Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 2015 Q1.

Transkrypt

1 June 215 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1. Jacek Łaszek Hanna Augustyniak Krzysztof Olszewski Joanna Waszczuk Financial Stability Department

2 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 The analysis of the situation in the Polish real estate market in 215 Q1 1 leads to the following conclusions: The residential real estate sector remained balanced despite a further increase in the number of housing units pending sale. Similarly to the previous quarter, the commercial real estate market, especially the office and retail real estate market, continued to post an imbalance between demand for space and space supply resulting from the implementation of new investment projects. This led to growing vacancy rates in the office space sector. Transaction prices per square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets of the largest cities were stable. The Warsaw market saw a decline in prices in the secondary market driven by the sale of a larger number of lower quality or poorer location dwellings. In all the analysed cities, prices in the primary market exceeded those in the secondary market. The average transaction prices per one square of housing in real terms (deflated with CPI) showed a slight increase both in the primary and in the secondary market. Hedonic prices 2 in the secondary market in Warsaw were stable which means that prices of comparable housing did not change. In the previous years, the decline of hedonic prices in Warsaw was slower than that of average transaction prices, which means that price decline was driven by the sale of a large number of lower quality dwellings (e.g. housing in a poorer location, in a worse technical condition). Other markets recorded hedonic price stability. Rents remained stable in Warsaw and went slightly up in other major cities. The availability of credit and housing increased which was driven by stable property prices, lower interest rates on housing loans and, in the first place, growth in nominal income. The average availability of housing in major cities picked up to the level of.85 square meter of housing per average monthly wage in the corporate sector, posting an increase of.36 square meter higher as compared to the record low noted in 27 Q3. Housing investment, excluding transaction costs, continues to be profitable in a short-term. Return on housing investment now stands higher than the yield on 1-year Treasury bonds or the interest rate on bank deposits and is close to the profit earned on investment in the commercial 1. The analysis presented in this Quarterly Information is based on data available until 215 Q1. Due to delays in data availability some charts and figures present information until 214 Q4 (inclusive). 2 The hedonic housing price index reflects the "pure" price change, that is the change that results from other factors than differences in the quality of housing. In this study, the hedonic price is an average price from the base period multiplied by the hedonic index. This price reflects the average level of prices of a specific housing sample from the base period (fixed housing basket), after inclusion of the pure change in the price of housing which were sold in consecutive periods. The hedonic price stated in the report says what the average price of the fixed housing sample from a specific reference period would be, considering the real pure change in transaction prices. The difference between the hedonic index used to determine the hedonic price and the average or the median price growth is that the index accounts for the change in the quality of housing sold in a particular period (e.g. the response of the hedonic index to the increase in the number of smaller housing offered at higher price per square meter should be less strong than that of the average price index or the median price index). For more information, see article by M. Widłak (21) entitled Metody wyznaczania hedonicznych indeksów cen jako sposób kontroli zmian jakości dóbr, in Wiadomości Statystyczne no Narodowy Bank Polski

3 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 real estate market. The housing loan servicing costs to rent ratio continues to allow to finance the cost of credit with income from rent. Bank lending was stable. Household debt resulting from mortgage loans increased, a result of disbursements of PLN loans and higher value of mortgage loans denominated in foreign currency as a result of a significant appreciation of the PLN/CHF exchange rate 3. The share of loans denominated in foreign currencies in the currency structure of banks' portfolios (in currency terms) has been on a gradual decline since 212, which is advantageous for financial and macroeconomic stability. This is the result of both the withdrawal from mortgage lending in foreign currency and shorter loan maturity (early repayment and refinancing). Despite the fact that lower quality receivables were sold to debt collection agencies, the share of doubtful mortgage loans to total loans increased and stood at 3.4%. Profitability of housing investment continues at a high level. This is associated with the ratio of home prices to costs of building materials and construction works being on the decline for several years, which is profitable to real estate developers. Financial data of real estate developers usually show low profitability of their business, which is also reflected in the stock exchange quotations of the largest companies in the industry. The estimated profitability of home construction projects undertaken by developers also continues at a sound level which is confirmed by the launch of new investment projects. The number of bankruptcies in the real estate development industry is on the decline for another consecutive quarter. The number of new home construction contracts and homes under construction is on the rise. This is the consequence of the previously launched housing projects. As a result of high profit margins and rates of return on residential projects, as well as measures undertaken by real estate developers fearing the amendment of the so-called Real Estate Development Act 4 proposed by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection 5, the number of issued building permits increased (the number of building permits issued in 215 Q1 was 4.5 thousand higher than in the corresponding period of 214). In contrast, a slight decline was noted in the number of dwellings under construction (a.4 thousand drop on the 214 Q1 figure) and completed dwellings (a 3.8 thousand decline as compared with the corresponding period of the last year). The stock of unsold housing in Poland s six largest cities increased further in the analysed period (by approx. 7 housing units) following the last quarter s decline. High supply of new home construction contracts failed to be absorbed by the market despite growing demand. Demand was high as the effects of future interest rate cuts had been factored in. This worked in the 3 On 15 January 215 the Swiss National Bank decided to discontinue to peg the Swiss franc against the euro at the exchange rate of CHF 1.2 per EUR, causing the Swiss franc to soar against the euro and the Polish zloty. On 15 January the PLN/CHF exchange rate stood at 5. 4 The Act of 16 September 211 on the protection of home buyers rights entered into force on 29 April 214 (Journal of Laws 232, item 1377). 5 The Office of Competition and Consumer Protection proposes to eliminate open residential escrow accounts as a standalone instrument for the protection of home buyers funds and extend the provisions of the Act to cover the already completed homes and business premises. Open escrow accounts would exist together a bank or insurance guarantee only. Narodowy Bank Polski 3

