AN ANALYSIS OF THE NEW TRACTORS DISTRIBUTION LOGISTICS IN THE ASPECT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION PROGRAMMES FOR SUPPORTING AGRICULTURE MODERNIZATION

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1 Journal of Cenral European Agriculure, 2012, 13(4), p DOI: /JCEA01/ AN ANALYSIS OF THE NEW TRACTORS DISTRIBUTION LOGISTICS IN THE ASPECT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION PROGRAMMES FOR SUPPORTING AGRICULTURE MODERNIZATION ANALIZA LOGISTYKI DYSTRYBUCJI NOWYCH CIĄGNIKÓW W ASPEKCIE PROGRAMÓW UNII EUROPEJSKIEJ WSPIERAJĄCYCH MODERNIZACJĘ ROLNICTWA Sławomir JUŚCIŃSKI Deparmen of Power Engineering and Vehicles, Insiue of Logisics and Enerprise Managemen, Universiy of Life Sciences in Lublin, 1 Poniaowskiego Sree, Lublin, Poland, of corresponding auhor: slawomir.juscinski@up.lublin.pl ABSTRACT The presen aricle conains an analysis of issues concerning logisics of agriculural racors disribuion. Programmes and he level of uilizaion of means from Srucural Funds of he European Union for modernizaion of equipmen of agriculural farms in Poland have been presened. Srucure of agriculural racors marke in Poland and he issues on domesic selecive disribuion of leading producers of agriculural racors have been characerized. The achieved resuls of research on he sales level of agriculural racors have been presened. The research has been carried ou a he Trade Deparmen of he auhorized disribuor of racors and agriculural machines. The research cycle covered he years The research resuls have been saisically prepared using he R programme for Windows (version ) and defining rend, random flucuaions and seasonal flucuaions. The ime schedules of sales were analysed in he aspec of subsidizing purchases from he Srucural Funds of he European Union and he agriechnical procedures calendar. Key-words: agriculural racors disribuion, disribuion logisics, modernizaion of equipmen of agriculural farms, Srucural Funds of he European Union STRESZCZENIE W arykule zaprezenowano analizę zagadnień doyczących logisyki dysrybucji ciągników rolniczych. Przedsawiono programy i poziom wykorzysania środków z Funduszy Srukuralnych Unii Europejskiej na modernizacją wyposażenia gospodarsw rolniczych w Polsce. Scharakeryzowano srukurę rynku ciągników rolniczych w Polsce oraz zagadnienia krajowej dysrybucji selekywnej wiodących producenów ciągników rolniczych. Zaprezenowano uzyskane wyniki badań 1 850

2 poziomu ilościowego sprzedaży ciągników rolniczych. Badania zrealizowano w Dziale Handlowym auoryzowanego dysrybuora ciągników i maszyn rolniczych. Cykl badań obejmował laa Wyniki badań opracowano saysycznie przy wykorzysaniu programu R wersja dla Windows, wyznaczając rend, wahania przypadkowe i wahania sezonowe. Rozkłady czasowe sprzedaży poddano analizie w aspekcie dofinansowania zakupów z Funduszy Srukuralnych Unii Europejskiej i kalendarza zabiegów agroechnicznych. Słowa kluczowe: dysrybucja ciągników rolniczych, logisyka dysrybucji, modernizacją wyposażenia gospodarsw rolniczych, Fundusze Srukuralne Unii Europejskiej STRESZCZENIE SZCZEGÓŁOWE Na przesrzeni osaniej dekady logisyka dysrybucji nowych ciągników rolniczych w Polsce, dososowana zosała do zmieniających się porzeb resrukuryzowanych obszarów wiejskich. Przeprowadzono analizę srukury rynku ciągników rolniczych w Polsce oraz analizę programów Unii Europejskiej finansujących modernizację gospodarsw rolniczych w laach Zbadano i poddano analizie srukurę krajowych sysemów dysrybucji selekywnej ciągników wiodących producenów. Na osanim eapie przygoowań do członkoswa w Unii Europejskiej, powszechny spis rolny przeprowadzony w Polsce w 2002 r. powierdził, że rolnicy użykują 1338,7 ys. ciągników, a saysyczny reprezenan ej grupy pojazdów miał 22 laa. Powszechny spis rolny przeprowadzony w 2010 r., wykazał użykowanie na erenie Polski 1466,3 ys. ciągników rolniczych (Tabela 1). W 2007 r. jedynie co rzeci sprzedawany ciągnik był nowy, naomias w 2010 r. pojazdy fabrycznie nowe sanowiły już połowę kupowanych w Polsce. Specjalny Przedakcesyjny Program Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich (SAPARD) uworzony w celu pomocy krajom sarającym się o członkoswo w UE orzymał budże w wysokości 1084 mln euro (4795 mln zł). Dopłay dla beneficjenów zrealizowano w laach 2005 i 2006, a elemenem dominującym w umowach był zakup nowych ciągników rolniczych. Wsąpienie Polski do Unii Europejskiej oznaczało konieczność wzrosu sawki podaku VAT z 0% do 22% na pojazdy i maszyny rolnicze. W laach insrumeny poliyki rolnej były realizowane w Polsce w ramach Narodowego Planu Rozwoju. Jednym z działań był Sekorowy Program Operacyjny (SPO). Ogółem na porzeby rolników przeznaczono 1784 mln euro ze środków UE i budżeu krajowego. Kolejnym działaniem jes Program Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich (PROW) na laa Środki finansowe na realizację całego programu przekraczają 17 mld euro (70 mld zł). W okresie od 2007 r. do lisopada 2011 r. w ramach ej grupy środków rolnicy zakupili ciągniki rolnicze. W warunkach polskich srukura firm dealerskich odzwierciedla zróżnicowanie ilości gospodarsw i ich wielkość w poszczególnych wojewódzwach (Tabela 2 i 3). Generalną zasadą jes o, że marki producenów krajowych: PRONAR, POL-MOT/URSUS, FARMTRAC i FARMER oraz ciągniki w niższej klasie cenowej: ZETOR i BELARUS mają sieć sprzedaży z większą ilością auoryzowanych firm dealerskich. Zagęszczenie punków sprzedaży waha się od kilku do nawe kilkunasu firm na erenie jednego wojewódzwa. Koncerny amerykańskie JOHN DEERE i CLAAS oraz europejskie Same, Deuz Fahr, Lamborghini, FENDT i Massey Ferguson zasosowały koncepcję sieci sprzedaży, kóra sandardowo na erenie wojewódzwa posiada jednego lub dwóch przedsawicieli. Poencjalny nabywca ma obecnie do dyspozycji zróżnicowaną 2 851

