1 ZESZYTY NAUKOWE UNIWERSYTETU SZCZECIŃSKIEGO NR 689 FINANSE, RYNKI FINANSOWE, UBEZPIECZENIA NR PIOTR TWOREK THE ECONOMIC CRISIS IN POLAND: PERFORMANCE, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND BUSINESS RISK. A CASE OF THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY AND THE REAL-ESTATE MARKET. SELECTED ISSUES Introduction The paper discusses the state of Poland s economy during the economic crisis, with the emphasis on the construction industry and the real-estate market. In particular, the author focuses on how the crisis started, i.e. discusses its origin and development during the first period of the financial crisis in Poland. The analysis primarily concerns the period spanning from Q to Q The paper also deals with the current situation, i.e. the world economic crisis and, more specifically, its second wave in As all the world is seeing an economic downturn right now, the issue of business risk is becoming increasingly important. This is also evidenced by numerous corporate failures (also in Poland) and other severe problems, that entrepreneurs all over the world have to tackle. These problems are now being carefully analysed in world and domestic financial institutions (such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Central Banks) and research centres. Intense scientific studies in this area are being conducted; this gives rise to more in-depth deliberations, which is also the subject of this paper. At the same time, in the period of the global economic crisis, the knowledge of risk management is gaining importance, as investment becomes a particularly risky business activity during the economic slump. The principal aim of the paper is to outline the impact of the global crisis, in its first stage of development, on the Polish economy and, as a follow-up, discuss increased business risks (including investment risk), by looking at the construction industry and the real-estate market as the examples. When formulating his conclusions, the author employs induction, deduction and synthesis methods; the paper also draws on the studies of the literature. Another source of information here is the Internet. Besides, the author makes use of descriptive and quantitative analyses, graphic techniques (graphs, figures, tables), etc. In order to discuss the problems, which are the subject matter of the paper in a most comprehensive way, the paper is divided into three parts. Part one describes the origin of the global credit crunch; part two deals with the Polish economy, i.e. the author focuses on the macroeconomic aspects; part three discusses the
2 848 Piotr Tworek rise in business risk due to economic downturns, based on the example of the construction industry and the real-estate market. The data given in the paper are derived from such institutions as: the Polish Statistical Office, Poland s Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Finance, the National Bank of Poland, the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Eurostat, etc. Financial crisis in the world On 15 September, 2008 the world saw a spectacular collapse of an American investment bank Lehman Brothers, and this event is regarded by many economists as a symbolic beginning of the world economic crisis. In particular, the event triggered a panic on the global stock exchanges. This led to bankruptcies of a number of financial institutions and manufacturing companies. The essential reason why the scope of the US crisis is much wider than the scopes of the previous global crises and their impact on the world economy is securitisation of mortgages 1. The recent crunch has caused a severe crisis of public finances in many countries all over the world (e.g. Greece, Italy, Spain), as well as in Poland. Greece, in particular, has been severely affected by the consequences of the global economic crisis (public finance crisis). In order to prevent this country from bankruptcy, the European Community, especially Germany and France, have granted multi-billion loans to be paid out in tranches. The condition that Greece needs to meet to receive the next tranches of financial aid are thorough reforms of its public finance. It should be added that the recent crisis is often compared to the big world economic crisis of (in Poland this crisis lasted until 1935, due to the specific profile of the Polish economy, which was dominated by agriculture). In Poland the credit crunch evolved into a typical economic crisis, long lasting and very deep. One of the reasons behind this phenomenon is the fact that it can be traced back to the turmoil on the financial markets 2. The root causes of the current global financial crisis include: a price bubble on the real-estate market (American one, but not only; a dramatic rise in real estate prices in the US from 1997 to mid-2006) (...) due to e.g. liberal lending policy of the financial institutions granting credits and mortgage loans, liberalisation and deregulation of the financial markets, globalisation, new technologies (enabling online transactions), new financial instruments, excessive leveraging at banks, hedge funds and private equity funds, 1 Koniunktura gospodarcza. Od bańki internetowej do kryzysu subprime, ed. J. Czech-Rogosz, J. Pietruchy, R. Żelaznego. Wydawnictwo C.H. BECK, Warszawa 2009, p See more: H. Simon: 33 sposoby na kryzys gospodarczy, Difin, Warszawa 2009, p
3 The Cconomic Crisis in Poland: Performance, Investment Opportunities securitisation mechanism 3. The current economic crisis has followed a long-term economic growth worldwide in the years of , which is illustrated in Figure 1. United States Eurozone Figure 1. Business cycles in the Eurozone and the US in Source: Polska wobec światowego kryzysu finansowego, NBP, Warszawa 2009, p. 6. Figure 1 clearly indicates the slump (shown by the curves the blue one for the US, the red one for the Eurozone). Q is commonly believed to mark the world financial crisis, as the first three quarters of 2008 still showed quite good performance of the world economies. We should remember, however, that the crisis had already started in Shortly before the outset of the current economic crisis, investors all over the world heavily invested in capital market instruments, looking for high rates of return. Banks, in turn, eagerly granted funding for all investments, including the ones into real estates. At the same time, consumers (borrowers) were keen to borrow as the borrowing costs were relatively low, i.e. relatively low interest rates were effective at that time. Moreover, banks did not follow any restrictive credit lending policy when granting loans (uncontrolled lending). According to the National Bank of Poland (NBP) all these phenomena a boom on the real-estate market and the credit market, a quick growth in household consumption, largely financed with debt, and an intense search for high rates of return have led to severe instabilities and, consequently, macroeconomic and structural disturbances in many countries 4. Therefore, the root causes of the crisis should be looked for, first of all, in the macroeconomic sphere. The microeconomic reasons behind the economic slump ought not to be ignored either; they should be determined on the basis of the consequences caused by the crisis. A lot of businesses worldwide have gone bankrupt. The crisis has hit the world s biggest groups (e.g. General Motors, AIG) and small businesses alike. In particular, production cuts, made by big companies, have resulted in bankruptcies of small businesses, which were 3 Rynki finansowe w warunkach kryzysu, ed. M. Kalinowski. CeDeWu Sp. z o.o., Warszawa 2009, p See also: T.T. Kaczmarek: Globalna gospodarka i globalny kryzys, Difin, Warszawa 2009, p Polska wobec światowego kryzysu..., p. 6.
