Real Estate Review. Our Knowledge is your Property 2007 POLAND HOTELS

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1 Real Estate Review 2007 POLAND ECONOMY RETAIL BUILDING CONSULTANCY HOTELS OFFICE INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT Our Knowledge is your Property

2 Colliers International Central & Eastern Europe Location Map Tallinn ESTONIA Riga LATVIA LITHUANIA Vilnius St. Petersburg RUSSIA Moscow Warsaw POLAND Prague CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA Bratislava Budapest HUNGARY Zagreb CROATIA ROMANIA Bucharest Kyiv UKRAINE Belgrade SERBIA & MONTENEGRO Sofia BULGARIA Varna Istanbul GREECE TURKEY Athens Copyright Colliers International 2007 This report is intended as general market research and is based upon material in our possession or supplied to us, which we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy and completeness we cannot offer any warranty that factual errors may not have occurred. We would like to be told of any such errors so that these can be corrected. Colliers International takes no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered by reason of the inaccuracy or incorrectness of this report.

3 Poland in Warsaw since 1997 Dear Clients & Friends, 2006 proved to be yet another year of success stories, both for the Polish economy, the country s real estate sector, and for Colliers International Poland. The economic benefits of European Union membership are being felt every more strongly outside of the capital, through foreign direct investment (FDI) in new industrial, retail and business process offshoring (BPO) projects throughout the country. With the experience and knowledge of our Industrial department, we have been able to facilitate the plans of multinational corporations, entering Poland, or expanding existing operations. Our Office team has also advised on prominent major investments, such as those by Royal Dutch Shell and Capgemini, amongst others. The department also saw the promotion of Marcin Kania to the position of Associate Director, as a reward for his continued hard work and loyalty. The economic benefits of European Union membership are being felt every more strongly outside of the capital, through foreign direct investment (FDI) in new industrial, retail and business process offshoring (BPO) projects throughout the country. For the 6 th year running our team provided a greater range of services to a greater number of clients. As well as being the market leader in tenant representation services, and an ever larger player in valuation and investment services, I m delighted to report that in 2006, we established two new departments. Colliers clients can now benefit from the expertise of our Building Consultancy Services department, under the leadership of Zbigniew Firlit and Robert Bartosiewicz; and Asset and Property Management Services, under Peter Love and Monika Rajska-Wolińska. In 2006, we became pioneers in Poland by offering consultancy services in the hotel sector, creating a new department led by Alex Kloszewski, who has a wealth of experience in hospitality both in Poland and the US. Meanwhile the Investment Department became one of the top providers of transaction services, closing nearly Euro 500 million worth of deals. All forecasts point towards another year of steady growth in GDP, with most other economic indicators pointing in a favorable direction. Though the Polish market is now looking rather mature, at least compared to those to the south and east, such as Ukraine and Bulgaria, I sincerely believe that many opportunities remain. During the coming 12 months I look forward to working with those of you who are investing in Poland for the first time, as well as strengthening ties with our existing clients. Hadley Dean MANAGING PARTNER POLAND Colliers International (Poland) Sp. z o.o. The Metropolitan Building, Plac Pilsudskiego 3, Warsaw, Poland Phone: Fax: Our Knowledge is your Property

4 POLAND Economic Overview COUNTRY OVERVIEW With 38 million citizens and an economy of ca. USD 340 billion, Poland is by far the largest country in the region of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). It is also an important member of the European Union, having joined in May POLITICS Poland is a parliamentary democracy with the head of state, the president, elected directly by the general population. Currently the country s two most important political positions are manned by identical twins, Lech (president) and Jarosław (prime minster) Kaczyński. The popularity of their party, PiS (Law and Justice), is based on a platform of conservative social values, and a strong anti-communism and anti-corruption stance. Following general elections in the autumn of 2005, Poland has been governed by a right-of-centre coalition headed by PiS, with Samoobrona (Self-Defence) and Liga Polskich Rodzin (League of Polish Families) as junior partners. The coalition is rather unstable, threatening to split up at frequent intervals due to issues such as, the dispatch of fresh troops to Afghanistan, subsidies to farmers, and alleged improper behaviour of government ministers. Despite threats to dissolve the government and organize fresh elections, the falling popularity of all parties in government, in particular the junior partners of the coalition, means that it is against all of their interests to rock the boat. Local elections in November 2006 brought success to pro-business Economic Indicators e 2007 f Nominal GDP USD bln GDP Growth, pct y-o-y FDI (net) Industrial output, pct y-o-y * n/a Construction-manufacturing output, pct y-o-y * n/a Unemployment rate, pct year end * n/a Total Public Debt, pct GDP Fiscal balance, pct GDP n/a PPI, pct y-o-y, year end CPI, pct y-o-y, year end * 2.4 Exports, USD bln Imports, USD bln C/A Balance, pct GDP FX Reserves, USD bln PLN/USD, avg PLN/EUR, avg Source: DB Research, Bankier, GUS e estimate, f forecast, * October 06 2 COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