3 cenowo oferę rynkową ponad 450 modeli o mocy kw wywarzanych przez producenów krajowych i zagranicznych (Tabela 4). Badania w laach objęły srukurę sprzedaży ogółem 1012 sz. fabrycznie nowych ciągników rolniczych (Rys. 1). Wybrane do przedsiębiorswo prowadzi od 25 la działalność dysrybucyjną i serwisową na obszarze Polski środkowo-wschodniej. Analizę saysyczną szeregu czasowego, kórym jes ilość sprzedanych ciągników, przeprowadzono w celu określenie charakeru badanego zjawiska. Sprzedaż w sekorze pojazdów rolniczych w badanym okresie obejmowała marki: JOHN DEERE, ZETOR, Same Deuz Fahr Group (SDFG) oraz PRONAR. Srukura sprzedaży nowych ciągników rolniczych w Polsce charakeryzowała się zmiennością popyu (Rys. 2). Wysępowały duże różnice w ilości sprzedanych pojazdów na przesrzeni poszczególnych miesięcy w kolejnych laach. Zmienny był również popy przy porównaniu kolejnych rocznych wyników sprzedaży dla okresu objęego badaniem. Na przełomie la 2003 i 2004 wysąpił rend rosnący, wymuszony zbliżającą się akcesją (Rys. 3). Wzros sawki podaku VAT zakończył okres bardzo wysokiego popyu. Przez cały 2005 r. i okresowo w 2006 r. był rend rosnący dla sprzedaży ciągników rolniczych z powodu wypła z programu SAPARD. Trend malejący w 2007 r. był zbieżny w czasie z brakiem wypła z funduszy unijnych. Kolejne ransze wypła w ramach Programu Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich (PROW) powodowały rend okresowo rosnący w laach Sprzedaż nowych ciągników uzyskała dzięki dopłaom unijnym poziom najwyższy od momenu akcesji Polski do Unii Europejskiej. Niejednorodność srukury popyu na przesrzeni kolejnych miesięcy w laach pokazują wahania przypadkowe. Wysokim wzrosom sprzedaży w poszczególnych miesiącach roku owarzyszyły spadki popyu do poziomu minimalnego w kolejnych okresach, co było zjawiskiem niekorzysnym dla funkcjonowania logisyki dysrybucji (Rys. 4). Badania rynku powierdziły, że uruchamianie kolejnych ranszy dopła przez Agencję Resrukuryzacji i Modernizacji Rolnicwa powodowało skokowy wzros sprzedaży. Zmienna warość indeksów sezonowych na przesrzeni roku kalendarzowego, obrazuje wpływ prac i zabiegów agroechnicznych na cykliczność zmian popyu na ciągniki rolnicze. Począek roku, gdy nie są wykonywane polowe zabiegi agroechniczne, posiadał sprzedaż niższą od poziomu odniesienia o 52,9%. Sezon wiosennych prac polowych znajduje odbicie w radykalnym wzroście popyu na ciągniki, kóry w kwieniu był wyższy od poziomu przecięnego o 92,9%. Po zakończeniu prac w miesiącu maju nasępowało obniżenie poziomu sprzedaży. Wyższy popy wysępował przed rozpoczęciem sezonu żniwnego, a obniżony w czasie zbioru plonów. Sezonowy wzros poziomu sprzedaży wysępował akże pod koniec roku, ale był on nadal niższy od poziomu odniesienia. Modernizacja gospodarsw, prowadzona przy powszechnym wykorzysaniu funduszy z Unii Europejskiej, wpłynęła po kilku laach na zmianę porzeb i oczekiwań części rolników. Dofinansowanie zakupu na poziomie 50% spowodowało wzros zaineresowania modelami ciągników o wyższej mocy i bogaym wyposażeniu. INTRODUCTION Over a span of he recen decade he disribuion of new agriculural racors in Poland has been adaped o consanly changing needs of resrucured rural areas. The purchase of new racors was a prioriy when invesing in modernizaion of echnical equipmen of rural farms. Agriculural racors are a main source of driving 3 852