4 850 Piotr Tworek dependent on them. According to the NBP Report the crisis had (...) a number of causes of a microeconomic nature, related, first of all, to the functioning of the financial system and the financial aspects of other entities operations; the key ones are: an incorrect structure of incentives, mistakes made in risk measurement and evaluation techniques as well as risk management, an ineffective structure of shareholder supervision, and the shortcomings of the regulation system (including the supervision policy) 5. This is mainly about irrational behavior of numerous investors, who ignored risk in their investment activities. They ran up huge borrowings shortly before the crisis, taking advantage of the benefits of the banking system, i.e. banks lent to entities without any creditworthiness. (This primarily concerned the sub-prime mortgage market.) It may even be assumed that a lack of professional actions in the risk management area, i.e. management over investment, financial and banking risks, was one of the reasons for the recent crisis 6 analysed at the microscale level, i.e. investments into high risk instruments (too high ranking). A slump in prices of mortgage-backed securities (credit default swaps) is shown in Figure Figure 2. ABX.HE 07-1 index (change in value of CDS) Source: Reuters. Behind: Polska wobec światowego kryzysu..., p. 11. The situation presented in Fig. 2 could have come as a surprise as specialised financial institutions such as banks should have acted reasonably, i.e. should have carried out their investment and lending activities taking into consideration rates of return, on the one hand, and the risks involved on the other. American banks were the first ones to incur losses; the two biggest ones were taken over and one, i.e. Lehman Brothers 7, collapsed. After the problems of Lehman Brothers and AIG Bank Polska, the market started to look suspiciously at other banks, which could be potentially vulnerable to financial difficulties, especially 5 Ibidem, p See more: Ryzyko kryzysu finansowego w Polsce. Identyfikacja i monitorowanie, ed. D.J. Błaszczuk, Poltext, Warszawa 2006, p See more: Międzynarodowe bankructwa i afery bankowe, ed. P. Masikiewicz, SGH, Warszawa 2009, p
5 The Cconomic Crisis in Poland: Performance, Investment Opportunities Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, while these two banks weren t heavily exposed on the American subprime mortgage market, and Goldman Sachs had even managed to foresee the collapse of this market and positioned itself accordingly (taking short positions), having earned a few billion dollars on it 8. The timeline of the global financial crisis, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers, is presented in Table 1. Crisis Timeline Table 1 Dates Events 1 2 February 2007 HSBC announces lower than expected financial results, disclosing a rise in bad credits in the American sector of subprime mortgages March 2007 A report issued by the Mortgage Bankers Association shows a sudden rise in risk from the American subprime mortgage market July 2007 Problems faced by two Bear Stearns hedge funds and the first encounter with the crisis August 2007 Bear Stearns files for bankruptcy protection for two of their funds with too much exposure to the subprime mortgage market and suspension of payments to clients of their third fund August 2007 The first German banks face serious financial problems; Germany, with a consortium of private banks, forms a rescue fund to bail them out August 2007 Three investment funds belonging to BNP Paribas are suspended as their valuation is impossible September 2007 Problems with Northem Rock liquidity and its nationalisation October 2007 Reserves start to be established in financial institutions for bad securities based on subprime mortgages February 2008 A big trading scandal; due to the actions of Jerome Kerviel, the bank makes a loss of 7 billion euros and, as a consequence, they are forced to increase their equity by issuing shares for the amount of 5.5 billion euros as an emergency scheme March 2008 Bear Stearns is at the verge of bankruptcy; taken over by JP Morgan Chase September 2008 Decapitalisation from government funds in the amount of 200 million USD Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; the institutions placed under the government s administration September 2008 Merrill Lynch is taken over by Bank of America in a transaction worth 50 billion US dollars September 2008 The collapse of Lehman Brothers the beginning of the global financial crisis September 2008 The government bails out AIG; FED takes over the control of AIG; 9 November 2008 increased aid for AIG September 2008 HBOS is taken over by Loyds TSB in a transaction worth 12 billion US dollars (as originally estimated) 8 W. Nawrot: Globalny kryzys finansowy XXI wieku. Przyczyny, przebieg, skutki, prognozy, CeDeWu Sp. z o.o., Warszawa 2009, p
6 852 Piotr Tworek 1 2 September 2008 The end of the age of investment banking: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley become universal banks September 2008 The collapse of the biggest universal bank in USA Washington Mutual September 2008 Nationalisation of Bradford and Bingley Bank in the UK September 2008 Nationalisation of a string of banks in Iceland begins September 2008 Bank deposit guarantees start to be increased all over the world October 2008 The US Congress adopts a rescue plan October 2008 EU Summit on the global financial crisis October 2008 Iceland, threatened with bankruptcy, asks for international aid October 2008 A rescue plan, including partial nationalisation of financial institutions, is unveiled in the UK October 2008 Coordinated cuts of interest rates by 0.5 percent by central banks of USA, the UK, EU, Canada and Switzerland October 2008 IMF announces a bail-out plan for countries affected by the financial crisis October 2008 G7 Group decides on a rescue plan for the global financial system October 2008 UK s bail-out for the financial sector October 2008 The beginning of the American bail-out banks are decapitalised October 2008 The biggest declines of stock prices since the 1987 Stock Market Crash October 2008 First initiatives towards the reconstruction of the global financial system October 2008 Bail-out in the German banking sector November 2008 Emergency (informal) EU Summit on the financial crisis November 2008 G20 Summit on the financial crisis December 2008 The European Commission adopts the European Economic Recovery Plan Source: T. Sporek: Wpływ kryzysu finansowego na globalizację gospodarki światowej. Diagnoza i konsekwencje dla Polski, Akademia Ekonomiczna im. K. Adamieckiego w Katowicach, Katowice 2010, p As you can see in Tab. 1, the financial crisis has impacted the biggest financial institutions worldwide 9. In general, the supervision and regulation systems failed. The factors mentioned above have led to an unprecedented increase in assets/equity ratios in the financial sector, which means a high financial leverage 10. Therefore, banks were forced to dramatically reduce their lending. This has had its consequences for borrowers, this time, e.g. problems with borrowing to finance investments, i.e. in particular real-estate investments, which was accompanied by a fall of prices on the real-estate market and, as a result, a rise in business risk on this market. In general, we can say that this has to do with the fact that a slump on the real-estate market, which naturally followed a period of strong expansion, 9 P. Tworek, P. Valouch: The condition of construction industry in Poland and the Czech Republic under the financial crisis. Selected issues, [in:] Inwestycje i nieruchomości. Wybrane zagadnienia, ed. K. Marcinek. Zeszyt Naukowy nr 74, Studia Ekonomiczne 2011, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach, p Polska wobec światowego kryzysu..., p. 6.
