8% 6.0% Podkarpackie 33.8% Ukraine >2% <15% < 2% Slovakia (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw N= 343,423 weighted sticks 21

10 Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship N= 343,423 weighted sticks Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q WARSAW 20.3% 21.3% 21.6% 21.9% 26.9% 32.7% 28.0% 27.8% Voivodships WARMINSKO-MAZURSKIE 36.0% 33.0% 61.6% 59.4% 43.7% 70.3% 40.1% 63.6% PODLASKIE 44.2% 30.3% 41.7% 44.2% 43.0% 43.3% 38.1% 36.8% PODKARPACKIE 19.9% 40.3% 29.8% 27.2% 25.6% 29.2% 34.1% 33.8% LUBELSKIE 31.1% 22.3% 30.3% 37.5% 33.8% 35.2% 28.7% 30.8% MAZOWIECKIE 20.1% 21.6% 21.2% 23.8% 26.3% 30.4% 28.1% 27.6% LODZKIE 20.0% 21.2% 23.1% 23.5% 25.3% 19.1% 18.0% 22.4% SLASKIE 10.1% 11.7% 9.4% 13.0% 13.0% 14.1% 17.6% 16.1% MALOPOLSKIE 11.7% 14.2% 13.7% 8.2% 15.9% 15.6% 19.3% 12.8% KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE 15.8% 9.9% 12.3% 14.6% 10.2% 11.6% 15.7% 12.4% ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE 4.4% 7.0% 6.7% 6.6% 5.8% 5.3% 3.0% 7.9% DOLNOSLASKIE 5.6% 5.9% 7.1% 6.6% 10.0% 3.7% 6.0% 7.5% OPOLSKIE 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 4.4% 10.2% 4.6% 5.8% 6.9% LUBUSKIE 2.9% 4.3% 2.5% 7.6% 4.6% 8.3% 5.1% 6.9% SWIETOKRZYSKIE 4.2% 9.8% 3.9% 11.7% 9.1% 9.2% 7.4% 6.0% WIELKOPOLSKIE 2.1% 1.9% 0.7% 2.7% 2.1% 10.8% 1.9% 0.8% POMORSKIE 2.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% Total Poland 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% 18.2% (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw 22

11 Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Chorzow Siemianowice Slaskie Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce M yslowice Tychy Jawor zno Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice Belchat ow Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow ALMARES Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Zachodniopomorskie 7.9% Pomorskie 0.4% Kujawsko-Pomorskie 12.4% Warmiòsko-Mazurskie 63.6% Mazowieckie 27.6% Podlaskie 36.8% Belarus N= 343,423 weighted sticks Germany Lubuskie 6.9% Wielkopolskie 0.8% Lodzkie Poland 27.8% 22.4% Lubelskie Warsaw 30.8% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Dolnoslaskie 7.5% Opolskie Czech Republic (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw >30% >15% <30% >2% <15% < 2% Austria Slovenia Croatia 6.9% Slaskie 16.1% Swietokrzy skie Malopolskie 6.0% 12.8% Slovakia Hungary Podkarpackie 33.8% Ukraine WARSAW 20.3% 21.3% 21.6% 21.9% 26.9% 32.7% 28.0% 27.8% Voivodships WARMINSKO-MAZURSKIE 36.0% 33.0% 61.6% 59.4% 43.7% 70.3% 40.1% 63.6% PODLASKIE 44.2% 30.3% 41.7% 44.2% 43.0% 43.3% 38.1% 36.8% PODKARPACKIE 19.9% 40.3% 29.8% 27.2% 25.6% 29.2% 34.1% 33.8% LUBELSKIE 31.1% 22.3% 30.3% 37.5% 33.8% 35.2% 28.7% 30.8% MAZOWIECKIE 20.1% 21.6% 21.2% 23.8% 26.3% 30.4% 28.1% 27.6% LODZKIE 20.0% 21.2% 23.1% 23.5% 25.3% 19.1% 18.0% 22.4% SLASKIE 10.1% 11.7% 9.4% 13.0% 13.0% 14.1% 17.6% 16.1% MALOPOLSKIE 11.7% 14.2% 13.7% 8.2% 15.9% 15.6% 19.3% 12.8% KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE 15.8% 9.9% 12.3% 14.6% 10.2% 11.6% 15.7% 12.4% ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE 4.4% 7.0% 6.7% 6.6% 5.8% 5.3% 3.0% 7.9% DOLNOSLASKIE 5.6% 5.9% 7.1% 6.6% 10.0% 3.7% 6.0% 7.5% OPOLSKIE 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 4.4% 10.2% 4.6% 5.8% 6.9% Romania LUBUSKIE 2.9% 4.3% 2.5% 7.6% 4.6% 8.3% 5.1% 6.9% SWIETOKRZYSKIE 4.2% 9.8% 3.9% 11.7% 9.1% 9.2% 7.4% 6.0% WIELKOPOLSKIE 2.1% 1.9% 0.7% 2.7% 2.1% 10.8% 1.9% 0.8% POMORSKIE 2.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% Total Poland 14.0% 14.5% 15.4% 17.0% 17.3% 19.0% 17.8% 18.2% 23