4 power and racion energy of machine and device owed weigh during boh plan and animal producion (Dreszer, e al., 2008; Dulce, e al., 2005; Karczmarczyk, 2005). The increase in he pace of inegraion processes a he end of he 20h cenury, boh in European and global aspecs, has included Poland in he field of ineres of barons of agriculural machines indusry. The logisic of disribuion of racors, which are almos 50% of he world s producion of agriculural machines, is a primary ask for each and every producer (Lorencowicz, 2011). The qualiaive, quaniaive and age srucure of he marke of exploied vehicles in Poland was a challenge for logisic disribuion sysems of producers of individual brands of racors. This problem should be considered paricularly in he aspec of meeing he demand simulaed by means from he Srucural Funds of he European Union. As a new ready marke, Poland requesed forming proper srucures in disribuion chains of enerprise. The chain of auhorized dealer shops was creaed and expanded by producers so ha he agriculural racors could be offered via selecive disribuion (Lorencowicz and Kia, 2010). The model of acions execued in accordance wih he rules of selecive disribuion allows o make conac wih seleced group of receivers and presen wide offer opimally adjused o needs, requiremens and expecaions of fuure purchasers (Ciesielski and Długosz, 2010; Chrisopher and Peck, 2005; Coyle, e al., 2003; Kuboń, 2007a). The sales organizaion should encompass an analysis of he ype and srucure of goods delivery o fuure purchasers via a company or auhorized dealer chain. The key issue for logisics is he creaion of disribuion channels having desired spaial srucure and flow capaciy (Hodczak-Sekulska and Redmer, 2010a, 2010b). The proper organizaion of hese processes allows acquiring propery righs o goods and provides insan recepion and exploiaion of purchased agriculural vehicles. The managemen of logisics of selecive disribuion is oriened o permanen reducion of oal sales coss in order o increase he price compeiiveness of agriculural racors in respecive power segmens (Cyplik, e al., 2008; Juściński and Piekarski, 2008a, 2008c; Kuboń, 2007b; Tabor, 2001; Tabor and Kuboń, 2004). Anoher sandard wihin he frames of he disribuion logisics is he echnical service in he field of inspecions and repairs of agriculural racors and simulaneous proecion of deliveries of spare pars and exploiaive fluids. The effeciveness of hese processes is increased hrough he use of he ousourcing mehod in he logisics managemen (Juściński, 2011; Juściński and Piekarski, 2010a, 2010b; Skudlarski, 2005; Tomczyk, 2009a, 2009b). MATERIAL AND METHODS The selecive disribuion preferred by producers of agriculural vehicles and machines requires dividing ready markes ino fields, which size would ensure he desired level of demand for offered producs (Gran, e al., 2006; Rukowski, 2005). Because of he consrucion soluions used in agriculural racors, he echnological level and equipmen are he marke segmen imposing high financial demands on poenial users (Kuboń, 2008; Wajszczuk, 2006; Wajszczuk, e al., 2010; Wąsowicz, 2001) Over a span of he recen decade, he direcions and dynamics of changes on domesic sales marke of agriculural racors have depended on various facors

5 Simulaing he demand wih consanly changing condiions of financing of he machines and vehicles purchases was paricularly imporan issue which should be encompassed in he process of managemen of disribuion logisics. Means gained from consecuive programmes creaed wihin he frames of Srucural Funds of he European Union enabled, among ohers, he modernizaion of echnical equipmen of farms, area-based and produc surcharges and help for young farmers. Because of heir size and ime srucure, he execued payous of he subsidies on he purchase of machines were a facor ha could affec he heerogeneiy of he demand. Oher forms of exorions were generaed by he dependency of he level of works in farms on he calendar of agriechnical procedures (Dulce, e al., 2005; Karczmarczyk, 2005). An analysis of he srucure of he agriculural racors marke in Poland and an analyses of he European Union programmes financing modernizaion of agriculural farms in he years were carried ou. The srucure of he domesic racor disribuion sysems for leading producers was examined and analysed. The purpose of he work was also o carry ou research on sales of new racors. The subjec of performed analyses was an auhorized disribuor of he leading brands of agriculural racors on he Polish marke. The seleced rade and service enerprise has been running a service and disribuion aciviy in Cenral and Easern Poland for he las 25 years. During he research carried ou in he years he quaniaive arrangemen of sales of brand-new agriculural racors was carried ou. The saisical analysis of he demand was conduced in he aspec of he European Union resrucuring programmes and cyclical seasonal changes. STATISTICAL ANALYSES The analysis of he Y, ime series, which sands for he number of sold racors, was carried ou in order o deermine he characer of he analysed phenomenon hrough ime sequence of observaions of random variables, i.e. deermining he rend, random flucuaions and seasonal flucuaions. The echnique based on cenred moveable averages was used o level he ime series. Because of he characer of he analysed phenomena, i.e. agriechnical seasons over he span of he calendar year, he lengh of he moveable periods was se: d = 1, The analysis of he phenomenon was carried ou on he basis of a muliplicaive model of he elemens of he ime series. Such a model can be presened as he following equaion (1) (Aczel and Sounderpandian, 2008; Pułaska-Turyna, 2008): where: Y series value, T series rend, S seasonal flucuaions, C cyclical flucuaions, I random flucuaions. Y = T S C I (1) Cenred moveable averages for he consecuive Y levels have a form deermined by he following formula (2): (d ) 1 y = d d y d y + y d + 2 2, 0 = (2) 5 854