5 POLAND Economic Overview Platforma Obywatelska (Citizen s Platform the main opposition), though the Peasants Party (PSL) impressed most of all by winning control of many smaller town councils. Platforma claimed the most prestigious prizes, by taking the presidency of Warsaw, as well as that of several other large cities (e.g. Wrocław, Gdańsk). The city president s role is not simply ceremonial. Cities control sizeable budgets, and can make applications for European Union structural funds. Thus the mayor can strongly influence a city s development. THE ECONOMY Economically 2006 can be summed up as surprisingly successful. Growth topped expectations at around 5.5%, manufacturing and exports continued their double digit growth, the trade deficit remained narrow, and unemployment levels fell. Furthermore foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to flood in, particularly from East Asian manufacturers of electrical goods. One cloud on the horizon is labour shortages in certain sectors. Though the unemployment level at the close of the year was still above 15%, employment is up, and hundreds of thousands of citizens have left Poland to work in other EU countries. The government aims to assist sectors like construction, which are particularly badly effected, by allowing in labour from Romania and Bulgaria, new EU members, as well as from neighbours Belarus and Ukraine will be another year of growth, and new investments should continue to arrive, both in industry and manufacturing, and through Business Process Offshoring/Outsourcing projects. Increased employment levels, rising salaries, and the flow of income from overseas workers will ensure that demand at home remains buoyant. The Polish Złoty, though vulnerable to fluctuations, continues to be strong by historic standards. Monetary policy is progressively loosening as inflation rises from extremely low levels, so reducing real interest rates. Though the national bank has made warnings about the risk of inflation in 2007 and 2008, the arrival of a new governor in January 2007 might herald a more relaxed stance than that of the hawkish predecessor, Leszek Balcerowicz. Economic Indicators Unemployment, Inflation (%) f Year Unemployment Inflation GDP Change GDP Change (%) COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW

6 POLAND Office Market GENERAL OVERVIEW As Colliers International predicted, 2006 was a year of rapid absorption of office space, tumbling vacancy rates, and of rising rents. During the coming 12 months, with low quantities of vacant space across Warsaw, and low levels of new supply, tenants looking to negotiate space and move in 2007 may find the going tough; they ll need to make quick decisions, and pay more than those who signed in strength, with a new high for takeup (i.e. contract signatures for new deals, renegotiations, expansions, etc.) of over 119,000 sqm in the second quarter. Thanks to a new peak of 122,000 sqm obtained in quarter 4, market activity was up 10% on the previous year. In 2007 market activity will remain strong at around 110,000 sqm per quarter, though a large component of this will consist of prelease deals for 2008 and Warsaw Office Market Activity Quarterly Takeup (sqm 000s) City Centre Year Though rents are heading upwards, at least in the short- to medium-term, many landlords have projects lined up for , and will still offer generous terms in order to get a large anchor tenant on a prelease basis. This will be seen particularly in the Upper As Colliers International predicted, 2006 was a year of rapid absorption of office space, tumbling vacancy rates, and of rising rents Suburbs Total South (principally Mokotów) zone, which continues to dominate in terms of both demand and supply, with around 400,000 sqm of new space either under construction or officially planned. DEMAND In the first half of 2006 the office leasing market in Warsaw showed continued Warsaw Office Market At a Glance Generally activity is concentrated in the two central zones, where prominence and prestige attract financial firms and consultancies, and in Upper South and South West (the latter represented principally by the al. Jerozolimskie corridor), which are popular for FMCG manufacturers locating their administrative headquarters. The amount of deals signed in Upper South during the year was 24% of the total activity for the city, despite the area having just 18.4% of the stock. This is a reflection of the large amount of leasable stock (as opposed to owner-occupied properties) in the area, as well as its popularity. The out-performance will continue in 2007, not least of all because during the coming 24 months, a large proportion of new buildings will be completed here. Q Change y-o-y Suburban stock (sqm) Class A & B+ 1,525, ,280 Suburban vacant space 5.40% -008 bp CBD stock (sqm) Class A & B+ 1,031,221 76,355 CBD vacant space 5.30% -684 bp Total stock (sqm) Class A & B+ 2,557, ,635 Overall vacant space Class A & B+ 5.40% -280 bp 4 COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