4 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 opposite direction than the increase in the amount of down payment in mortgage lending 6. As a result, the home selling time in the primary market in the six largest cities slightly increased. We note a cyclical increase in the number of completed dwellings. This results from housing market growth rate and has no impact on economic developments. Real estate developers continue to manage to correctly adjust the structure of housing demand, as opposed to the secondary market, where supply is determined by the structure of the housing stock. Upper limits of prices per square meter of housing admitted to the MDM government subsidized housing scheme in 215 Q1 remained unchanged in Warszawa, were raised in Wrocław, Kraków and Poznań and were reduced in Łódź and Gdańsk. The limits increased the estimated annual rate of return on real estate projects sold under this scheme from 5% to 8% in Kraków, from 1% to 11% in Wrocław and remained at approx. 12% in Warszawa. On the other hand, in Gdańsk the annual rate of return fell from 14% to 13%. The commercial real estate market saw a further downward trend in the value of real estate, which is reflected in falling valuations of shares in closed-end investment funds investing in commercial real estate in Poland. The Warsaw office property market consistently posts a high vacancy rate, which stood at 13% at the end of the analysed period. Although the demand for office real estate remains stable, real estate developers continue to engage in office space construction. 6 In accordance with Recommendation S (point 15.7) on mortgage-secured credit exposure arisen from 1 January 215 to 31 December 215 the LtV indicator should not exceed 9% 4 Narodowy Bank Polski

5 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 The figures below present the most important developments in the housing market in Poland s major cities in 215 Q1. 7 harts and figures present: 1) home prices (Figures 1 13), 2) housing availability, loan availability, availability of loan-financed housing, profitability of housing investment (Figures 14-19), 3) mortgage loan disbursements and interest rates (Figures 2-27), 4) operating profitability of housing and real estate development projects, costs of construction and assembly output and economic situation of real estate developers in Poland (Figures 28-45), 5) housing construction and the residential market in Poland (Figures 46-59). 6) housing policy in Poland (Figures 6-63). The analysis of housing prices, offer prices, transaction prices and hedonic prices in the primary and secondary markets relies on the data from the housing market survey of the Real Estate Market Database (BaRN) 8. As part of the survey of the commercial real estate market, Commercial Real Estate Market Database (BaNK) data on rent, offer prices and transaction prices of commercial real estate are collected and analyzed. Also data from PONT Info Nieruchomości (PONT), AMRON, SARFIN Polish Banks Association and Comparables.pl were used in the analyses. We also relied on the analyses and reports of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) and the aggregate credit data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK). For the structural market analysis, data published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and many studies containing sector data were used. 7 The information was prepared by the Financial Stability Department for the needs of the authorities of NBP and it presents the authors opinions. This document should not be read as an advisory material, nor should it be the basis for any investment decisions. 8 See Programme for Surveys in Public Statistics for 214. Annex to the Decree of the Council of Ministers of 9 August 213 on the Programme for Surveys in Public Statistics for 215 (Journal of Laws of 215, item 133), symbol (78). The survey of residential and commercial real estate prices in Poland s selected cities is conducted by the President of Narodowy Bank Polski. The reporting forms were announced in the Decree of the Prime Minister of 5 February 214 on reporting forms, completion instructions and statistical questionnaires and survey forms used in surveys of public statistics for 213 (Journal of Laws of 213 item 1223). Since the survey is carried out by NBP, the Bank publishes the surveys on its website. In 215 Q1, approx. 89.5% of records were collected, including approx. 23.4% of records concerning transactions and 76.6% records concerning offers. Altogether approx. 1.4 million records were collected, including 2.2% of records concerning transactions and 8.8% of records concerning offers. Narodowy Bank Polski 5

6 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 List of abbreviations 5C 6C 7C 1C BaNK BaRN BIK CPI LD GD CSO IRR EURIBOR KNF KRS LIBOR LTV MDM IFRS NBP RNS PM PAS SM ROE WIBOR WIG2 ZKPK 5 cities: Gdańsk, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław 6 cities: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław 7 cities: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warszawa, Wrocław 1 cities: Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Katowice, Kielce, Lublin, Olsztyn, Opole, Rzeszów, Szczecin, Zielona Góra Commercial Real Estate Database Real Estate Database Credit Information Bureau Consumer Price Index Large real estate development company Households Central Statistical Office Internal Rate of Return Euro Interbank Offer Rate Polish Financial Supervision Authority National Court Register London Interbank Offered Rate Loan-to-Value Government-subsidized housing scheme Mieszkanie dla Młodych [Housing for the Young] International Financial Reporting Standards Narodowy Bank Polski Government-subsidized housing scheme Rodzina na Swoim [Family on their Own] Primary housing market Polish Accounting Standards Secondary housing market (existing housing stock) Return on Equity Warsaw Interbank Offered Rate Index including top 2 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange with the highest value of publicly traded shares Accumulated index of changes in banks credit policy criteria 6 Narodowy Bank Polski