6 The value of he seasonal indexes was isolaed on he basis of he following inerrelaion (3): O = i c = y ( M 100WK (3) 1 i ) ( d ) c 1 yi where: c he number of he inermience cycles 12 ( M ) WK - average muliplicaive adjusing index for obaining O i = 1200 i= 1 The value of an average muliplicaive adjusing index is described by he following inerrelaion (4): ( M ) WK = 1 c c 100 d yi 100 ( d ) y = 1 Random flucuaions for a muliplicaive series are shown by he following inerrelaion (5): i (4) ( M ) y y = 100 (5) ( skor) O The series rend was isolaed using a five-period weighed average (6): ( M ) (5)( M ) M yˆ = y = + 2 ( ) y ( skor) w g 2 1 i for [ ] 1 2 w = 3 (6) 2 1 The level of reference (average level) for seasonal indexes in respecive monhs amouned o 100% and was a reference number when performing graphic analysis of he impac of seasonal flucuaions on he arrangemen of he variables se. A saisical analysis of he research resuls was carried ou using R programme for Windows (version ) (Crawley, 2008; Walesiak and Ganar, 2009). RESULTS AN ANALYSIS OF THE SIZE AND STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTORS MARKET IN POLAND During he final sage of preparaions for membership in he European Union, he common agriculural regiser carried ou in Poland in 2002 proved ha farmers used 1,338,700 racors. A saisical represenaive of his group of vehicles was 22 years old. According o he daa of he Insiue of Economics of Agriculure and Food Managemen, he domesic marke of agriculural racors a ha ime reached he sales level of 6,000 pieces a year. The size of he demand generaed by domesic food producers drasically differed from he absorpive powers of he hen European Union marke. In he analogous period i was only 20-25% of he sales level in he segmen of agriculural racors in France, Ialy or Germany. The common agriculural 6 855

7 regiser carried ou in 2010 showed ha here were 1,446,300 agriculural racors used in Poland (Table 1). Table 1. The srucure of he number of racors on farms according o he area groups of he arable lands in Poland in 2010 Tabela 1. Srukura ilości ciągników w gospodarswach według grup obszarowych użyków rolnych w Polsce w 2010 roku No. Arable lands area Number of racors Tracors paricipaion ha pcs % 1 under 1 54, , , , , , , above , In general: 1,466, Source: Chief Cenral Saisical Office 2011 Over a span of he analysed period he number of racors increased by 127,600. This group conains boh brand-new vehicles made in Poland, new racors impored from oher counries by auhorized dealer chains and racors impored individually from Wesern and Easern Europe. In he analogous period, here were 48,200 racors produced in Poland, 117,100 racors were impored and 25,300 were expored, which se he oal domesic supply a he level of 140,000 vehicles annually. Comparing he possession wih he size of he marke offer means wihdrawal and scrapping of 12,400 agriculural racors (Cenral Saisical Office, 2011; Pawlak, 2011). The analysis of he marke srucure during he common agriculural regiser in 2010 indicaed ha since Poland enered he European Union, farmers had bough 184,000 racors. Comparing he supply wih he number of racors purchased by farmers indicaes ha here is a large inernal marke of used vehicles amouning o over 40,000 pieces. Transacions beween privae users in he pre-accession period were dominan on he domesic marke. Afer launching consecuive ranches of he European Union subsidies, he age srucure of he purchased racors also changed. In 2007 only every hird racor was brand-new. In 2010 however, every second vehicle purchased in Poland was brand-new (Lorencowicz 2011a). AN ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION PROGRAMMES ON SUPPORT OF DEVELOPMENT AND MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE The Special Accession Programme for Agriculure and Rural Developmen (SAPARD) was esablished in order o aid counries willing o become members of he European Union (EU). The purpose of his programme in Poland was o suppor processes of srucural rural ransformaions and prepare boh insiuions and individual beneficiaries for using he Insrumens of he Common Agriculural Policy

