Bank i Kredyt. National Bank of Poland s Journal on Economics and Finance

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1 ROK I Bnk Krdy Bnk Krdy Czopmo NBP pośwęcon konom fnnom Nonl Bnk of Polnd Journl on Economc nd Fnnc luy 8 3 Andrá Bodor Dvd A. Roblno Mchł Rukowk How Mndory Pnon Affc Lbor Supply Dcon nd Humn Cpl Accumulon? Opon o Brd h Gp bwn Economc Thory nd Polcy Anly Jk obowązkow ymy mryln wpływą n dcyz doycząc podży ły robocz kumulcę kpłu ludzko? Możlwośc zmnzn luk mędzy orą konom nlzą polyk opodrcz 9 Zof Jnkwcz Dnu Kołodzczyk Mchnzmy kzłown cn w przdęborwch polkch n l zchowń frm z rfy uro Th Prc-n Bhvour of Polh Frm. Compron Bwn h Euro Ar nd Polnd 43 Tomz Włodrczyk Wpływ wypowdz komnrzy członków Rdy Polyk Pnężn n krzywą dochodowośc. Bdn półln fkywnośc nformcyn rynku konrków FRA wpów procnowych Th Influnc of Polh Monry Polcy Councl Mmbr Vrbl Commn on h Yld Curv. Th Anly of h Sm-ron Form Informonl Effcncy of FRA nd IRS Mrk 6 Krzyzof Jckowcz Joln Zombr Now Umow Kpłow. Ewoluc czy rwoluc? Rvw of h book by Joln Zombr Th Nw Cpl Accord. Evoluon or Rvoluon? 66 Anzk Alƒk Bożn Mkołczyk Infrrukur fnnow MSP w krch Un Europk Rvw of h book by Bożn Mkołczyk Th Fnncl Infrrucur of SME n Europn Unon Counr Europk Inrc Monrn duconl nr n Polh only) Mch Lchowcz Koncpc wpólnych obzrów wluowych Concp of h Snl Currncy Ar

2 Rd Nukow/Scnfc Councl Pr Bcké Orrchch Nonlbnk) Wocch Chrmz Unvry of Lcr) Snłw Gomułk London School of Economc nd Polcl Scnc) Mrk Gór Szkoł Główn Hndlow) Mrk Gruzczyńk Szkoł Główn Hndlow) Urzul Grzlońk Szkoł Główn Hndlow) Dnu Hübnr Europn Common) Krzyzof Ju Akdm Ekonomczn w Wrocłwu) Brłom Kmńk Unvry of Mrylnd; Th World Bnk) Jrzy Konczny Wlfrd Lurr Unvry) Wocch Mcwk Unwry Wrzwk) Krzyzof Mrczwk Szkoł Główn Hndlow; Inyu Bdń Rynku Konumpc Konunkur) Ew Mklzwk Unwry Ekonomczny w Krkow) Tmohy P. Opl DPul Unvry Chco) Wold Orłowk Nzlżny Ośrodk Bdń Ekonomcznych; Szkoł Bznu Polchnk Wrzwk) Zbnw Polńk zępc przwodncząco/dpuy Chrmn Nrodowy Bnk Polk; Szkoł Główn Hndlow) Boułw Przk Szkoł Główn Hndlow; Nrodowy Bnk Polk) Włw Przybylk-Kpuścńk Akdm Ekonomczn w Poznnu) Zbynk Rvnd Vyoká kol konomcká v Prz) Mchl A. Rob Amrcn Unvry; U.S. Commody Fuur Trdn Common) Mchł Rukowk Th World Bnk) Słwomr Snłw Skrzypk przwodnczący/chrmn prz/prdn Nrodowy Bnk Polk) Adlbr Wnklr Europn Cnrl Bnk) Chrl Wyploz Grdu Inu of Inrnonl Sud Gnv) Kolum Rdkcyn/Edorl Bord Por Bouzwk Tomz Chmlwk Elżb Czrny Krzyzof Gwk krrz kolum rdkcyno/an Edor) Młorz Iwncz-Drozdowk Ryzrd Kokozczyńk Adm Koronowk Wocch Pcho Boułw Przk zępc rdkor nczlno/dpuy Mnn Edor) Zbnw Polńk rdkor nczlny/mnn Edor) Andrz Rzońc Czry Wóck Zbnw Żółkwk Zodn z wykzm porządzonym przz Mnrwo Nuk Szkolncw Wyżzo dl porzb przyzł ocny prmryczn dnok nukowych publkcom nukowym w Bnku Krdyc" przyznwn 6 punków. Wr lkronczn rykułów publkownych w Bnku Krdyc" ą doępn z pośrdncwm rwu Socl Scnc Rrch Nwork hp:// Elcronc vron of h rcl publhd n "Bnk Krdy" r vlbl h Socl Scnc Rrch Nwork hp:// Wydwc/Publhr Nrodowy Bnk Polk Konk/Conc ulc Śwęokrzyk / -99 Wrzw Polnd l.: fx: ml: krzyzof.wk@ml.nbp.pl hp:// Prok/Proc DOCTORAD Skłd Druk/Typn nd prnn Drukrn NBP/Prnn Hou of h NBP Kork/Edn Dprmn Komunkc Społczn NBP/Dprmn of Informon nd Publc Rlon NBP Prnumr/Subcrpon RUCH SA - wpły n prnumrę przymuą: dnok kolporżow włścw dl mc zmzkn lub dzby prnumror dow w poób uzodnony). Wpły przymu Oddzł Krow Dyrybuc Pry RUCH SA n kono: Pko SA IV O/Wrzw lub k Oddzłu. Cn prnumry z zlcnm dowy z rncę o % wyżz od krow. Zlcn n prnumrę dwzową przymown od oób zmzkłych z rncą rlzown ą od dowolno numru w dnym roku klndrzowym. Wpły ą przymown n okry kwrln w rmn: do 5. - n I kw. nępno roku do n II kw.br. do 5.6 n III kw. br. do 5.9 n IV kw. br. Informc o wrunkch prnumry w RUCH SA OKDP ul. Jn Kzmrz 3/ Wrzw możn uzykć pod l ^ ^ Prnumr włn zmwn podynczych zmplrzy: Nrodowy Bnk Polk - Dprmn Komunkc Społczn ulc Śwęokrzyk / -99 Wrzw nkłd: kono: Cnrl NBP - Dprmn Oprcyno-Rchunkowy nr kon: NBP DOR r. - 4 zł z. - 7 zł

3 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc How Mndory Pnon Affc Lbor Supply Dcon nd Humn Cpl Accumulon? Opon o Brd h Gp bwn Economc Thory nd Polcy Anly * Jk obowàzkow ymy mryln wpływà n dcyz doyczàc pod y ły robocz kumulc kpłu ludzko? Mo lwoêc zmnzn luk m dzy orà konom nlzà polyk opodrcz Andrá Bodor Dvd A. Roblno Mchł Rukowk ** Rcvd: 8 Jun 7 fnl vron rcvd: Jnury 8 ccpd: 5 Jnury 8 Abrc Srzczn Mndory pnon ym cn hv nv mpc on ndvdul vn nd lbor upply dcon. In prculr dfnd bnf pnon chm h r no curlly fr cn cr ncnv for rly rrmn nd hrfor rduc lbor upply nd h ock of humn cpl. Afr rvw of frqunly ppld pproch o h ncnv nrd by pnon ym h ppr dvlop n ndcor o prdc h -pcfc rrmn probbl nducd by prculr pnon ym vn hronou ndvdul prfrnc. Th ppr hn dcrb how h ndcor could b ud o proc h z of h lbor forc by ndr nd kll lvl nd corrpondnly h dynmc of humn cpl ccumulon. Fnlly h ppr dvlop of lf-cycl ncom mur o how h pnon ym ffc dcon rrdn h upply of lbor n h publc nd prv cor. Th mhod r llurd n h c of Morocco. Kyword: lf cycl modl lbor upply humn cpl rrmn polc ob nd occuponl mobly JEL: D9 J J4 J6 J6 Obowązkow ymy mryln moą mć nywny wpływ n ndywduln dcyz doycząc ozczędnośc orz podży ły robocz. W zczólnośc ymy mryln o zdfnownym śwdcznu kór n ą kurln prwdlw moą wrzć zchęy do wczśnzo przchodzn n mryurę orncząc ym mym podż ły robocz orz zoby kpłu ludzko. W nnzym rykul po dokonnu przlądu częo oownych poobów ocny zchę worzonych przz ymy mryln oprcowlśmy wkźnk kóry łuży do okrśln prwdopodobńw przśc n mryurę wdłu wku) wymuzono konkrnym ymm mrylnym po uwzlędnnu ndywdulnych prfrnc o ndnorodnym chrkrz. W dlz częśc rykułu pokzumy k możn wykorzyć n wkźnk do pronozown wlkośc ły robocz wdłu płc wku pozomu umęnośc kż dynmk kumulc kpłu ludzko. W końcow częśc rykułu omwmy zbór mrnków dochodu w cyklu życowym łużących do ocny poobu w k ym mrylny wpływ n dcyz doycząc podży ły robocz w korz pńwowym prywnym. Do zlurown ych mod użylśmy przykłdu Mrok. Słow kluczow: modl cyklu życ podż prcy kpł ludzk prormy mryln zdy przchodzn n mryurę moblność ły robocz * Th ppr hould no b condrd h offcl poon of h World Bnk n ny rrd. For uful commn nd nh h uhor would lk o hnk Frnco Bourunon Robr Holzmnn Edwrd Whhou nd Muph Nbl wll h prcpn h prnon of h ppr n h Inrnonl Rrch Confrnc on Socl Scury ornzd by h Inrnonl Socl Scury Aocon n Wrw n Mrch 7; h World Bnk Econom Forum n Aprl 7 nd h World Bnk MENA Chf Econom Smnr Sr n My 7. Th uhor lo cknowld h hlp of Anc Monu wh h rvw of h lrur. ** Th World Bnk. Corrpondn uhor -ml: Mrukowk@worldbnk.or

