Climatic and hydrological modelling Analysis and prognosis. Climate diagnosis preliminary results. Irena Otop, Bartłomiej Miszuk, Marzenna Strońska

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1 Climatic and hydrological modelling Analysis and prognosis Climate diagnosis preliminary results Irena Otop, Bartłomiej Miszuk, Marzenna Strońska Bogatynia,

2 FACTORS AFFECTING CLIMATE Circulation factors Radiation factors Geographical factors Anthropogenic factors CLIMATE Global scale Regional scale Local scale 2

3 INFLUENCE OF THE CLIMATE Human Ecosystems Forest ecosystem Water ecosystem Economy Agriculture Transport Tourism Water resources Hydrological regime Weather conditions have a constant influence on ecosystems, water resources, economy and the human organism, causing their adaptation for the actual climate. This 3 adaptation can be disturbed by changes in climatic conditions.

4 CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 212; Seasonal and annual values of coefficient of trends ( o C/1year) of mean air temperature for the KLIMAT Project Sezony Pobrzeża Pojezierza Niziny Wyżyny Sudety Karpaty Polska Zima,4,42,4,31,31,34,38 Wiosna,4,38,35,32,3,38,36 Lato,22,15,15,13,2,25,17 Jesień,8,6,7,1,4,7,6 Rok,27,25,24,19,2,25,24 Source: Limanówka D., i inn., 212, Zmiany i zmienność klimatu od połowy XIX w. W: Projekt KLIMAT, T.1, Wyd. IMGW-PIB Thermal classification Classification of thermal conditions on the basis of the method of Miętus et al., (22) 4

5 CLIMATE VARIABILITY air temperature Mean air temperature - July 21 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 21; 5

6 CLIMATE VARIABILITY air temperature Mean air temperature - March 213 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 213; 6

7 CLIMATE VARIABILITY precipitation Monthly precipitation totals - August 21 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 21; 7

8 CLIMATE VARIABILITY precipitation Monthly precipitation totals November 211 Source: Biuletyn Monitoringu Klimatu Polski, 211; 8

9 Hydrological modelling OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF ACTIVITIES - the climate part of the Neymo project The main goal of the climatic analysis within the Neymo project is a common assesment of variability and changes in climate in the context of their influence on water resources in the transborder Lusatian Neisse basin. Meteorological data Meta data Common database Climate diagnosis Missing data Quality control Completion of database (in case of missing data up to 3% of whole data) Precipitation correction Projections of climate change CEC Potsdam 9

10 PROJECT AREA 1

11 AVAILABLE DATA Daily data for the years from the IMGW-PIB stations Nr Kod stacji Rząd stacji Stacja Temperatura [ C] min śr max Opady [mm] Wilgotność względna [%] Prężność pary wodnej [hpa] prędkość [m/s] Wiatr kierunek Usłonecznie nie [h] Zachmurzenie [-8] Ciśnienie atm. [hpa] Pokrywa śnieżna [cm] 1 31 I Słubice 2 4 I Zielona Góra I Legnica 4 5 I Jelenia Góra 5 51 I Śnieżka III Zgorzelec 7 51 IV Bogatynia IV Jakuszyce IV Szczawno Zdrój V Sobolice V Łęknica V Kaniów V Gubin V Bierna V Leśna V Gryfów Śląski V Sulików V Siekierczyn V Węgliniec V Przejęsław V Kościelna Wieś V Straszów V Żagań V Stypułów V Sieniawka V Bukówka V Rębiszów V Pilchowice 11

12 COMMON DATABASE CURRENT CLIMATE STATE Climate diagnosis Climatic indices ECA&D precipitation thermal drought complex Indices assessed on the basis of the: 1. Values of percentiles e.g. 9 i 1 percentile (Percentile-based indices) 2. Values of absolute extremes (Absolute indices) 3. Threshold values (Threshold indices) 4. Duration of phenomena (Duration indices) Analysis of temporal variability Evaluation of changes in trends Analysis of spatial variability Extreme values, range of changes, deviations in comparison to mean values Determination of the trend and the rate of changes in the period Assessment of differences in particular subregions Mean values, deviations of mean values, extreme values, frequency and duration of the events concerning thermal and precipitation anomalies, etc. 12