7 II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 1. Transaction, hedonic and offer prices of housing in the primary market (PM) and in the secondary market (SM) Figure 1 Transaction prices per square meter of housing PM (PLN/sq. m) Figure 2 Transaction prices per square meter of housing SM (PLN/sq. m) Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Wrocław Warszawa Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Wrocław Warszawa Note: the home price database of NBP (BaRN) has existed since 26 Q3; description of the database may be found in the 213 Annual Report. Figure 3 Weighted average price per square meter of housing, offers and transactions PM (PLN/sq. m) Figure 4 Weighted average price per square meter of housing, offers and transactions SM (PLN/sq. m) Warszawa oferta 6M oferta 1M oferta Warszawa trans. 6M trans. 1M tran. Note to Figures 3 13: the price weighted with the share of housing in the market stock, the average price for Warsaw, 6C are the following cities: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław; 1C are the following cities : Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Katowice, Kielce, Lublin, Olsztyn, Opole, Rzeszów, Szczecin, Zielona Góra. Figure 5 Ratio of the average weighted transaction price per square meter of housing PM to SM 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1,,95,9,85,8 Warszawa oferta 6M oferta 1M oferta Warszawa trans. 6M trans. 1M trans. Figure 6 Ratio of the average weighted transaction price to offer price per square meter of housing SM 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 Warszawa 6M 1M Warszawa 6M 1M Narodowy Bank Polski 7

8 II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 7 Weighted average and real price per square meter of housing in the primary market to CPI-deflated price (26 Q3 = 1) Figure 8 Weighted average and real price per square meter of housing in the secondary market to CPI deflated price (26 Q3 = 1) Warszawa RP trans. 6M RP trans. 1M RP trans. Source: NBP, AMRON, GUS. Warszawa RP trans. defl. CPI 6M RP trans. defl. CPI. 1M RP trans. defl. CPI Figure 9 Weighted average transaction price per square meter of housing adjusted by the hedonic price index SM, transactions (PLN/sq. m) Warszawa RW trans. 6M RW trans. 1M RW trans. Source: NBP, AMRON, GUS. Warszawa RW trans. defl. CPI 6M RW trans. defl. CPI. 1M RW trans. defl. CPI Figure 1 Transaction price per square meter of housing in SM, adjusted by the hedonic price index, in the largest cities (PLN/sq. m) Warszawa hed. 6M hed. 1M hed. Warszawa RW 6M RW 1M RW Figure 11 Average offer prices per square meter, new launched housing contracts PM, selected markets (PLN/sq. m) Gdańsk Kraków Łódź Poznań Wrocław Warszawa Figure 12 Average offer prices per square meter, new housing contracts PM in 7 cities (PLN/sq. m) Łódź Kraków Poznań Trójmiasto Wrocław Warszawa Note: prices refer only to new contracts put on the market for the first time. Source: Real Estate Advisory System (REAS). Gdańsk Gdynia Łódź Kraków Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Note: prices are collected from all available sources.: Source: PONT Info Nieruchomości. 8 Narodowy Bank Polski

9 II II II II II II II II II II II II liczba pzec. mies. wynagr. indeks ZKPK II II II II II II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 13 Average rent rates (offers and transactions) per square meter of housing in 7 cities (PLN/sq. m) Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław 7M śr.waż.zasobem 2. Housing availability, loan availability, availability of loan-financed housing, profitability of housing investment Figure 14 Available weighted * mortgage loans and accumulated index of banks housing loan policy (ZKPK) Figure 15 Availability of loan-financed housing per one square meter (weighted loans *; square meter/ average) Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław średnia 7M indeks ZKPK Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław średnia 7M Note: weighting with the currency structure of the quarterly housing loan increase; since the beginning of 212, practically only zloty mortgage loans have been granted. Available housing loan a measure specifying the potential maximum housing loan; expressed as multiplication of the monthly wage in the enterprise sector in a particular market, taking into account banks lending requirements and loan parameters (interest rate, amortization period, minimum wage, as the minimum income after payment of loan instalments). Availability of loan-financed housing a measure specifying how many square meters of housing may be purchased with a mortgage loan obtained basing on an average monthly wage in the enterprises sector in a particular market (GUS), in view of bank s lending requirements and loan parameters (interest rate, depreciation period, social minimum under-stood as the minimum income after payment of loan instalments) at an average transaction price of housing (4% in the primary market and 6% in the secondary market) in a particular market (BaRN). The pace of changes of the index and differences between particular markets provide important information. ZKPK Index accumulated index of changes in banks lending policy criteria; positive values mean easing, and negative values tightening of lending policy as compared to the initial period i.e. 23 Q4. Computing methods of the index are described in the Financial Stability Report, December 212, NBP. Source: NBP, GUS. Source: NBP, GUS. Narodowy Bank Polski 9