7 POLAND Office Case Studies CLIENT Nestlé Polska CLIENT TOTAL SPACE Canal + Cyfrowy Sp. z o.o 14,100 sqm (built-to-suit project) TOTAL LEASED SPACE 5,300 sqm RESULTS Colliers International Poland represented Nestlé Polska in the renegotiation of their lease. The renegotiations concerned 5,300 sqm of office space in University Business Center (4,500 sqm in UBC I and 800 sqm in UBC II). Both buildings are situated in the Mokotów district. RESULTS The five-storey building with approx 7,600 sqm of leasable space, plus a 148-space underground car park, will be built in the Stegny district of Warsaw, at ul. Pory 4. As well as offices, the development will also have a television studio and broadcasting center. The building will be detached, and used exclusively by CANAL+ Cyfrowy. For more information please contact: Paweł Skałba, Robert Karniewski, Marek Ciunowicz, Marcin Kania Phone: Our Knowledge is your Property

8 POLAND Office Market Selected New Projects 2006 District Name of the Building Total Office Space (sqm) CC-Core Rondo 1 55,000 CC-Fringe Pańska Corner 2,700 CC-Fringe Prosta Office Centre 15,981 US MBP Topaz 11,080 US Trinity Park I 18,100 US Domaniewska Office Park Alpha 5,626 US Cirrus 12,855 Metropolitan Behind the figures for contract signatures, actual absorption of vacant space ran at historically high levels in 2006, particularly in the two central zones where substantial quantities of vacant space were available at the beginning of the year. During 2007 this will slow down, simply because there is little vacant space left. Overall, with the economy forecast to grow at steady, respectable rates, companies are now looking to expand, and to give themselves further expansion possibilities for future years. SUPPLY At the end of 2006 the stock of modern office space in Warsaw stood at ca million sqm, split in a 60:40 ratio between the suburbs and the city centre. Almost 190,000 sqm of new space was delivered during 2006, the highest figure since 2003, of which over one quarter was accounted for by Rondo 1 (55,000 sqm), the 39-storey glass tower in the central business district (CBD) developed by Hochtief Polska. Apart from this mammoth project, the quantity of new space that arrived in the CBD during the year was minimal, and it was the Upper South zone which strengthened its claim to be Warsaw s principal business district, with 58,000 sqm of new offices being delivered during The area is popular with tenants due to its proximity to Warsaw s airport and the middle-class residential districts of Mokotów and Wilanów, as well as to the extensive public transport connections assured by bus and tram, as well as by the metro, which runs along the eastern edge of the zone. Breakdown of Warsaw Office Market In 2007 a similar amount of new office space should be completed citywide (including the delayed Złote Tarasy project), of which approximately one-third will be in the CBD. VACANCY RATES Despite the record supply levels in Q1 of 2006, the overall vacancy level in the city only increased by one and a half percentage points to 9.5%. The underlying tendency was for strong absorption of empty office space, and by the close of the year the level had fallen sharply to 5.4%. Of further significance is that the differential in vacancy rates between the city centre and the suburbs had completely closed by the end of In fact the City Centre-Fringe Zone Stock Vacancy Rate Q Take-up 2006 Core 403, % 72,438 City Centre 628, % 113,848 E 129, % 18,106 N 100, % 4,884 LS 89, % 9,040 SE 113, % 29,234 SW 388, % 55,397 US 470, % 97,583 W 233, % 11,682 Total 2,557, % 412,211 6 COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

9 POLAND Office Case Studies CLIENT Schneider Electric CLIENT Capgemini TOTAL SPACE 2,400 sqm TOTAL SPACE 10,000 sqm RESULTS Colliers Office Department represented Schneider Electric in the lease of modern office space in building F of Wiśniowy Business Park, the latest stage of the office complex in the south west of Warsaw. RESULTS Colliers International assisted Capgemini, a world leader in IT consulting and outsourcing services, in its lease of over 10,000 sqm in Rondo Business Park in Kraków, which is owned by Buma S. A., a local developer. For more information please contact: Paweł Skałba, Robert Karniewski, Marek Ciunowicz, Marcin Kania Phone: Our Knowledge is your Property