13 THERMAL INDICES Name Index Description Unit Mean air temperature TG Mean of daily/monthly air temperature C Minimum air temperature TN Mean of daily minimum air temperature C Maximum air temperature TX Mean of daily maximum air temperature C Daily temperature range DTR TX - TN C Extreme temperature range ETR TX-TN (absolute extremes) C Begin of thermal growing season GSB TG >= 5 C at min 6 days date End of thermal growing season GSE TG <= 5 C at min 6 days after 1 st of July date Growing season length GSL End GS - start GS days 13

14 PRECIPITATION INDICES Name Index Description Unit Precipitation totals RR Precipitation sum (RR) mm Day with precipitation RR1 No. of days with RR,1mm days RR1 No. of days with RR 1,mm days Intensity of precipitation SDII Simple daily intensity index (sum RR/ RR1) mm/day Heavy precipitation days R9p R1mm No. of days with RR > 9th percentile of RR No. of days with RR 1mm days Very heavy precipitation days R95p R2mm No. of days with RR > 95th percentile of RR No. of days with RR 2mm days Most extreme precipitation days R99p No. of days with RR > 99th percentile of RR day Precipitation fraction due to very wet days Precipitation fraction due to extremely wet days Consecutive wet days Maximum 1-day precipitation totals Maximum 5-day precipitation totals R9pT R95pT CWD Fraction of annual / seasonal total precipitation due to events exceeding the 9 th percentile Fraction of annual / seasonal total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95 th percentile Maximum no. of consecutive days with RR 1,mm RX1day Highest 1-day precipitation amount RX5day Highest 5-day precipitation amount % % days mm mm 14

15 ATMOSPHERIC DROUGHT INDICES Name Index Description Unit Climatic water balance CWB RR-PET mm Standardized precipitation index Dry periods frequency Dry periods duration SPI-3 DPF DPD Based on the probability distribution of precipitation - Frequency of RR < 1mm on minimal 11 consecutive days - Duration of RR < 1mm on minimal 11 consecutive days days 15

16 COMPLEX INDICES Name Index Description Unit Warm/dry days WD No. of days with TG> 75th percentile TG and RR < 25th percentile RR (5 day mean) days Warm/ wet days WW No. of days with TG> 75th percentile TG and RR > 75th percentile RR (5 day mean) days Potential evapotranspiration PET Penman-Monteith formula mm 16

17 Preliminary results - thermal indices Temperatura powietrza / Air temperature Mean annual air temperature ( ) Mean annual air temperature ( o C) Period Słubice 22 m a.s.l. Zielona Góra 192 m a.s.l. Legnica 122 m a.s.l. Jelenia Góra 342 m a.s.l. Śnieżka 163 m a.s.l

18 Preliminary results - THERMAL INDICES Mean annual air temperature ( ) y =,295x + 8,1481 R² =, y =,244x + 7,431 R² =,13 [o C] y =,333x +,1446 R² =,25 Zielona Góra 192 m npm Jelenia Góra 342 m npm Śnieżka 163 m npm The warmest year The coldest year Zielona Góra [195 m a.s.l.] 1.1 o C (2) 6.8 o C (1996) Jelenia Góra [342 m a.s.l.] 9. o C (2) 5.6 o C (1996) Śnieżka [163 m a.s.l.] 2.2 o C (2; 26) -.9 o C (198) 18

19 o C Preliminary WSKAŹNIKI results - THERMAL INDICES Extreme values of air temperature ( ) Zielona Góra Tmax 36,8 o C Tmin -22,2 o C 14.1.; o C TNa TNa TXa TXa Jelenia Góra Tmax 35,8 o C Tmin -31,8 o C 8.1.; 19