12 Szczeci n G r yf ice Stargard Szczecinski G orzow Wi el kopol ski Bogat ynia M iedzyr zecz Zielona Gora Jelenia Gora Koszal i n Zlot or yja G logow Lubin Legni ca Wal brzych Pila Szam ot uly Leszno Poznan Swidnica Chodziez O bor niki Zlot ow Wrocl aw G niezno G dyni a Bydgoszcz G dansk O st r ow Wielkopolski Nam yslow Starogard Gdanski I nowr oclaw Kal i sz Konin O pol e Kr apkowice Tczew G rudzi adz Torun Strzelce Opolskie Kedzier zyn- Kozle Racibor z Wl ocl aw ek Rybni k Wodzislaw Slaski El bl ag Kut no Tarnowskie Gory Czest ochow a Lodz Pl ock Dabrowa Gornicza Byt om Bedzin G l i wzabrze i ce Siemianowice Slaskie Chorzow Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Slaska Kat ow i ce Zor y Lask Br aniewo Piekary Slaskie Zgier z Pabianice Belchat ow M yslowice Jawor zno Tychy Bi el sko- Bi al a Radom sko Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Zawier cie Lidzbark Warminski O l szt yn St upsk Tom aszow M azowiecki Krakow Pr uszkow Jedr zejow M ilanowek Legionowo Skar zysko- Kam ienna Ki el ce O st r oleka Warszaw a Radom St ar achowice Nowy Sacz Tarnow Lom za Elk Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski St aszow O lecko Kozienice M ielec Sokolow Podlaski Pulawy Tar nobr zeg Ropczyce Jaslo Siedlce Suwalki Stalowa Wola Rzeszow Bi al yst ok Radzyn Podlaski Nisko Lubl i n Lancut Sokolka Biala Podlaska Pr zewor sk Kr asnyst aw Pr zem ysl Zam osc Chelm Hr ubieszow non-domestic incidence 18,2% includes 2.5% of counterfeit ALMARES CF Incidence by Voivodship Russia Lithuania Pomorskie Warmiòsko-Mazurskie Zachodniopomorskie 0.0% 1.3% Podlaskie 1.5% Kujawsko-Pomorskie 0.0% Belarus 2.4% Mazowieckie Germany Lubuskie 2.2% Wielkopolskie 0.0% Dolnoslaskie 4.8% Lodzkie Poland 4.5% Swietokrzy skie Lubelskie 1.6% 1.0% Opolskie Slaskie 0.1% >30% >15% <30% Czech Republic 1.1% 3.7% Malopolskie 0.7% Podkarpackie 0.9% Ukraine >2% <15% < 2% Slovakia (*): Mazowieckie including Warsaw N= 343,423 weighted sticks 24