10 II II II II II II III 25 I 26 II II II II II II II II II II II II I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 16 Housing availability in terms of one square meter of housing for an average wage in the enterprise sector Figure 17 Costs of PLN housing loans for consumer as deflated with CPI or wage growth in the enterprise sector 8% 1,,9,8,7,6,5,4,3 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław średnia 7 nom.st.proc.kred.mieszk.pln real.st.proc.kred.mieszk.pln def. CPI real.st.proc.kred.mieszk.pln dla kred.rns / MDM def.cpi real.st.proc.kred.mieszk.pln dla kred.rns / MDM def.dyn.wynagr.(wyrówn.) real.st.proc.kred.mieszk.pln def. dyn.wynagr.(wyrówn.) Housing availability a measure of potential availability to purchase housing space at the transaction price for an average wage in a particular city. It expresses the number of square meters of housing that can be purchased for an average wage in the enterprise sector in a particular city (GUS), at an average transaction price in a particular market (4% in the PM and 6% in the SM) (NBP). Source: NBP, GUS. Figure 18 Profitability of home rental (average in 8 cities) as compared with bank deposits and loans, 1- year Treasury bonds and rate of capitalization of commercial property (offices and retail space) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Note: values below denote negative real interest rate for the borrower; red lines separate the period of the absence of the government subsidized housing scheme (RNS till December 212, MDM since January 214). Source: NBP, GUS, BGK. Figure 19 Performance indicators of closed-end real estate investment funds operating in the commercial real estate market (Q2 28 = 1) ,5 4 najem do dep.gd najem do obl.1l. najem do kred.mieszk.gd najem do kap.nier.kom. Note: values exceeding 1 denote higher profitability of purchasing property for rental than other capital investment. This analysis does not take into account high transaction costs in the housing market and potentially long payback periods. Source: NBP, GUS. Skarbiec-Rynku Nieruchomości FIZ Arka BZ WBK Fundusz Rynku Nieruchomości 2 FIZ Arka BZ WBK Fundusz Rynku Nieruchomości 1 FIZ BPH FIZ Sektora Nieruchomości 1 BPH FIZ Sektora Nieruchomości 2 Note: in the case of investment funds Arka BZ WBK and Skarbiec the valuation is for the end of January, April, July and October, whereas it is presented as the quarterly valuation Source: Internet pages of closed-end investment funds. 1 Narodowy Bank Polski

11 II II II II II IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 zmiany kwartalne w mld zł I 24 I 25 I 26 I 23 I 24 I 25 I 26 stan w mld zł Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 3. Disbursement of housing loans, interest rates Figure 2 Figure 26 Balance and quarter-on-quarter changes in housing loan receivables from households after adjustments and the currency structure of quarter-on-quarter increases in housing loan receivables (PLN billion) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,, -2, -4, Figure 21 Structure of housing loan receivables from households resulting from housing loans (%) walutowe złotowe 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % mieszkaniowe kredyty walutowe po korektach (zm.kw.) (L oś) mieszkaniowe kredyty złotowe (zm.kw) (L oś) stan kredytu mieszkaniowego (P oś) w tym stan kredytu walutowego (P oś) Figure 22 Housing loans to households (in PLN billion, left-hand axis) and the indicator of doubtful loans (%, RHS) % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Figure 23 Estimated bank yield on zloty denominated mortgage loans in Poland 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na nier. mieszk. (P oś) Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na nier. mieszk. złotowych (P oś) Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na nier. mieszk. walutowych (P oś) Note: receivables (loans) with determined loss of value receivables from portfolio B, in relation to which objective premises of loss in value were observed and a decrease in the expected value of future cash flows (in banks using the IFRS) or which were deemed as doubtful receivables in accordance with the Ordinance of the Minister of Finance on establishing provisions against the risk associated with banking activities (in banks using the Polish Accounting Standards). Kredyty hipoteczne mieszkaniowe (L. oś) Obciążenie kredytów odpisami Efektywny koszt finansowania kredytów Efektywne oprocentowanie kredytów Skorygowana marża odsetkowa na kredytach ROE (P oś) Note: Income and costs related to the mortgage loan portfolio. Estimated ROE (Return on Equity) is calculated as the adjusted interest margin on mortgage loans with respect to the minimum required down-payment. The minimum down-payment requirement is assessed on the basis of LTV estimate derived from the AMRON data and capital requirement for mortgage loans as set by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF). The adjusted interest margin is the result of all income being added and all costs being deducted. The effective cost of financing was computed based on the WIBOR rates by adding estimative costs related to bank's own financing. Narodowy Bank Polski 11