20 Preliminary results Precipitation indices for selected meteorological stations Sobolice 15 m npm Śląsko-Łużycka Nizina Zielona Góra 192 m npm Wzniesienia Zielonogórskie Siekierczyn 255 m npm Pogórze Zachodniosudeckie Jelenia Góra 342 m npm Sudety Zachodnie Sobolice Siekierczyn

21 [mm] [mm] [mm] Preliminary results - PRECIPITATION INDICES Annual precipitation totals in the period Zielona Góra [192 m n.p.m.] [mm] Sobolice [ 15 m n.p.m.] Jelenia Góra [342 m n.p.m.] Siekierczyn [ 255 m n.p.m.]

22 Wyniki Preliminary wstępne results - PRECIPITATION INDICES Monthly precipitation totals ( ) Zielona Góra [192 m a.s.l.] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Sobolice [15 m a.s.l.] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII max średnie min [mm] [mm] max średnie min Jelenia Góra [342 m a.s.l.] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII max średnie min max średnie min 22 Siekierczyn [ 255 m a.s.l.]

23 Preliminary results PRECIPITATION INDICES Number of days with daily precipitation 1. mm ( )

24 [liczba dni] [liczba dni] Preliminary results PRECIPITATION INDICES Number of days with daily precipitation 1. mm ( ) Zielona Góra [192 m n.p.m.] [liczba dni] Sobolice [15 m n.p.m.] [liczba dni] Jelenia Góra [342 m n.p.m.] Siekierczyn [255 m n.p.m.]

25 Preliminary results Maximum daily precipitation totals in the years Jakuszyce - 24,3 mm Szczawno Zdr 178,6 mm Bogatynia 16,2 mm

26 [mm] [mm] [mm] [mm] Wyniki Preliminary wstępne results PRECIPITATION INDICES Maximum daily precipitation totals ( ) Zielona Góra [192 m npm] Sobolice [15 m npm] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII RX1day RX1day Jelenia Góra [342 m npm] Siekierczyn [255 m npm] I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII RX1day RX1day 26

27 [mm] [mm] Preliminary results PRECIPITATION INDICES Maximum 5-day precipitation totals ( ) [mm] Zielona Góra [192 m n.p.m.] [mm] Sobolice [15 m n.p.m.] Jelenia Góra [342 m n.p.m.] Siekierczyn [255 m n.p.m.]

28 prawdopodobieństwo standaryzacja Wyniki wstępne Preliminary results DROUGHT INDEX SPI - Standardized Precipitation Index Standardized precipitation index SPI for detection and evaluation of drought periods intensity for drought monitoring (e.g. in USA, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland) enables an objective and comparable assessment for various climatic conditions in a various time scale calculated on the basis of multiannual precipitation series for a given time period (month, season, half-year, ) standardized precipitation sum homogeneous precipitation series are standardized f(p) normalizacja wysokość opadu SPI Bardo 28

29 Wyniki wstępne Preliminary results DROUGHT INDEX Values of the SPI-3 ( ) Sobolice 15 m npm SPI DROUGHT CLASSES Original [McKee i in., ] SPI3 Jelenia Góra 342 m npm mild [ - -1) moderate [ ,5) strong [-1,5 - -2) extreme <= SPI3 29

30 Summary Mean annual air temperature is characterized by an increasing trend in the period Extreme annual values of minimum air temperature are characterized by significantly higher year-to-year variability in comparison to the values of extreme maximum air temperature Annual precipitation totals are characterized by high year-toyear variability; there are no significance trends in the period Number of days with precipitation >1, mm is characterized by an increasing trend in the case of the stations located in the southern part of the region In terms of extreme precipitations, there are no statistically significant trends observed 3

31 Thank you for your attention