Scenariusze, modele biznesowe i przykłady rynku budynków energooszczędnych

Transkrypt

1 NorthPass NorthPass Promotion of the Very low-energy house Concept to the North European Building Market Scenariusze, modele biznesowe i przykłady rynku budynków energooszczędnych 26/04/2012 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Hannele Ahvenniemi, Pekka Tuominen

2 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 2 of 63 Disclaimer The information in this document is provided as is and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability. The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Spis treści 1 Wstęp Metody Analiza SWOT Scenariusze Scanariusz zwykły - kontynuacja obecnych praktyk Scenariusz szybkich zmian (cele Unii Europejskie osiągnięte do 2020 roku) Scanariusz zmiany w sposobie pracy rynku Country-specific scenario and SWOT analysis Denmark Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies Scenarios and Business Models Estonia Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies Scenarios and Business Models Finland Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies Scenarios and Business Models Latvia Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies Scenarios and Business Models Lithuania Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies Scenarios and Business Models Norway Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies Scenarios and Business Models Polska Wstęp Obecna sytuacja na rynku budynków energooszczędnych Analiza SWOT firm Scenariusze i modele biznesowe Sweden Introduction Current situation of the very low-energy housing market SWOT-analyses for companies... 48

3 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 3 of Scenarios and Business Models Wnioski i Dyskusja References Appendices Denmark Estonia Finland Latvia Lithuania Norway Poland Sweden... 63

4 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 4 of 63 1 WSTĘP Niniejszy raport przedstawia trzy róŝne scenariusze osiągnięcia wymagań Unii Europejskiej do 2020 roku (wymagania zawarte są w nowelizacji dyrektywy EPBD, zgodnie, z którymi wszystkie nowe budynki mają być prawie zeroenergetyczne w 2020 roku). Te trzy scenariusze to scenariusz szybkich zmian (zakłada osiągnięcie zakładanych celów w krajach UE do 2020 roku), scenariusz zmiany schematów rynkowych (osiągnięcie celu juŝ w roku 2016 roku) i scenariusz zakładający brak zmian w funkcjonowaniu rynku i przedsiębiorstw, (nie osiągnięcie zakładanego celu w krajach UE do 2020 roku). Niezbędne środki, które muszą być wdroŝone w celu osiągnięcia załoŝeń wymienionych powyŝej scenariuszy są opisane w raporcie. Omówiono takŝe wiarygodność kaŝdego scenariusza. Niewystarczające jest zapewnienie dostępności informacji i podejmowanie tematów związanych z efektywnością energetyczną na róŝnych etapach edukacji i potraktowanie tych elementów, jako główne kwestie zwiększające zainteresowanie róŝnych podmiotów zarówno ze strony popytu, jaki i podaŝy. TakŜe promowanie budynków energooszczędnych i rozwój tego sektora rynku niekoniecznie muszą być wspomagane przez państwo, ale państwo powinno być zaangaŝowane w dostarczanie pomocy finansowej (np. ulg podatkowych), która z pewnością ma korzystny wpływ na rozwój segmentu rynku budynków energooszczędnych. Celem niniejszego raportu jest przedstawienie scenariuszy i modeli biznesowych budynku energooszczędnego. Najprostszym model biznesowym (BM) jest "historia wyjaśniająca zasady działania przedsiębiorstwa". Odpowiada ona na następujące pytania: Kto jest potencjalnym klientem? Jak zarabiać pieniądze? Jak moŝemy dostarczyć wartość dla klientów w odpowiedniej cenie? Udany model biznesowy reprezentuje lepszy sposób niŝ istniejące alternatywy. MoŜe zaoferować większą wartość wybranej grupie klientów lub całkowicie zastąpić stary model ( nowy staje się standardem). WspółzaleŜność róŝnych podmiotów i zrozumienie ich roli w procesie będą miały duŝą wagę przy tworzeniu Modeli Biznesowych domów energooszczędnych zawartych w raporcie. Modele Biznesowe powinny przynieść dodatkowe korzyści dla klientów, w przypadku budynków energooszczędnych, korzyści zostaną dostarczone w formie, niŝszych kosztów uŝytkowania równieŝ kosztów LCC, większej wartości rynkowej domu (Halme et al. 2005) oraz poprawy środowiska wewnętrznego. TakŜe inne podmioty związane z procesem powstawania budynków energooszczędnych powinny korzystać z profitów. Podmioty społeczne, takie jak Unia Europejska, ministerstwa, gminy, uczelnie i media, mogą mieć róŝne powody, dla których będą wspierały budownictwo energooszczędne lub technologie z nim związane. RóŜne podmioty związane z procesem powstawania budynków energooszczędnych (np. producenci, projektanci, firmy budowlane itp.) przewaŝnie mogą uzyskać korzyści finansowe z zaangaŝowania się w tym procesie i wartość ta będzie słuŝyć, jako motywacja dla nich do działania w tym sektorze budownictwa. Zmiany technologiczne są waŝne w przypadku budynków energooszczędnych. Bower i Christensen (2010) stwierdzili, obecnie większość dobrze zarządzanych firm konsekwentnie wyprzedza konkurentów w swojej branŝy i wprowadza na rynek nowe technologie, tak długo takie podejście będzie odnosiło sukces, jak te technologie odpowiadać będą na przyszłe potrzeby swoich klientów. Niemniej jednak, niezwykłe wyzwanie wynika z argumentacji przedstawionej przez Bower i Christensen (2010), Ŝe liderzy branŝy są rzadko w czołówce firm wprowadzających (komercjalizujących) nowe technologie, które jeszcze nie spełniają wymagań głównych klientów i zainteresowanie nimi jest ograniczone. Budownictwo energooszczędne i pasywne nie jest bardzo rozpowirzechnione. Klienci do tej pory nie