12 I 23 III 23 I 24 III 24 I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II 25 I 25 III 26 I 26 III 27 I 27 III 28 I 28 III 29 I 29 III 21 I 21 III 211 I 211 III 212 I 212 III 213 I 213 III 214 I 214 III wartość w mld zł liczba w tys. mld zł Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 24 New housing loans: value and number in the quarter Figure 25 Geographical structure of the value of new housing loan contracts in Poland 1% 2 9% 18 8% 16 7% 14 6% 12 5% 1 4% 8 3% 6 2% 4 1% 2 % - Note: the data inform about signed housing loan contracts and not the actual disbursement of housing loans. Source: ZBP. wartość PLN liczba PLN w tym wartość walutowe w tym liczba walutowe Source: BIK. Warszawa 6M 1M pozostala Polska Polska Table 1 Estimated gross mortgage loan disbursements to households in Poland and the estimated value of cash and loan-financed purchases of developer housing in 7 largest markets (in PLN million) Date Estimated amount Estimated Estimated Estimated value of cash Estimated value of of disbursed loans value of cash value of disbursed hous- home purchas- housing transactions in the PM in payment for home chases in the with client s down home puring loans in es in the PM in 7 cities purchases in the PM in Poland 7 cities PM in 7 cities 7 cities h 212 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: The estimates are based on the following assumptions: the estimated value of newly granted loans in Poland in particular quarters was based on increases in the volume of loans to households adjusted for loan amortization and flows between the foreign currency loan portfolio and the zloty loan portfolio, available in the NBP reporting. The entire banking system was taken into account, including credit unions SKOK. In order to calculate the estimated value of the primary market in 7 cities (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warszawa, Wrocław), the average home price was multiplied by the average home size in square meters and the number of housing units sold (based on REAS data). On the basis of BIK data it was assumed that the value of newly granted loans for the purchase of housing in the primary markets of 7 cities accounted for 5% of the value of housing loans in those cities, whereas at the end of 213 this share amounted to approx. 57%. The estimated value of cash transactions was calculated as the differences between transactions in 7 markets and disbursements of loans requiring buyer s own contribution. 7 cities: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warszawa, Wrocław. 12 Narodowy Bank Polski

13 I 24 III 24 I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II I = 1 I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II I25 III 25 I26 I27 I28 II I29 I21 II I211 II I212 II I213 II I214 II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 26 Interest rates on housing loans for households in Poland 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Figure 27 Bank margins (to WIBOR, LIBOR, EURI- BOR 3M) on new housing loans 5,% 4,5% 4,% 3,5% 3,% 2,5% 2,% 1,5% 1,% PLN nowe CHF nowe EUR nowe PLN stany CHF stany Note: foreign currency loans practically ceased to be granted in 212. %PLN-WIBOR3M %CHF- LIBOR3M %EUR-EURIBOR3M %PLN-st.dep.GD nowe %PLN-st.dep.GD stany Bank margin is the difference between housing loan rate (NBP data) and the LIBORCHF3M rate, the EURIBOR3M rate or WI- BOR3M rate. 4. Operating rate of return on housing and real estate development projects, costs of construction and assembly production and economic situation of real estate developers in Poland Figure 28 Rescaled stock exchange indices: WIG2 and for real estate developers (WIG-DEW) and construction companies (WIG-BUD) (27 Q2 =1) Figure 29 Number of bankruptcies in the sectors (as at the end of the first quarters) Działalność związana z obsługą rynku nieruchomości Budownicwto (firmy budowlane) WIG2 WIG-DEW. WIG-BUD. Note: harmonized data, 27 Q2 = 1. The WIG index for real estate developers has been recorded since 27 Q Q 1 information as at 27 May 215 Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange. Note: breakdown according to the first entry into the National Court Register (KRS). Data present only those companies against which official bankruptcy proceedings have been conducted; enterprises which have ceased their economic activity through liquidation or suspension of activity have been excluded. Source: Coface Poland. Narodowy Bank Polski 13

14 IV 24 IV 26 II II II II II II IV 24 IV 26 II II II II II II I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 3 Share of direct construction costs per square meter of the residential building s usable area (type 1121 building 9 ) in the transaction price in the primary market 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% Figure 31 Rate of return on equity from investment projects in the largest cities and the actual rate of return of real estate developers (LDs) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% 35% % 3% Gdańsk Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud. Gdańsk Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław DFD Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, GUS (F1). Note: The rate of return on equity from typical new investment projects assuming the currently applicable interest rates, banks requirements and production costs; calculated on the basis of the diagram included in Annex 3 of the Report on the situation of the Polish market of residential and commercial real estate in 211 LDs ROE of an average large real development company (GUS). In 214, appraisal of land for apartment construction was used which changed the previous estimates for Poznań and Łódź. Figure 32 Warszawa structure of price per one square meter of housing usable area in the PM (type 1121 building 9/ ) to be paid by consumer (PLN/sq. m) Figure 33 Kraków - structure of price per one square meter of housing usable area in the PM (type 1121 building 9/ ) to be paid by consumer (PLN/sq. m) robocizna materiały sprzęt koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne projekt ziemia VAT skum.zysk dew.brut Uwaga do wykresów do I kw. 28 r. dane wyłącznie na koniec IV kwartału. Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. robocizna materiały sprzęt koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne projekt ziemia VAT skum.zysk dew.brut Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. 9 Building (type 1121) monitored by NBP since the second half of 24 as an average residential multi-family five-storey building with an underground parking space and retail premises on the ground-floor; traditional construction (overground part made from ceramic bricks). For the sake of convenience, it has been assumed that construction costs of one square meter of parking space and retail space are close to the costs of housing sold in shell condition; Real price of 1 square meter of housing, based on construction costs, depends on the share of outer space [building's common area], different for various buildings; when calculating the price of 1 square meter of usable housing area to be paid by consumer, we have assumed 2% share of outer space [building s common area] with respect to housing area and by this figure we have adjusted upward the price of 1 square meter of housing. Data adapted to the new developer's model of the construction process described further in Article 3 of the Report on the situation of the Polish residential and commercial real estate market in Narodowy Bank Polski

