Energy policy of Poland until Marek Sciazko

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Agnieszka Janowska
8 lat temu
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1 Energy policy of Poland until 2030 Marek Sciazko 1

2 Motivation 2

3 Hard coal deposits 3

4 Hard coal production 4

5 Brown coal deposits 5

6 Brown coal production in Poland 6

7 Energy policy of Poland is consistent with the energy policy of the European Union and its objectives.... answers the main challenges facing the Polish energy sector. 7

8 Main challenges High demand for final energy Inadequate generation and transmission infrastructure Significant dependence on external supplier for natural gas Commitment on environmental and climate protection Almost full dependence on external supply of oil 8

dependence on external supplier for natural gas Commitment on

9 The priorities Energy efficiency Reducing environmental impact 2030 Security of fuel and energy supply Enhancement for renewable energy development Development of nuclear energy 9

10 Energy efficiency End The main targets: To achieve zero-energy economic growth, i.e. economic growth with no extra demand for primary energy Reducing the energy intensity of Polish economy to the EU-15 level (in 2005) The above targets will be realized through: Reducing energy consumption Enhancing the efficiency of generation Decreasing transmission losses Main measures: Setting the national energy efficiency action plan Introducing a systemic mechanism to support for investment in energy saving (white certificates) Stimulating development of cogeneration through support mechanisms (yellow and red certificates) Introducing energy performance certificates for buildings and apartments Model role of public sector in energy saving activities Supporting investments and research in new solutions and technologies Informational and educational campaigns 10

energy efficiency action plan Introducing a systemic mechanism to support for investment in energy saving (white certificates) Stimulating development of cogeneration through support mechanisms

11 Energy security Polish energy security should be based on: Domestic energy resources Diversification of oil and gas supplies Development of electricity generation capacity Development of transmission infrastructure Main measures: Retaining sufficient level of mining capacity Extending the natural gas and crude oil transmission system and storage capacities Reconstruction and reinforcement of the existing power grid and building new ones Supporting research and development of technologies providing to use coal for liquid and gas fuels production Development of energy infrastructure supported by European Funds 11

crude oil transmission system and storage capacities Reconstruction and reinforcement of the existing power grid and building new ones Supporting research

12 Energy intensity 12

13 13

14 The demand for primary energy by carriers (%) 14

15 Primary energy break down 15

Polish electrical energy market structure Electrical energy generation and consumption in Poland* 2009 2010 % increase Electrical energy generation [TWh] 150.9 156.3 3.

16 Polish electrical energy market structure Electrical energy generation and consumption in Poland* % increase Electrical energy generation [TWh] Electrical energy consumption [TWh] Biggest power generators in Poland, data for 2009* Generator Installed capacity [MW] Generation [TWh] PGE Tauron Enea Energa * Own study based on publicly available information. *)

2 Biggest power generators in Poland, data for 2009* Generator Installed capacity [MW] Generation [TWh] PGE 12 245.00 53.

17 Electrical energy generation vs. demand 40 [GW] PODAŻ Supply POPYT Demand 55% 3% 2% 5% As % 30 POWER SHORTAGE Lignite Natural gas Renewable energy sources Hard coal Heating oil 20 [year] *) Chancellery of the Prime Minister Raport Polska 2030, July 2009 *) ARE (The Energy Market Agency ) S.A. Forecast Update of Fuels and Electricity Demand to 2030,

Natural gas Renewable energy sources Hard coal Heating oil 20 [year] *) Chancellery of the

18 Ongoing and planned new capacity installation projects in Poland 6000 [MWe] 5000 Elektrownia Północ PKN Orlen 4000 GDE Suez 3000 Fortum ZA Puławy 2000 Enea 1000 Energa Tauron [year] PGE [MWe] [MWe] * Own study based on PricewaterhouseCoopers [year] 18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [year] PGE 20000 [MWe] 15000 10000 5000 [MWe] 8000 7000

19 Net new capacity structure with regard to electrical energy sources in Poland [MW] *) ARE (The Energy Market Agency ) S.A. Forecast Update of Fuels and Electricity Demand to 2030,

20 YES to 3 x 20 NO to further reduction of emission levels Conclusion: it is necessary to draw up separate Impact Assessments for particular Member States Conclusion: due to significant differences between the Member States the impact of the Roadmap 2050 will also vary to a considerable degree. Avaialable income in Ref_Lib Avaialable income in Ref_Con Avaialable income in Ref_Dec and Eff_Dec Electricity expenses in Ref_Lib Electricity expenses in Ref_Con Electricity expenses in Ref_Dec Available income [zł/person/month] Electricity expenses [zł/person/month] * KIG Preliminary Assessment of the Impact of the Emission Reduction Goals Set in the EC Document Roadmap 2050 on the Power Sector, Economy and Households in Poland SYNTHESIS, Electricity expenses in Eff_Dec [year] 20

Avaialable income in Ref_Lib Avaialable income in Ref_Con Avaialable income in Ref_Dec and Eff_Dec Electricity expenses in Ref_Lib Electricity expenses in Ref_Con Electricity expenses in Ref_Dec

21 Conclusions The main objective of energy policy is security of supply. In this field an efficient and effective management of coal deposits located within the territory of Poland is a primary goal. State energy policy assumes using coal as the main fuel for the power industry in order to ensure an adequate level of energy security of the country. Specific objectives in the field are as follows: Ensuring energy security of the country by meeting domestic demand for coal, ensuring stable supplies to customers and the required qualitative parameters; Use of coal in the energy industry by application of efficient and low-emission technologies, including coal gasification and processing it into liquid or gas fuels; Using modern technologies in the coal mining sector to enhance competitiveness, work safety, environmental protection, and to establish the basis for technological and scientific development; Maximum use of methane released when extracting coal in mines. 21