5 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 5 of 63 wywierali presji na rynku, poniewaŝ nie mają inforamcji dotyczących dodatkowych zalet budynków energooszczędnych w porónaniu do budynków standardowych. W związku z aktualnym zapotrzebowaniem na niskim poziomie, model biznesowy domów energooszczędnych oceniany będzie z szerszej perspektywy, nie tylko z punktu widzenia firmy, takŝe firmy budowlane będą brane pod uwagę. PoniewaŜ istnieje zapotrzebowanie na rynku, problem jest bardziej związany z tym, jak zmienić łącznie jeden lub kilka aspektów, w otoczeniu środowiska rynkowo - politycznego, gospodarczego, społeczno-kulturowego i technologicznego, w celu zwiększenia moŝliwości realizacji projektu budynku energooszczędnego od producenta do klienta. Utworzenie modelu biznesowego moŝliwe jest po zmianie jednego lub kilku aspektów w otoczeniu rynkowym. Dane na temat zuŝycia energii są wyraŝone w odniesieniu od powierzchni netto.

6 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 6 of 63 2 METODY 2.1 Analiza SWOT Analiza SWOT firm zostanie utworzona dla kaŝdego kraju oddzielnie w celu zobrazowania potencjału rynkowego, a takŝe głównych czynników i barier ograniczających rozwój budownictwa energooszczędnego. W analizie zostaną rozdzielone wewnętrzne i zewnętrzne kwestie. Wewnętrzne kryteria to mocne i słabe strony firmy, podczas gdy zewnętrzne zagadnienia odnoszą się do szans i zagroŝeń istniejących w otoczeniu zewnętrznym firmy. W niniejszym raporcie, celem analizy są firmy, które oferują budynki energooszczędne lub biorą udział w procesie produkcyjnym poszczególnych elementów. Tabla 1. Zasada analizy SWOT Wewnętrzne mocne strony Zewnętrzne szanse Wewnętrzne słabe strony Zewnętrze zagroŝenia Badając mocne i słabe strony samego budownictwa niskoenergetycznego, pojawiają się następujące pytania: Jakie są główne korzyści, które firma moŝe otrzymać za zaangaŝowanie w projekt i budowę budynku energooszczędnego? Jakie są główne wady firm, które biorą udział w procesie projektowania i budowy budynku energooszczędnego? Podczas rozwaŝania szans i zagroŝeń pytania, na jakie naleŝy udzielić odpowiedzi to: Jakie są główne zewnętrzne szanse firmy, która bierze udział w procesie projektowania i budowy budynku eneergooszczędnego? Jakie są główne zagroŝenia zewnętrzne dla firmy, która bierze udział w procesie projektowania i budowy budynku energooszczędnego? 2.2 Scenariusze Ocenie poddano trzy róŝne scenariusze sytuacji rynkowej budynków energooszczędnych. RozwaŜono następujące scenariusze zwykły (kontynuacja obecnych praktyk), szybkich zmian (szybkie wdroŝenie nowych technologii) i zmiany w sposobie pracy rynku (nagły skok udziałów w rynku). Scenariusze wybrano w celu oceny moŝliwych efektów polityki Unii Europejskiej do 2020 roku. Zadania związane z efektywnością energetyczną budynków zawarte zostały w nowelizacji dyrektywy EPBD, zgodnie, z którą wszystkie nowe budynki powinny być energooszczędne do 2020 roku (tu przyjęto sformułowanie prawie zeroenergetyczny). Dwa przeciwne scenariusze zostały sformułowane tak, Ŝe jeden ocenia hipotetyczną poraŝkę polityki Unii Europejskiej z kolei drugi jeszcze szybsze niŝ załoŝono zmiany na rynku. Zwykły scenariusz zakłada, Ŝe cele Unii Europejskie do 2020 roku nie

