Chapter 9 Concluding Remarks to Part II

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1 Chapter 9 Concluding Remarks to Part II Rajmund Przybylak Historical climatology has gained the status of a separate scientific discipline in recent years. The extraordinarily dynamic development of research in this field is closely connected to research into future climate scenarios, the past being the key to the future. Credible scenarios of future climates cannot be created without information about past climatic changes and the factors which affected them. First and foremost a knowledge of the range of natural climate variability is necessary, and this can be obtained only through the analysis of information concerning the weather and climate from the pre-industrial period (i.e. before 1850). Knowledge in this field is also necessary for the purposes of evaluating the potential contribution of natural factors in current and future climate changes. Furthermore, it allows us to answer unequivocally the question of how big the contribution of the anthropogenic factors is in these changes. A broader knowledge of climates of the past is also necessary to validate mathematical climatic models. If they simulate past climates well, it is possible to assume with great probability that simulations of future climates will also be credible. Moreover, the climate, particularly in its extreme manifestations, affects considerably the changes of both the natural and manmade environments (it is enough to recall the flood of 1997 in Poland or the extent of damages done by tropical cyclones in New Orleans and in Florida in 2005). Therefore, without a knowledge of climate changes it is not possible to explain credibly the extent of, and reasons for, the changes in man s environment (both natural and manmade) in the past millennium. A knowledge of the climates of past centuries has an inestimable practical value and thus paleoclimatic research, particularly that including the past millennium, should be conducted as broadly as possible. Polish science ought not to shirk its responsibilities in this respect, particularly considering that our knowledge in this field for the territory of Poland despite the finding of various research projects in recent years is still insufficient and lags far behind comparable research initiatives in other European countries. This is testified to in an article by Brázdil et al. (2005) titled Historical Climatology R. Przybylak (*) Department of Climatology, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Gagarina , Toruń, Poland R. Przybylak et al. (eds.), The Polish Climate in the European Context: An Historical Overview, DOI / _9, Springer Science + Business Media B.V

2 228 R. Przybylak in Europe: The State of the Art which summarises the state of knowledge on historical climatology in the continent as a whole. From Polish perspective, further studies, partly published in Polish language and in national journals, could be added to extensive list of quoted references (e.g. Maruszczak 1991; Sadowski 1991; Wójcik et al. 1999, 2000; Majorowicz et al. 2001, 2004; Przybylak et al. 2001, 2004; Kotarba 2004). As mentioned earlier, discovering the natural variability of the climate is of significance for the detection of climate changes and the factors affecting them, the scale of which can only be precisely and credibly determined through the use of indirect data for the past millennium. At present we have many climatic reconstructions at our disposal for selected regions of the world (e.g. Pfister 1999; Rácz 1999; Proctor et al. 2000; Glaser 2001; Brázdil 2002; Briffa et al. 2002a, b; Luterbacher et al. 2004; Pauling et al. 2006; see also Part 1), as well as for the Northern Hemisphere and the earth as a whole (e.g. Mann et al. 1998, 1999, 2008; Jones et al. 2001; McIntyre and McKitrick 2003; Moberg et al. 2005; Juckes et al. 2007). Our present knowledge of the climate changes in Poland over the past millennium is varied. For obvious reasons it is much better for the period of instrumental observations. In the 1990s considerable effort was expended on obtaining homogeneous air temperature series. As a result there now exist at least ten such series (Górski and Marciniak 1992; Miętus 1996, 1998; Głowicki 1997; Trepińska 1997; Lorenc 2000; Vizi et al. 2000/2001; see also Chapter 5). The most valuable of them are the series from Warsaw (from 1779) and from Cracow (from 1792). The high correlation of air temperature in the area of Poland allows us to use the last two temperature series to characterise thermal conditions throughout Poland. In recent decades knowledge of the climate history of Poland has increased considerably. This can also be said for our climatic knowledge of the so-called preinstrumental period, though very seldom does this knowledge go back further than the past 500 years (cf. e.g. Michalczewski 1981, 1988; Maruszczak 1988, 1991; Sadowski 1991; Bednarz 1996; Wójcik et al. 1999, 2000; Bokwa et al. 2001; Limanówka 2001; Majorowicz et al. 2001, 2004; Przybylak et al. 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005; Oliński 2002a, b; Kaczka 2004; Kotarba 2004; Niedźwiedź 2004; Przybylak 2007; see also Chapters 5 8). As may be seen from this brief review, our knowledge of the climate of Poland of the last millennium has increased considerably, though it is far from sufficient and is certainly too low in relation to the capabilities that Polish scientist possess. In comparison with leading European countries in this area (e.g. the Czech Republic, Switzerland) our knowledge of past climate changes in Poland is lagging behind. This stems from the fact that awareness among Polish researchers of the importance of this subject for scientific, social and economic development is still too low, although progress has been evident in recent years related to the increasing publicity given to the issue of global warming. On this point the need to intensify climate research (including paleoclimatic research) is frequently mentioned, as is the significant role of such work for the progress of the civilized world. The dearth of research about climate changes in Poland in recent centuries prompted scholars at the Nicolaus Copernicus University Department of