22 Dilemma of investment in energy capacity Marek Sciazko 22

23 Position of TAURON TAURON jest drugą największą firmą energetyczną w Polsce patrząc na główne obszary łańcucha wartości Udział w rynku, 2009, w procentach Wytwarzanie Dystrybucja Sprzedaż Największe firmy energetyczne ŹRÓDŁO: ARE; URE; CIRE; prasa 23

24 Expected energy shortage Minimalna rezerwa mocy w KSE do roku 2020 Minimalna rezerwa mocy 1 w Krajowym Systemie Energetycznym do 2020 roku, w procentach Od roku 2018, Krajowy System Energetyczny wchodzi w permanentny niedobór mocy? Z uwagi na dlugi cykl inwestycji w energetyce (minimum 4 lata dla technologii gazowych), inwestycje powinny byc rozpoczete juz dzis W latach rosnace zapotrzebowanie szczytowe moze przekroczyc dostepne w systemie moce ? Drobne niedobory mocy w latach moga zostac pokryte wzrostem w OZE lub zmiana planowania remontów 1 Rezerwa definiowana jako stosunek niewykorzystanej mocy dyspozycyjnej do mocy osiagalnej 24

25 Key assumptions Strategy goals depend upon investment in particular technologies and must be designed with the investment risks, not just technology costs. This is not because concern with costs is wrong but because costs are only one part of the equation. The low investment cost today or low fuel cost can change tomorrow due to policy driven penalization of carbon intensity of energy. A diverse and/or low carbon generation mix is needed and a modification of investment strategy is under the development. The delivery of government policy goals in the electricity sector requires investment in technologies that differ from those that would be delivered by current market forces alone. Policy goals such as security of supply, reducing CO2 emissions or decreasing price volatility might favor nuclear power, coal with CO2 capture, or renewable energy. However, in Poland the market will continue to keep coal based generation because of local availability of that fuel and favor gas fired electricity generation for some part of new capacity. 25

26 Levelized cost of generation for leading technologies 26

27 Risks affecting cash-flow 27

28 Marginal cost effect on electricity price Electricity prices include a time of day component, since generation must be increased and decreased as demands fluctuate. The result of this is that the market determines the dispatch of plants according to their cost characteristics and the spot price of electricity at any given time of day is set by the short-run marginal cost of the last generator to be dispatched (i.e. the most expensive) at that time on the system. 28

29 Short-run marginal costs include all variable costs, including fuel costs, variable operating and maintenance costs, CO2 and other environmental costs borne by the electricity producer. They exclude fixed costs such as capital depreciation and fixed operating and maintenance costs. Hence, the lowest short run marginal cost plants are used first, and most of the time. Such plants, often referred to as baseload generators, are usually high capital cost but low or zero fuel cost technologies such as nuclear power and renewables. The newest and most efficient fossil fuel plants may also run on baseload. Fuel prices and plant efficiencies for the system marginal plant(s) determine the short run price of wholesale electricity. This assumed that either coal or gas plant would be on the margin of the electricity system depending on the fuel and CO2 price. 29

30 Dywersyfikacja portfela Energy wytwórczego mix wg. of zainstalowanej TAURON mocy Rozwój portfela wytwórczego Grupy TAURON Udzial technologii wg mocy zainstalowanej, W procentach (GW) 100% = 5,6 ~2 ~98 ~3 5,4 ~0.01 ~92 ~2 ~2 ~1 ~6 ~1 5,9 ~0.01 ~83 ~2 ~2 ~6 Biogaz Biomasa 6,6 ~0.01 ~2 ~6 ~11 ~15 ~4 ~8 Wodna Wiatr (ladowy i morski) 6,7 ~0.01 ~17 ~15 ~2 ~4 6,9 ~0.01 ~2 ~10 ~17 ~15 ~3 Gaz ziemny Energia Jadrowa 6,9 ~0.01 ~2 ~11 ~16 ~15 ~3 Wegiel Kamienny (nowe) Wegiel Kamienny (obecne) 7,0 7,9 ~0.01 ~0.01 ~2 ~3 ~2 ~3 ~12 ~12 ~16 ~14 ~10 ~14 ~13 ~62 ~54 ~53 ~53 ~52 ~46 Rok Horyzont ? Wprowadzenie gazu ziemnego? Intensyfikacja budowy mocy wiatrowych? Wprowadzenie biogazu oraz biomasy Horyzont ? Dalsza rozbudowa mocy wiatrowych oraz gazu ziemnego? Rozpoczeta fizyczna budowa elektrowni jadrowej przed rokiem Horyzont ? Uruchomienie elektrowni jadrowej (zastapienie czesci bloków weglowych)? Rozbudowa gazu i e. wiatrowej do udzialów 10-15% zaleznie od warunków rynkowych W przypadku bloków weglowych wystepuje wspólspalanie biomasy, którego poziom zgodnie z zalozeniami powinien wzrastac. Pozwala to na zwiekszenie poziomu dywersyfikacji paliw 30

31 Investment strategy 31

32 Conclusions Coal based capacity will amount to ca. 3.7 GWe by 2020 Biomass will bring a new ash utilization challenge Co-firing of biomass does not affect further ash properties Coal ash will be available New applications for fluid ash needed 32

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