4 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8. Inroducon Dfnd bnf DB) pnon ym uully fnncd on py--you-o b ofn mbd bd mcroconomc dn fur h cr doron n vn nd lbor dmnd/upply dcon. Th ppr focu on wo h r rlvn from h pon of vw of lbor mrk: ) ncnv o rr rly; nd ) nuonl frmnon h cn ffc h mobly of h lbor forc. Non of h fur nhrnly bul no DB ym bu h fc h n ovrwhlmn mory worldwd offr ncnv o rr rly nd r pl no pr ubym for dffrn profonl roup ypclly cvl rvn mlry nd prv cor workr). Th conrbuon of h ppr o dvlop nlycl ool h cn b ud o h mnud of h doron prculrly n h prnc of lmd d nd o conduc x-n mn of h mpc of lrnv rform. Th mhod nd rul prnd hr r ll prlmnry nd hould b n pr of brodr rrch nd o mprov h mn of h lbor mrk mpc of rform n h ocl nurnc ym. Mo of h rrch on h mpc of ncnv on rly rrmn h concnrd on OECD counr whch hv xprncd dy drop n rrmn dp ubnl ncr n lonvy hrouhou h h cnury. Mo rcnly h nrnonl rrch proc conducd n wlv OECD counr un h m mhodoloy Grubr W 999; 4; nd forhcomn) h found h h r mory of ocl cury ym n h counr provd ncnv o lv h lbor forc rly nd h hr ron rlonhp bwn h ncnv nd h whdrwl of oldr workr from h lbor forc. In ddon Hrbron nd Orz 3) hv md h rly rrmn provon n h OECD counr co on vr 7.5% of ponl nnul OECD oupu. Thy lo howd h h doron crd by rly rrmn cn b furhr ccnud by h n of h populon. For xmpl hy md h ml lbor forc prcpon n OECD counr would hv o r from 66% o 7% from 3 o ) o kp h co of rly rrmn h 3 lvl n. Mor nrlly h bn ud h lmnn ncnv for rly rrmn n mporn polcy nrvnon o m h mcroconomc mpc of hrnkn lbor forc h populon Olvr l. 5). Th vdnc from OECD counr lo how h cun down on rly rrmn ncnv hrouh h rform of ocl cury ym cn hv n mporn ffc on lbor forc prcpon nd pov fcl mplcon from wo ourc: ) rducd dmnd for fcl uppor h fnncl uon of h prorm mprov; nd ) ncrd ovrnmn x rvnu. Th xpcd vn r vry lr o 4% of currn prorm co) nd counr could nr much % of GDP n ovrnmn rvnu ruln from hhr lbor forc prcpon mon oldr workr. Th nuonl frmnon of h pnon ym nohr ourc of lbor mrk doron. Frmnon xplnd by h mrnc of occuponl pnon chm h prcdd h dvlopmn of mndory ovrnmn pnon chm. Indd n om counr h pnon chm for crn occupon.. publc rvn) offr nfcn poron of h ol mploy compnon pck. Th frmnon of h pnon ym nfcn ourc of conomc nffcncy n vrl c. Byond h lo of conom of cl n dmnron w h lck of or lmd) porbly of pnon rh cro pnon chm whch nduc lbor mrk frcon. Indd h lck of porbly of pnon rh mk h prc of pron from ponlly nffcn mch oo hh for h pron o hppn. Th lbor mrk h plc whr h dynmc mchn proc of phycl cpl nd lbor hppn. Any dmnrv rul h prvn h occurrnc of producv mch or h do no llow h pron of mch h cn b domnd n ffcncy by nohr lbor-cpl mch ulmly cu conomc nffcncy nd do no llow h full ulzon of h n from rd. Th ohr problm wh nuonl frmnon h mrnc of dffrn mplc r of rurn on conrbuon cro h vrou pnon chm. Th dor h rol of w h ym nformn bou h prc/vlu of lbor ffor. Hh ndrc compnon hrouh hh nrnl r of rurn IRR) n h publc cor for nnc cn cr ncnv for unmployd ndvdul o quu for ovrnmn ob. Dord IRR lo cr ncnv owrd bd nvmn n humn cpl owrd h kll dmndd n h publc cor. If crn kll quu for ob n h publc cor hor cn b obrvd n h prv cor whch comprom nvmn nd rowh. Th ppr propo hr cl of nrumn o nlyz upply d doron n lbor mrk mrn from h mndory pnon ym. Fr w dvlop n ndcor o mur ncnv for rly rrmn whch k no ccoun h rd-off bwn conumpon nd lur vn whn h drbuon of ndvdul prfrnc no known. W how h h ndcor upror o ndrd prox ud o nlyz ncnv for rly rrmn uch h lop of h curv of nrnl r of rurn on conrbuon nd h mrnl chn n pnon wlh. Scond w For mor on h lbor upply conqunc of nrou rly rrmn provon Blondl Scrp 998) nd Borch-Supn Schnbl 998). For n xnv rvw of h mnd lbor mrk SLM) lrur pl Tubmn Wchr 986). Furhrmor for k on mnd lbor mrk n h c of Swzrlnd Sou-Poz 3).

5 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc how how h ndcor could b lnkd o modl h proc h kll compoon of h lbor forc by nd ndr o h ffc h pnon polcy h on rrmn dcon h ccumulon of humn cpl nd hrouh h chnnl conomc rowh. Fnlly w dvlop mhodoloy o how frmnd pnon ym ffc ncnv o mov cro cor nd dcon bou nvmn n ducon. To llur h u of h ool w k h c of Morocco. Indd w condr Morocco ood rprnv of mddlncom counr wh bdly dnd nd frmnd dfnd-bnf py--you-o pnon chm. Hnc our concluon cn b pplcbl for ohr mddl-ncom nd o om xn hh-ncom counr. Th rucur of h ppr follow. Th nx con Scon ) dvlop n ndcor o mur ncnv for rly rrmn. Th mhodoloy o h conomc co of rly rrmn prnd nd llurd n Scon 3. Scon 4 concrnd wh h nly of doron rld o nvmn n ducon nd h mobly of h lbor forc. Fnlly Scon 5 conclud.. Murn doron n rrmn dcon Th ndrd ndcor ud o ncnv for rly rrmn r h nrnl r of rurn IRR) on conrbuon nd h chn n pnon wlh vn rrmn. 3 Th ndcor howvr hv hr mor problm. Fr hy do no cpur h rd-off bwn conumpon nd lur whch r h cor of h rrmn dcon. Scond hy nor h nrply bwn bnf formul lbly condon nd ndvdul ud owrd rk. Thrd hy would u h m rrmn bhvor o popl wh dncl or mlr crr ph whr w obrv hronou rrmn vn for ndvdul who r mlr or dncl n hr obrvbl chrcrc from h prpcv of h pnon ym. Th mplcon h ny concluon n rm of whhr ndvdul hv wk or ron ncnv o dly rrmn cn b mldn. In h con w propo complmnry ndcor h k no ccoun h rd-off bwn conumpon nd lur wll h lvl of rk vron of ndvdul. Th ndcor bd on h ndrd nr-mporl uly mxmzon frmwork. In h frmwork ndvdul choo how much o v how much o work nd whn o rr n ordr o 3 Th nrnl r of rurn on conrbuon h r h qu h prn vlu of conrbuon wh h prn vlu of pnon. I cn b nrprd h mplc nr r h h pnon ym py o pln mmbr on hr conrbuon. Th pnon wlh on h ohr hnd h prn vlu of xpcd fuur pnon. For dcuon on h u of h IRR nd h ncrmnl chn n pnon wlh n n h ncnv rucur of pnon ym Qur Whhou 6). mxmz om uly funcon of conumpon nd lur. Formlly w hv: Mx : * * * l R.. c * R U * c l v U c h y y w y P * * R v * * h l f R * y r f R whr U.) ndrd uly funcon cpurn h rd-off bwn c conumpon lw c) nd lur l) v U c l) ) h probbly of urvvl o ρ h r of m prfrnc y ncom w lbor producvy h ol vlbl workn m m h vn r R h rrmn h mxmum numbr of yr n ndvdul cn lv nd h nry o h lbor mrk. Th funcon P.) v h vlu of rrmn R) ncom nurwhch R dpnd ucr.8 on p vn upw R nr v R r wll polcy prmr θ.. h yp of R pnon upym). R ) vw cknowld h vry ron 3) R mplc umpon h ndvdul who rr cn only R rcv.. : cpnon R wr ncom ; p R ) oppod P wo workn n h nforml cor or forml cor whou conrbun). Th mplfcon ncry n h vron of h ppr h focu mnly on nrl mhod. I cn nd hould b rlxd n rl world polcy pplcon. Idlly on would lk o olv ym uch ) for vry mmbr n vn pnon pln nd m conomrclly h ky unknown prmr: h prfrnc for lur nd h coffcn of rk vron. Th could b don n prncpl by un ndvdul rcord for rrd ndvdul. Th opml rrmn by ndvdul nd hrfor h mpld dny of rrmn do no ccp clo form oluon bu mulor of h dny cn b ud o m h modl prmr by y mxmum lklhood or xpcd non-lnr l qur Gourroux Monfor 996). On could hn how chn n polcy prmr would ffc rrmn prn nd h ocd conomc co vn h xpcd voluon of w for dffrn pln mmbr nd ohr mcroconomc nd dmorphc vrbl. 4 Ofn howvr h ncry d r no vlbl. Th xrc lo compuonlly m 4 An lrnv mor clcl pproch would b o m rducd form modl of rrmn funcon of ndvdul chrcrc pnon ym prmr nd myb mcro ndcor h ronl lvl. A fr problm wh h pproch howvr h h vron n polcy prmr uully do no x. Scond vn f xd bnf formul nd lbly condon r vry complx. On could bundl om rul n bnry vcor bu hn on would no b bl o how chn n rul would ffc rrmn bhvor. Fnlly nd mor mpornly dpndn on h rucur of h modl lkly h h md prmr rflc cully ndvdul dcon vn h rucur of h pnon ym. If h rul chn hn h prmr would nd o chn. Thu h nd for rucurl modl. ) )