7 The Cconomic Crisis in Poland: Performance, Investment Opportunities coincided with a loss of confidence on the financial markets 11. As seen by NBP in Poland despite the current turmoil on the financial markets, housing credits will continue to form an increasing part of assets in the banking sector, and the housing sector will become an important determinant of stability in the financial sector, which is reflected by a significant value of housing debts in banks equity 12. Summing up, a particularly interesting issue here is state interventionism. Many governments all over the world intervened, mainly on the financial markets, i.e. the so-called invisible hand of the market principle, by A. Smith, was suddenly no longer valid. Financial crisis in Poland macroeconomics aspects A sudden fall in share prices in September 2008 at the New York Stock Exchange triggered a dramatic fall in stock exchange quotations in other parts of the world. Large numbers of investors started to pull back (lose) their funds, by selling shares and other financial instruments and, at the same time, looked for so-called safe securities, such as government bonds or treasury notes. Also, the Warsaw Stock Exchange responded to this fall in share prices at the world s leading stock markets. In general, the year of 2008 ended in a slump on the world s capital markets (the bearish market). For example, the WIG rate of return in 2008 was 51.07%, although in 2009 this index was positive and amounted to 46.85%. The stock exchange data show that the years before the crisis, including the first three quarters of 2008, were characterised by positive results on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (the bull market), which is illustrated in Figure 3, presenting the historical values of the WIG20 index, i.e. from 25 November 2002 to 23 February Figure 3. Historical chart of WIG20 index (from 25 November 2002 to 23 February 2012) Source: Money.pl Retrieved February 24, 2012, from 11 G. Główka: Funkcjonowanie przedsiębiorstw budowlanych w warunkach kryzysu na rynku nieruchomości, [in:] Rynek nieruchomości gminnych w czasie kryzysu i po kryzysie, ed. M.J. Nowak, T. Skotarczak. Wydawnictwo CeDeWu Sp. z o.o, Warszawa 2010, p Polska wobec światowego kryzysu..., p. 11.
8 854 Piotr Tworek The following symptoms are also important, when diagnosing the general situation in an economy of a given country during the crisis: a decline in GDP and a slowdown in the economic growth, a decrease in output (in industry, first of all) and consumption, a reduction in employment (a rise in the unemployment rate) and pay rates in the economy, an increase in a budget and trade deficit and a fall in exports, a slowdown in investments and a rise in investment risk in the country. The GDP is particularly important, when evaluating the condition of the economy. The GDP figures in Poland and other euro states in the period of Q Q are presented in Table 2. Table 2 GDP in Poland, compared to other countries, in Q Q (during the financial crisis) Countries Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Corresponding quarter of the previous year = European Union (27) Eurozone (16) Austria a Belgium a Cyprus a Finland a France a Greece Spain a Ireland Luxemburg Malta a Netherlands b Germany a Portugal Slovakia b Slovenia a Italy a Bulgaria b Denmark Estonia b Lithuania a Latvia a Poland a
9 The Cconomic Crisis in Poland: Performance, Investment Opportunities Czech Republic a Romania b Sweden a Hungary a GreatBritain a a including working day adjustment, b non-seasonally adjusted. Source: Central Statistical Office in Poland. Retrieved February 23, 2012, from gus/5840_1338_plk_html.htm. Table 2 shows that in the consecutive quarters of the analysed period Poland was the only country, out of the 27 EU states, which reported an economic growth, i.e. a positive value of the GDP index in all the four quarters. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the GDP in Q4 2009, seasonally adjusted (at fixed prices with the reference year of 2000) increased, in real terms, by 1.2%, compared to the previous quarter 13. This may serve as the evidence that the Polish economy did quite well at that time, the crisis in Poland was not as deep and still continues to be less severe than in other countries all over the world, e.g. Greece. According to the reports issued by the Ministry of Economy the financial crisis revealed, in particular, the shortcomings of the systems of financial supervision in numerous countries, confirming, at the same time, the rightness of the Polish regulations. (...) As a result, in 2009 Poland was the fastest-developing country in Europe 14. Business risk versus the economic crisis: a case of the construction industry and the real-estate market A global increase in business risk occurs during economic slumps (financial crises), and this risk at a single company level should always be considered in the areas of operational, investment and financial activities. In particular, during economic crises, the causes and effects of the risk become deeper and more severe. Due to the recent crisis, many companies in Poland are facing serious financial problems. In the Polish construction industry, for instance, a lot of builders have found themselves on the verge of bankruptcy due to insolvencies of investors (mainly developers) and their business partners. Based on the data from the Polish construction entrepreneurs, we can now see some amplification of the crisis-related phenomena in construction companies and a general increase in business risk in the construction industry. Investing in shares of construction companies is also very risky. Moreover, a higher risk of a construction company s business activities results in 13 See: Central Statistical Office in Poland: Retrieved from PLK_HTML.htm. 14 Analiza sytuacji gospodarczej Polski w I kwartale 2010 r. Departament Analiz i Prognoz. Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Warszawa 2010, p. 5.