10 POLAND Office Market WARSAW OFFICE DISTRICTS MAP market is now practically fully-leased (2.7%). Unless unexpected economic turbulence is encountered, further tightening across the city is certain until at least Those few buildings that have substantial quantities of space remaining are likely to close 2007, either full, or nearly so. requirement. Once rent-free periods and other incentives are factored in the effective level is generally from EUR to EUR In the Upper South market sector, headline rates for the newest projects are slightly lower at EUR to EUR The tight market and rapid leasing times enjoyed by selected new projects have allowed some landlords to raise their rent levels with each successive development phase or new buildings. RENT LEVELS The tight market and rapid leasing times enjoyed by selected new projects have allowed some landlords to raise their rent levels with each successive development phase or new building. Owners of the most sought after properties in the CBD are typically offering headline rents from EUR to for a medium-to-large space The strength of the market has not benefited all landlords equally, however. Older office developments in the CBD, and along Warsaw s south western corridor, command significantly lower rents, with levels of EUR 12 to EUR 14 (headline) being more typical. In certain circumstances tenants can obtain effective rents of less than EUR COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

11 POLAND Retail Market EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the years since the transformation to a market economy, investment in retail real estate in Poland has been dominated by private sector initiatives concentrated on land outside of the city core, where plots have tended to be undeveloped or easily cleared for new development. Such land is also cheaper, and less troublesome to acquire in terms of outstanding ownership issues. The market for large-scale shopping centres with hypermarkets is saturated in Warsaw, and once the current pipeline of developments in Wrocław and Poznań has been delivered the situation will be similar in these cities too. Investors now have to look for new opportunities. SUPPLY TRENDS There is currently approximately 3.4 million sqm of leasable area in large modern retail developments in the 7 large city/regional markets in Poland, with a further million sqm in the pipeline. Within these urban areas the density of retail space is currently just under 500 sqm per thousand inhabitants, though for the country as a whole the figure falls to ca. 150 sqm per thousand inhabitants. Indeed it is on towns and small cities, with populations of between 75, ,000 that developers of hypermarkets and small galleries are now having to focus their attention. For example Słupsk (northern Poland) has three new projects in the pipeline which could push the density of retail space up to 1,000 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants by the middle of Within certain regional capitals, as well as in Warsaw, the impending market saturation means that investors are tending to look at alternative retail concepts, such as: Neighbourhood centres Restoration of historic/industrial properties City centre/high street redevelopment Factory outlet centres Neighbourhood retail centres take advantage of 3 key facts. Firstly Poles, more than any other nation in the CEE region, still tend to do their shopping locally. Unfortunately, grocery shops within housing estates tend to be expensive, have limited product ranges, and are surrounded by poor local infrastructure. Investors talk about the opportunities in building modern pleasant small shopping centres (neighbourhood malls), that can meet all grocery needs as well as other basic services such as banking, medical services, hairdressing, etc. There is currently approximately 3.4 million sqm of leasable area in large modern retail developments in the 7 large city/regional markets in Poland, with a further million sqm in the pipeline. Even in central locations, many cities in Poland are dominated by long since derelict industrial sites, such as 19 th century brick factory structures, or more recent manufacturing complexes. The most notable regeneration and redevelopment project on such a site is Manufaktura in Łódź, brought to the market by Apsys Polska. Numerous other examples exist however, such as Stary Browar (Old Brewery) in Poznań and Stara Papiernia in Konstancin. The British developer Parkridge has begun work on five new 3 rd -generation city COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW

12 POLAND Retail Market centre retail projects, of which four involve the restoration of old structures. Frequently 20 th century buildings, such as railway stations, that are now perceived as ugly, uncomfortable or simply in poor condition, are being touted as potential private-public regeneration projects. To the present, little has been accomplished, though the national railway operator is preparing potential schemes with a consultancy firm. Some major cities such as Warsaw, Wrocław and Gdańsk already have so-called outlet centres, i.e. a shopping centre accommodating retail units that sell-off designer fashions (typically leftover stock from a previous season) at heavily discounted prices. As consumers develop a greater taste for luxury goods, so more of these developments will open. The two main operators to date are Neinver Polska (Warsaw, Wrocław) and The Outlet Company (Sosnowiec, Gdańsk, Warsaw). Though both developers have plans to open new centres such as in Poznań and Kraków, other investors are expressing interest in entering the sector, for example in Łódź. WARSAW The capital s market is now close to saturation point in terms of conventional shopping centre space, a position that will be all the more valid following the opening in Q of Złote Tarasy (63,400 retail GLA), in the heart of Warsaw. All other new developments, to be delivered during the coming two years in the capital, will either be on the periphery of the conurbation, or on a relatively small scale. The largest of these in 2007 will be Park Handlowy Zielone, a retail park being developed by a subsidiary of Denmark s TK Development. The 24,000 sqm centre was sold to Credit Suisse Asset Management Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft, at the end of 2006, well before its 2007 Q2 opening. The third phase of Liebrecht & wood s Fashion House outlet centre in Warsaw may also be undertaken during 2007, following the opening of the second phase during the previous year. Within the city centre a recent breakthrough in privately financed redevelopment was that of Pasaż Wiecha, a street handed over for commercialization to DTC Real Estate (the owner of several old department store buildings) for a period of 30 years, in return for the upgrading works. The result, unveiled in 2006 Q4, isn t revolutionary, but is a large improvement on its previous state, which rather deterred shoppers from passing through. Evolution of Modern Retail Space in Warsaw Annual Supply (sqm 000s) f 2008 f Annual Supply Year Cumulative Supply Cumulative Supply (sqm mln) On the high street, adjacent to the recently refurbished Pasaż Wiecha, the site of the Kino Relax cinema will be rejouvenated by Alma Development. The company intends to open a small retail centre anchored by an Alma Market delicatessen. Within the near suburbs Quinlan Private Golub will renovate a local historic shopping hall, Hala Koszyki, and so provide 10,000 sqm of retail space on two levels, with the centre to be anchored by a supermarket. The site will also be commercialised through 1,000 sqm of office space and the sale of 150 apartments. REGIONAL CITIES Poland s major regional cities are in the midst of an important 2 years for the development of third-generation shopping centres. In this respect the highlights of 2006 were the opening of Apsys Polska s Manufaktura and ECE Projektmanagement s Galeria Krakowska in Kraków. Concentration of Retail Space Major Cities/Regions Sqm per 1,000 inhabitants 1,200 1, Poznań Tricity Kraków Łódź Warsaw Wrocław Upper Silesia Autumn 2006 Forecast Total End COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

13 POLAND Retail Market Despite these two prominent projects it is actually in Wrocław and Poznań where growth in modern retail space will be the most spectacular. Already Poznań s citizens can boast almost as much retail space per capita as those in Warsaw, with a level of ca. 650 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants. By the end of the 2008 this figure will leap to almost 1,100 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants, whilst the comparable figure for the capital will be only around 720 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants. Shoppers in Wrocław, who since October 2006 have been able to buy cut-price designer brands at Neinver Polska s Factory outlet centre, will see a succession of large developments open during 2007 and Q Pasaż Grunwaldzki (Echo Investment), Arkady Wrocławskie (LC Corp) and Galeria Legnicka (Redis). Certain other, less prominent cities have seen disproportional amounts of new projects announced. Whilst this is positive news for construction companies and consumers, for the retailers deciding which will be the best for their brand can be difficult, particularly when the local market can only support one outlet. Development hot spots include Despite these two prominent projects it is actually in Wrocław and Poznań where growth in modern retail space will be the most spectacular. Białystok, in the north-east of the country, where as many as six new shopping centres or hypermarket and gallery projects have been announced, with similar numbers being unveiled in Lublin and Rzeszów. Also smaller towns such as Słupsk (population ca. 100,000) and Płock (140,000) could have 3 and 4 modern retail developments, respectively, by the close DEMAND New brands continue to come to the Polish market, though often they do so via 3 rd parties, which have won brand franchises for the country or wider region. Examples of such companies include Alshaya, which will launch Body Shop, Claire s and MAC in Poland in 2007, and the Inditex Group (Bershka Stradivarius, Oysho and Pull & Bear), which has previous form in Poland with Zara. Meanwhile, a veteran of the Polish market Empik Media & Fashion (e.g. Smyk, Empik, Esprit) has declared that it will launch another 3 franchised brands in Furthermore many current players in the Polish market also have ambitious expansion plans. Statistics suggest that Pipeline in Poznań Development Developer Type GLA (sqm) Expected Delivery Status Galeria Malta Neinver S.C. 55, Q4 under construction Stary Browar II Fortis S.C. 25, Q1 under construction Metropolis Echo Investment S.C. 40, planned Galeria Pestka Mobel Walther S.C. 40, Q1 under construction Factory Neinver outlet centre 15, planned Łacina Apsys S.C. 90, planned Galeria Poznańska ECE S.C. 44, planned Pipeline in Wrocław Development Developer Type GLA (sqm) Expected Delivery Status Arkady Wrocławskie LC Corp S.C. 32, Q2 under construction Galeria Legnicka Redis S.C. 64, Q4 under construction Pasaż Grunwaldzki Echo Investment S.C. 50, Q1 under construction Idylla Mayland S.C 42, planned Renoma DTC S.C. 36, Q2 planned COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW

14 POLAND Retail Market Manufaktura Shopping Center, Łodź aggressive supermarket chains have potential to build up further market share. Figures from AC Neilsen indicate that in Poland the top 3 grocery retailers account for only 13% of the market by volume of sales, compared with 31% in Czech Republic, 43% Hungary and over 80% in all Scandinavian nations. This would suggest that German discounter, Aldi, which aims to enter the Polish market may do so successfully, even though its various rivals have opened over 1,300 shops between them. Despite this, in 2006 the French grocery retailer Groupe Casino decided to pull the plug on its Polish retail operations by selling its Geant hypermarkets to the Metro Group (to be rebranded as Real ), and its Leader Price discount stores to Tesco. Casino is not to leave the country completely though. Through a new division called Mayland the company will develop new shopping centres on land that it had previously acquired. Retail Rents Centre Location Rent Level (EUR/sqm/month) * Warsaw (top tier centre) Warsaw (second. centre) * Assumes unit of sqm High Street Rent Level (EUR/sqm/month) * Warsaw Nowy Swiat Gdańsk ul. Rajska Poznań Półwiejska Kraków Rynek Glowny Wrocław Rynek Glowny * Assumes unit of sqm Another grocer that decided to discontinue operations in Poland is Ahold, which recently sold its Hypernova hypermarkets to Carrefour. The company is also believed to be ready to sell its small format Albert stores too, though as of yet a deal has not been announced. RENTS Factors effecting rent levels include the type of products that will be sold, the amount of space to be leased, the length of the lease being signed, and the visibility of the retail unit within the centre. In terms of rent differences between competing developments, the recent strong supply of modern retail space has created a stratification of the market. The landlords of dominant centres can often negotiate higher rents, whilst still enjoying tenant waiting lists. For other landlords the situation can be different, and despite offering discounts and incentives, they may fail to attract the most popular chains that are now being more selective about further expansion plans. 12 COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

15 POLAND Retail Case Studies CLIENT ASSET TOTAL SPACE Mobel Walther Objekt Poznań Galeria Pestka 40,000 sqm RESULTS Colliers International has been appointed as the exclusive agent for Mobel Walther s shopping center in Poznań. The three-storey shopping center will have 40,000 sqm of sales area with around 80 tenants. The project will be completed in Q CLIENT TOTAL SPACE LEASED Noble Bank 370 sqm RESULTS Colliers International represented Noble Bank a private banking company in a lease transaction of 370 sqm of retail space. The new customer service point is located in Kamienica Włoska, on Marszałkowska Street. CLIENT TOTAL SPACE LEASED Nestlé Nespresso 200 sqm RESULTS Colliers International represented Nestlé Nespresso in the lease transaction of 200 sqm of retail space in which the company will open the first Nespresso Boutique in Poland. As a suitable location for its prestigious brand the company chose a top-end location on Nowy Swiat, an exclusive high street in Warsaw. Currently, Nespresso has more than 40 Boutiques in major cities around the world. For more information please contact: Beata Wałujska-Sieniuta Phone: Our Knowledge is your Property