6 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8 dmndn. Hnc n h vron of h ppr w focu on mplfd vron of modl ) h um dp uncrny n h drbuon of prfrnc rrdn conumpon lur nd rk. 5 Th mplfd vron h w nlyz hr only focu on h rrmn dcon kn h vn r nd lbor upply vn. I fx h vn r qul o h conrbuon * R r durn rrmn * conumpon Mx : qul o h pnon) * * * U c l v U c h vnd l R h * R mxmum lbor upply qul o 6/365 6 h *.. c ol numbr of y workn dy n yr). So rrd ndvdul would hv lur qul o whl workn ndvdul would * hv lur * qul o 365 y w h l f R 6)/365. I furhr um prod uly funcon * of h form: y P y r f R c lw U c l) ) ) whr cpur rd-off bwn conumpon nd lur nd l h coffcn of rk vron. Th concp of uly m brc bu n prcc mply wy o nroduc non-lnr lnk bwn nur R ucr.8 upr v chn n h lvl of conumpon R nd lur nd h vlu/hppn drvd R from hm. Th up R ) v curvur of R h uly funcon wh rpc o h combnd conumpon-lur rumn R.. : c ffcd R wr ; p R ) P w by h coffcn of rk vron. Th hhr h coffcn h hhr h curvur. Th nc of rk vron h rk vr ndvdul vlu lvl of conumpon c h chvd wh % probbly mor hn lvl of conumpon c h rlzd wh probbly p [] vn f c =c p+ p) [.. vn f h xpcd vlu of conumpon dncl n boh c]. Gvn h uly funcon vn umpon for h ph of w nd h prmr of h pnon ym pobl o clcul h opml rrmn funcon of h prmr nd l. 6 Th opml rrmn would b h whr h mrnl bnf of dlyn rrmn by on yr fll blow h mrnl co ll murd n uly rm. Th bnf r prumbly hhr pnon hhr conumpon ph nd conqunly hhr conumpon componn n h xpcd uly clculon. Th co dlyn h ncr n h lvl of lur nd rducn n ncom vn h conrbuon r. 5 A forhcomn ppr dcu n dl mhod for mor complx rl world pplcon whr vn nd lbor upply r ndonou. 6 Th mplc umpon hr h h drbuon of ndvdul rrmn cn b nrd un mpl of mnry ndvdul who r hronou n hr prfrnc prmr bu dncl ohrw vn n rm of w nd mploymn hor). Th n xrm c bu h ll cn provd uful nh on h ffc of h pnon ym on rrmn dcon. Th umpon rlxd n forhcomn ppr. R.. c y y y * * w h l f * R P y r f * R c lw U c l) ) Formlly h n n R of dlyn rrmn by on yr follow: nu R.. : c R R ucr.8 upr v up R ) v R w R R R R ; p R ) P w 3) whr w h w rcvd by h ndvdul nd h conrbuon r. So ndvdul wll dly rrmn lon nur)>. 7 ) Clrly on do no know h on drbuon of h prmr nd l whn h populon of pln mmbr. Aumn h h ndvdul r dncl n ll ohr dmnon h on drbuon of h prmr could b mpld o rplc h obrvd drbuon of rrmn. 8 Hnc on cn xplor lr numbr of c umn h h prmr r unformly drbud whn hr uppor. Th probbly of kpn c hn qul o h probbly of obrvn vn rrmn n h mprcl mpl. Morovr hrouh ) h mpln proc pobl o drv mp of funcon nur; l) h w ru provd unqu chrcrzon of h pnon ym nd 3) nform bou h mnud of pobl ncnv problm. In ddon on cn compu ummry ndcor h v h prcn of c whr h opml rrmn blow vn hrhold. In fc h ndcor cn b clculd ll pobl rrmn h nr profl of rrmn cn b nrd for vn pnon ym. Th n fc vry rlvn o nform chn n h drbuon of rrmn probbl h rul from chn n prmr whn pnon ym curl modl. W nx pply h ndcor o h hr mndory pnon chm n Morocco. Th CNSS Conl Nonl d Sécuré Socl) h chm for prv cor workr. Th CMR C Mrocn d Rr) h cronym for h cvl rvn pnon chm. Ohr publc cor workr nroll n h RCAR Rém Collcf d Aurnc d Rr). 9 W compr our ndcor o h ndrd mur h IRR nd h pnon wlh. In h c of hr pnon fund h IRR nd h pnon wlh ndc h xnc of ncnv problm. Th IRR downwrd loppn for h CNSS nd h CMR un h ndvdul rcv l on hr conrbuon f hy dly rrmn Fur ). For xmpl n ndvdul rrn 55 from 7 Th dcon rul h rl on h n chn of nu.) um h nu) monoonclly dcrn. 8 Th n xrm c bu h ll cn provd uful nh on h ffc of h pnon ym on rrmn dcon. Th umpon rlxd n forhcomn ppr. 9 Th ky prmr of h hr ym r ummrzd n h Appndx. R) )