8 The SAPARD operaional programme had a budge of 1,084 million EUR (4,795 million PLN) and encompassed acions in six areas. Acion No. 2 is a field ha encompasses 15% of he allocaed means oriened o invesmens in agriculural farms. The implemenaion of he programme began in July The recepion of applicaions ended in Augus The Agency for Agriculure Resrucuring and Modernizaion signed 13,742 conracs in oal worh 145 million EUR (637.4 million PLN) for Acion No. 2. The programme encompassed he oal number of 24,431 conracs wih farmers. The EU means covered approximaely 50% of he coss of he enerprise. The remaining coss and VAT was paid by farmers from heir own funds. Surcharges on beneficiaries execued in he years The purchase of new agriculural racors was a dominan elemen in he conracs approved for execuion ( The accession of Poland o he European Union on 1 May 2004 also forced he necessiy of adaping he domesic disribuion marke for he new requiremens from which he mos imporan one was he increase of he VAT rae from 0% o 22% on agriculural machines and vehicles. In he years , insrumens of agriculure policies in Poland were execued wihin he frames of he Naional Developmen Plan. One of he aciviies was he Secor Operaional Programme on Resrucuring and Modernizaion of he food secor and rural developmen. Wihin he frames of he execuion of 42,582 applicaions, he programme suppored invesmens in agriculural farms wih funds amouning o 644 million EUR (2,419 million PLN). In general, 1,784 million EUR was spen on he needs of farmers from he EU means and he sae budge. Anoher aciviy is he Programme For Rural Developmen (PRD) for he years which encompasses four areas of resrucuring aciviies. Financial means for he execuion of he whole programme exceed 17 billion EUR (70 billion PLN). The hemaic area of Agriculural Farms Modernizaion, encompassing 15% of he subsidies became very popular among farmers, which resuled in signing over 41,000 conracs. Consecuive ediions of applicaions submissions by farmers a he Agency for Agriculure Resrucuring and Modernizaion were conduced in 2007, 2009 and During he period beween 2007 and November 2011, farmers purchased 19,394 agriculural racors wihin he frames of his group of means. The maximum value of aid a single beneficiary could ge per one farm wihin he frames of he execuion of he whole Programme for Rural Developmen could no exceed 300,000 PLN. Depending on specific condiions he level of aid was se from 40% o 75% of qualified coss ( AN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE OF THE DOMESTIC SYSTEM OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTORS DISTRIBUTION The logisics of racor disribuion in respecive power classes, and herefore having differen value, required preparing a concep of spaial arrangemen of companies running auhorized sales and echnical service (Juściński and Piekarski, 2009c). Terriorial locaion of enerprises running an auhorized disribuion of agriculural racors for leading brands in sales in 2010 on he Polish marke is presened in Table 2 and 3. In Polish condiions, he srucure of dealer companies reflecs he variey in he number of farms and heir size in individual provinces. The general rule is ha domesic producers brands such as: Pronar, Pol-Mo/Ursus, Farmrac and Farmer as well as racors in he lower price range: Zeor and Belarus have sales chains wih greaer number of auhorized dealer firms (Table 2)

9 Table 2. Terriorial locaion of auhorized agriculural racors dealers in Poland Tabela 2. Rozkład eryorialny auoryzowanych dealerów ciągników rolniczych w Polsce No. Province New Holland Producers of agriculural racors Case IH John Deere Zeor Pronar Belarus Farmer Farmrac pcs pcs pcs pcs pcs pcs pcs 1 Dolnośląskie Kujawsko - Pomorskie Lubelskie Lubuskie Łódzkie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Opolskie Podkarpackie Podlaskie Pomorskie Śląskie Święokrzyskie Warmińsko - Mazurskie Wielkopolskie Zachodniopomorskie In general: Source: Auhor s own analysis Table 3. Terriorial locaion of auhorized agriculural racors dealers in Poland Tabela 3. Rozkład eryorialny auoryzowanych dealerów ciągników rolniczych w Polsce No. Province Same Deuz Fahr Lamborghini Fend, Massey Ferguson Valra Claas Pol-Mo Ursus pcs pcs pcs pcs pcs pcs pcs 1 Dolnośląskie Kujawsko - Pomorskie Lubelskie Lubuskie Łódzkie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Opolskie Podkarpackie Podlaskie Pomorskie Śląskie Święokrzyskie Warmińsko - Mazurskie Wielkopolskie Zachodniopomorskie In general: Source: Auhor s own analysis Producers of agriculural racors 9 858

10 The densiy of sales poins runs from a couple o a dozen or so companies in one province. American concerns John Deere and Claas and European Same, Deuz Fahr, Lamborghini, Fend and Massey Ferguson implemened a concep of sales chain which, in a sandard way, has one or wo represenaives per province (Table 3). Areas having he greaes number or size of farms, i.e. Mazowieckie, Lubelskie, Podlaskie and Wielkopolskie provinces are serviced by greaer number of auhorized dealer companies. In he period of Poland s accession o he EU New Holland concern, which is a leader in sales marke of new racors, has expanded is own disribuion chain by almos 100% (Juściński and Piekarski, 2008a). The price range of he offered models is a resul of used consrucion soluions, heir echnological level and various and rich offer of addiional equipmen insalled in a seleced racor a he consumer reques (Table 4). Table 4. Arrangemen of marke prices of new agriculural racors in Poland in 2010 Tabela 4. Rozkład cen rynkowych nowych ciągników rolniczych w Polsce w 2010 roku No. Tracor power Minimal price Maximal price kw PLN PLN 1 under 25 23,000 69, , , , , , , , ,000 6 above , ,000 Source: Auhor s own analysis A poenial buyer can now selec from 450 models wih kw of power manufacured by domesic and foreign producers (Juściński and Piekarski, 2009d; Skrobacki and Ekielski, 2006). AN ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTORS DISTRIBUTION IN A SELECTED DEALER COMPANY IN THE YEARS Over a span of eigh years of research, services execued by an enerprise being an auhorized dealer of agriculural machines and racors were a subjec of analysis. The conduced research encompassed sales srucure of 1012 agriculural racors in oal. The sales in he secor of agriculural vehicles in he analysed period encompassed he following brands: John Deere, Zeor, Same Deuz Fahr Group (SDFG) and Pronar. The sale of John Deere racors, which is he leading brand in an analysed company, was carried ou in Cenral and Easern Poland. The disribuion in case of he remaining producers, however, had a local characer. The arrangemen of he number of agriculural racors sold in respecive monhs in he years is presened in he following hisogram (Fig. 1)

