Climatic and hydrological modelling Analysis and prognosis Climate diagnosis preliminary results Irena Otop, Bartłomiej Miszuk, Marzenna Strońska Bogatynia, 18.6.213
FACTORS AFFECTING CLIMATE Circulation factors Radiation factors Geographical factors Anthropogenic factors CLIMATE Global scale Regional scale Local scale 2
INFLUENCE OF THE CLIMATE Human Ecosystems Forest ecosystem Water ecosystem Economy Agriculture Transport Tourism Water resources Hydrological regime Weather conditions have a constant influence on ecosystems, water resources, economy and the human organism, causing their adaptation for the actual climate. This 3 adaptation can be disturbed by changes in climatic conditions.
CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 212; www.imgw.pl Seasonal and annual values of coefficient of trends ( o C/1year) of mean air temperature for the 1951-28 KLIMAT Project Sezony Pobrzeża Pojezierza Niziny Wyżyny Sudety Karpaty Polska Zima,4,42,4,31,31,34,38 Wiosna,4,38,35,32,3,38,36 Lato,22,15,15,13,2,25,17 Jesień,8,6,7,1,4,7,6 Rok,27,25,24,19,2,25,24 Source: Limanówka D., i inn., 212, Zmiany i zmienność klimatu od połowy XIX w. W: Projekt KLIMAT, T.1, Wyd. IMGW-PIB Thermal classification Classification of thermal conditions on the basis of the method of Miętus et al., (22) 4
CLIMATE VARIABILITY air temperature Mean air temperature - July 21 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 21; www.imgw.pl 5
CLIMATE VARIABILITY air temperature Mean air temperature - March 213 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 213; www.imgw.pl 6
CLIMATE VARIABILITY precipitation Monthly precipitation totals - August 21 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 21; www.imgw.pl 7
CLIMATE VARIABILITY precipitation Monthly precipitation totals November 211 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 211; www.imgw.pl 8
Hydrological modelling OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF ACTIVITIES - the climate part of the Neymo project The main goal of the climatic analysis within the Neymo project is a common assesment of variability and changes in climate in the context of their influence on water resources in the transborder Lusatian Neisse basin. Meteorological data Meta data Common database 1971-21 Climate diagnosis Missing data Quality control Completion of database (in case of missing data up to 3% of whole data) Precipitation correction Projections of climate change CEC Potsdam 9
PROJECT AREA 1
AVAILABLE DATA Daily data for the years 1971-21 from the IMGW-PIB stations Nr Kod stacji Rząd stacji Stacja Temperatura [ C] min śr max Opady [mm] Wilgotność względna [%] Prężność pary wodnej [hpa] prędkość [m/s] Wiatr kierunek Usłonecznie nie [h] Zachmurzenie [-8] Ciśnienie atm. [hpa] Pokrywa śnieżna [cm] 1 31 I Słubice 2 4 I Zielona Góra 3 415 I Legnica 4 5 I Jelenia Góra 5 51 I Śnieżka 6 416 III Zgorzelec 7 51 IV Bogatynia 8 515 IV Jakuszyce 9 523 IV Szczawno Zdrój 1 942 V Sobolice 11 943 V Łęknica 12 941 V Kaniów 13 9411 V Gubin 14 9417 V Bierna 15 9418 V Leśna 16 9411 V Gryfów Śląski 17 94114 V Sulików 18 94119 V Siekierczyn 19 94128 V Węgliniec 2 94133 V Przejęsław 21 94135 V Kościelna Wieś 22 9414 V Straszów 23 94144 V Żagań 24 94149 V Stypułów 25 951 V Sieniawka 26 9512 V Bukówka 27 9513 V Rębiszów 28 95133 V Pilchowice 11
COMMON DATABASE CURRENT CLIMATE STATE Climate diagnosis Climatic indices ECA&D precipitation thermal drought complex Indices assessed on the basis of the: 1. Values of percentiles e.g. 9 i 1 percentile (Percentile-based indices) 2. Values of absolute extremes (Absolute indices) 3. Threshold values (Threshold indices) 4. Duration of phenomena (Duration indices) Analysis of temporal variability Evaluation of changes in trends Analysis of spatial variability Extreme values, range of changes, deviations in comparison to mean values Determination of the trend and the rate of changes in the 1971-21 period Assessment of differences in particular subregions Mean values, deviations of mean values, extreme values, frequency and duration of the events concerning thermal and precipitation anomalies, etc. 12
THERMAL INDICES Name Index Description Unit Mean air temperature TG Mean of daily/monthly air temperature C Minimum air temperature TN Mean of daily minimum air temperature C Maximum air temperature TX Mean of daily maximum air temperature C Daily temperature range DTR TX - TN C Extreme temperature range ETR TX-TN (absolute extremes) C Begin of thermal growing season GSB TG >= 5 C at min 6 days date End of thermal growing season GSE TG <= 5 C at min 6 days after 1 st of July date Growing season length GSL End GS - start GS days 13