7 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc pw ) PW 4) Skll Skll ) w PW h CNSS would rcv n mplc rl r of rurn on conrbuon of 5% pr yr whl n ndvdul rrn 6 would rcv only 4%. Th occur 6 P ) bcu h ccrul r no dud funcon of Pop h rrmn 6 ) o * SR corrcly k 6 no ) ccoun h ndvdul rrn rlr nd hrfor conrbun 6 NoEd ) for horr prod of m nd rcvn pnon for lonr Pop prod 6 hould ) * lo SRrcv lowr 6 ) pnon. Conrry o h CNSS nd h CMR h RCAR do du h ccrul r funcon of h rrmn o h pon h ndvdul rrn l rcv ] Mor ) * hhr IRR. Hnc on would lk o conclud h n h c E of h RCAR hr r pov ncnv o dly * rrmn. Skll How ron r hy? ) * TR ) A dffrn pcur of h uon vn by h chn n h n pnon wlh occurrn rul of dly n h rrmn dcon. Smlrly o h n n uly dfnd ) n quon Mor 3) h chn ) n * n pnon wlh ruln from dlyn rrmn from * Skll o + vn by: ) * TR E ) Skll Skll Skll ) Mor ) * Skll pw ) ) w PW PW 4) whr PW h vlu of h pnon wlh rrn. SkllAccordn o 6 h P mur ) n h c of Morocco Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) E non of h pnon fund provd ru ncnv * Skll Skll 6 NoEd ) ) * for dlyd rrmn. Chn n pnon wlh r Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) nv for ll rrmn Fur ). Evn for h RCAR h rul u h currn dumn Skll ] Mor ) * o h ccrul r would no b uffcn o mov E 6 ndvdul * o Skll dly ) rrmn. Mor ) Th * TR CMR ) ) pculr * c. Th ym provd ron ncnv o ndvdul who * Skll r 59 yr old o dly rrmn ) by on yr. Th Skll ) Mor ) * bcu 6 h ccrul r ncr o.5% 7 * Skll ) * TR E ) from % for ll prvou yr of rvc. In prcc howvr w do obrv h n ll Skll ) pnon fund ndvdul Mor ) rr vrou * rrmn E. Th quon rlly n whch 8 * Skll ) * TR pnon ) fund h Fur Skll. Inrnl ) Mor r of rurn ) * on 9) conrbuon * Skll ) 5) TR ) 9) probbly of rrn rly hhr. I hr whr h mp nur α λ) for ch of h pnon fund bcom hlpful. Th mp wr clculd undr h umpon h w row n rl rm 3% pr yr nd h r of m prfrnc ρ.98 nnully. On 5) hundrd combnon of h prmr α nd λ wr ud wh α [..7] nd λ [.5 5]. Th rul r prnd n Fur 3. Th mp for ch fund vry dffrn nd chrcrz h bnf formul nd lbly condon n unqu wy. Ech ln whn h mp ocd wh vn combnon of h prmr α nd λ. In ll fund h ln cn b roupd 6 no hr cor. Fr ln whch r lwy blow h horzonl x. Th r ocd wh uly funcon h nvr nr ncnv o dly rrmn. Th n n xpcd uly from dlyn rrmn lwy nv nd ndvdul rr oon pobl n our xmpl 55. Th cond yp nvolv ln h r lwy 7 bov h horzonl x ndcn h h n from dlyn rrmn r lwy pov. Th ln corrpond o ndvdul who nvr hv ncnv o rr n h prod of nly hy could rr frwrd). Fnlly hr r ln whch cro h horzonl x. Th mor rlvn r h on h cro h x from bov. In h c h pon 8 of cron v h opml rrmn. In h c of h CNSS h mory of ln r hr bov or blow h horzonl x. So n h CNSS ndvdul wh crn propny for rrmn wll mo lkly rr oon pobl. In h CMR h mory of ln r blow h horzonl x cro h ln from blow nd hn cro h x n from bov. Hnc for ndvdul opml Th dcuon hr mplfd o no ll h pcl c of h nonmonoon nu.) ln wh mulpl nrcon wh h horzonl x r no dcud hr; howvr h bhvorl conqunc cn b ly drmnd un h m frmwork for h ndvdul wll. Fur. Chn n n pnon wlh by rrmn IRR % Rrmn Gn n pnon wlh of dlyn rrmn proporon vr rnn) Rrmn CNSS CMR RCAR CNSS CMR RCAR No: Th IRR r for mn wh lry qul o vr rnn who on h ym 5 nd conrbu connuouly unl rrmn. Rl w r umd o row 3%. Sourc: Auhor clculon. No: Sm umpon for Fur. In ddon h dcoun r ud for prn vlu clculon %. Sourc: Auhor clculon.

8 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8 o rr oon pobl up o 58. A 59 br o w on mor yr. A dcud blow h dord mp h mr rflc h pculry of h bnf formul bd on fnl w whr h ccrul r ncr from % o.5% 6. Th mp of h RCAR corrpond o ym h mor curlly fr. A mory of ndvdul wll no rr mmdly rrdl of hr propny o do o. Th bcu of h upwrd loppn IRR funcon. Th nformon cpurd n h mp cn b ummrzd by h probbly of rly rrmn dfnd hr h probbly of rrn 55. In ffc h normv probbly of rly rrmn vn h hr of ln yn blow h horzonl x for ll plu h on cron h horzonl x from bov lowr hn h vn fxd rrmn. A ud by h chr h probbly of rly rrmn hh n h CNSS. Indd for 4% of h c h opml rrmn 55. For h CMR h probbly of rly rrmn omwh lowr 36%). A prvouly ndcd h low probbly of rly rrmn corrpond o h RCAR 7%). So vn f h pnon wlh ndcor ud lck of ncnv for dlyd rrmn n rly mo probbly h RCAR do ncour rrmn hhr whch lo conn wh h lop of h IRR funcon. In concluon h uly mp nd h normv mor of h probbly of rly rrmn provd mor prc nformon bou h ncnv o rr rly vn ndvdul wh hronou prfrnc. Th lop of h IRR funcon nd h chn n pnon wlh r uful o fl doron bu on nd o b crful whn drvn concluon on cul rrmn bhvor bd on h mur. Anohr rcv fur of h propod ndcor h h clculon r mpl. Thrfor fuur mn of pnon nuon nd nrnonl compron of h ffc of bnf formul nd lbly condon on rrmn dcon could bnf from h propod clculon. Fnlly h ndcor uful o x-n h ponl mpc h polcy chn cn hv on rrmn dcon. A dcud n h nx con h dcon cn ffc h lvl of humn cpl of vn counry nd hrfor rowh ponl. 3. Emn h co of rly rrmn n rm of h lo of producv cpc of h conomy A dcud n h prvou con from h ndvdul pon of vw h dcon o rr choc h rflc Fur 3. Uly mp for h rrmn dcon CNSS CMR RCAR Sourc: Auhor clculon.

9 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc Fur 4. Normv probbly of rly rrmn CNSS CMR RCAR Normv probbly of rrmn 55 Sourc: Auhor clculon. prfrnc bwn lur nd conumpon. From h pon of vw of h counry howvr rrmn rprn lo of humn cpl prculrly whn occur rly. Sndrd nly n pnon polcy focu on h fcl co of rly rrmn h lo of conrbuon nd h ncr n h pnon wlh h ndvdul rcv). Hr w ru h h conomc co of rly rrmn hould b lo kn no ccoun. In h con w propo mhodoloy o h mpc h pnon ym cn hv on humn cpl ccumulon nd conomc rowh by nfluncn rrmn dcon nd hrfor lbor forc prcpon r for ndvdul wh dffrn kll lvl. 3.. Th modl from kll formon o humn cpl Th modl dvlopd hr proc h lbor forc by ndr nd ducon lvl. 3 Aumn compv nvronmn w chrcrz h humn cpl of ndvdul wh h mrnl produc of hr lbor. Th mrnl produc pproxmd by ndrd w funcon h w dcrb n h nx con. 4 Th f p o proc h ol populon by nd ndr on h b of xpcon bou fuur frly nd morly r. Hnc vcor Pop ) compud whr = f ml nd = f fml rfr o nd rfr o h m prod. Th modl could b ud wll o h conomc mpc of h ffc of h pnon ym on h of nrnc o h forml lbor mrk. In h ppr h rm humn cpl ud for h humn cpl cully offrd for work.. h humn cpl ock do no nclud h ponlly hhly producv bu ncv populon. For vrou concp of humn cpl Bckr 993). 3 Th mhodoloy dvlopd hr buld upon Cörvr l. ) nd Hk 994). 4 Th mprcl nly of h houhold urvy prnd n h follown con nclud h conomc cor n h of xplnory vrbl drmnn w. Snc h lbor forc procon modl do no hv cor dmnon h pcfcon of h w quon om conomc cor from h of rh-hnd d vrbl. Th nx p o proc h upply of kll by h ducon cor. Th upply chrcrzd by h vcor Skllσ ) whr σ= rfr o nrolld n n nuon of h ducon ym σ= rfr o ho who r no nrolld n h ym of ducon whl {no ducon yr of prmry ducon nd yr of prmry ducon } n lmn of h compl of duconl nmn cor. pw ) ) w PW PW 4) W r by modln nrollmn n prmry ducon. W hv: Skll 6 P ) Skll 6 NoEd ) whr SR =6 ) h cholrzon r h mndory prmry Skll ducon ] nry Mor. P rfr ) * o E yr of prmry ducon NoEd rfr o no * Skll ) * TR ) ducon ). Tho who do no nr prmry ducon r rrd ou of chool populon whou ducon. Skll ) Mor ) * Bd on h m r on ducon nrollmn * Skll ) * TR E ) ock dvncmn r rpon r nd drop-ou r n ExE+) kll dvlopmn rnon mrx TR) nrd Skll whr E ) h numbr Mor of dnc ) * duconl nmn cor. TR ) E h probbly of dvncn from ducon cory * Skll ) * TR ) o ducon cory. In h pcl c whn = TR pw ) rfr ) o rpon ) w probbly. 5 TR E+) PW PW 4) dfnd Skll h probbly of ) uccfully Mor compln ) * 9) duconl lvl * nd Sklllvn h ducon ) ym fr Skll h uccful 6 complon. P ) So how do h modl follow duconl Pop nmn 6 ) * SR n ocy? 6 ) A prculr 5) ducon Skll lvl 6 cn NoEd b rchd ) bcu ndvdul dvnc n Pop hr ducon 6 ) * or SR rp. In 6 h ) nrl c w hrfor hv: whr Mor ) h ndr nd m pcfc morly Skll probbly ) of dyn Morbwn ) * nd. Clrly for * Skll mny c TR )= ) * TR mnn E ) h hr no rnon ph bwn nd. Alo no h h modl only concrnd bou n flow. Byond h Skll of nrn ) prmry Morducon ) h * n flow E r lwy whn nd from nvr from oud) h ducon ym. * Skll ) * TR ) Tho who fnh uccfully hr nndd lvl of ducon r rnond ou h chool ym ccordn Skll o h follown ) Mor quon: ) * 9) * Skll ) 5 No h h formulon um h h rnon probbl only dpnd on h o nd from ducon cor nd ndpndn of ndr nd m. Th ron why w do no prn mor nrl formulon h w umd n only dmnonl rnon rry n h qunv xmpl w prn n h ppr. Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) Skll ] Mor ) * * E Skll ) * TR ) 5) 6) ) 7 6 8