7 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 7 of 63 zostaną osiągnięte zgodnie z harmonogramem, scenariusz szybkiej zmiany oznacza, Ŝe cel zostanie osiągnięty i ostatni ze scenariuszy zmiany w sposobie pracy rynku oznacza niespodziewanie szybki samodzielny rozwój segmentu rynku budynków energooszczędnych Scanariusz zwykły - kontynuacja obecnych praktyk Przy obecnej tendencji w branŝy budowlanej firmy będą kontynuować dotychczasowe praktyki budowlane do momentu, w którym zostaną wymuszone zmiany. Budownictwo energooszczędne nie zwiększy swojego dotychczasowego udziału w rynku a więc cele Unii Europejskiej do 2020 roku nie zostaną osiągnięte. Nowe budynki nadal będą budowane według obecnych praktyk. Ten scenariusz daje moŝliwość z jednej strony, oceny skutków poraŝki polityki Unii, a z drugiej strony porównanie innych alternatywnych scenariuszy, gdzie równieŝ przewidziano brak zmian w sposobie działania rynku Scenariusz szybkich zmian (cele Unii Europejskie osiągnięte do 2020 roku) Scenariusz szybkich zmian oznacza osiągniecie do 2020 roku standardu budynku prawie zeroenergetycznego przez wszystkie nowobudowane budynki mieszklane. Budynek prawie zeroenergetyczny oznacza budynek o bardzo niskim zuŝyciu energii bliskim zero. Scenariusz zbudowany jest, jako prosty liniowy rozwój z obecnego udziału typów budynków, tak, aby nowopowstające obiekty w 2020 r. stanowiły w 100% budynki niskoenergetyczne Scanariusz zmiany w sposobie pracy rynku Scanarisuz zmiany w sposobie pracy rynku zakłada szybką zmianę praktyk uczestników rynku, całkowitą reformę sytuacji na rynku w okresie pięciu lat, prawdopodobnie zmiany będą napędzane przez gwałtowny wzrost świadomości społecznej (pociągnięcie rynku) lub innowacyjne produkty proponowane przez konkurujące firmy (impuls technologiczny). W ten sposób cele Unii Europejskie do 2020 roku zostaną osiągnięte przed czasem. Taki scenariusz jest technicznie moŝliwy, jak i niezbędne produkty i technologie są juŝ dostępne. Jednak wymaga on znaczących zmian w zachowaniu ludzi, jak i firm, które uczestniczą w procesie budowlanym. Ogólnie rzecz biorąc, stopy wzrostu udziałów budynków energooszczędnych w rynku w tym scenariuszu są bardzo ambitne i obecnie wydają się mało prawdopodobne. Jednak w przeszłości zdarzały się przypadki, gdzie podobne nagłe niespodziewane zmiany szybko wpływały na strukturę rynków (np. liczba pobrań muzyki wzrosła z blisko 0% udziału i w ciągu mniej niŝ pięciu lat stała się najpopularniejszym sposobem dostępu do muzyki na rynku). Ten scenariusz oferuje moŝliwość oceny skutków szybszych zmian niŝ zaproponowanych przez politykę Unii Europejskiej.

