1 ROK XXXIX Ban Kredy Ban Kredy Czasopsmo NBP pośwęcone eonom fnansom Naonal Ban of Poland s Journal on Economcs and Fnance lpec Mchał Gradzewcz, Jan Hagemeer, Zbgnew ółews Globalzaon and he Polsh Economy: Sylzed Facs and Smulaons usng a Compuable General Equlbrum Model Wpływ globalzac na gospodarę Pols. Sylzowane fay symulace na podsawe modelu równowag ogólne (CGE) 14 Grzegorz Hała Przegląd meod badana płynnośc banów Revew of Mehods for Lqudy Analyss of Bans 28 Aradusz Ke, Tomasz Ke Koncenraca branżowa ao elemen zarządzana ryzyem porfela redyowego w prayce polsch banów propozyca meody analzy Secoral Concenraon as an Elemen of Cred Porfolo Rs Managemen: The Case of Polsh Bans - Prospal for Mehods of Analyss 37 Sansław Urbaƒs Wpływ nnowac wybranych czynnów na równowagę cenową walorów noowanych na Gełdze Paperów Waroścowych w Warszawe Impac of Innovaon of Seleced Facors on Prce Equlbrum on he Warsaw Soc Exchange 50 Adam Jasƒs Sprawozdane z semnarum Narodowego Banu Polsego oraz Narodowego Banu Szwacar p. Moneary Polcy n he Changng World Moneary Order (Polya penężna w zmenaącym sę śwaowym porządu monearnym), maa 2008 r., Kraów Repor on he semnar Moneary Polcy n he Changng World Moneary Order, May 2008 organzed n Cracow by he Naonal Ban of Poland and he Swss Naonal Ban 58 Krzyszof Jacowcz Ken Mahews, John Thompson, Eonoma banowośc Revew of he boo by Ken Mahews, John Thompson, Economcs of Banng 62 Hanna Sochaca-Krysa Sansław Owsa (red.), Planowane budżeowe a loaca zasobów Revew of he boo eded by Sansław Owsa, Budge Planng and Allocaon of Resources Europesa Inegraca Monearna (educaonal nser n Polsh only) Mrosław Kachnews Wspólny penądz a negraca rynów fnansowych Common Currency and Inegraon of Fnancal Mares
2 Rada Nauowa/Scenfc Councl Peer Bacé (Oeserrechsche Naonalban), Wocech Charemza (Unversy of Leceser), Sansław Gomuła (London School of Economcs and Polcal Scence), Mare Góra (Szoła Główna Handlowa), Mare Gruszczyńs (Szoła Główna Handlowa), Urszula Grzelońsa (Szoła Główna Handlowa), Danua Hübner (European Commsson), Krzyszof Jauga (Aadema Eonomczna we Wrocławu), Barłome Kamńs (Unversy of Maryland; The World Ban), Jerzy Koneczny (Wlfrd Laurer Unversy), Wocech Maceews (Unwersye Warszaws), Krzyszof Marczews (Szoła Główna Handlowa; Insyu Badań Rynu, Konsumpc Konunur), Ewa Mlaszewsa (Unwersye Eonomczny w Kraowe), Tmohy P. Opela (DePaul Unversy, Chcago), Wold Orłows (Nezależny Ośrode Badań Eonomcznych; Szoła Bznesu Polechn Warszawse), Zbgnew Polańs (zasępca przewodnczącego/depuy Charman, Narodowy Ban Pols; Szoła Główna Handlowa), Bogusław Perza (Szoła Główna Handlowa; Narodowy Ban Pols), Wesława Przybylsa-Kapuścńsa (Aadema Eonomczna w Poznanu), Zbyne Revenda (Vysoá sola eonomcá v Praze), Mchel A. Robe (Amercan Unversy; U.S. Commody Fuures Tradng Commsson), Mchał Ruows (The World Ban), Sławomr Sansław Srzype (przewodnczący/charman, prezes/presden, Narodowy Ban Pols), Adalber Wnler (European Cenral Ban), Charles Wyplosz (Graduae Insue of Inernaonal Sudes, Geneva) Kolegum Redacyne/Edoral Board Por Boguszews, Tomasz Chmelews, Elżbea Czarny, Krzyszof Gaews (serearz olegum redacynego/asssan Edor), Małgorzaa Iwancz-Drozdowsa, Ryszard Kooszczyńs, Adam Koronows, Wocech Pacho, Bogusław Perza (zasępca redaora naczelnego/depuy Managng Edor), Zbgnew Polańs (redaor naczelny/managng Edor), Andrze Rzońca, Cezary Wóc, Zbgnew Żółews Zgodne z wyazem sporządzonym przez Mnserswo Nau Szolncwa Wyższego dla porzeb przyszłe oceny parameryczne