PRECIPITATION INDICES Name Index Description Unit Precipitation totals RR Precipitation sum (RR) mm Day with precipitation RR1 No. of days with RR,1mm days RR1 No. of days with RR 1,mm days Intensity of precipitation SDII Simple daily intensity index (sum RR/ RR1) mm/day Heavy precipitation days R9p R1mm No. of days with RR > 9th percentile of RR No. of days with RR 1mm days Very heavy precipitation days R95p R2mm No. of days with RR > 95th percentile of RR No. of days with RR 2mm days Most extreme precipitation days R99p No. of days with RR > 99th percentile of RR day Precipitation fraction due to very wet days Precipitation fraction due to extremely wet days Consecutive wet days Maximum 1-day precipitation totals Maximum 5-day precipitation totals R9pT R95pT CWD Fraction of annual / seasonal total precipitation due to events exceeding the 9 th percentile Fraction of annual / seasonal total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95 th percentile Maximum no. of consecutive days with RR 1,mm RX1day Highest 1-day precipitation amount RX5day Highest 5-day precipitation amount % % days mm mm 14
ATMOSPHERIC DROUGHT INDICES Name Index Description Unit Climatic water balance CWB RR-PET mm Standardized precipitation index Dry periods frequency Dry periods duration SPI-3 DPF DPD Based on the probability distribution of precipitation - Frequency of RR < 1mm on minimal 11 consecutive days - Duration of RR < 1mm on minimal 11 consecutive days days 15
COMPLEX INDICES Name Index Description Unit Warm/dry days WD No. of days with TG> 75th percentile TG and RR < 25th percentile RR (5 day mean) days Warm/ wet days WW No. of days with TG> 75th percentile TG and RR > 75th percentile RR (5 day mean) days Potential evapotranspiration PET Penman-Monteith formula mm 16
Preliminary results - thermal indices Temperatura powietrza / Air temperature Mean annual air temperature (1971-21) Mean annual air temperature ( o C) Period Słubice 22 m a.s.l. Zielona Góra 192 m a.s.l. Legnica 122 m a.s.l. Jelenia Góra 342 m a.s.l. Śnieżka 163 m a.s.l. 1971-2 8.9 8.6 8.9 7.4.7 1971-198 8.5 8.3 8.5 7.1.3-199 9. 8.5 8.9 7.5.6-2 9.2 8.9 9.2 7.7 1. 21-21 9.4 9.3 9.5 7.9 1.4
1971 21 23 25 27 29 Preliminary results - THERMAL INDICES Mean annual air temperature (1971-21) 11. 1. y =,295x + 8,1481 R² =,15 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. y =,244x + 7,431 R² =,13 [o C] 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1. -2. y =,333x +,1446 R² =,25 Zielona Góra 192 m npm Jelenia Góra 342 m npm Śnieżka 163 m npm The warmest year The coldest year Zielona Góra [195 m a.s.l.] 1.1 o C (2) 6.8 o C (1996) Jelenia Góra [342 m a.s.l.] 9. o C (2) 5.6 o C (1996) Śnieżka [163 m a.s.l.] 2.2 o C (2; 26) -.9 o C (198) 18
1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 o C 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. -5. -1. -15. -2. -25. -3. -35. Preliminary WSKAŹNIKI results - THERMAL INDICES Extreme values of air temperature (1971-21) Zielona Góra Tmax 36,8 o C 1.8.1994 Tmin -22,2 o C 14.1.; 23.1.26 o C 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. -5. -1. -15. -2. -25. -3. -35. TNa TNa TXa TXa Jelenia Góra Tmax 35,8 o C 1.8.1994 Tmin -31,8 o C 8.1.; 19
Preliminary results Precipitation indices for selected meteorological stations Sobolice 15 m npm Śląsko-Łużycka Nizina Zielona Góra 192 m npm Wzniesienia Zielonogórskie Siekierczyn 255 m npm Pogórze Zachodniosudeckie Jelenia Góra 342 m npm Sudety Zachodnie Sobolice Siekierczyn
1971 21 23 25 27 29 1971 21 23 25 27 29 [mm] [mm] 1971 21 23 25 27 29 [mm] Preliminary results - PRECIPITATION INDICES Annual precipitation totals in the 1971-21 period 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Zielona Góra [192 m n.p.m.] [mm] 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Sobolice [ 15 m n.p.m.] 1971 21 23 25 27 29 Jelenia Góra [342 m n.p.m.] Siekierczyn [ 255 m n.p.m.] 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Wyniki Preliminary wstępne results - PRECIPITATION INDICES Monthly precipitation totals (1971-21) 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Zielona Góra [192 m a.s.l.] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Sobolice [15 m a.s.l.] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII max średnie min [mm] [mm] max średnie min 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jelenia Góra [342 m a.s.l.] 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII max średnie min max średnie min 22 Siekierczyn [ 255 m a.s.l.]