8 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 8 of 63 3 COUNTRY-SPECIFIC SCENARIO AND SWOT ANALYSIS 3.1 Denmark Introduction In Denmark, the path towards improved energy-efficiency in buildings is already clear and the question is how to speed up this development. Regulations about energy efficiency have been introduced and they are revised every five year. Also, the environmental awareness among Danish people is considerably high. According to the two surveys directed to individual house builders and real estate experts, many builders are familiar with different low-energy house concepts, and also experts think that the situation is relatively good with sufficient expertise, services and products available in the market (Ahvenniemi et al. 2011). Also the state has taken a rather active role in promoting energy efficiency measures in buildings Current situation of the very low-energy housing market In 2011, approximately 25% of the newly built residential buildings in Denmark were lowenergy and 5% are very low-energy buildings, which inform about a fairly good market situation in the country. During the next 10 years the construction market for residential buildings seems to be satisfactory as an average of 1% increase in yearly construction has been forecasted. Energy consumption for heating (of spaces and domestic water) is slightly lower than the North European average (107,5 kwh/m2/a in normal, 77 kwh/m2/a in lowenergy and 53,7 kwh/m2/a in very low-energy detached houses). More details are presented in figure 4. Figure 1. Average energy consumption (kwh/a/m²) in each building type in Denmark. The costs of constructing a low-energy or very low-energy houses in Denmark is approximately 2 and 5% more expensive, as can be seen in table 3.

9 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 9 of 63 Table 2. Average construction costs ( per m²) of each housing type. Normal Low-energy Very low-energy Detached houses Semi-detached houses Blocks of flats SWOT-analyses for companies The following table presents the SWOT-analyses for companies involved with constructing/providing very low-energy residential buildings. Table 3. SWOT-analyses for companies in Denmark. Strengths: - Required expertise, services and products are available in the market to a sufficient extent. - Low-energy construction can be an important marketing argument in Denmark. - It is assumed that low-energy construction will increase the value of the building. - Danish people are interested in energy efficient buildings and aware about low-energy building concepts. - Builders are willing to pay an additional investment cost for low-energy buildings. - German Passive House standard is sometimes used. Weaknesses: - Lack of coordination of knowledge between craftsmen and technical advisors (and the whole construction industry). - In densely populated areas with an eco-friendly collective heat supply there is no need to build low-energy houses (Blomsterberg 2011). Opportunities: - Regulations about energy-efficiency are revised every five year and construction of low-energy houses will become mainstream in the future. - The state has taken an active role in promoting energy efficiency. - It has been predicted that electricity consumption will increase in the future which encourages focusing on electricity savings. - Several low-energy house performance projects in Denmark serve as great examples

10 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 10 of 63 and they increase knowledge about energy-efficient construction. - Private developers are major actors in the housing market. Threats: - There is no clear definition of very low-energy buildings, except for the basic lowenergy definition in the Danish Building regulation (Blomsterberg 2011). - Insufficient financial incentives for energy efficient solutions Scenarios and Business Models 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % business as usual fast change change in market modes of operation 100 % 100 % 90 % 90 % 80 % 80 % 70 % 70 % 60 % 60 % 50 % 50 % 40 % 40 % 30 % 30 % 20 % 20 % 10 % 10 % 0 % 0 % Figure 2 Market shares of different building types among new buildings for the three scenarios described in 3.3 for Denmark. Green represents very low-energy, red low-energy and blue normal buildings. According to the forecasted development of market shares, Denmark has a relatively high share of low-energy and very low-energy buildings to start with, so the industry has already adapted to producing them. This makes the fast change scenario relatively likely in Denmark; in fact, it is not far from the trend so far. Therefore, for Denmark, the BAU scenario represents a lapse in development. Change in market modes of operation also seems more likely for Denmark than for some of the other countries studied. Fast Change (meeting the EU 2020 target) In this scenario the EU 2020 will be met in time. This can happen if the market environment undergoes some changes in terms of some of the PEST-aspects (political, economic, sociocultural or technological). As Denmark is already on the way towards improved energy efficiency in buildings (approximately 25% of residential buildings built in 2011 being very low-energy buildings), the Fast Change scenario is plausible (see first graph in figure 5). Constructing a very-low energy house is approximately only 5% more expensive than building a standard one, and therefore investing in energy efficiency can be supported with lower life cycle costs. Nevertheleess, reaching the target still requires some extensive changes, taking place within the next 10 years.