ednose nauowych, publacom nauowym w Banu Kredyce" przyznawane es 6 punów. Werse eleronczne aryułów publowanych w Banu Kredyce" są dosępne za pośredncwem serwsu Socal Scence Research Newor (hp://www.ssrn.com) Elecronc versons of he arcles publshed n "Ban Kredy" are avalable a he Socal Scence Research Newor (hp://www.ssrn.com) Wydawca/Publsher Narodowy Ban Pols Kona/Conac ulca Śwęorzysa 11/21, Warszawa, Poland el.: fax: e-mal: hp://www.nbp.pl/banredy Proe/Proec DOCTORAD Sład Dru/Typeseng and prnng Druarna NBP/Prnng House of he NBP Korea/Edng Deparamen Komunac Społeczne NBP/Deparmen of Informaon and Publc Relaons NBP Prenumeraa/Subscrpon RUCH SA - wpłay na prenumeraę przymuą: ednos olporażowe właścwe dla mesca zameszana lub sedzby prenumeraora (dosawa w sposób uzgodnony). Wpłay przymue Oddzał Kraowe Dysrybuc Prasy RUCH SA na ono: Peao SA IV O/Warszawa lub asa Oddzału. Cena prenumeray ze zlecenem dosawy za grancę es o 100% wyższa od raowe. Zlecena na prenumeraę dewzową, przymowane od osób zameszałych za grancą, realzowane są od dowolnego numeru w danym rou alendarzowym. Wpłay są przymowane na oresy waralne w ermne: do na I w. nasępnego rou, do na II w.br., do 5.06 na III w. br., do 5.09 na IV w. br. Informace o warunach prenumeray w RUCH SA OKDP, ul. Jana Kazmerza 31/ Warszawa, można uzysać pod el , ^ ^ Prenumeraa własna zamawane poedynczych egzemplarzy: Narodowy Ban Pols - Deparamen Komunac Społeczne, ulca Śwęorzysa 11/21, Warszawa, naład: 1200 ono: Cenrala NBP - Deparamen Operacyno-Rachunowy nr ona: NBP DOR r ,00 zł, 1 egz. - 17,00 zł
3 Ban Kredy lpec 2008 Macroeconomcs Globalzaon and he Polsh Economy: Sylzed Facs and Smulaons usng a Compuable General Equlbrum Model Wpływ globalzac na gospodar Pols. Sylzowane fay symulace na podsawe modelu równowag ogólne (CGE) Mchał Gradzewcz, Jan Hagemeer, Zbgnew Żółews * receved: 8 November 2007, fnal verson receved: 26 May 2008, acceped: 18 June 2008 Absrac The am of he paper s o quanavely assess he mpac of globalzaon on he economy of Poland n he medum erm. Four channels of he mpac of globalzaon are dsngushed: () rade openness, () producvy mprovemen, () labour mgraons, (v) lberalzaon of he servces secor. We employ a compuable general equlbrum model wh mulple ndusres and households and mperfec compeon feaures. Our resuls show posve and que sgnfcan effecs of globalzaon on he performance of he Polsh economy, semmng manly from producvy mprovemens and lberalzaon of servces. The szeable expeced mgraons resul n negave effecs of globalzaon by decreasng growh poenal and causng upward pressure on wages. A he secoral level, globalzaon s parcularly benefcal o some exporng secors and slled segmens of he labour mare. Keywords: globalzaon, compuable general equlbrum, labour mgraons, rade lberalzaon JEL: C68 F15 F22 Sreszczene Celem nnesze pracy es loścowa ocena wpływu globalzac na gospodarę polsą w średnm orese. Analzuemy czery anały oddzaływana: 1) owarość gospodar, (2) zwęszene produywnośc, (3) mgrace zarobowe oraz (4) lberalzacę seora usług. Używamy polczalnego modelu równowag ogólne (CGE), óry uwzględna neracę wszysch seorów gospodar, rynu pracy, gospodarsw domowych, a aże nedosonale onurencyną sruurę rynu produów. Wyn wsazuą na dodan wpływ globalzac na polsą gospodarę, a nasoneszym anałam oddzaływana są zwęszene produywnośc lberalzaca seora usług. Mgrace maą negaywny wpływ na gospodarę ze względu na zmneszene poencału wzrosowego zwęszane pres płacowe. Su globalzac są szczególne orzysne dla seorów proesporowych dla gospodarsw śwadczących usług pracy wywalfowane. Słowa luczowe: globalzaca, równowaga ogólne, mgrace zarobowe, lberalzaca handlu * Naonal Ban of Poland, Economc Insue. The vews presened n hs paper are hose of he auhors and no of he nsuon hey represen. Correspondng auhor s e-mal:
4 Maroeonoma Ban Kredy lpec Inroducon Over he las decades, global processes have ganed a grea deal of sgnfcance as a facor mporan for he growh of Poland s economy. We beleve ha was, n fac, he concdence of wo maor developmens. Frs, wha s now called globalzaon n he economc leraure, should be more precsely named acceleraon of globalzaon snce, as poned ou and analysed, e.g. n Dens e al. (2006) s he las 1 2 decades ha have wnessed a speedng up of he already ongong secular globalzaon process. Second, Poland broe off he communs sysem and nroduced mare reforms, leadng, among ohers, o a rapd openng of he economy n 1989 and subsequen years,.e. he me when he globalzaon processes were ganng momenum. Then, wh furher srenghenng of mare economy mechansm, progressng negraon wh he European Unon and fnally, he accesson o he EU n 2004, he Polsh economy has become subec o global economy nfluence smlarly as oher medum-ncome counres of he regon. The global facors nfluence on Poland s economy manfess self hrough he followng channels: rade and capal flows, lberalzaon, ncreasng foregn compeon, nnovaon absorpon, nensve ouward and nward labour mgraons, growng mporance of global facors n he process of shapng he domesc nflaon. Whle he mpac of parcular global processes on he Polsh economy have been analyzed and quanfed (e.g. Cenrum Europese Naoln 2003; Orłows 2004; NBP 2004; Allard 2006; Hagemeer, Mchałe 2007), here has been scarce, f any, research amed a a quanave assessmen of how globalzaon, undersood as a varey of nerconneced processes, affecs he Polsh economy. 1 The am of hs paper s o fll ha gap wh a quanave assessmen of he mpac of ey globalzaon processes on he Polsh economy n he long run, usng he comprehensve mehodologcal framewor of a compuable general equlbrum model. The paper s organzed as follows. In he frs secon, we revew relaed leraure and dscuss he channels hrough whch globalzaon affecs he economy of Poland. In he subsequen secon, we descrbe he smulaon expermens and dscuss her resuls. The las secon concludes. 2. Revew of leraure and sylzed facs on globalzaon for Poland 2.1 Revew of leraure Gven he fac ha globalzaon s one of he mos popular words n conemporary economc publcaons, 1 A comprehensve dscusson of globalzaon, wh specal emphass on global mbalances and mplcaons for moneary polcy, may be found n Rybńs (2006). he revew of even he mos mporan conrbuons would be beyond he scope of hs paper. A revew of recen leraure focused on globalzaon and s mpac on economes of he European Unon (EU15), ogeher wh an neresng quanave assessmen of poenal fuure effecs of global processes on growh of he EU- 15 n he long-run may be found n Dens e. al. (2006). The auhors adop a sandard noon of globalzaon, resulng n an ncreased mporance of rade and capal flows, nernaonal R&D flows and mgraons. Then, usng relevan ndcaors, hey assess he mpac of globalzaon on he EU-15 economy n he pas (snce 1820). They furher presen a model-based 2 quanave esmae of poenal fuure macro benefs and coss of globalzaon for he EU n he long run ( ). Auhors conclude ha globalzaon have led o an ncrease of lvng sandards n EU-15 by abou 20% over he perod of due o he EU s growng