3 9 Concluding Remarks to Part II 229 Climatology, to organize an international conference in Toruń (Poland) in October The main its aim was to mobilise Polish and international researchers to investigate the history of weather and climate in Poland. The results of some of the resulting research efforts, published in Parts 1 and 3, testify to the success of the initiative our knowledge in this area is now markedly greater, though a lot of work remains to be done. References Bednarz Z (1996) June July temperature variation for the Babia Góra National Park, Southern Poland, for the period Zesz Nauk UJ, Prace Geogr 102: Bokwa A, Limanówka D, Wibig J (2001) Pre-instrumental weather observations in Poland in the 16th and 17th centuries. In: Jones PD et al (eds) History and climate. Memories of the future? Kluwer/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston, MA/London Brázdil R (2002) Patterns of climate in Central Europe since Viking times. In: Wefer G, Berger W, Behre K-E, Jansen E (eds) Climate development and history of the North Atlantic Realm. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg Brázdil R, Pfister C, Wanner H, von Storch H, Luterbacher J (2005) Historical climatology in Europe the state of the art. Clim Change 70: Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2002a) Tree-ring width and density data around the Northern Hemisphere: Part 2, Spatio-temporal variability and associated climate patterns. Holocene 12: Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG, Vaganov EA (2002b) Treering width and density data around the Northern Hemisphere: Part 1, Local and regional climate signals. Holocene 12: Glaser R (2001) Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas Jahr Wetter, Klima, Katastrophen. Primus Verlag, Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, Darmstadt Głowicki B (1997) Wieloletnia seria pomiarów temperatury powietrza na Śnieżce. In Mat. sesji nauk Geoekologiczne problemy Karkonoszy, 1, Przysiek, Wyd. Acarus, Poznań Górski T, Marciniak K (1992) Temperatura powietrza w Puławach w ciągu lat I. Średnia temperatura miesięczna. Pam. Puławski. Prace IUNG 100:7 26 Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2001) The evolution of climate over the last millennium. Science 292: Juckes MN, Allen MR, Briffa KR, Esper J, Hegerl GC, Boberg A, Osborn TJ, Weber SL (2007) Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation. Clim Past 3: Kaczka RJ (2004) Dendrochronologiczny zapis zmian klimatu Tatr od schyłku Małej Epoki Lodowej (na przykładzie Doliny Gąsienicowej. In: Kotarba A (ed) Rola Małej Epoki Lodowej w przekształcaniu Środowiska przyrodniczego Tatr. Prace Geogr 197: Kotarba A (2004) Zdarzenia geomorfologiczne w Tatrach Wysokich podczas Małej Epoki Lodowej. In: Kotarba A (ed) Rola Małej Epoki Lodowej w przekształcaniu środowiska przyrodniczego Tatr. Prace Geogr 197:9 55 Limanówka D (2001) Rekonstrukcja warunków klimatycznych Krakowa w pierwszej połowie XVI wieku. Mat Bad IMGW, Ser Meteorologia Lorenc (2000) Studia nad 220-letnią ( ) serią temperatury powietrza w Warszawie oraz ocena jej wiekowych tendencji. Mat Bad IMGW, Ser Meteorologia 31:3 104 Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since Science 303: Majorowicz J, Šafanda J, Przybylak R, Wójcik G (2001) Rekonstrukcja zmian temperatury powierzchni gruntu w Polsce w ostatnim 500-leciu na podstawie profili geotermicznych. Przegl Geofiz 4:

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