11 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 11 of 63 Regulation will be revised successfully: Denmark is aiming to be CO2 neutral in year 2050, and this will require a remarkable change in buildings energy consumption. Tighter energy requirements for new and existing buildings were introduced in the Danish Building Regulations in 2010, and they will be revised in 2015 and 2020 (Blomsterberg 2011). Revision of energy requirements are essential for reaching the EU 2020 target as this will serve as a major motivation for companies to improve the energy efficiency of their residential buildings. Availability of products: Different building components for energy efficient construction do exist in the Danish market to a great extent but in order to increase the supply of very lowenergy buildings more reliable products are furthermore needed. Cooperation between different actors: In order to reach the EU 2020 target, cooperation and organization across the construction industry is highly needed. Especially enhanced coordination of knowledge between craftsmen and techincal advisors when building a singlefamily house is important. Obviously, universities and other educational establishments have an important role in increasing the level of knowledge within different construction industry professionals. In addition to these, spreading information about very low-energy construction is highly important in order to increase the knowledge about benefits of energy saving. Also encouraging the energy labelling of houses will assumably help in increasing the value of very low-energy houses and, hence, lead to a growing demand. Figure 3: Business Model for Fast Change scenario in Denmark. Change in Market Modes of Operation

12 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 12 of 63 In this scenario the EU 2020 will be met but already 4 years earlier than in the Fast Change scenario. This can happen if the market environment undergoes remarkable changes; all or some of the PEST-aspects (political, economic, socio-cultural or technological) changing. Even if low-energy and very low-energy houses already have entered the housing market in Denmark to some extent, the second scenario is still not very credible (see second graph in figure 5). Reaching the EU 2020 target already by year 2016 would require remarkable changes in the market environment. As energy efficiency requirements will anyways (according to the current plan) be tightened and needed construction products already exist in the market to sufficient extent, the most important required change (assuming that the changes presented in the Fast Change scenario will occur) would be an increase in the customers preferences. Higher willingness to buy/invest: In Denmark, a large group of young people are expected to buy a new dwelling in the coming years, and they are also the most interested ones in energy efficient houses. The interest in investing in energy efficiency needs to further increase but a growing market potential already seems to exist. Even if the young generation is both in need of buying housing and also interested in buying a very low-energy house, the older generation holds larger purchasing opportunities. Therefore it is essential that the demand by the older generations will increase, and this should be promoted by informing about the additional economic value and other benefits that very low-energy houses can offer. Financial incentives: In order to increase the demand by young house buyers, who already have shown interest in very low-energy construction, funding possiblities (e.g. affordable loans) and financial incentives (e.g. as tax reductions) are required. Figure 4: Business Model for Change in Market Modes of Operation scenario in Denmark.

13 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 13 of 63 Business as Usual The EU 2020 target might not be met in time (see third graph in figure 5) if the following weaknesses and threats from the SWOT-analyses will constitute remarkable barriers: - Lack of coordination of knowledge between craftsmen and technical advisors (and the whole construction industry). - In densely populated areas with eco-friendly collective heat supply there will be no need to build low-energy houses. - There is no clear definition of very low-energy buildings, except for the basic low-energy definition in the Danish Building regulation. If this will not change, it is not very likely that very low-energy building construction will take off. - There will not be more financial incentives for energy efficient solutions. - The stagnation of the construction sector will take over and new inventions and development will not be supported. 3.2 Estonia Introduction In Estonia, the interest in low-energy construction has remained low mostly because of the high prices and lack of information. Only few pilot projects demonstrating the benefits of very low-energy construction exist and therefore it is difficult to disseminate information about the benefits of energy-efficient buildings. Nevertheless, a growing interest in environmental issues exists, and this might contribute to a growing interest also in low-energy construction. Old blocks of flats form the Soviet-era form a large share of residential building stock. This is an opportunity in the sense that these buildings are in need of repair, and improvements in energy-efficiency could be carried out simultaneously. Still, the extensiveness and high expenses will constitute problems for these future renovation projects Current situation of the very low-energy housing market In 2011, less than 1% of the newly built residential buildings in Estonia were low-energy buildings and even fewer were very low-energy buildings. The construction market for residential buildings seems fairly promising with a 3% forecasted yearly increase. Energy consumption for heating (of spaces and domestic water) is much higher compared to the North European average (190 kwh/a/m² in normal, 90 kwh/a/m² in low-energy and 60 kwh/a/m² in very low-energy detached houses), which shows an enormous potential for energy savings in buildings. (More details are presented in figure 8.) Constructing a lowenergy detached house is, on average, 20% more, and constructing a very low-energy house even 50% more expensive compared to the costs of building a standard house.