10 pw ) ) w PW PW 4) Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) 5) Skll pw ) 6 ) NoEd w PW ) PW 4) Mkrokonom Skll 6 P ) Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) Bnk Krdy luy 8 Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) Skll 6 6 PNoEd ) ) Skll Pop ] 6 ) * SR Mor SR 6 ) 6 ) ) * E Skll * Skll 6 NoEd ) ) * TR ) Pop 6 ) * SR 6 ) Skll ] Mor ) * E * Skll ) * TR ) Skll Skll ) Mor ) * ] Mor ) * 7) * Skll E ) * TR E ) * Skll ) * TR ) Skll Th probbly ) of droppn Mor ou of ) chool * h dffrnc Skll * Skll bwn ) nd Mor h um ) * of TR h ) Elmn * ) n E vn row of h rnon mrx. W hv: Skll * Skll ) Mor ) * ) TR * ) * Skll ) * TR E Skll ) Mor ) ) * 8) E * Skll ) * TR ) Skll ) Mor ) * 9) Fnlly * Skll h voluon of ho ) E who lrdy lf * Skll ) * TR ) h Skll ducon ym ) Mor ccordn o ) h * follown quon: 9) * Skll ) 6 In prcc w hd o mk crn homony umpon n h c of h lbor forc prcpon r rry nc h lvl of h dron of k h vlbl PVd nf lon h duconl nf nmn k dmnon b rw ) nuffcn. k Indd h only d vlbl n h c of Morocco com from h ILO whch only publh nd ndr pcfc lbor forc prcpon r LABORSTA db). Skll ) Mor ) * * Skll ) 9) 9) 6 d of h lbor mrk.. mplcly um h ho 7 who nr h lbor forc wll cully ob 6 nd hu bcom pr of h producv) humn cpl ock. Hnc our procon rlly conu 7 n nly of ponl humn cpl. In ddon h 8 ndvdul producvy vlu h w drv r ocd 7 wh h nrcon of lbor upply nd dmnd vn pon n m nd hn w um h 8 h nrcon pplcbl o h fuur. No h h producvy of vn un of humn cpl cn 8 chn rul of chnolocl pror. Our m of humn cpl hould hrfor b condrd lowr bound. 3.. Qunv xmpl: Th c of Morocco Th hrd p o modl h prcpon n h W llur h u of h modl n h c of Morocco. lbor forc mon ho ndvdul who r ou of h Fur 5 llur h dynmc of populon rowh ducon ym. Gvn nformon on h z of nd h kll compoon of h lbor forc procd LF h lbor ) forc LFPRnd lbor forc ) * prcpon Skll r ) h n h bln cnro for Morocco. Th quon h follown dny nd o hold: w k how chn n prcpon ) r nducd by chn n rrmn probbl would ffc LF ) LFPR ) * Skll ) h bln dynmc. A E Th rh-hnd pnl of Fur ) 6 llur h SumHumCp ) ) LF ) * HCC ) ) ml lbor forc prcpon r r hh cro whr LF h lbor forc rry nd LFPR h lbor h bord ncludn ponlly ffcd by rly A E forc SumHumCp prcpon ) rry. From LF) w ) hn * HCC m ) rrmn h pror o ) 6 whch h ELFPR ) or h ffcv lbor forc prcpon ndrd rrmn ). Th n pr du o h w r h xp only pply lnwo ndvdul ou of h chool low covr of h pnon ym ) n Morocco. Th ym. 6 ml lbor forc prcpon r for h 59 yr-old w Fnlly w xp r rdy lnwo urn h LF rry no cohor 84.3%! Thr m ) o b ll room for nf mur Eof humn cpl. Rw Rcll h w cn prdc w furhr ncrn ml cvy r bu h could h ndvdul humn cpl vlu for ll combnon fll h covr of h pnon 3) ym xpnd. In of ndr RP w nd duconl w LF nf ) LFPR E R ) * w nmn w cor Skll ) fc h rn of lbor forc prcpon r of 5 HCC ). Thn h voluon of humn cpl 59 yr-old mn xpcd ) 3) o mov from 84.3%-95.7% RP w w vn by o 74.7%-94.3% by 4. In conr fml lbor forc A E * prcpon r r low cro h bord nd ply nf SumHumCp nf r ) v 4) ) LF ) * HCC ) dcrn from ) 5 o 59 from 8.7% o 6.%. * nf nf r v Whl fml cvy xpcd 4) o ncr h By ddn σ=3 h rrmn cory h ply dcrn cvy pror o 6 xpcd mpl n cn b ud o drcly w h ffc o pr.. n % of 5 yr-old womn r xpnw ln w ) h chn n rrmn probbl hv on h lbor xpcd o b mployd or kn mploymn whl nw p ' forc PVby ndr nf nd ' yp pof kll ' PV nd hrfor nf n only 35.3% of h 59 yr-old 5) womn xpcd o p ' PV h lvl of humn nf cpl. ' p ' PV Hnc on cn nf 5) nf E compr k blon o h lbor forc). h PV dynmc nf Rw of humn cpl nf undr k h w b u-quo r) 3) k PV RP W 5 pobl cnro for chnn nf w k w nf k b r) wh h dynmc of humn cpl k n h c whr rly rrmn bhvor nd ocd lbor forc prcpon r chn rul of chn n prcpon. Th fr cnro um h fml pnon bnf formul nd lbly * condon. lbor prcpon prn chn mmdly nd nf nf r v 4) Admdly hr r lmon wh h h nw lbor forc prcpon r of womn d propod nlycl frmwork. Fr h choc of h 5 o 6 r dncl o h of h 5 yr-old cohor. mur of humn nw cpl only condr h upply Th cond cnro h m for womn bu w lo p ' PV nf ' p ' PV nf 5) 5) 5) 6 7 W do no ddr lbor forc prcpon prn byond 6 for wo 3 ron: ) rly rrmn rul r no pplcbl o h roup nd only dlyd rrmn bonu could ffc h cvy of h nron; ) h dpron of h of ndvdul hlh condon r o lr byond 6 h rrmn ncnv cnno b ffcvly d whou condrn h conrn.

11 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc Fur 5. Populon rowh nd kll compoon of h lbor forc n Morocco % % L hn prmry Prmry plu voconl rnn Lowr condry plu voconl rnn BAC xmnon nd voconl rnn Prmry Lowr condry Uppr condry nd BAC xmnon Hhr ducon Sourc: ILO uhor clculon. fx h ml lbor forc prcpon r 5 lvl w do no llow ml prcpon r o fll lk n h bln cnro. Th hrd cnro um h m m nvrn ml cvy r h 5 lvl bu n h c fml cvy prn do no chn. Scnro 4 nd 5 ncr h lbor forc prcpon r of womn d 5 o 6 by 5% mmdly whou mpon m nvrn ml lbor forc prcpon r rpcvly. Fur 7 ummrz h rul. Rcll h h mor drmnn of h voluon of humn cpl.. populon rowh kll dvlopmn hrouh ducon nd h bln lbor forc prcpon ph drmn bln ncrn ph for humn cpl. In h c of Morocco h nnul r of humn cpl rowh nd 3.56% n 6 nd h r xpcd o dcr o.% by 4. In mo c h humn cpl rowh r would b hhr hn h bln f corrcd rly rrmn ncnv convnc nfcnly hhr ro of ho who r clo o h ndrd rrmn o rmn n h lbor forc. Fur 6. A/ndr pcfc lbor forc prcpon r n 5 nd 4 % Fml % Ml bln 4 bln LFPR rmn 5 lvl LFPR rmn 5 lvl 5 5% LFPR ncr for % LFPR ncr for bln 4 bln 5 No: For fml prcpon r r umd o dv from h bln du o chn n rly rrmn provon mn x). Gndr nd roup pcfc cvy r procon r vlbl from h ILO unl byond h lnr convrnc umd o h cvy r of h ILO r cory mor dvlopd ron rchn lvl n 75. Sourc: ILO Lbor Economclly Acv Populon Em nd Procon nd uhor clculon.