negraon no he world s economy (rade openness effec). They sress ha nernaonal spllover effecs of oal facor producvy (TFP) are mporan and predc ha producvy growh n Europe over he perod of would be abou 30% lower whou openness, even whou he ln beween capal accumulaon and TFP. The smulaed long run effec of globalzaon s an addonal welfare gan of 8% of GDP per capa. Auhors noe ha real gans from globalzaon are dynamc n naure and hey resul from resrucurng and nnovaon, nduced by an ncrease n compeon and echnology spllover effecs and sll ransfers. The oher sudes offerng quanave assessmens of globalzaon usually focus on specfc global processes, ypcally rade lberalsaon. Varous rade lberalzaon processes are beleved o have had a sgnfcan effec on he volume of he world GDP e.g. he esmaed oal effec of he Uruguay round s an annual ncrease n he world GDP growh by 1 pp (for a revew see e.g. Krugman, Obsfeld 2005, p. 335). Effecs of he curren Doha round of he WTO are ye unnown snce he negoaons are sll n progress, however, he recen sudy by Francos e al. (2005), esmaes he sac gans o equal 0.5% of he world GDP. The esmaed ncrease n he world rade due o he (unfnshed) Doha round n servces amouns o 12%, whle merchandse expors of he developng counres o he EU are expeced o ncrease by 16%. Prevously heavly proeced global rade n seleced goods s beleved o ncrease consderably, e.g. by 41% (processed foods), 34% (exles and clohng) and 16% (sugar). There are several papers esmang he effecs of Poland s accesson o he European Unon and he Sngle Mare. A recen one, by Hagemeer and Mchałe (2007), esmaes he GDP ncrease resulng from he removal of non-arff barrers a he level of 1-1.2% (shor-long run) and he oal welfare effec a he level of % of GDP. 2 An nernaonal macro model (QUEST) has been used as he smulaon ool.
5 Ban Kredy lpec 2008 Macroeconomcs 2.2 Sylzed facs on globalzaon effecs n Poland Snce he begnnng of 1990s, he Polsh economy has deepened s negraon wh he world economy. For nsance, rade openness, measured by he rao of expors and mpors o GDP ncreased from 49% n 1991 o 82.9% n The soc of foregn drec nvesmen n Poland ncreased from vrually null n he begnnng of 1990s (2.83 bllon USD) o over 92 bllon. USD n 2005 (.e. abou 31% of GDP). Inward FDIs have been mporan no only as a source of nvesmen fundng (addonal o domesc savngs), bu also as a powerful engne of he ncrease n producvy. The nflow of foregn capal and mpors of machnery and equpmen have been maor sources behnd he producvy growh n Poland, gven he low nensy of domesc R&D acves. 3 The mpac of FDIs, mpors, and oher global economy spllovers on he oal facor producvy growh n Poland s documened e.g. n Kolasa, Żółews (2004), Kolasa (2005), Paows, Van Ar (2005) and Clare (2003). FDIs conrbue sgnfcanly o he ncreasng openness of he Polsh economy, hrough hey ncrease boh he expor poenal and he propensy o mpors. Accordng o IKCHZ (2006), enerprses wh foregn capal were responsble for 66% of oal Polsh expors n 2006 compared o 57% n Snce a large number of exporers use mpored subcomponens n her acvy, more han 86% of mporers are exporers a he same me (NBP 2007). Globalzaon processes, and n parcular he accesson o he European Unon n 2004, have consderably affeced he labour mare n Poland. Due o wage dfferenals and large pool of unemployed 4 and nacve people, mgraons acceleraed afer 1 May 2004 o he level sgnfcan for boh he Polsh labour mare and he counres recevng Polsh émgrés (manly he Grea Bran and Ireland). There are