Preliminary results PRECIPITATION INDICES Number of days with daily precipitation 1. mm (1971-21)
1971 21 23 25 27 29 [liczba dni] 1971 21 23 25 27 29 [liczba dni] Preliminary results PRECIPITATION INDICES Number of days with daily precipitation 1. mm (1971-21) Zielona Góra [192 m n.p.m.] 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 2 15 1 25 2 15 1 5 5 1971 21 23 25 27 29 1971 21 23 25 27 29 [liczba dni] Sobolice [15 m n.p.m.] [liczba dni] Jelenia Góra [342 m n.p.m.] Siekierczyn [255 m n.p.m.] 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5
Preliminary results Maximum daily precipitation totals in the years 1971-21 Jakuszyce - 24,3 mm 7.8.26 Szczawno Zdr 178,6 mm 31.8.22 Bogatynia 16,2 mm 7.8.21 25
[mm] [mm] [mm] [mm] Wyniki Preliminary wstępne results PRECIPITATION INDICES Maximum daily precipitation totals (1971-21) Zielona Góra [192 m npm] Sobolice [15 m npm] 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII RX1day RX1day Jelenia Góra [342 m npm] Siekierczyn [255 m npm] 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII RX1day RX1day 26
1971 21 23 25 27 29 1971 21 23 25 27 29 [mm] [mm] Preliminary results PRECIPITATION INDICES Maximum 5-day precipitation totals (1971-21) [mm] Zielona Góra [192 m n.p.m.] 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1971 21 23 25 27 29 [mm] Sobolice [15 m n.p.m.] 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1971 21 23 25 27 29 Jelenia Góra [342 m n.p.m.] Siekierczyn [255 m n.p.m.] 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2
prawdopodobieństwo standaryzacja Wyniki wstępne Preliminary results DROUGHT INDEX SPI - Standardized Precipitation Index Standardized precipitation index SPI for detection and evaluation of drought periods intensity for drought monitoring (e.g. in USA, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland) enables an objective and comparable assessment for various climatic conditions in a various time scale calculated on the basis of multiannual precipitation series for a given time period (month, season, half-year, ) standardized precipitation sum homogeneous precipitation series are standardized f(p) normalizacja wysokość opadu SPI Bardo 28
1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Wyniki wstępne Preliminary results DROUGHT INDEX Values of the SPI-3 (1971-21) 4. 3. 2. 1. Sobolice 15 m npm. -1. -2. -3. -4. SPI DROUGHT CLASSES Original [McKee i in., ] 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1. -2. SPI3 Jelenia Góra 342 m npm mild [ - -1) moderate [-1 - -1,5) strong [-1,5 - -2) extreme <= -2-3. -4. 1982 1992 23 SPI3 29
Summary Mean annual air temperature is characterized by an increasing trend in the 1971-21 period Extreme annual values of minimum air temperature are characterized by significantly higher year-to-year variability in comparison to the values of extreme maximum air temperature Annual precipitation totals are characterized by high year-toyear variability; there are no significance trends in the 1971-21 period Number of days with precipitation >1, mm is characterized by an increasing trend in the case of the stations located in the southern part of the region In terms of extreme precipitations, there are no statistically significant trends observed 3
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