12 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8 4. Pnon ym frmnon nd lbor mobly Th con llur h ffc h frmnd pnon ym cn hv on ncnv o upply lbor n vn cor wll h mobly of h lbor cro cor. Th nly bd on mcro mulon of crr ph for ndvdul wh dffrn lvl of ducon workn n dffrn conomc cor nd hrfor blonn o dffrn pnon pln. Formlly m h w of n ndvdul of ndr ducon cory workn n cor xprd hr of vr rnn vn by: ) ) * ) Skll LFPR LF ) ) ) * ) A E HCC LF SumHumCp ) ln xp w w ) w w P R w w R E nf 3) * v r nf nf 4) k nf PV p nf PV p nw ' ' ' 5) ) whr r rpcvly h ndr nd lvl of ducon of h ndvdul nd h conomc cor whr h or h opr. 8 Hnc h mrnl ffc h xprnc) h on w dpnd on h chrcrc of h ndvdul nd h conomc cor. Gvn quon ) for ny vn ndvdul w cn compu n ncom flow cro lf. Th r vn by: 3) whr R= f h ndvdul rrd or R= ohrw P.) h funcon rurnn h pnon of h ndvdul funcon of polcy prmr of h 8 No h h vrbl rfr o vn r n rlr con o ndr n h pplcon of h con. rlvn pnon ym n h cor nd E ) funcon h qul o f n ndvdul h wll chv ducon lvl ou of chool or ohrw. Alo for mplcy w h nl nd h nl m o nd r ubu. Un 3) w cn compu nrnl r of rurn o mrnl nvmn n ducon. Th nrnl r of rurn r * ) of movn from ducon lvl o ducon lvl + chrcrzd by: 4) Fnlly w cn compu h xpcd n n of kn ob n cor m or wn o k ob n cor m + wh probbly p). Th vn by: 5) whr PV[] h prn vlu funcon. Th l rm n quon 5) ud o k no ccoun h n ndvdul who connully dly kn h ob n cor mh hv o ccumul om lvl of db o fnnc conumpon. Th prmr v h whn h ndvdul fr offrd h ob n cor. Hr h umpon h h ndvdul borrow frcon b of h n ncom flow h h or h would hv chvd by kn h ob n cor. W n pply h frmwork o h c of Morocco. Equon ) w md by un h houhold urvy for Morocco. W dfnd lvl of ducon for h purpo of h nly. In ddon w condr four conomc cor: prv forml non-rculurl cor h publc cor nd h rculurl/nforml cor. In h nly w conrucd crr ph. Th ph cro lvl of ducon wh four conomc cor nd wh hr yp of pnon fund. A bfor n ll c h rowh r of rl vr rnn 3% pr yr nd h dcoun r 4%. Th rul how mrkd dffrnc n h dynmc of w cro ducon lvl. Th lfhnd pnl of Fur 8 how h crr ph of hr ndvdul who work n h prv cor. On h no ducon h ohr h only condry ducon nd h hrd on h hhr ducon. No urprnly for h ndvdul wh no ducon h w curv r lowr lvl nd lo flr. Th vrou crr ph lo how h ndvdul workn n h publc cor rrdl of h lvl of ducon noy br uon boh n rm of w nd pnon rhhnd pnl n Fur 8). On h conrry ndvdul workn n h rculurl cor nd/or h urbn nforml cor rcv lowr w hn n h prv cor nd hy do no hv pnon. m nvrn ml LFPR fml LFPR ncr by 5% for 5 6 & m nvrn ml LFPR fml LFPR rmn 5 lvl for 5 6 & m nvrn ml LFPR fml LFPR rmn 5 lvl for 5 6 fml LFPR ncr by 5% for % Fur 7. Chn n h rowh r of humn cpl du o chn n lbor forc prcpon r Sourc: Auhor clculon bd on ILO lbor forc prcpon procon. ) ) * ) Skll LFPR LF ) ) ) * ) A E HCC LF SumHumCp ) ln xp w w ) w w P R w w R E nf 3) * v r nf nf 4) k k r b k nf nf PV nf PV p nf PV p nw ) ' ' ' 5) 3 ) ) * ) Skll LFPR LF ) ) ) * ) A E HCC LF SumHumCp ) ln xp w w ) w w P R w w R E nf 3) * v r nf nf 4) k k r b k nf nf PV nf PV p nf PV p nw ) ' ' ' 5) ) ) * ) Skll LFPR LF ) ) * ) A E HCC LF SumHumCp ) ln xp w w w w P R w w R E nf 3) * v r nf nf 4) k k r b k nf nf PV nf PV p nf PV p nw ) ' ' ' 5) 3 ) ) * ) Skll LFPR LF ) ) ) * ) A E HCC LF SumHumCp ) ln xp w w ) w w P R w w R E nf 3) * v r nf nf 4) k k r b k nf nf PV nf PV p nf PV p nw ) ' ' ' 5) 3 ) ) * ) Skll LFPR LF ) ) ) * ) A E HCC LF SumHumCp ) ln xp w w ) w w P R w w R E nf 3) * v r nf nf 4) k k r b k nf nf PV nf PV p nf PV p nw ) ' ' ' 5) 3

13 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc 3 Fur 8. Slcd crr ph by lvl of ducon nd conomc cor.5.5 N rvnu proporon vr rnn) N rvnu proporon vr rnn) A A Unvry Scondry ducon No ducon Publc cor Publc cor wh prv cor pnon Prv cor Informl cor Sourc: Auhor clculon. Thr r lo mporn vron cro cor n rm of h nrnl r of rurn on nvmn on dffrn lvl of ducon. Hhr ducon for nnc br vlud n h publc cor Fur 9). Scondry ducon wh chncl dplom from voconl rnn nuon hhly vlud n h prv cor. In h nforml cor on h ohr hnd h hh r of rurn r for nvmn n 9 yr of bc ducon plu chncl dplom from voconl rnn nuon. In ll cor nvmn n only prmry ducon or prmry ducon plu chncl dplom r no worh much. Th nvmn r mporn only h hy llow ndvdul o cc hhr duconl lvl. Wh r h ncnv for ndvdul o quu for ob n h cvl rvc? To nwr h quon w compu quon 5) for 5 yr-old ndvdul hvn o dcd whhr o k ob n h prv cor m or w for ob n h publc cor h cn occur wh probbly p. W mul four vlu for p: % 5% % nd %. W lo um h f h ndvdul do no work h/h h o borrow n moun quvln o 5% of h lry pd by h prv cor ob. Th n n from wn for h publc cor ob r rphd n h lf-hnd pnl of Fur. Ech Fur 9. Inrnl r of rurn on nvmn n ducon by conomc cor Prv cor Publc cor Scondry + VT 9h rd + VT Unvry + VT Prmry + VT From 9h rd o Scondry From Scondry o Unvry From prmry o 9h rd Prmry 9h rd + VT From 9h rd o Scondry From prmry o 9h rd Scondry + VT From Scondry o Unvry Prmry + VT Unvry + VT Prmry Aprnc no prmry) Aprnc no prmry) % R of rurn on mrnl nvmn n ducon Informl cor R of rurn on mrnl nvmn n ducon % 9h rd + VT From Scondry o Unvry From 9h rd o Scondry Scondry + VT Unvry + VT From prmry o 9h rd Prmry + VT Prmry Aprnc no prmry) R of rurn on mrnl nvmn n ducon % Sourc: Auhor clculon.

14 4 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8 Fur. Incnv o Quu for Job n h Publc Scor N n from wn % % Effc of pnon on h n lo) from wn.5% probbly no borrown % probbly 5% probbly % probbly % probbly Sourc: Auhor clculon. ln corrpond o on vlu of p. W obrv h vn n h c of vry low probbly of fndn publc cor ob h ndvdul h n ncnv o w for on yr. If h probbly of fndn ob % hn h ndvdul would hv ncnv o w for 8 yr. If h probbly % hn h ndvdul would hv ncnv o w for yr. Wh no borrown nd b=) vn wh % probbly of fndn ob n h publc cor h ndvdul would hv ncnv o w for yr dod ln). How much of h ncnv o dly kn h ob n h prv cor xplnd by h pnon ym? To nwr h quon w clcul quon 5) umn h pnon n h cvl rvc rpond o h m rul pnon n h prv cor. W hn compr h ruln nw.) funcon. Th prcn dffrnc bwn h n n of wn dffrn r rphd n h rh pnl of Fur. Th rul how h dffrnc n h pnon ym hv ron ffc round h whr wn no lonr opml. Dpndn on h probbly of fndn ob n h publc cor dffrnc n pnon cn ncr by o 4% of h n n of wn nd hrfor provd ron ncnv o l h ob n h prv cor p. Smlrly pnon cn rduc by % o 3% h lo from wn nd lo conrbu o quun. Th fnl quon h w ddr : wh r h ncnv o wch from publc cor o prv cor ob? W do h nly for n ndvdul wh hhr ducon condrn h pobly of wchn vrou. Th rlvn mur n h c h chn n h fnncl wlh whch h prn vlu of fuur w nd pnon. Th rul r prnd n Fur. No urprnly our clculon how h ndvdul wchn would fc mporn lo; h fnncl wlh could b rducd by 46% o 48%. Mo of h lo n fnncl wlh r of cour rbubl o lowr lr n h prv cor. A zbl pr of h lo howvr lo xplnd by h mov o l nrou pnon ym. Hnc h chn n pnon ym rduc h fnncl wlh by bwn 5% nd 5% dpndn on h of h wchn. Th lonr h ndvdul w nd hrfor h hhr h xpcd pnon r h hhr h lo orn ln n Fur ). Th con h nlyzd ncnv for lbor mobly cro mn conomc cor. Th nly bd on h mulon of crr ph nd h clculon of hr ndcor: nrnl r of rurn on ducon n n from quun for ob n h publc cor nd h chn n wlh ruln from wchn ob cro cor. Th ndcor cn b ly compud on h b of lbor forc or houhold urvy d. Whn ppld o Morocco h ndcor how h frmnd pnon ym mor nrou for cvl rvn dor r of rurn on ducon rduc ncnv o upply lbor n h prv cor nd dcour mobly bwn h publc nd prv Fur. Incnv o wch ob bwn h publc nd prv cor Lo xplnd by pnon ym 6 % Sourc: Auhor clculon. Lo n wlh from wchn Lo xplnd by pnon ym % Lo n wlh from wchn