16 POLAND Industrial Market EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The market for leased industrial and warehousing space grew strongly once again in 2006, with take up for the year up over 40% on 2005, at around 770,000 sqm. For the first time leasing activity in the regional cities outstripped activity in Warsaw, though in the capital itself, the market expanded by around 15%. Rents have now started to edge upwards. One reason for this is the strong market and lower levels of vacant space. However, a major influence has also been the rising cost inputs, for example of construction labour and of raw materials, particularly of steel. Despite this, strong competition between developers, including new entrants to the market such as Slough Estates (in 2005), still makes Poland very competitive when compared with surrounding countries. WARSAW The 3 Zones of Warsaw (see map) still dominate the Polish market in terms of stock, with around 1.3 million sqm of warehousing space i.e. around 60% of the total in Poland. Nevertheless its share falls continuously (having stood at 68% at the end of 2005). This is a result of the growing popularity of other regions, rather than a decline in the capital s fortunes. The greatest volume of existing warehouse space in Warsaw can be found in Zone 2, i.e. in the western and southern sections of the region, from between 15 km and 25 km from the city centre. The stock level in Zone 2 was 730,000 sqm at the end of 2006, which was an increase of 70,000 sqm from the beginning of the year. This area is popular due to the fact that it is quite close to the city centre, yet enjoys relatively low rent levels, meaning that Market Activity in Poland Sqm (000s) Year Warsaw Regions Selected Major Industrial Deals in Poland Company Building Sqm Location Quarter Warsaw Gefco Eurinpro Grodzisk Mazowiecki 15,000 Zone II 1 Hellman Moritz Parkridge Distribution Center Nadarzyn 12,600 Zone II 2 Tesco ProLogis Park Teresin 12,400 Zone III 2 Logistic System Lexar Kostowiec 11,000 Zone II 1 TNT Express Annopol Logistics Park 8,000 Zone I 2 Carlsberg Millennium Logistic Park Pruszków 6,000 Zone II 3 Toya Parkridge Distribution Center Nadarzyn 10,800 Zone II 3 Regional Cities H&M Panattoni 60,000 Poznań 1 CORNING Tulipan Park Stryków 43,000 Łódź 1 Grupa Raben: CJ Internatonal ProLogis Park Chorzów 28,740 Silesia 2 FM Polska ProLogis Park Chorzów 17,500 Silesia 2 Azymut Slough Estates Stryków 9,500 Łódż 2 Wrozamet ProLogis Park Wrocław II 24,320 Wrocław 3 M&M Logistic City 21,000 Łódź 3 14 COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

17 POLAND Industrial Market Evolution of Modern Industrial Space in Warsaw 1, Total Stock (sqm 000s) 1, Space Delivered (sqm 000s) Total Stock Year Space Delivered users can serve both the local and national markets from such locations. The proximity to the city s labour supply also makes this area important for production facilities. Zone 1, which usually meets the requirements of small clients handling smaller-sized, higher value goods, offers only 305,000 sqm of space, i.e. less than a quarter of the total for Warsaw. In 2007 the area will see significant new projects enter the market courtesy of ProLogis, which has bought two land plots in the Praga district of the city (on the eastern side of the river), where it will develop a total of around 70,000 sqm, and in Janki, outside the south western border of the capital (94,000 sqm). Zone 3, which encompasses projects within Warsaw s sphere of influence, but over 25 km from the city centre, is more suited to large-scale national and international logistics operations due to the availability of cheaper land (and rents) next to major roads. The supply of space in Zone 3 has been boosted during the last 4 6 quarters by the delivery of 160,000 sqm in Teresin by ProLogis (fully-leased) and a new 20,000 sqm phase at Europa Park in Mszczonów. The latter, developed by EDC, has the potential to expand by more than 150,000 sqm. One other new entry to Warsaw s Zone 3 is the British developer Parkridge, which recently delivered the first 26,000 sqm of its new logistics park in Sochaczew. The Warsaw Market Zone Stock Vacancy Q4 Vacancy Rate Typical Asking (sqm) 2006 (sqm) Q (%) Rent (EUR) Zone 1 (to 10 km from center) 306,781 6, Zone 2 (10 25 km from center) 727,511 91, Zone 3 (>25 km from center) 270,373 20, Total 1,304, , VACANCY There were few completions of new warehousing space during the first half of During this period, the combination of low supply and high demand caused the vacancy rate for Warsaw as a whole to fall by more than half, to 7.2%. The area to see the biggest COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW

18 POLAND Industrial Market ProLogis Park, Poznań fall was Zone 3, where the large amount of speculative space delivered by ProLogis at Teresin started to be absorbed. At the close of the year the average vacancy rate across the city was ca. 9%, however, this figure disguises a very tight market in Zone 1, where just 10,000 sqm of space was available for lease in December Difficulty in obtaining planning guidelines and permits in the capital is making it difficult for supply to meet demand levels across most sectors of the real estate sector, not only in industrial and logistics space. REGIONAL CITIES The market for warehousing and logistics space in Polish regional cities took off in 2005, and at the end of 2006 space in the regions accounted for 850,000 sqm. Furthermore, nearly 500,000 sqm of stock is under construction and 3,000,000 sqm planned. Drivers behind this increased demand include growth in the retail sector, and the resulting requirement for local, national and regional distribution centres, and large manufacturing investment projects which draw in suppliers and logistics providers to serve the principal investor. Notable large investments that will generate business for real estate developers include the LG Philips LCD screen manufacturing plant in Wrocław, Sharp s LCD plant in Toruń and Dell s computer assembly centre in Łódź. Continuing development of Poland s motorway network also serves both to generate new demand, and to encourage the relocation of operations. A trend during 2006 was the planning and delivery of new projects next to exit sliproads of new motorways such as the A4 and A2. Existing and Planned Space in Poland s Regional Markets Sqm (000s) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Poznań Silesia Existing Wrocław Łódź Warsaw Gdańsk Kraków Planned/Under Construction 16 COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