10 856 Piotr Tworek insufficient demand uncertainty of the general economic situation competition on the market other Figure 4. Barriers to construction and assembly activities in Poland in the period of 2007 December 2011 Source: Central Statistical Office in Poland: Koniunktura gospodarcza budownictwo, December No. 12/2011. Retrieved February 23, 2012, from a drop in the company s goodwill, and vice versa. Investments in the developers business have also become quite risky in Poland. The situation of Polish developers and construction and assembly companies is best illustrated by the values of the stock exchange indices of WIG-Developers (WIG-Developerzy) and WIG-Construction (WIG-Budownictwo). In the times of the crisis, there is also an increasing uncertainty, experienced by numerous entities (participants) on the investment and construction market and currently no one in Poland is able to make accurate predictions about the length of the economic crisis. The entities are not able to predict their own situation in the future. The future is uncertain by nature; and risk is a consequence (effect) of uncertainty 15. Risk can also be a source of numerous crisis situations in any company. A company whose financial indicators show its bad condition and a threat to its existence in the foreseeable future, is experiencing a crisis 16. Therefore, in economic practice, there may be a lot of sources causing a long- or short-term crisis in a company. Only correct and effective identification of the factors (sources of risk) which 15 A. Lipka: Ryzyko personalne. Szanse i zagrożenia zarządzania zasobami ludzkimi, Poltext, Warszawa 2002, p. 20. See also: P. Tworek: Ryzyko wykonawców przedsięwzięć inwestycyjnych, Akademia Ekonomiczna im. K. Adamieckiego, Katowice 2010, p B. Nogalski, H. Marcinkiewicz: Zarządzanie antykryzysowe przedsiębiorstwem. Pokonać kryzys i wygrać, Difin, Warszawa 2004, p. 12.
11 The Cconomic Crisis in Poland: Performance, Investment Opportunities cause a corporate crisis may lead to successful corporate management. This issue is directly connected with identification of the main barriers to companies economic activities. To illustrate this point, the selected barriers to business activities of construction and assembly companies in Poland in the period from 2007 to December 2011 are presented in Figure 4. According to the Central Statistical Office, in December 2011 the biggest obstacles indicated by companies were barriers connected with labour costs (57% in December 2011, 50% in the corresponding month of the previous year) and competition on the market (55% in the current month, 54% a year ago). (...) Compared to December 2010, the biggest rise was in the barriers connected with uncertainty of the general economic situation (from 29% to 43%), costs of raw materials (from 28% to 38%), high budgetary charges (from 26% to 34%) and labour costs (from 50% to 57%) 17. The fact that labour costs, competition and business risk grow during an economic crisis, seems somehow natural. Both the scientific literature and the economic practice divide the sources of corporate risk into micro- and macro-economic ones 18. There are also other divisions, e.g. risk-causing factors are divided into micro-economic, meso-economic and macro-economic ones. The sources (factors) of risk may [also] be divided into the ones which reduce risk and the ones which increase risk, where the first group includes: an increase in national income, an increase in exports, an increase in industrial output, an increase in demand for products offered by manufacturers, a reduction in prices of energy carriers, a fall in inflation, a reduction in taxes and a wider range of investment incentives 19. However, the latter group of factors include: a fall in national income, a fall in exports, a fall in industrial output, a growing negative balance of trade, an increase in state expenditure for social purposes and related systems of social benefits, an unstable economic situation (strikes, social unrest, etc.), an unstable and weak currency, a rise in inflation, an increase in unemployment, an increase in taxes 20. At present in Poland the greatest importance is attached to the factors, which increase the global business risk. These factors indicate that the high uncertainty on the financial markets is still growing, and the international financial system is becoming more vulnerable to crises 21. For example, in January 2010 the state budget deficit was PLN 4.8 billion, which represents 9.3% of the amount assumed in the budget act for And (...) in the period from January to March 2010, the state revenues amounted to PLN 57.0 billion (in nominal terms, a fall by 13.2% y/y), and the expenditure was PLN 79.7 billion (in nomi- 17 Koniunktura..., p See for example: K. Marcinek, M. Foltyn-Zarychta, K. Pera, P. Saługa, P. Tworek: Ryzyko w finansowej ocenie projektów inwestycyjnych. Wybrane zagadnienia, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach, Katowice 2010, p W. Tarczyński, M. Mojsiewicz: Zarządzanie ryzykiem, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2001, p Ibidem, p Międzynarodowe rynki finansowe. Część II. Red. nauk. J. Żabińska. Akademia Ekonomiczna im. K. Adamieckiego w Katowicach, Katowice 2002, p Gospodarki. Informacja o wynikach gospodarki w styczniu 2010 r., Departament Analiz i Prognoz. Wydział Statystyki i Spraw Organizacyjnych. Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Warszawa 2010, p. 2.
12 858 Piotr Tworek nal terms, a rise by 3.6% y/y) 23. At the same time, labour costs in Poland are lower than in many West European countries, which definitely has a positive impact on the development of the Polish construction industry and the developers business. In particular a success of an investment is affected by the changes in economic variables, which are a source of the market risk 24. The following ones are included: the state of the economy affects the entrepreneurs mood, impacts the situation on the real-estate market and its attractiveness, as perceived by investors 25. (...) Investors will evaluate their investments in the real-estate market by comparing alternative investment opportunities; (...) a particularly important thing, then, will be an investment value of a real estate, which is higher than the market value, and the profitability of the real estate, which is reflected by the rent value (in short-term, the rent value of the real estate depends on changes in the demand for commercial properties the supply is relatively constant just like the rates of return on the real estate, as they influence the risk level and an increase in the rent level); (...) low interest rates, which affect the financial costs of an investment, as well as the rate of return on the real estate; (...) an increase in the interest rates leads to a simultaneous increase in financial costs, the rate of return, a fall in the rent value of the real estate, a delay in letting of finished facilities and the prolonged project completion time; (...) the level of interest rates affects the variables (the demand for commercial properties, the rate of return level, financial costs, the project completion time) which influence the level of risk in the investment development process; (...) the level of inflation, which is a key factor when determining the construction costs 26. Conclusion The recent economic crisis began in the US, on the subprime mortgage market and then the credit crunch evolved into a typical economic crisis. As it flared up in the financial markets, it is long-lasting and deep. In particular, the financial crisis became acute on August 9 and 10, 2007 when the money market interest rates rose dramatically 27. Initially, the crisis was accompanied by a loss of confidence on the interbank market, which resulted from a fear that banks could become insolvent. For example, due to the fall of the four Icelandic banks, Iceland s currency depreciated. Poland is also facing a crisis right now but this crisis is not as deep and long-term as in other countries; for example, there were no bankruptcies in the banking sector. However, many experts believe that the worst is yet to come. The amplification of the crisis is best evidenced by constantly growing portfolios of debt collection companies in Poland. For example, their value in Poland amounted to approx. PLN 15 billion throughout 2010, to grow dramatically in Analiza sytuacji gospodarczej..., p I. Grodzka: Ryzyko w działalności deweloperskiej. Retrieved from pl/index.php?mod=m_artykuly&cid=17&id= Ibidem.. 26 Ibidem. 27 J.B. Taylor: Zrozumieć kryzys finansowy, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2010, p. 41.