15 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc 5 cor. Th corollry h pnon rform h unfy h pnon ym cn conrbu o fcl lbor mobly cro cor nd hrfor conrbu o mprovd conomc ffcncy. 5. Concluon In h ppr w dcu nd mp o mur wo of h doron h bdly dnd dfnd bnf pnon ym lckn curl conncon bwn conrbuon nd bnf) cn mpo on lbor mrk: ncnv for rly rrmn nd ncnv o quu for ob n h publc cor. In h c of rly rrmn w ru h h ndrd ndcor ud o ncnv problm h nrnl r of rurn IRR) on conrbuon nd h pnon wlh r no ppropr. Th mnly bcu h ndcor do no cpur h rd-off bwn conumpon nd lur whch r h cor of h rrmn dcon. Thu w propod complmnry ndcor h normv mor of h probbly of rly rrmn bd on uly mp. Th ndcor k no ccoun h rd-off bwn conumpon nd lur wll h hrony of prfrnc of ndvdul. W ppld h ndcor o h c of Morocco frly rprnv counry for h mddl-ncom roup. W howd h ncnv for rly rrmn r mporn prculrly n h nonl chm. W lo llurd how h ndcor cn b ud n h conx of modl h proc h lbor forc by ndr nd kll lvl o how chn n bnf formul nd lbly condon ffc h ccumulon of humn cpl. In h c of Morocco on vr n h prod 6 4 corrcd rly rrmn ncnv could ncr h humn cpl rowh r by pproxmly % undr concvbl ylzd cnro. W fnd h mpc qu nfcn n lh of currn pnon rform dcuon/dconmkn prcc h fl o qunfy h ffc of pnon rform on lbor mrk. Subqunly w nlyzd ncnv o upply lbor n h prv nd publc cor. Th nly w bd on mcro mulon of crr ph for ndvdul wh dffrn lvl of ducon workn n dffrn conomc cor nd hrfor blonn o dffrn pnon pln. W focud on hr ndcor: nrnl r of rurn on ducon n n from quun for ob n h publc cor nd h chn n wlh ruln from wchn ob cro cor. Whn ppld o Morocco h ndcor howd h frmnd pnon ym dor r of rurn on ducon rduc ncnv o upply lbor n h prv cor nd dcour mobly bwn h publc nd prv cor. Th corollry h pnon rform h unfy h pnon ym cn conrbu o fcl lbor mobly cro cor nd hrfor mprov conomc ffcncy. Thr r boh mhodolocl nd polcy concluon from our ppr. Rrdn h mhodoloy w blv h fuur mn of pnon nuon nd nrnonl compron of h ffc of bnf formul nd lbly condon on rrmn dcon could bnf from h clculon of h normv mor of h probbly of rly rrmn bd on h uly mp. Th ndcor uful o x-n h ponl mpc h polcy chn cn hv on rrmn dcon. In ddon w blv h complx nly of h conqunc of rly rrmn hould o byond h nrrow mn of h mpc on h fnncl unbly of h pnon chm nd fcl mplcon. I hould ddr h mpc on lbor forc prcpon r humn cpl ccumulon nd ulmly conomc rowh. Th mhodoloy dcrbd n h ppr un h ndr nd duconl nmn pcfc procon of h lbor forc nd h ocd mur of humn cpl m ubl frmwork for h yp of nly. Rrdn polc h ppr rnhn h rumn for h xnc of nfcn conomc bnf of rform h rduc ncnv for rly rrmn nd lmn dffrnc n bnf formul nd lbly condon for dffrn mn of h lbor forc. Whl ho bnf hv bn pond ou n h lrur hr r ll nfcn numbr of polcy-mkr n hh- nd mddl-ncom counr h condr hm xrd pclly whn comprd o h polcl co of nroducn pnon rform. Our ppr wll hopfully conrbu o om rmn of h co-bnf nly of pnon rform by hown h h bnf my hv bn o fr undrmd.

16 6 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8 Rfrnc Bckr G.S. 993) Humn Cpl A Thorcl nd Emprcl Anly wh Spcl Rfrnc o Educon 3rd Edon Unvry of Chco Pr Chco. Blondl S. Scrp S. 998) Th Rrmn Dcon n h OECD Counr Workn Ppr No. OECD Economc Dprmn Pr. Borch-Supn A. Schnbl R. 998) Socl Scury nd Dclnn Lbor Forc Prcpon n Grmny Amrcn Economc Rvw Vol. 88 No. pp Cörvr F. d Grp A. Hk H. ) Byond Mnpowr Plnnn: A Lbour Mrk Modl for h Nhrlnd nd Forc o 6 n: M. Nur K. Schömnn d.) Forcn Lbour Mrk n OECD Counr Murn nd Tckln Mmch Edwrd Elr Chlnhm. Gourroux C. Monfor A. 995) Smulon-Bd Economrc Mhod Oxford Unvry Pr Oxford. Grubr J. W D.A. d) 999) Socl Scury nd Rrmn Around h World Unvry of Chco Pr Chco. Grubr J. W D.A. d) 4) Socl Scury nd Rrmn Around h World: Mcro Emon Unvry of Chco Pr Chco. Grubr J. W D.A. d) forhcomn) Socl Scury nd Rrmn Around h World: Fcl Implcon of Rform Unvry of Chco Pr Chco. Hk H. d.) 994) Forcn h Lbour Mrk by Occupon nd Educon Th Forcn Acv of Thr Europn Lbour Mrk Rrch Inu Kluwr Acdmc Publhr Norwll. Hrbron T.T. Orz M. 3) Th Erly Rrmn Burdn An h Co of h Connud Prvlnc of Erly Rrmn n OECD Counr Tchncl Rpor No. 3-LS4 Won Wy hp://ppr.rn. com/ol3/ppr.cfm?brc_d=4345 Olvr Mrn J. Gonnd F. Anoln P. d l Monnuv Ch. Kwn-Yol Y. 5) Th Impc of An on Dmnd Fcor Mrk nd Growh Workn Ppr No. 4 OECD Economc Dprmn Pr. Qur M. Whhou E. 6) Nurl Or Fr Acurl Concp nd Pnon-Sym Dn Socl Employmn nd Mron Workn Ppr No. 4 OECD Pr. Sou-Poz A. 3) Lbour Mrk Smnon n Swzrlnd mmo hp:// poz.hml Tubmn P. Wchr M.L. 986) Smnd Lbor Mrk n: Hndbook of Lbor Economc Vol. II. Elvr Scnc Publhr BV Norh-Hollnd.

17 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mcroconomc 7 Tbl A.. Chrcrc of h CMR nd h CNSS n Morocco Chrcrc cvl rvn CMR mlry CNSS Elbly condon A 6 yr for mn nd womn 45 or 5 dpndn on rd 6 yr for womn nd mn Vn prod Non No 5 yr Rul for rly rrmn 5 for womn; for mn; h ccrul r rducd by.5 prcn pon Sm for cvl rvn 55 yr for womn nd mn; no pnl pply bu h mployr py h pnon bwn 55 nd 6 Rul for dlyd rrmn Rul for bndonn h ym Employ rcv h or hr conrbuon no mployr ) whou nr Sm for cvl rvn Indvdul cn only rcv bnf f hy m lbly condon Socl cury conrbuon r 4% of ro w mployr 7%; workr 7%); for old- pnon 4%; for ohr bnf nonconrbuory. Conrbuon ncr o prcn r of wo prcn pon pr yr. Ohr bnf r fnncd drcly by h ovrnmn. % of ro w mployr 4%; workr 7%) o fnnc old- pnon. Ohr bnf r fnncd drcly by h ovrnmn..39%mployr 6.9%; workr 4.9%). Old- dbly nd urvvor pnon.89%; fmly llownc 7.5%; hor rm bnf % Accrul r.5%.5% Incom mur L lry L lry 3.3% fr 5 yr; prcn frwrd lw ndc 5% of h ncom mur for h fr 34 dy hn prcn for ch block of 6 dy; mplfcon um h on yr 6 dy of work) L 8 yr no rvlorzon ppl) Cln on covrd w No No DH 6 Mxmum rplcmn r or mxmum pnon Mxmum pnon % of n w Mxmum pnon % of n w 7% of ro w Pnon ndxon Ad hoc Ad hoc Ad hoc Mnmum pnon DH 5 monh DH 5 monh DH 5 monh Economy-wd mnmum w Economy-wd vr w DH 9 monh DH 75 monh Sourc: CMR nd CNSS. No vlbl or no offrd