dfferen esmaes of he acual sze and duraon of ouward mgraons snce he accesson. The Cenre for Mgraons Research of he Unversy of Warsaw (Oóls 2006) esmaes he ouward mgraons a 3% of labour force, whch s subsanal. Moreover, double of ha may sll emgrae. Shrnng domesc labour force affecs he domesc labour mare, especally ha mgrans are relavely beer educaed han he populaon on average (Kaczmarczy ). Ths s one of he maor reasons for rsng shorages of slled worers as perceved by enerprses. For nsance, accordng o he Naonal Ban of Poland s survey of enerprses, as of frs quarer of 2007, frms repored he shorage of slled labour as a second maor barrer o growh whle hs barrer was perceved among he leas mporan ones only a year earler. 6 Increasng wage nequales beween slled and unslled worers may also be arbued o globalzaon. In secors wh nensve mpor peneraon, FDI and expors, he wage nequales consderably ncreased (e.g. food producs he rao of slled o unslled labour wages ncreased from 1.8 n 1997 o 2.3 n 2004, moor vehcles from 1.5 o 2.0, offce machnery from 1.1 o 2.5). On he oher hand, n ndusres relavely well shelered from he global economy s mpac, such as elecrcy, gas and waer supply, he wage nequales hardly changed over he analysed perod. Whle, by s very naure, globalzaon prmarly affecs he radable secor of he economy, s also mporan for he non-radable acves, e.g. hrough capal nflows changng boh he mare srucure (he compeon effec) and boosng modernzaon (he producvy effec). Ths s of parcular mporance for he servces secor of he Polsh economy, whch s parally overregulaed and proeced. In parcular, hs refers o elecommuncaons (excessve fxed-lne elephony and nerne access charges), fnancal servces (relavely expensve and underdeveloped, e.g., wh respec o he fnancng of small and medum enerprses), newor ndusres (le ranspor or energy generaon and supples), where sae ownershp wh s ypcal neffcences domnaes. Accordng o Gradzewcz and Hagemeer (2007a), parcularly hgh monopoly marups are observed n ranspor, posal servces and elecommuncaons, real esae and busness servces. In he case of elecommuncaons, fxed-lne elecom mare s hghly monopolzed n 2005 he ncumben operaor had a 85-percen mare share. The moble segmen s operaed by an olgopoly of hree frms. Accordng o he Offce of Elecronc Communcaons UKE 2006 (he elecom regulaor) repor, he coss of oal monhly usage for an average real cusomer of fxed lne elephony were he 6h hghes n he enlarged EU n Smlarly, moble phones were he 2nd mos expensve among seleced 13 EU counres. Hgh monopoly marups lead o neffcen level of servce provson e.g. Poland had he 2nd lowes rae of broadband nerne peneraon 7 n he EU-25 n Smulaons of effecs of globalzaon on Poland s economy 3.1 Modellng approach 3 Expendure on R&D amouned o 0.57% of GDP n 2005, whch s one of he lowes records n EU25. However, s even lower han n 1995 (0.63% of GDP). 4 The unemploymen rae s sll relavely hgh n Poland (a abou 13% a he end of 2006) even hough has been decreasng fas over he las quarers ( was almos 17% he end of 2005). 5 However, hs auhor clearly saes ha here s no ground for declarng exodus of hghly slled specalss or bran dran as somemes proclamed n publc dscusson. The mpac of globalzaon on he behavour of he Polsh economy s analyzed usng a compuable general equlbrum model (for model deals consul 6 I was a barrer for 10.7% of he frms surveyed as of he frs quarer of 2007 whle only 1.8% repored hs problem n he frs quarer of All daa come from he UKE (2006).