11 Number agriculural racors (pcs) I 2003 III 2003 V 2003 VII 2003 IX 2003 XI 2003 I 2004 III 2004 V 2004 VII 2004 IX 2004 XI 2004 I 2005 III 2005 V 2005 VII 2005 IX 2005 XI 2005 I 2006 III 2006 V 2006 VII 2006 IX 2006 XI 2006 I 2007 III 2007 V 2007 Monhs VII 2007 IX 2007 XI 2007 I 2008 III 2008 V 2008 VII 2008 IX 2008 XI 2008 I 2009 III 2009 V 2009 VII 2009 IX 2009 XI 2009 I 2010 III 2010 V 2010 VII 2010 Fig.1. The arrangemen of he number of agriculural racors sold in he years in a monhly paern [Auhor s own analysis] Rys. 1. Rozkład ilości sprzedanych ciągników rolniczych w laach w układzie miesięcznym [Opracowanie własne] IX 2010 XI 2010 Table 5. The srucure of sold agriculural racors Tabela 5. Srukura ilości sprzedanych ciągników rolniczych No. Sales execuion ime % % % % % % % % 1 I quarer II quarer III guarer IV quarer In general: Source: Auhor s own analysis In 2003, 128 racors were sold. The research proved ha he sales level in quarerly view was characerized by a rising rend over a span of he whole year (Table 5). The common regulariy characerizing hese hree quarers was he fac ha he highes level of sales was reached in he las monh of he analysed period. The lowes demand level occurred in January and May. The local demand maximum, which was 400% higher han he one in January, occurred in June and July. The highes demand occurred in December and amouned o 21% of he annual sales level. In 2004, 171 racors were sold. In comparison o he previous year, here was a 13.4% growh in sales. In he period beween February and April he sales increased very dynamically and he demand maximum occurred in April. Over a span of one monh 50% of he oal number of racors was sold and 79% of an annual sale was done during he firs four monhs. The srucure and dynamics of sales were

12 drasically reduced in he remaining monhs. From May o December sales hovered a a few pieces per monh. In 2005, 105 racors were sold. In comparison o he previous year, sales level dropped by 38.6%. The analysis proved ha he firs and he second quarer had equal level of sales and he increase in demand occurred in he second half of he year. The increase in demand was noed in July, March and April and he maximal level of 18.1% was reached in November. In 2006, 126 racors were sold. The lowes sales rae in a quarerly view occurred a he beginning of he year and he highes in he hird quarer (Table 5). In comparison o he previous year, sales rae increased by 20.0%. The minimal demand rae occurred in January and November. The maximal number of vehicles amouning exceeding he minimal rae by 400% was sold in July. Anoher high increase in sales occurred in December. In 2007, 104 racors were sold. The demand was even, despie a sligh local decline in he hird quarer (Table 5). Sales dropped by 17.5% in comparison o he previous year. The lowes demand occurred in January, July and December, and he highes sales rae occurred in Ocober. The monhly maximum was higher by 200% comparing o he sales level from he beginning and from he end of he year. In 2008, 107 racors were sold. The firs quarer was he ime of he lowes demand. The maximal sales rae was recorded in he second quarer (Table 5). In comparison o he previous year here was a sligh increase in sales by 2.9%. The lowes sales occurred in January, March, Ocober and November and he maximal demand occurred in July. In 2009, 128 racors were sold. The sales level increased by 50% in he second quarer in comparison o he beginning of he year (Table 5) and increased by 19.6% in comparison o he previous year. The lowes demand was recorded in December and he maximal number of racors was sold in April, June and Ocober. The highes sales level exceeded he minimal demand by 150%. In 2010, 143 racors were sold. The highes sales level was recorded in he hird quarer. In he las quarer, he demand decreased by almos 50%. In relaion o he las year his year s sales increased by 11.7%. The lowes sales were recorded in November and December, amouning o only 15% of he Augus s sales rae. The highes number of racors was sold in Augus, April and March. DISCUSSION STATISTICAL STUDY: TREND, RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS AND SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS The brand-new agriculural racors sales srucure in Poland is characerized by he variabiliy of demand (Fig. 2). There are big differences in he number of sold vehicles over a span of respecive monhs in consecuive years. The demand is also variable when compared o consecuive annual sales resuls for he analysed period. I has o be emphasized ha here were numerous unprecedened evens in he years on he disribuion marke of he brand-new agriculural racors in Poland. They encompass he preparaion processes o accession, enering he EU and gradual adjusmen of he Polish agriculure o he EU sandards. The financial condiion and area srucure of agriculural farms and heir level of echnical