15 I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II I 24 III 24 I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II IV 24 IV 26 II II II II II II IV 24 IV 26 II II II II II II IV 24 IV 26 II II II II II II IV 24 IV 26 II II II II II II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 34 Gdańsk structure of price per one square meter of housing usable area in the PM (type 1121 building 9/ ) to be paid by consumer (PLN/sq. m) Figure 35 Poznań structure of price per one square meter of housing usable area in the PM (type 1121 building 9/ ) to be paid by consumer (PLN/sq. m) robocizna materiały sprzęt koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne projekt ziemia VAT skum.zysk dew.brut Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Figure 36 Wrocław structure of price per one square meter of housing usable area in the PM (type 1121 building 9/ ) to be paid by consumer (PLN/sq. m) robocizna materiały sprzęt koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne projekt ziemia VAT skum.zysk dew.brut Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Figure 37 Łódź structure of price per one square meter of housing usable area in the PM (type 1121 building 9/ ) to be paid by consumer (PLN/sq. m) robocizna materiały sprzęt koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne projekt ziemia VAT skum.zysk dew.brut Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Figure 38 Anticipated changes in the price of construction and assembly production (+M3) and growth in the costs of construction of the residential building s usable area (type 1121 building 8 /) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% robocizna materiały sprzęt koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne projekt ziemia VAT skum.zysk dew.brut Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Figure 39 Cost of construction of one square meter of the residential building s usable area (type 1121 building 8 /) (PLN/sq. m) Przewidywane zmiany cen robót bud.-montaż. (+3M) wg ankiety GUS Dynamika kw/kw faktycznych kosztów budowy wg Sekocenbud Source: NBP based on GUS data (business conditions survey), Sekocenbud. Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Trójmiasto Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud. Narodowy Bank Polski 15

16 II II II II II I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II zadłużenie ogółem w mld zł I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II zadłużenie firm z problemami w mld zł I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II mld zł mln zł lata produkcji Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 4 Economic indicators of Large Developers (LDs) Figure 41 Situation of LDs przychody koszty ogółem wynik netto bank ziemi projekty w toku mieszkania bank ziemi w latach prod. (P oś) Note to figures 4-42 a large developer employs over 5 persons according to GUS Source: NBP based on GUS (F1). Source: NBP based on GUS (F1). Figure 42 Costs of an average large developer (LD) % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Figure 43 Value of real estate developers debt (commercial banks) and debt of real estate developers facing financial problems (PLN billion) ,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, zużycie materiałów i energii wynagrodzenia wsk.poz.kosztów (P oś) Source: NBP based on GUS (F1). usługi obce inne zadłużenie firm dew. (L oś) zadłużenie firm dew. z problemami (P oś) Note to 43: companies whose debt has been classified by banks as doubtful debt (this refers to large-scale exposure only, exceeding the value of PLN 5 thousand); starting from 213 Q3, apart from slight decline in the exposure of indebted companies, the data may differ from the previous ones due to changes in large exposure reporting. Data exclusive of BGK. Figure 44 Loans to corporations for real estate purchases (in PLN billion, left-hand axis) and the share of loans classified as doubtful (in % right-hand axis) Kredyty na powierzchnię biurową Kredyty na nieruchomości mieszkaniowe Kredyty na nieruchomości pozostałe Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na nieruchomości mieszkaniowe Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na powierzchnię biurową Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na pozostałe nieruchomości Note: exclusive of BGK. Source NBP. 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Figure 45 Value of investment transactions (EUR billion) Biura Handlowe Magazyny Pozostałe Source: Comparables.pl. 16 Narodowy Bank Polski

17 IV 25 II 26 IV 26 I IV 27 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 II II II II II II mieszkania (w tys.) I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II mieszkania w kwartale mieszkania w kwartale I 25 III 25 I 26 II II II II II II mieszkania mieszkania w kwartale Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 5. Residential construction and housing market in Poland s selected cities Figure 46 Structure of housing construction investors in Poland in the first quarters of the years Figure 47 Completed housing in Poland, in quarteron-quarter terms (housing units) oddane rozpoczęte pozwolenia przeznaczone na sprz. i wyn. indywidualne spółdzielcze pozostałe Source: GUS. Figure 48 Housing under construction in Poland, in quarter-on-quarter terms (housing units) 6 7 miast pozostała Polska Note to Figures 47 49: in violet colour only fourth quarters have been marked Source: GUS. Figure 49 Issued building permits in Poland, in quarter-on-quarter terms (housing units) miast pozostała Polska 7 miast pozostała Polska Source: GUS. Source: GUS. Figure 5 Home construction indicator in Poland (housing under construction minus completed housing, in housing units) and housing permits Figure 51 Number of housing units put on the market, both sold and offered for sale in Poland s 6 largest markets* wskaźnik pozwolenia na budowę mieszkań Note: rolling averages for four subsequent quarters Source: NBP based on PABB and GUS. wprowadzone w kwartale oferta na koniec kwartału sprzedane w kwartale *Warszawa, Kraków, Trójmiasto, Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź. Sourceo: REAS. Narodowy Bank Polski 17