14 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 14 of 63 Figure 5. Average energy consumption (kwh/a/m²) for heating in each housing type in Estonia SWOT-analyses for companies The following table presents the SWOT-analyses for companies involved with constructing/providing very low-energy residential buildings. Table 4. SWOT-analyses for companies in Estonia. Strengths: - An increasing interest in energy efficiency of buildings exists. - Information about profitability of low-energy construction is available. Weaknesses: - An Estonian passive house standard has not been created yet (Blomsterberg 2011). - Insufficient or false information about low-energy construction might be presented. - Very high prices of very low-energy buildings might disencourage investments. - Designers and engineers are considerably old fashioned. - Required components might be difficult to find. Opportunities: - LCC is becoming more popular and better known (although very few are implementing these practices) (Blomsterberg 2011). - The European Energy Performance Directive (with the law about Energy Performance Certificate) will further promote very low-energy construction.

15 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 15 of 63 - Energy consumption for heating in blocks of flats is very high which means high energy bills. - Old blocks of flats which are in need of repair (and improvements in energy efficiency) constitute a large share of the housing stock. - The state has implemented several measures to promote energy efficiency of buildings, e.g. regulations, trainings, workshops, funding. - Kindergarden Kaseke, which was built according to very low-energy standards, serve as a successful example. Threats: - Only few low-energy building examples have been built so far -> No monitored data and experience about low-energy buildings exist (Blomsterberg 2011). - Further slowdown in the economy and in the construction field will form a barrier for very low-energy construction to spread. (Blomsterberg 2011). - The distribution of income is very uneven and only the affluent part of the population has the possibility to invest in low-energy buildings. - The level of education and information considering low-energy construction is low Scenarios and Business Models 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % business as usual fast change change in market modes of operation 100 % 100 % 90 % 90 % 80 % 80 % 70 % 70 % 60 % 60 % 50 % 50 % 40 % 40 % 30 % 30 % 20 % 20 % 10 % 10 % 0 % 0 % Figure 6 Market shares of different building types among new buildings for the three scenarios described in 3.3 for Estonia. Green represents very low-energy, red low-energy and blue normal buildings. So far low-energy and very low-energy buildings have been uncommon in Estonia. A pessimistic view of the future development is shown by the BAU scenario where no changes are expected. However, in recent years there has developed interest in low-energy construction and more and more buildings have been built to consume less energy. The fast change scenario can be seen as a plausible continuation to that development. The change in market modes of operation scenario, however, would probably need determined concerted action from the stakeholders to be realized.

16 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 16 of 63 Fast Change (meeting the EU 2020 target) As the interest in energy efficient construction seems to be increasing, the realization of the Fast Change scenario might not be impossible. Adopting the directive of the European Parliament in 2010 and the law about energy performance certificate (implemented in 2009) indicate that Estonia is trying to reach the fast change scenario with help of political and legislative acts. A positive matter is that technical expertise and required products do exist in the Estonian construction market, but information about them might be difficult to find. According to a questionnaire sent to individual house builders it appears that in general, Estonian house builders are aware of the low-energy house concept, although not many are currently interested in it. Also the high (higher than average) energy consumption of Estonian buildings should encourage people in making savings in energy consumption. Nevertheless, remarkable barriers such as high price and the lack of information about the benefits of constructing a very low-energy house, still need to be overcome, and large changes are required to take place during the next 10 years. Information about Passive house (pilots) and monitored data: Not enough of passive house pilot projects exist in Estonia which could show the benefits of very low-energy construction. Pilots would receive a great deal of attention by many different actors and they would serve as useful examples encouraging house buyers as well as construction companies. Also monitored data is needed to illustrate the real benefits of energy efficiency investments. Improved education: In Estonia, the state has already been involved with promoting energy efficiency of buildings by training specialists and engineers as well as organising workshops to raise the awareness of energy consumers. Nevertheless, it has been presented that Estonian designers and engineers are still considerably old fashioned and not willing to learn about new technologies. This will be essential in order to further the development of the very low-energy housing and related products market. Cheaper price: As the gap between the affluent and indigent people is growing, and the situation of the middle-class is deteriorating, the growing demand among the whole population will not be possible unless the prices of very low-energy houses will not decrease significantly.