13 equipmen have se he direcions of he developmen and prioriies of resrucuring and modernizaion. The rend diagram (Fig. 3) illusraes he characer of long-erm changes on he brand-new agriculural racors sales marke on he basis of research conduced a he seleced dealer. A he urn of he years 2003 and 2004, here was an upward rend forced by he upcoming accession. The increase of he VAT on agriculural machines and vehicles ended he period of a very high demand and sared he rend of dynamically decreasing sales rae over a span of he remaining monhs in During he whole 2005 here was an upward rend for sales of agriculural racors despie he reduced demand in comparison o he previous year. The reason for he increase in he sales rae in his period was he execuion of he majoriy of payous for beneficiaries of conracs signed wihin he frames of he SAPARD. The endency of he periodically rising rend, ye wihou he dynamics from he previous period, occurred in 2006 when he execuion of he SAPARD payous was concluded. The falling rend in 2007 was concurren wih he lack of payous from he EU funds. Over a span of he aforemenioned period he firs ediion of receiving applicaions wihin he frames of he Programme for Rural Developmen was execued. As heir execuion was posponed due o procedural requiremens conneced wih applicaions approval and verificaion, he period of majoriy of payous for invesmens was rescheduled for The rising rend wih periodical declines also occurred in he years Fig.2. The srucure of he number of sold agriculural racors in he years [Auhor s own analysis] Rys. 2 Srukura poziomów sprzedaży ciągników rolniczych w poszczególnych miesiącach la [Opracowanie własne]

14 Fig.3. The rend of he srucure of agriculural racors sales in he years [Auhor s own analysis] Rys. 3 Trend srukury sprzedaży ciągników rolniczych w laach [Opracowanie własne] Fig.4. Random flucuaions for he sales levels of agriculural racors in he years [Auhor s own analysis] Rys. 4 Wahania przypadkowe dla poziomów sprzedaży ciągników rolniczych w laach [Opracowanie własne] Because of he significan improvemen in a sysem of receiving and approving farmers applicaions for execuion, he second ediion of he Programme for Rural Developmen launched in 2009, did no hamper he rising rend as i did in The rising rend over a span of he wo recen years of conduced research resuled in he fac ha brand-new racors sales reached he highes level since Poland s accession o he EU. The characer of changes on new agriculural racors disribuion marke is illusraed in he diagram (Fig. 4). Heerogeneiy of he demand srucure over a span of consecuive monhs in he years is illusraed by random flucuaions

15 isolaed from he ime series. The high increase in sales in respecive monhs of he year was accompanied by demand declines o he minimal level in subsequen periods. The highes value of random flucuaions occurred in December 2003, April 2004, January and November 2005, July and December 2006, Ocober 2007, May and July 2008 and January Despie he long-erm rising rend, such an irregular arrangemen of maximal demand values was a serious challenge for logisic sysems of racors dealers and producers. High value of demand random flucuaions forced significan correcions in disribuion plans and even producs manufacuring. Marke observaions confirmed ha launching consecuive payou ranches by he Agency for Agriculure Resrucuring and Modernizaion caused insan sales increase. The lack of informaion on he dae of furher subsidies payous was a significan problem for disribuion logisics. Compeiion and srong pressure on disribuion cos reducion in he whole sales chain hindered preserving high vehicle supply. Warehouse sock is an elemen ha significanly impacs he financial condiion of dealer companies. The lack of reliable sales forecass coming from dealers was a facor ha hindered making producion plans by manufacurers. The random demand rise inroduced an elemen hampering he process of disribuion chain managemen and simulaneously increased he danger of emergence of addiional coss when making changes in producion plans caused by execuion of individual orders. Enerprises also had o assess he risk of loss of poenial profis wih he inabiliy o safeguard vehicle supplies immediaely afer he demand rise (Frankowska and Jedliński, 2011; Juściński and Piekarski, 2009c; Wojciechowski, 2007). The comparison of quaniaive srucure of racors sales was carried ou in he aspec of seasonal flucuaions isolaed from he ime series by an eliminaion of rend, and cyclical and random flucuaions. The saisical analysis of he sales srucure in an analysed dealer company over a span of eigh consecuive years allowed o define he value of seasonal indexes over a span of a calendar year. Fig.5. Seasonal indexes for he number of agriculural racors sold in he years [Auhor s own analysis] Rys. 5 Indeksy sezonowe dla ilości sprzedanych ciągników rolniczych w laach [Opracowanie własne]