18 I IV 27 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 I IV 27 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 I IV 27 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 I IV 27 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 II II II II II II II II II II II II mieszkania m kw. / st. proc. Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 52 Availability of loan-financed housing versus housing units sold in Poland s 7 largest cities * (demand and supply estimates) Figure 53 Housing supply*/, housing demand **/ and home prices in 7 largest cities mieszkania sprzedane 6M kredytowa dostępność mieszkania 7M ważona*/ (P oś) st.proc.kred.mieszk.pln*1 (P oś) 3 okr. śr. ruch. (mieszkania sprzedane 6M) *Gdańsk, Gdynia, Łódź, Kraków, Poznań, Warszawa, Wrocław. Availability of loan-financed housing weighted with the currency structure of the quarterly rise in mortgage loan.. Source: NBP based on REAS. Figure 54 Structure of housing supply and demand* for housing with an area 5 sq. m, PM in Poland s selected cities 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% oferta na koniec kwartału ceny transakcyjne mieszkań RP (P oś) kredytowa dostępność mieszkania ważona x 1 (P oś) Note: */supply = surplus of housing supply in 6 largest markets in Poland), **/demand= housing loan availability in square meters (x 1). Source: NBP based on REAS. Figure 55 Structure of housing supply and demand* for housing with an area > 5 sq. m, PM in Poland s selected cities 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Note: Figure 54 presents, in percentage terms, a short-term mismatch in the primary market between supply (developers housing offer) and the estimated demand (housing transactions) in terms of the dwelling s size, according to the data from the BaRN database. The mismatch is calculated as the ratio of the share of housing units with usable area of up to 5 square meters offered for sale to the number of transactions involving housing units with a total area of up to 5 square meters (the average figure for the last four quarters). The positive result (above the black line) indicates a surplus of housing of this particular size, whereas the negative result indicates a shortage thereof. Figure 55 is parallel. Figures are parallel, but they concern the secondary market. Figure 56 Structure of housing supply and demand* for housing with an area 5 sq. m, SM in Poland s selected cities 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Figure 57 Structure of housing supply and demand* for housing with an area > 5 sq. m, SM in Poland s selected cities 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Source NBP. Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Gdańsk Gdynia Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław 18 Narodowy Bank Polski

19 II II II II II II II II II II II II IV 211 I II IV 212 I II IV 213 I II IV 214 I IV 27 I IV 28 I IV 29 I IV 21 I IV 211 I IV 212 I IV 213 I IV 214 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 58 Selling time of housing on offer in the primary market in selected cities (number of quarters) Figure 59 Selling time of housing on offer in the secondary market in selected cities (number of quarters) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5 3, Łódź Kraków Poznań Trójmiasto Warszawa Wrocław 6 rynków Note: selling time calculated in quarters as the number of housing units on offer at the end of the quarter in relation to the average sales recorded in the previous year. Source: NBP based on REAS. Warszawa śr. 5M śr. 1M Note: the average of selling time from the last four quarters. 6. Housing policy Figure 6 Upper limits of prices per square meter of housing in the PM within thresholds set under the government-subsidized housing scheme in Poland s largest cities Figure 61 Upper limits of prices per square meter of housing in the PM within thresholds set under the government-subsidized housing scheme in Poland s largest cities Warszawa 6 miast 1 miast Notes to figures 6-61, 63: red lines separate the period without government-subsidized housing schemes. Warszawa Kraków Wrocław Poznań Gdańsk Łódź Narodowy Bank Polski 19

20 I II IV 214 II II II II II II Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Figure 62 Estimated effectiveness of developers housing investment (IRR-Internal Rate of Return) under the MDM housing scheme and without it 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Warszawa MDM Warszawa BaRN Gdańsk MDM Gdańsk BaRN Kraków MDM Kraków BaRN Wrocław MDM Wrocław BaRN Figure 63 Gap in the limit of government-subsidized housing schemes as compared to the median of transaction price per square m of housing in the PM 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% Gdańsk Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław Note: the gap is calculated as the difference of the maximum price (upper limit) in the RNS/MDM government subsidized housing scheme in the primary market in relation to the median of transaction price. The positive difference means that the scheme finances housing with prices exceeding the median, the negative difference means the opposite.. 2 Narodowy Bank Polski