6 Maroeonoma Ban Kredy lpec 2008 he Appendx 8 ) calbraed o he Socal Accounng Marx based on Cenral Sascal Offce (GUS) daa for Snce globalzaon s expeced o have longrun consequences, he auhors decded o assess only he long-erm mpac of globalzaon. Sarng from he basc comparave sac verson of he model, he longrun has been modelled by an nroducon of smplfed long-run changes of capal supply. The followng wosep procedure has been used o calculae he long run response of he economy o he globalzaon shocs mposed on he srucure of he model, ang no accoun he capal accumulaon. Frs, he effecs of globalzaon have been calculaed subec o a fxed capal soc consran. In he second sep, he nvesmen growh rae from he frs sep was used o calculae he resulng long run response of capal accumulaon o addonal nvesmens, 10 accordng o he formula: ΔK 1 ΔI 1 ΔI = = K δ K δ I where K s he capal soc, I s he level of nvesmen and δ s he deprecaon rae of capal. General equlbrum soluon for hs long-run level of capal s hen nerpreed as represenng long-run equlbrum afer he globalzaon shoc has been fully absorbed. Labour mare s allowed o freely adus (n erms of employmen and wages) o changes n economc acvy, hghlghng he long-run consequences of he smulaons. Produc mare s modelled n an mperfecly compeve fashon. Followng he emprcal evdence (Gradzewcz, Hagemeer 2007b), he auhors assumed ha n case of mos ndusres, companes are operang n an olgopolsc seng (Berrand) wh economes of scale semmng from fxed coss of producon. Addonally, auhors nroduced frm-level produc dfferenaon, whch s based on Dx-Sglz (1977) love-for-varey formulaon. Inal marups and he number of frms n he model are calbraed usng he resuls of Gradzewcz and Hagemeer (2007a). 3.2 Assumpons of he globalzaon smulaons In our smulaons we dsngush four channels of he mpac of globalzaon on he Polsh economy. These channels nclude: rade lberalzaon, producvy mprovemen, labour mgraons and lberalzaon of servces. 8 Full model descrpon s gven n Gradzewcz e al. (2006). 9 The laes npu-oupu able publshed by he GUS has 2000 as a base year. I s updaed o he model base year usng he RAS balancng procedure usng daa comng from he npu-oupu able, households budges, naonal accouns and oher macroeconomc daa for In oher words, he procedure assures ha addonal capal accumulaon/ decumulaon orgnaes only n nvesmens rggered by globalzaon changes. The nvesmens arsng from capal accumulaon do no augmen s soc n he long run. We assumed he long run deprecaon rae o be 8% percen on he bass of he revewed leraure. I K The merchandse rade lberalzaon s assumed o have a drec effec on he prces of mpored goods. The lberalzaon of rade wh he EU nvolves he removal of only non-arff barrers (excep agrculure), because a maory of arffs on manufacured goods are effecvely zero snce For non-eu mpors, he scope of lberalzaon, due o boh compleng of he Uruguay Round and he fuure commmens n he Doha Round of he WTO, s hgher. Followng Hoffman (2001) and Harrson e al. (1996) esmaes of he mpac of he NTB removal due o Sngle Mare Programme, s assumed ha prces of mpors from he EU go down by 2.5 percen. The prces of mpors from he res of he world fall by 10 percen. Ths number s based on he Naonal Ban of Poland s nernal sascs on prce behavour. 11 I s also assumed ha due o he lberalzaon of he EU mpors from he res of he world, prces of goods mpored from he EU fall by an addonal 1 percen. 12 In our smulaons we assume ha an ncreased foregn drec nvesmen nflow combned wh a surge n mpors rase he oal facor producvy. The overall TFP change n he economy ncreases by 1 percen, 13 however, he exac sze of secoral mposed changes s proporonal o he relaon of FDI nflow o he secor s producon. 14 The openng of mos of he EU-15 labour mares o worers from new member saes (enerng he EU n md-2004) rggered an nense ouflow of labour force, manly due o subsanal wage dfferenals. The oal mgraon effec from Poland s esmaed o be beween mllon worers (Oóls 2006), whch consues over 3% of labour force. Ths phenomenon s apparen especally among slled people, whch allows he auhors o assume ha globalzaon affecs only worers wh erary and secondary educaon. Par of he ncome earned abroad by mgrang worers s ransferred bac o he home counry. Such remances amoun o roughly 12 bllon PLN (abou 1.2% of GDP) accordng o offcal balance of paymen sascs (offcal prvae foregn ransfer sascs repor a 3 bllon PLN nflow n 2006 Q1 alone). I s assumed ha hese ransfers affec only hose households where members are assumed o mgrae (employees and self-employed). Lberalzaon of rade n servces s beleved o be dfferen from merchandse rade lberalzaon. One of 11 For nsance, he prce of he base of goods mosly affeced by globalzaon (mosly clohes, shoes, elecroncs and compuer equpmen) falls over 2006 by abou 7% (over , by abou 12%). 12 Ths addonal effec s assumed o be caused by fallng nermedae goods prces faced by EU producers. Ths number s a guessmae. 13 The sze of TFP shoc s calbraed o roughly mach resuls obaned by Dens e. al (2006) esmang he growh effecs of globalzaon for he EU-15 economy. Tang no accoun he echnology gap, we assume he mpac on Poland o be double of ha esmae. 14 One of he referees poned ou ha we gnore he capal flows ha are an mporan channel of globalzaon. Our model does no explcly model foregn drec nvesmen nor does have a fnancal mare. Thus, we assume he producvy shoc o ncorporae he producvy effecs of ncreased capal nflow o Poland resulng from foregn drec nvesmen.