16 The beginning of he year, a period when here are no field agriechnical procedures carried ou, had sales level by 52.9% lower han he reference level. The lack of he need of using vehicles resuls in he fac ha farmers pospone purchasing vehicles and, herefore, lower he coss of farm funcioning by posponing paymens o subsequen monhs. As a resul of seasonal flucuaions in hree consecuive monhs sales exceeded average level: by 5.2% in February, 24.1% in March and 92.9% in April. The season of spring field works is refleced in radical rise in demand for racors which are necessary equipmen in case of such aciviies (Dulce, e al., 2005; Karczmarczyk, 2005). The drop in sales level afer he works are concluded is very characerisic. In May and June, seasonal indexes were lower han reference level by accordingly 8.5% and 7.2%. Before he crops began, here had been a seasonal rise in sales in July, higher by 20.8% han he average level. Anoher seasonal flucuaion conneced wih he beginning of harves resuled in he 27.8% drop in demand in Augus comparing o he average value. As a resul of seasonal flucuaions in he period beween Sepember and December, he demand was accordingly 14.8%, 5.9%, 15.6% and 10.8% below he reference level (Juściński and Piekarski, 2008b). CONCLUSIONS The saisical analysis of he research resuls showed a rend changes course, which allows o pu forward a hypohesis on a significan impac of funds from he EU on he srucure and level of purchase of new agriculural racors. Due o announced changes in regulaions, he period before Poland s accession o he EU was generaed by upward rend in racors sales. Through 50% subsidies, consecuive programmes supporing agriculure modernizaion increased he demand for agriculural racors and generaed a long-erm upward rend. The saisical analysis proved ha here are random flucuaions ha affec elemens of ime series defining he number of sold racors, which was unfavourable phenomenon for funcioning of he disribuion logisics. Because of he wide usage of he EU subsidies on financing he purchase of new racors, i is possible o pu forward a hypohesis on he impac of ime of graning subsidies on he size of demand flucuaions. I was refleced paricularly well in he racors sales level in cases when financial means from SAPARD and PRD were graned irregularly and here was delay in ransferring hem o farmers. The value of seasonal indexes calculaed for ime series of racor sales allows o pu forward a hypohesis on significan impac on seasonal characer of conduced works and agriechnical procedures on cyclical characer of changes in demand for agriculural racors. As a resul of seasonal flucuaions here is a low sales rae a he beginning of he year. The season of spring field works generaed radical rise in demand. Afer he works were concluded in May here was a decline in sales level. The higher demand occurred before he harvesing and was geing lower during cropping. The seasonal rise in sales level also occurred a he end of he year bu was sill lower han he reference level. The developmen of disribuion logisics afer Poland s accession o he EU led o he direc marke confronaion of vehicles from various brands. Agriculural racors in he same power class, bu wih differen consrucion and use soluions, were offered in a wide price range. The process of rying o reach he same poenial cusomer forced changes on disribuion marke. Producers renegoiaed rade conracs wih

17 dealers so ha hey could gain exclusive righs o sale heir producs. The aforemenioned issue occurred during he conduced research and concerned racors manufacured by Zeor company and SDFG concern. Afer wo years of simulaneous sales, he producs of SDFG concern were wihdrawn from he commercial offer of he analysed enerprise. The conduced analysis proved ha auhorized sales of agriculural vehicles of muliple producers by one dealer can be carried ou on a domesic marke providing here is no direc rade ineres conflic. The simulaneous disribuion of muliple racor brands was emporarily funcioning in he analysed enerprise. The dealer execued simulaneous disribuion of John Deere and Zeor agriculural vehicles over a span of four years. The disribuion company can run simulaneous sales of producs from various producers who cooperae wihin he frames of one concern. Such model of funcioning was confirmed by condiions of Same Deuz Fahr Group concern. The research carried ou over a span of wo years indicaed ha he commercial offer was expanded by Same, Deuz Fahr and Lamborghini vehicles. Afer a couple of years, he modernizaion of farms carried ou wih a common use of funds from he EU made impac on he change of needs and expecaions of some farmers. The analysed company wihdrew Zeor racors, which were producs from he lower price range, and began exclusive sales of American racors from Deere & Company. Such acions were an answer o he rising ineres of farmers in higher class vehicles wih 50% subsidies on heir purchase. Moreover, producs from he Czech plan had four imes more sales spos, which significanly hindered reaching he desired sales level in selecive disribuion. REFERENCES Aczel, A.D., Sounderpandian, J., (2008) Complee Business Saisics. 7 h ed. Boson: McGraw-Hill Ciesielski, M., Długosz, J., (2010) Sraegie łańcuchów dosaw. Warszawa: Polskie Wydawnicwo Ekonomiczne Chaplin, H., Davidova, S., Goron, M., (2004) Agriculural adjusmen and he diversificaion of farm households and corporae farms in Cenral Europe. Journal of Rural Sudies, 20, Chrisopher, M., Peck, H., (2005) Logisyka markeingowa, Warszawa: Polskie Wydawnicwo Ekonomiczne Coyle, J. J., Bardi, E. J., Langley, C. J., (2003) The Managemen of Business Logisics: A Supply Chain Perspecive. 7 h ed. Ohio: Thomson Learning Crawley, M. J., (2008) The R book, Chicheser: John Wiley & Sons Ld. Cyplik, P., Głowacka, D., Fersch, M., (2008) Logisyka przedsiębiorsw dysrybucyjnych. Poznań: Wydawnicwo Wyższa Szkoła Logisyki Dreszer, K. A., Pawłowski, T., Szczepaniak, J., Szymanek, M., Tanaś, W., (2008) Maszyny rolnicze. Poznań: Wydawnicwo Przemysłowy Insyu Maszyn Rolniczych

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