13 The Cconomic Crisis in Poland: Performance, Investment Opportunities Literature Analiza sytuacji gospodarczej Polski w I kwartale 2010 r., Departament Analiz i Prognoz. Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Warszawa Central Statistical Office in Poland: Retrieved January 23, 2012, from gus/5840_1338_plk_html.htm. Central Statistical Office in Poland: Koniunktura gospodarcza budownictwo, grudzień No. 12/2011. Retrieved February 23, 2012, from Główka G.: Funkcjonowanie przedsiębiorstw budowlanych w warunkach kryzysu na rynku nieruchomości, [in:] Rynek nieruchomości gminnych w czasie kryzysu i po kryzysie, ed. M.J. Nowak, T. Skotarczak, Wydawnictwo CeDeWu Sp. z o.o, Warszawa Gospodarki. Informacja o wynikach gospodarki w styczniu 2010 r., Departament Analiz i Prognoz. Wydział Statystyki i Spraw Organizacyjnych. Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Warszawa Grodzka I.: Ryzyko w działalności deweloperskiej. Retrieved from pl/index.php?mod=m_artykuly&cid=17&id=93. Kaczmarek T.T.: Globalna gospodarka i globalny kryzys, Difin, Warszawa Koniunktura gospodarcza. Od bańki internetowej do kryzysu subprime, ed. J. Czech-Rogosz, J. Pietrucha, R. Żelazny, Wydawnictwo C.H. Beck, Warszawa Lipka A.: Ryzyko personalne. Szanse i zagrożenia zarządzania zasobami ludzkimi, Poltext, Warszawa Marcinek K., Foltyn-Zarychta M., Pera K., Saługa P., Tworek P.: Ryzyko w finansowej ocenie projektów inwestycyjnych. Wybrane zagadnienia, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach, Katowice Międzynarodowe bankructwa i afery bankowe, ed. P. Masikiewicz. SGH, Warszawa Międzynarodowe rynki finansowe. Cześć II, ed. J. Żabińska, Akademia Ekonomiczna im. K. Adamieckiego w Katowicach, Katowice Money.pl Retrieved February 24, 2012,from Nawrot W.: Globalny kryzys finansowy XXI wieku. Przyczyny, przebieg, skutki, prognozy, CeDeWu Sp. z o.o., Warszawa Nogalski B., Marcinkiewicz H.: Zarządzanie antykryzysowe przedsiębiorstwem. Pokonać kryzys i wygrać, Difin, Warszawa Polska wobec światowego kryzysu finansowego, NBP, Warszawa Rynki finansowe w warunkach kryzysu, ed. M. Kalinowski, CeDeWu Sp. z o.o., Warszawa Ryzyko kryzysu finansowego w Polsce. Identyfikacja i monitorowanie, ed. D.J. Błaszczuk, Poltext, Warszawa Simon H.: 33 sposoby na kryzys gospodarczy, Difin, Warszawa Sporek T.: Wpływ kryzysu finansowego na globalizację gospodarki światowej. Diagnoza i konsekwencje dla Polski, Akademia Ekonomiczna im. K. Adamieckiego w Katowicach, Katowice Tarczyński W., Mojsiewicz M.: Zarządzanie ryzykiem, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2001.
14 860 Piotr Tworek Taylor J.B.: Zrozumieć kryzys finansowy, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa Tworek P.: Ryzyko wykonawców przedsięwzięć inwestycyjnych, Akademia Ekonomiczna im. K. Adamieckiego, Katowice Tworek P., Valouch P.: The condition of construction industry in Poland and the Czech Republic under the financial crisis. Selected issues, [in:] Inwestycje i nieruchomości. Wybrane zagadnienia, ed. K. Marcinek, Zeszyt Naukowy nr 74, Studia Ekonomiczne 2011, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach. dr Piotr Tworek Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach Katedra Inwestycji i Nieruchomości Zakład Ekonomiki Projektów Inwestycyjnych KRYZYS GOSPODARCZY W POLSCE: WYNIKI, MOŻLIWOŚCI INWESTYCYJNE ORAZ RYZYKO BIZNESU (PRZYKŁAD BUDOWNICTWA I RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI). WYBRANE ZAGANIENIA Streszczenie Najogólniej artykuł poświęcony jest kryzysowi gospodarczemu w Polsce. W sposób syntetyczny omawia jego genezę, przebieg i skutki. W szczególności artykuł przedstawia wybrane wyniki polskiej gospodarki za okres IV kwartał 2008 IV kwartał Artykuł omawia także aktualne problemy polskiej gospodarki, tj. w 2011 roku. Celem artykułu jest omówienie zasadniczych kwestii z tym związanych. Na przykładzie polskiego budownictwo i rynku nieruchomości autor wyjaśnia w nim również kwestię znaczenia i wzrostu ryzyka w biznesie w okresie światowego kryzysu gospodarczego, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem wzrostu ryzyka i stopnia niepewności w budownictwie i na rynku nieruchomości. Summary In general, the paper deals with the economic crisis in Poland. It outlines its origin, evolution and consequences. In particular, it presents the selected results obtained by the Polish economy in the period from Q to Q The author also addresses the current problems faced by the Polish economy in The aim of the paper is to discuss the basic issues related to these problems. Taking the Polish construction industry and the real-estate market as the examples, the author attempts to explain the importance of business risk and its growth during the global economic crisis, focusing on a rise in risks and uncertainty in the construction sector and the real-estate market.