21 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Table 2 Average home prices in the primary market in Gdańsk w yszczególnienie I kw artał 214 r. II kw artał 214 r. III kw artał 214 r. IV kw artał 214 r. I kw artał 215 r. ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne średnia cena (zł/m kw.) dynamika (poprzedni kw artał = 1) 92,7 89,4 12,3 18,7 97,5 97,1 13,5 99,7 13,2 12,9 (taki sam kw artał roku poprzedniego=1) x x x x x x 95,8 94, 16,6 18,2 liczba mieszkań w edług przedziałów : do 4 zł/m kw od 4 1 do 6 zł/m kw od 6 1 do 8 zł/m kw od 8 1 do 1 zł/m kw pow yżej 1 zł/m kw liczba mieszkań ogółem, w tym: do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 8 m kw średnia cena mieszkania (zł/m kw.): do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 8 m kw odchylenie średniej ceny ofertow ej od transakcyjnej: 1,7% x 4,3% x 4,6% x 8,7% x 9,1% x do 4 m kw. 2,3% x,4% x 2,1% x 5,6% x 9,5% x od 41 do 6 m kw. 5,5% x 3,4% x 1,9% x 6,6% x 8,8% x od 61 do 8 m kw. 22,9% x 1,4% x 6,9% x 8,1% x 6,1% x pow yżej 8 m kw. 16,7% x 2,5% x 14,% x 15,8% x 5,2% x Table 3 Average home prices in the secondary market in Gdańsk I kw artał 214 r. II kw artał 214 r. III kw artał 214 r. IV kw artał 214 r. I kw artał 215 r. w yszczególnienie transakcyjn ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e e średnia cena (zł/m kw.) dynamika (poprzedni kw artał = 1) 99,5 99,9 99,5 14,8 96,5 1, 1,3 99,7 11,9 18,2 (taki sam kw artał roku poprzedniego=1) x x x x x x 95,7 14,4 98, 113,1 liczba mieszkań w edług przedziałów : do 4 zł/m kw od 4 1 do 6 zł/m kw od 6 1 do 8 zł/m kw od 8 1 do 1 zł/m kw pow yżej 1 1 zł/m kw liczba mieszkań ogółem, w tym: do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 81 m kw średnia cena mieszkania (zł/m kw.): do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 81 m kw odchylenie średniej ceny ofertow ej od transakcyjnej, w tym: 27,4% x 21,% x 16,6% x 17,3% x 1,4% x do 4 m kw. 24,5% x 22,7% x 14,9% x 14,1% x 18,9% x od 41 do 6 m kw. 25,6% x 17,8% x 15,4% x 18,1% x 8,% x od 61 do 8 m kw. 4,3% x 29,3% x 25,9% x 22,1% x 12,5% x pow yżej 81 m kw. 4,% x 33,8% x 25,5% x 12,% x 1,4% x Narodowy Bank Polski 21

22 Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 215 Q1 Table 4 Average home prices in the primary market in Kraków Note: revision of average prices since 212 Q 1. Table 5 Average home prices in the secondary market in Kraków Note: revision of average prices since 212 Q 1. w yszczególnienie ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne średnia cena (zł/m kw.) dynamika (poprzedni kw artał = 1) (taki sam kw artał roku poprzedniego=1) I kw artał 214 r. II kw artał 214 r. III kw artał 214 r. IV kw artał 214 r. I kw artał 215 r. 15,7 13,8 99,4 12,9 96,6 96,7 14,5 95,8 11,1 12,4 11,7 11,2 12,7 98, 12,4 11,3 16, 99, 11,4 97,7 liczba mieszkań w edług przedziałów : do 4 zł/m kw od 4 1 do 6 zł/m kw od 6 1 do 8 zł/m kw od 8 1 do 1 zł/m kw pow yżej 1 zł/m kw liczba mieszkań ogółem, w tym: do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 8 m kw średnia cena mieszkania (zł/m kw.): do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 8 m kw odchylenie średniej ceny ofertow ej od transakcyjnej: 7,9% x 4,2% x 4,1% x 13,4% x 12,% x do 4 m kw. 9,9% x 3,7% x 5,3% x 11,5% x 11,8% x od 41 do 6 m kw. 6,3% x 4,3% x 6,3% x 12,6% x 7,8% x od 61 do 8 m kw. 9,% x 3,2% x 1,2% x 16,% x 17,3% x pow yżej 8 m kw. 24,4% x 11,1% x -4,2% x 12,8% x 18,7% x w yszczególnienie I kw artał 214 r. II kw artał 214 r. III kw artał 214 r. IV kw artał 214 r. I kw artał 215 r. ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne ofertow e transakcyjne średnia cena (zł/m kw.) dynamika (poprzedni kw artał = 1) (taki sam kw artał roku poprzedniego=1) 13,3 98,4 98,9 13,6 99,4 99,9 13,3 98,4 12,5 16,2 11,7 96,6 13, 14,5 1,9 1,8 14,9 1,1 14,1 18,1 liczba mieszkań w edług przedziałów : do 4 zł/m kw od 4 1 do 6 zł/m kw od 6 1 do 8 zł/m kw od 8 1 do 1 zł/m kw pow yżej 1 1 zł/m kw liczba mieszkań ogółem, w tym: do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 81 m kw średnia cena mieszkania (zł/m kw.): do 4 m kw od 41 do 6 m kw od 61 do 8 m kw pow yżej 81 m kw odchylenie średniej ceny ofertow ej od transakcyjnej, w tym: 17,9% x 12,5% x 12,% x 17,6% x 13,4% x do 4 m kw. 15,5% x 7,6% x 1,7% x 16,1% x 13,9% x od 41 do 6 m kw. 2,% x 14,3% x 13,9% x 19,% x 14,8% x od 61 do 8 m kw. 21,6% x 22,2% x 11,6% x 21,9% x 12,3% x pow yżej 81 m kw. 24,1% x -2,1% x 13,4% x - x 3,4% x 22 Narodowy Bank Polski