17 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 17 of 63 Figure 7. Business Model for Fast Change scenario in Estonia. Change in Market Modes of Operation In Estonia s case, reaching the EU 2020 target already by year 2016 is not very likely to happen. Even if the Fast Change scenario might be plausible if some major changes in the political, economic and socio-cultural environment will occur, further speeding up of very low-energy house construction seems impossible unless major changes, both in the demand but also supply side, will take place. In order to reach the Change in Market Modes of Operation scenario, changes regarding the following matters will be needed (in addition to the changes presented in the Fast Change scenario): Interest in very low-energy house construction needs to increase outstandingly in order to maintain the level of demand which would be needed in this scenario. This might not be an impossible challenge as the trend of constructing single-, two-family and terraced houses, instead of blocks of flats, will increase the demand of new houses. The increasing energy prices definitely encourage people to make savings in energy consumption as houses with larger space areas are now demanded. Informing about the benefits of energy efficient buildings is essential in order to increase the demand for very low-energy houses, as the benefits are currently not widely known. Even if awareness of and interest in Life Cycle Costing is growing (Blomsterberg 2011), this kind of consideration should become much more common and be implemented also in practice. Financing opportunities must be provided if the interest in very low-energy construction should rise. In Estonia funding possibilities are available for public sector (e.g. Kredex, IEE, Swiss Contribution) and also different substitutes are provided for energy efficiency

18 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 18 of 63 improvements in the residential sector (Implementing EPBD 2010). Nevertheless, neither individual builders nor construction sector experts seem to be aware of these opportunities, and therefore they should substantially be advertised better. Increasing supply: In order to reach the Change in Market Modes of Operation scenario, not only the demand needs to increase extensively but also the supply side needs to undergo some major changes. Different actors involved in the production chain needs to be assured about the additional value that very low-energy house construction could provide them. It seems that real estate experts already consider low-energy construction as a positive marketing argument, and also builders have already seen advertisements related to energy efficient construction. This suggests that changes on the supply side might not be too hard to achieve, as different actors from the production industry can see the benefits that can be achieved. Figure 8. Business Model for Change in Market Modes of Operation scenario in Estonia. Business as Usual In case that several of the following matters, listed below, will occur, Business as Usual scenario will come to fruition, and the EU 2020 target will not be reached. In regard of the current political acts and the level of demand, this scenario is far less plausible than the Fast Change scenario, but also this possibility needs to be considered. - The current high prices of very low-energy buildings will not decrease and this will disencourage energy efficiency investments.

19 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 19 of 63 - Further slowdown in the economy and in the construction field will form a barrier for spreading of very low-energy construction. - The distribution of income will prevent potential customers from investing in low-energy buildings. - The level of education and information considering low-energy construction remains low, and different construction sector professionals remain old fashioned.

20 NorthPass Scenarios, business models and examples for very low-energy housing market. Page 20 of Finland Introduction The market situation for very low-energy buildings in Finland is fairly good. Legal obligations (for example the energy performance certificate) will further the implementation of low-energy construction practices, and some large construction companies have already committed to construct only low-energy buildings. The environmental awareness among Finnish people is considerably high and individual builders seem to be aware of different lowenergy building concepts (Ahvenniemi et al. 2011). The largest problem for low-energy construction is the scattered field of expertise and information although information campaigns have been launched in order to partly solve this problem Current situation of the very low-energy housing market In Finland, 8% of the new residential buildings built in 2011, were built according to very low-energy standard, and 31% were low-energy houses. These figures show that energyefficiency has already been given much importance to in the housing market. However, the construction market does not look promising as no remarkable growth in the amount of construction has been forecasted for the next 10 years. The average energy consumption for heating is slightly less than the North European average (116 kwh/a/m² in normal, 96 kwh/a/m² in low-energy and 50 kwh/a/m² in very low-energy detached houses). On average, constructing a low-energy house costs 2% and a very low-energy house 5% more than a standard house SWOT-analyses for companies The following table presents the SWOT-analyses for companies involved in constructing/providing very low-energy residential buildings. Table 5. SWOT-analyses for companies in Finland. Strengths: - The resale value of a very low-energy house is estimated to be 10-30% more than compared to a conventional one. Existing examples of very low-energy construction support this statement. - Some large companies have already committed to low-energy construction and they are spreading the trend. - The environmental awareness of people is increasing. Weaknesses: - A very low-energy house is a rather new concept in Finland (only a dozen of this kind of buildings have been built), and the demand is still rather low. - Designers are not interested in creating new (and more expensive) design, but instead use existing and conventional one (Blomsterberg 2011).