Pracownia Naukowo-Edukacyjna Evaluation of the main goal and specific objectives of the Human Capital Operational Programme and the contribution by ESF funds towards the results achieved within specific
Financial support for start-uppres Where to get money? - Equity - Credit - Local Labor Office - Six times the national average wage (22000 zł) - only for unymployed people - the company must operate minimum
Effective Governance of Education at the Local Level Opening presentation at joint Polish Ministry OECD conference April 16, 2012, Warsaw Mirosław Sielatycki Ministry of National Education Doskonalenie
Implementation of the JEREMIE initiative in Poland Prague, 8 November 2011 Poland - main beneficiary of EU structural funds - 20% of allocation within cohesion policy (EUR 67 bln) Over EUR 10 bln of NSRF
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION FOR THE LEASE LIMIT APPLICATION 1. Applicant s data Company s name (address, phone) NIP (VAT) and REGON numbers Contact person 2. PPROPERTIES HELD Address Type of property Property
Prof. Piotr Bledowski, Ph.D. Institute of Social Economy, Warsaw School of Economics local policy, social security, labour market Unit of Social Gerontology, Institute of Labour and Social Studies ageing
POLSKI HOLDING NIERUCHOMOŚCI SPÓŁKA AKCYJNA FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2012 Statement of Financial Position as at 31 December 2012 ASSETS Note December 31, 2012 December 31, 2011
Cracow University of Economics Sources of Real GDP per Capita Growth: Polish Regional-Macroeconomic Dimensions 2000-2005 - Key Note Speech - Presented by: Dr. David Clowes The Growth Research Unit CE Europe
POLISH ELEVATOR MARKET ONE YEAR AFTER JOINING EU by Marek Oppeln-Bronikowski, 17 of March 2005, Brussels POLISH ECONOMICAL SITUATION POLISH ECONOMICAL SITUATION REAL ECONOMY: YEAR GDP CPI year-end Investment
Seweryn SPAŁEK Krytyczne czynniki sukcesu w zarządzaniu projektami MONOGRAFIA Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej Gliwice 2004 SPIS TREŚCI WPROWADZENIE 5 1. ZARZĄDZANIE PROJEKTAMI W ORGANIZACJI 13 1.1. Zarządzanie
Call 2013 national eligibility criteria and funding rates POLAND a) National eligibility criteria Funding Organisation National Contact Point National Center for Research and Development (Narodowe Centrum
Studia I stopnia stacjonarne i niestacjonarne Kierunek Międzynarodowe Stosunki Gospodarcze Specjalność PROGRAM OF BACHELOR STUDIES Graduate profile Graduate has a general theoretical knowledge in the field
Cracow University of Economics Poland Sources of Real GDP per Capita Growth: Polish Regional-Macroeconomic Dimensions 2000-2005 - Keynote Speech - Presented by: Dr. David Clowes The Growth Research Unit,
KATOWICE SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE GLIWICE SUBZONE and its influence on local economy Definition: WHAT DOES THE SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE MEAN? THE SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE IS THE SEPERATED AREA WITH ATTRACTIVE TAX
Edycja 5. kwiecień 2015 5 th Edition APRIL 2015 Najbardziej pożądani pracodawcy 2014 w opinii specjalistów i menedżerów / Badanie Antal International The Most Desired Employers 2014 in the Opinion of Professionals
Adam Kozierkiewicz JASPERS Europa 2020 Flagship initiatives Priorities Targets Digital agenda for Europe Innovation Union Youth on the move Resource efficient Europe An industrial policy for the globalisation
Ankiety Nowe funkcje! Pomoc email@example.com Back Twoje konto Wyloguj firstname.lastname@example.org BIODIVERSITY OF RIVERS: Survey to students Tworzenie ankiety Udostępnianie Analiza (55) Wyniki
Benefits Depending on your residency status (EU citizen or not) there are various benefits available to help you with costs of living. A8 nationals need to have been working for a year and be registered
aforementioned device she also has to estimate the time when the patients need the infusion to be replaced and/or disconnected. Meanwhile, however, she must cope with many other tasks. If the department
CSR STRATEGY KANCELARIA FINANSOWA TRITUM GROUP SP. Z O.O. No matter how much you have, it matters how much you need Kancelaria Finansowa Tritum Group Sp. z o.o. was established in 2007 we build trust among
I webinarium 18.02.2015 Współfinansowany ze środków Europejskiego Funduszu Rozwoju Regionalnego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Współpracy Transgranicznej Republika Czeska - Rzeczpospolita Polska 2007-2013.