19 POLAND Industrial Market Particular focuses of activity include Stryków, a town north of Łódź, where the A2 and A1 motorways will intersect (Diamond Business Park Stryków, Tulipan Park Stryków), Chorzów and Wrocław on the A4 motorway (ProLogis Park Chorzow/Wrocław), and the Poznań region (Tulipan Park Komorniki, Panattoni Gądki). Contracts were signed for over half a million square metres of space in the regions during 2006, the majority of which was accounted for by demand for new space. Poznań, Wrocław and the Silesia region led the market with 161,538 sqm, 122,867 sqm, 108,089 sqm of deals signed, respectively. The largest deals included those by a retailer H&M for 52,000 sqm on a new site being developed by Panattoni in Poznań, and 43,000 sqm leased by a manufacturer Corning in Slough Estate s Tulipan Park Stryków. considerably lower than in neighbouring countries such as Czech Republic and Slovakia. Most city markets also see at least 3 international developers (players such as ProLogis, Parkridge CE, Panatonni, Slough Estates, AIG/Lincoln) competing against one another, as well as against national and local businesses. Average rents are from EUR 2.75 to EUR A customer with a large space requirements in standard A-class properties is likely to negotiate rents Poland is blessed with large expanses of flat empty space, and land prices are considerably lower than in neighbouring countries such as Czech Republic and Slovakia. firmly under EUR 2.75 per sqm. This is as true in Zones 2 and 3 of Warsaw as in provincial cities seeing high levels of development. An exception to this would be the city of Kraków where there is a shortage of warehousing space, and where rents rage from EUR 3.10 to EUR Panattoni, Gądki Within Warsaw, i.e. within Zone 1 (up to 10 km from the centre) rent levels are higher, at between EUR 4.00 to EUR TENDENCIES Demand will continue to be driven significantly by the expansion of the retail sector in Poland and the CEE region, and by new manufacturing investments. Demand for space in Gdańsk will accelerate. Construction on the first modern warehouse projects in the city began in 2006, and 20,000 sqm of contracts were signed. Other cities will also see developers reveal plans for modern industrial real estate projects, such as Szczecin, Bydgoszcz, Toruń and Rzeszów. Both development and demand will continue to track the construction of new motorways, and as a true network of upgraded roads appears, companies will find that being adjacent to the new highways will offer real competitive advantages. VACANCY By the close of the 4 th quarter 2006 the average vacancy level across the various regional cities in Poland stood at 7%. However, generally it can be assumed that the market is tighter, with no space remaining unleased for long. Many new developments are delivered on a pre-lease or build-to-suit (BTS) basis, whilst the remaining capacity tends to become occupied during the quarter following delivery. RENTAL RATES Poland is blessed with large expanses of flat empty space, and land prices are COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW

20 POLAND Industrial Market Slough Estates Poznań Similarly developers and investors will land bank in areas close to the new highways. Land prices will rise in established industrial areas. From around EUR 15 to EUR 20 per sqm, industrial development land will cost EUR 30 to EUR 40 per sqm. for Foreign Direct Investments. It is estimated that in 2006 total FDI into the country was USD billion. To attract high inward flows of capital Poland offers investors various forms of state support, most notably in the 14 Special Economic Zones (SEZs). On offer are several financial sweeteners such as corporate tax refunds of up to 50% of the investment outlay or, for less capital-intensive investments, similar tax reductions of 50% of the cost of new jobs that are created for a minimum of 2 years. Furthermore, the Zones administrations provide assistance in the investment process, facilitating contacts with public authorities, for example in the acquisition of land. Technology and industrial parks are also becoming ncreasingly popular in Poland, as a way to generate regional development, by providing ready infrastructure and beneficial clustering effects for investor firms. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Figures provided by the Central Statistical Office suggest that Poland is considered as an attractive destination Recent prominent investments in Polish SEZs there are LG (Łódź), Funai (Nowa Sol), Sharp (Torun), Dell (Łódź). The Principal Regional Markets City/Region Stock Vacancy Rate New Completions Average Asking (sqm) Q (%) 2006 (sqm) Rent (EUR) Łódź 198, % 32, Poznań 200, % 76, Silesia 314, % 105, Wrocław 149, % 55, Kraków 19, % 11, Total 837, % 281, COLLIERS REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2007

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