18 8 Mkrokonom Bnk Krdy luy 8 Tbl A.. Chrcrc of h RCAR n Morocco Chrcrc RCAR bc rm) Elbly condon A Vn prod Rul for rly rrmn Rul for dlyd rrmn Rul for bndonn h ym Socl cury conrbuon r Accrul r Incom mur 6 yr for womn nd mn yr 55 yr for boh womn nd mn wh yr of conrbuon. Th pnon rducd by 4.8% for ch yr mn o rch h norml rrmn 6). If ndvdul rr fr 6 h pnon ncr by 4.8% for ch yr bov h of 6. Rcv cpl ccumuld n h ndvdul ccoun 8% of ro w mployr %; workr 6%). Of h ndvdul ccoun %; fmly llownc.65%; dbly nd urvvor pnon %; nrl fund covrn fuur unfundd oblon of h chm 4.35% prcn All rmunron rvlorzd by h rowh r of h vr covrd w) Cln on covrd w Four m h vr lry DH n 3) Mxmum rplcmn r or mxmum pnon 9% Pnon ndxon Mnmum pnon Auomc ndxon o conumr prc ndx No Economy-wd mnmum w Economy-wd vr w DH 75 monh Sourc: RCAR. no vlbl or no offrd

19 Bnk Krdy luy 8 Mkrokonom 9 Mchnzmy kzłown cn w przd borwch polkch n l zchowƒ frm z rfy uro * Th Prc-n Bhvour of Polh Frm. Compron Bwn h Euro Ar nd Polnd Zof Jnkwcz Dnu Kołodzczyk ** prwz wr: 4 rudn 7 r. oczn wr: 7 mrc 8 r. kcpc: 7 mrc 8 r. Srzczn Abrc W rykul przdwono nlzę mchnzmów kzłown cn w polkch frmch oprą n bdnch prowdzonych przz NBP orz porównn z wynkm proku IPN ECB obmuąco 9 krów rfy uro. Anlzown prób polkch przdęborw o nczęśc frmy duż w dobr yuc konomczn. Wynk bdń pokzły ż przdęborw wyznczą wo cny nczęśc bzpośrdno n podw kozów. Powzchn podobn k w krch rfy uro r różncown cn. Szywność cn w Polc mnz nż w rf uro dnk opnowo ę zwękz. Głównym przyczynm ą: obw przd ym ż konkurnc frmy n zmną woch cn orz konrky zwr z odborcm. Czynnk powoduąc zmny cn ą podobn zrówno w polkch przdęborwch k dzłących n rynkch UE. Są o przd wzykm wzro cn urowców orz zmny cn konkurnc. Słow kluczow: kzłown cn zywność cn częolwość zmn cn bdn nkow Th ppr prn rul of h ud on prc-n bhvour of Polh frm conducd by h NBP n compron wh h rul of h IPN ECB proc h covr 9 uro r counr. Th nlyd mpl of Polh frm bov ll compod of lr nrpr h r n ood conomc condon. Th rul of our rrch howd h n mo compn prc r co-bd. Prc dcrmnon lk n uro r counr vry common. Thr om vdnc h prc rdy n Polnd lowr hn n h uro r bu rdully rn. Bclly w cn pon wo ron: h fr h compor wll no chn hr prc nd conrc wh cuomr. Th prc-chn drmnn r mlr boh n Polh nd EU compn: h rn prc of rw mrl nd compor prc chn. Kyword: prc n; prc rdy; m-dpndn prcn -dpndn prcn urvy d JEL: D4 E3 L * Auork brdzo dzękuą dr. P. Bouzwkmu z pomoc cnn wkzówk orz uw do nnz prcy. ** Nrodowy Bnk Polk Inyu Ekonomczny -ml: zof.nkwcz@ml.nbp.pl dnu.kolodzczyk@ml.nbp.pl

20 Mcroconomc Bnk Krdy luy 8. Węp Wśród zdnczych zdnń będących przdmom znrown bnku cnrlno znduą ę mchnzmy kzłown cn orz ocn opn ch lycznośc. Problmy ą brdzo on z punku wdzn polyk pnężn rnm wpływą bowm n kuczność polyk. Aby obrwowć mkrokonomczn pky kzłown ę cn bnk cnrln prowdzą bdn nkow wśród przdęborw. Spośród nwżnzych prc oprych n bdnch nkowych nlży wymnć ponrk prc A. Blndr 99; Blndr l. 998) udum Bnku Anl Hll l. ) bdn pońk zwdzk Nkw l. ; Apl l. ) orz prcę D. Amrul C. Kwn G. Wlknon 5) przyoowną dl Bnku Kndy. Nzrzy zkr mł dnk prorm Europko Bnku Cnrlno Inflon Prnc Nwork IPN) do rlzc kóro wykorzyno w mrę udnolconą modoloę. Oprcown n. mchnzmów kzłown cn w rmch proku IPN były opr n modch wynkch prc zpocząkownych w USA przz A. Blndr 99; Blndr l. 998). Przprowdzł on bzpośrdn bdn nkow wśród przdęborw mrykńkch. Ich clm było wyłonn rzczywych przyczyn urzymywn przz przdęborców zywnych cn. Konruuąc pyn wykorzyno lczn or konomczn doycząc mchnzmów kzłown ę cn powodów ch nlycznośc. Podobną modoloę zoowno w ECB w rmch IPN. Bdn obęły 9 pńw rfy uro: Aurę Blę Frncę Hzpnę Holndę Lukmbur Nmcy Porulę Włochy; łączn pond y. frm. Przprowdzon zoły w lch 3 5. Wynk dl pozczólnych krów zoły opublkown przz ch bnk cnrln orz przz ECB. Zborcz wynk przdwono w oprcownch IPN Fbn l. 5; Almo l. 6). W nnzym oprcownu przdwono nlzę mod kzłown cn w polkch przdęborwch orz ocnę zkru przyczyn zywnośc cn kż ymr obrwown w rkcch frm n różn czynnk oddzłuąc n cny. Prc opr n wynkch bdń nkowych kór NBP przprowdz coroczn począwzy od 995 r. Bdn włączon ą do prormu bdń yycznych yyk publczn. Clm bdń nkowych prowdzonych przz NBP wykorzynych m.n. w nnz prcy nlz yuc pronoz mchnzmów doyczących różnych pków dzłlnośc przdęborw nfnnowych w Polc m.n. yuc konomczn przdęborw dzłlnośc nwycyn uwrunkowń doępnośc krdyów konkurnc konkurncynośc). Udzł przdęborw w bdnch nkowych NBP dobrowolny. Prób k konruown by w kłd wchodzły łówn przdęborw wżn z punku wdzn funkconown cł opodrk. Tworzon w wpółprcy z oddzłm okręowym NBP dnoczśn źródłm nformc doyczących konunkury kór bdn przz NBP w kżdym kwrl. Bdn nkow n kórym w duż mrz opr ę nnzy rykuł zoło przprowdzon w okr lpc rpń 6 r. n prób 75 przdęborw polkch. W oprcownu pokzno zrówno zmny mchnzmów kzłown cn w Polc w cz k uyuown Polk n l nnych krów. J ono bowm z dn rony konynucą bdń NBP doyczących cn z l wczśnzych z dru rony now próbę umcown nzych wynków n l wynków proku IPN ECB. Bdn nkow ą porzbnym uzupłnnm rozwżń orycznych n m mchnzmów kzłown ę cn por. Blndr 99). N rzuly bdń nkowych znczny wpływ mą dnk dobór próby poób formułown pyń m chnk zbrn nformc. N pro wyprcown udnolcon modolo kch bdń wrnuąc wryodność orz porównywlność wynków orzymywnych w różnych momnch czu dl podynczo kru czy w rmch zwń mędzynrodowych. Dl ocny porównywlnośc wynków polkch IPN wżny ż okr obęy bdnm. Polk nk zoł przprowdzon w połow 6 r. doyczył 5 r. węc prwzo płno pokcyno roku. Z punku wdzn zwk cnowych n był o okr ypowy m.n. dlo ż w 5 r. obrwowlśmy w Polc zcz pwn procy dooowwcz w zkr cn zwązn włśn z przyąpnm do UE. Oprcown kłd ę z 5 rozdzłów. Rozdzł. zwr chrkryykę próby. W rozdzl. omówon ą mody uln cn. Rozdzł 3. doyczy zywnośc cn przdwon ą r częość nlz cn orz częość zmn cn. W rozdzl 4. pokzn ą przyczyny orz brry zmn cn kż ymr rkc przdęborw n zmny popyu kozów dzłlnośc. On 5. rozdzł zwr podumown. Wzory formulrzy nkowych przyłn ą lkronczn z Cnrl NBP do oddzłów okręowych NBP. Nępn oddzły przkzuą z ruły w form pprow) do wpółprcuących z bnkm przdęborw. Wypłnon nky pływą ponown do oddzłów NBP kąd zborczo droą lkronczną ą przyłn do Cnrl NBP. W zwązku z ym nlży zznczyć ż prób NBP pod pwnym wzlędm różn ę od wykorzyywn w IPN przy czym równż n zchown dnolość prób w pozczólnych bdnch nrodowych kłdących ę n n prorm. Nlży równż dodć ż n wzyk wynk bdń prowdzonych w rmch proku IPN ą w płn porównywln z wynkm nky przprowdzon przz NBP z wzlędu n nco nną konrukcę nkórych pyń nkowych. W koln dyc nky NBP zpwnon będz wękz zbżność pyń zdwnych polkm przdęborcom z nkm przprowdzonym w rmch IPN. Pozwol o n płnz porównn Polk z nnym krm uropkm.