MINISTERSTWO GOSPODARKI Ministry of Economy Polska na tle świata i Europy w latach 1995 2010 (w liczbach) Poland in the World s and Europe s background in 1995 2010 (in figures) Warszawa, wrzesień 2011
IONS-14 / OPTO Meeting For Young Researchers 2013 Khet Tournament On 3-6 July 2013 at the Faculty of Physics, Astronomy and Informatics of Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun (Poland) there were two
I. Wyniki GK Apator za rok 213 - Podsumowanie Raportowane przychody ze sprzedaży na poziomie 212 (wzrost o 1,5%), nieznacznie (3%) poniżej dolnego limitu prognozy giełdowej. Raportowany zysk netto niższy
www.european-ecotourism.pl registration: email@example.com enquires: firstname.lastname@example.org tel. +48 725 994 964 Social Ecological Institute is pleased to invite to III EUROPEAN ECOTOURISM CONFERENCE
Leading organiza5on represen5ng the Business Services Sector in Poland ABSL June 2013 KEY FACTS ON THE SECTOR KEY FACTS ON THE SECTOR 110 000 No. of employees in foreign capital BPO/ITO, SSC and R&D centres
GLOBAL METHANE INITIATIVE PARTNERSHIP-WIDE MEETING 12-14.10.2011 Kraków, Poland INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND LIVE SCIENCES POZNAŃ BRANCH Department of Environmental Management in Livestock Buildings and
MINISTERSTWO GOSPODARKI Ministry of Economy Polska na tle Świata i Europy w latach 1995-2014 (w liczbach) Poland in World and Europe 1995-2014 (in figures) Warszawa, wrzesień 2015 roku Warsaw, September
How To Start a BUSINESS Agenda Steps to build a business Examples: Qualix Comergent 1 Idea The Idea is a Piece of a Company 4 2 The Idea is a Piece of a Company Investing_in_New_Ideas.wmv Finding_the_Problem_is_the_Hard_Part_Kevin
System optymalizacji produkcji energii Produkcja energii jest skomplikowanym procesem na który wpływa wiele czynników, optymalizacja jest niezbędna, bieżąca informacja o kosztach i możliwościach wykorzystania
Państwowa Inspekcja Pracy Annotation Główny Inspektorat Pracy ul. Barska 28/30 02-315 Warszawa Rzeczypospolita Polska Polska An employer s statement on the posting of a worker to the territory of the Republic
OSTC GLOBAL TRADING CHALLENGE MANUAL Wrzesień 2014 www.ostc.com/game Po zarejestrowaniu się w grze OSTC Global Trading Challenge, zaakceptowaniu oraz uzyskaniu dostępu to produktów, użytkownik gry będzie
Auschwitz and Birkenau Concentration Camp Records, 1940 1945 RG 15.191M United States Holocaust Memorial Museum Archive 100 Raoul Wallenberg Place SW Washington, DC 20024 2126 Tel. (202) 479 9717 Email:
INŻYNIERIA W ROLNICTWIE. MONOGRAFIE 16 ENGINEERING IN AGRICULTURE. MONOGRAPHS 16 WIESŁAW GOLKA TRANSPORT W RODZINNYCH GOSPODARSTWACH ROLNYCH TRANSPORTATION IN RURAL FAMILY FARMS Falenty 2014 WYDAWNICTWO
Im not found /sites/eneacsr2012.mess-asp.com/themes/eneacsr2012/img/enea.jpg Employt Capital Group is one of the largest companies in the energy industry. Therefore it has an influence, as an employer,
Domy inaczej pomyślane A different type of housing CEZARY SANKOWSKI O tym, dlaczego warto budować pasywnie, komu budownictwo pasywne się opłaca, a kto się go boi, z architektem, Cezarym Sankowskim, rozmawia
Project CARETRAINING PROJECT EVALUATION QUESTIONNAIRE Projekt CARETRAINING KWESTIONARIUSZ EWALUACJI PROJEKTU Please fill in the questionnaire below. Each person who was involved in (parts of) the project
Iwona Nurzyńska Fundusze Unii Europejskiej a system finansowania inwestycji ze środków publicznych w Polsce Instytut Rozwoju Wsi i Rolnictwa Polskiej Akademii Nauk Warszawa 2011 Iwona Nurzyńska European
Polska Federacja Klubów Business and Professional Women 5 października 2013 roku zainaugurowała we Dworze Podstolice Kampanię EQUAL PAY DAY na lata 2014-2015 pod hasłem: JOINT ACTION WSPÓLNA AKCJA. Polska
Łukasz Reszka Wiceprezes Zarządu Time for changes! Vocational activisation young unemployed people aged 15 to 24 Projekt location Ząbkowice Śląskie project produced in cooperation with Poviat Labour Office
Country fact sheet Noise in Europe 2015 overview of policy-related data Poland April 2016 The Environmental Noise Directive (END) requires EU Member States to assess exposure to noise from key transport
Warsaw, 11 January 2016 TGE ends the year 2015 with the highest-ever volumes on the electricity and gas sport markets Summary of trading activity on the electricity, natural gas and property rights markets
summary On logistics in a complex manner, at the Expo Silesia fair only Over two thousand visitors came to Expo Silesia on 25-27 May 2010 during the Logistics, and the Rail Transport Fair held at the same
Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu Wydział Zarządzania Specjalność: Inwestycje Kapitałowe i Strategie Finansowe Przedsiębiorstw Zastosowanie Internetu w małych i średnich przedsiębiorstwach Michał Goc Praca
A n g i e l s k i Phrasal Verbs in Situations Podręcznik z ćwiczeniami FRAGMENT Dorota Guzik Joanna Bruska Autorzy: Dorota Guzik, Joanna Bruska Konsultacja językowa: Tadeusz Z. Wolański Lektorzy: Maybe
ADVICERO TAX RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND 2014 WWW.ADVICERO.EU RETAIL MARKET IN POLAND The Polish retail market enjoyed substantial development in recent years and is expected to continue growing in the near
Business survey2016 Poland in the eyes of foreign investors Structureof respondents Structure of respondents- branches Services 43,1% Manufacturing 22,6% Energy and water supply, waste disposal 3,1% Trade
1 z 7 2015-05-14 18:32 Ankiety Nowe funkcje! Pomoc email@example.com Back Twoje konto Wyloguj firstname.lastname@example.org BIODIVERSITY OF RIVERS: Survey to teachers Tworzenie ankiety Udostępnianie
Angielski Biznes Ciekawie Conditional sentences (type 2) 1. Discuss these two types of mindsets. 2. Decide how each type would act. 3. How would you act? Czy nauka gramatyki języka angielskiego jest trudna?
ZESZYTY NAUKOWE UNIWERSYTETU SZCZECIŃSKIEGO nr 803 Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpieczenia nr 66 (2014) s. 435 442 Cluster Analysis of the Profitability of Insurance in Poland with Regard to the Type of
Solvency II 25 kwietnia 2014 Michał Herbich Solvency II system trzech filarów Pillar Pillar Pillar 1 Valuation of assets Valuation of liabilities (Technical Provisions) Capital requirements (Solvency Capital
INNOWACJE NA RYNKU FUNDUSZY INWESTYCYJNYCH W POLSCE W LATACH 2004 2010 Artykuł został powicony identyfikacji oraz charakterystyce nowych funduszy inwestycyjnych, które zostały utworzone w Polsce w latach
Perspektywy PDF ==>Download: Perspektywy PDF ebook By 0 Perspektywy PDF By 0 - Are you searching for Perspektywy pdf Books? Now, you will be happy that Perspektywy PDF is available at our online library
PRZEDMIOT ZAINTERESOWANIA / SUBJECT OF INTEREST 4% komunikacja tramwajowa i trolejbusowa / tram and trolleybus transport 2% finanse, consulting, doradztwo / finance, consulting, counselling 4% IT 2% organizacje
Społeczna odpowiedzialność biznesu perspektywy i kierunki rozwoju Redakcja Robert Karaszewski Anna Paluszek Spis treści Wstęp Janina Ochojska... 7 Robert Karaszewski... 11 I. Pierwsze refleksje Katarzyna
Problemy Inżynierii Rolniczej nr 1/2010 Jan Pawlak Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy w Falentach Oddział w Warszawie Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie CENY OLEJU NAPĘDOWEGO I ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ
NAJPOPULARNIEJSZYCH POJĘĆ BIZNESOWYCH PO ANGIELSKU PAWEŁ PABIANIAK ISBN 978-83-920280-6-2 SPIS TREŚCI Spis treści...5 Wstęp...7 1. Gospodarka Economy...9 2. Sprawy biznesowe Business matters...14 3. Rachunkowość,
Zofia Jacukowicz ANALIZA MINIMALNEGO WYNAGRODZENIA ZA PRACĘ Warszawa 2007 SPIS TREŚCI WSTĘP...11 Część I ROLA WYNAGRODZENIA MINIMALNEGO I ANALIZA JEGO KSZTAŁTOWANIA SIĘ WEDŁUG DANYCH STATYSTYCZNYCH W POLSCE
Poznań, 2012, September 20th Doctor Anna Scheibe adiunct in the Department of Economic Sciences PROJECT Syllabus for course Global Marketing on the study program: Management I. General information 1. Name
I Dane o projekcie kursu intensywnego, które należy zamieścić w raporcie z realizacji kursu intensywnego w roku akademickim 2012/13 - Arkusz IP 2012-13_General L.p. Tytuł kolumny 1 Project Numer projektu
ROBYG GROUP Presentation for investors Warsaw, 19th October, 2011 Niniejsza prezentacja nie podlega rozpowszechnianiu, bezpośrednio czy pośrednio, na terytorium albo do Stanów Zjednoczonych Ameryki, Australii,
Test sprawdzający znajomość języka angielskiego Imię i Nazwisko Kandydata/Kandydatki Proszę wstawić X w pole zgodnie z prawdą: Brak znajomości języka angielskiego Znam j. angielski (Proszę wypełnić poniższy
Share w2 Exit Questionnaire version 2.7 2006-09-29 XT001_ INTRODUCTION TO EXIT INTERVIEW 1. Kontynuuj XT006_ PROXY RESPONDENT'S SEX 1. Mężczyzna 2. Kobieta XT002_ RELATIONSHIP TO THE DECEASED IF XT002_
Agile at Capgemini Marek Majchrzak, Andrzej Bednarz Wrocław, 11.10.2011 AGENDA Agile as a strategic direction Examples of Agile Projects Agile Community 2 A strong presence in more than 30 countries Group
Katedra Rynku Transportowego Sustainable mobility: strategic challenge for Polish cities on the example of city of Gdynia dr Marcin Wołek Department of Transportation Market University of Gdansk Warsaw,
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 25 March 2014 8148/14 Interinstitutional File: 2014/0011 (COD) CLIMA 30 ENV 318 MI 307 IND 117 ENER 142 ECOFIN 305 TRANS 175 COMPET 191 CODEC 893 INST 173 PARLNAT
Meeting Big Data challenges in Leadership with Human-Computer Synergy. Presented by Dr. Morten Middelfart, CTO Big Data Data that exists in such large amounts or in such unstructured form that it is difficult
INFRASTRUKTURA I EKOLOGIA TERENÓW WIEJSKICH Nr 2/2005, POLSKA AKADEMIA NAUK, Oddział w Krakowie, s. 27 33 Komisja Technicznej Infrastruktury Wsi Marcin Hyski ANALIZA ZDOLNOŚCI DO REALIZACJI WYDATKÓW INWESTYCYJNYCH
Umowa Licencyjna Użytkownika Końcowego End-user licence agreement Umowa Licencyjna Użytkownika Końcowego Wersja z dnia 2 września 2014 Definicje GRA - Przeglądarkowa gra HTML5 o nazwie Sumerian City, dostępna
Perspektywy budownictwa Od 2005 roku budownictwo jest najszybciej rozwijającym się sektorem polskiej gospodarki i wiele wskazuje na to, że pozostanie ono liderem wzrostu przez kilka następnych lat. Czynniki
April 22, 2012 Vice-mayor of Zakopane Wojciech Solik Tatrzanski Park Narodowy Director Pawel Skawinski (host) Polish Ministry of the Environment Chief Specialist for National Parks Jan Reklewski Tatras
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 29 August 2013 13174/13 Interinstitutional File: 2013/0224 (COD) ENV 782 MAR 119 MI 708 ONU 86 CODEC 1921 INST 459 PARLNAT 214 COVER NOTE from: Polish Senate date
SIŁA EKSPORTU POLSKIEJ BRANŻY KOSMETYCZNEJ THE POWER OF EXPORT IN POLISH COSMETICS INDUSTRY KATARZYNA OLĘDZKA Brand Manager Verona Products Professional AGENDA 1. Branża kosmetyczna w Polsce i na świecie
Struktura organizacyjna Pekao Banku Hipotecznego SA Stałe Komitety Komitet ALCO Obszar Prezesa Zarządu Komitet Kredytowy Komitet Ryzyka Operacyjnego Biznesowy Komitet Kontroli Wewnętrznej Biuro Obsługi
Przedszkole Nr 1 w Zabrzu ANKIETA ul. Reymonta 52 41-800 Zabrze tel./fax. 0048 32 271-27-34 email@example.com http://jedyneczka.bnet.pl ŚWIAT BAJEK MOJEGO DZIECKA Drodzy Rodzice. W związku z realizacją
Quarterly consolidated financial statement of Apator Group for the first quarter 2015 2015 1 1. Selected financial data containing essential items of condensed financial statement 2 w tys. zł/ in thousands