7 Ban Kredy lpec 2008 Macroeconomcs s forms enals he esablshmen of servce provdng enerprses n he hos counry ha drecly compee wh ncumben frms. Globalzaon s herefore assumed o cause an nflow of frms no he servces secors (where enry was prevously barred) whch drves he profs o zero. Profs are calbraed n such a way ha requres a 20 percen ncrease n he number of frms for he economy o reach hs long-run equlbrum. In oher words, when enry barrers are removed, 20% more frms have o ener he mare n order o reach he zero-prof equlbrum Smulaon resuls 4.1 Trade lberalzaon The drop n mpor prces 16 drecly affecs he level of consumpon of fnal and nermedae goods. The oal ncrease n mpors s 3.7% (macroeconomc resuls for all smulaons are gven n Table 6). Toal expors also ncrease (by 1.9%) due o lower coss of producon, resulng from a drop n prces of mpored nermedae npus. Wh a domesc demand ncrease of abou 1.5% (consumpon rse of 1.4% and nvesmen rse of 1.6% see Table 6) rade lberalzaon resuls n an rse of GDP of 0.6% and a rse n employmen of 0.2%. Impors of manufacures ncrease by 4.3% and expors by 3.1%. (Table 1). The laer s due o a cos reducon resulng from he drop n prces of mpored nermedae goods (of 1%). Producon of manufacured goods ncreases by 0.8%. The growh of nvesmen demand ncreases he supply of consrucon servces, whch goes up by 1.4%. The larges ncrease n mpors aes place n he food secor (11.7%), followed by nermedae 15 We based our esmae of marups over margnal coss on Gradzewcz and Hagemeer (2007b). However, a relable esmae of scale elascy for he servces secor s no avalable. Thus, as an alernave o assume a ceran pure prof rae for each secor we assumed ha he enry s barred and ha he arbrarly chosen number of frms (20%) has o ener servce ndusres n order o brng profs o zero. Ths assumes ha he rae of pure profs vares dependng on he level of esmaed marups. Specfcally, s 12% n elecommuncaons bu 5.5% n busness servces and 1% n real and wholesale rade whch s close o he esmaes of pure profs obaned usng sandard accounng daa (Gradzewcz, Hagemeer 2007a). 16 We also assume ha due o he mpor compeon, he prces of manufacures go down n he EU, whch drecly affecs he prces of Polsh expors. lgh (5.9%) and lgh (4.9%) ndusres 17. Food secor, havng only a small share of mpored nermedaes n producon coss, experences a declne n expors. On he oher hand, moor vehcles producon, where he share of mpored nermedaes s hgher han he share of domesc nermedaes, experences a surge n expors amounng o 11.2 percen. 4.2 Producvy ncrease In reacon o an ncrease of mulfacor producvy by an average of 1% (resulng from ncreased FDI nflow and ncreased mpors of echnologcally advanced goods from he EU), GDP s 3.4% hgher n he long run (manly due o capal accumulaon). The expanson of he economy and he ncrease n oupu shf he labour demand curve up n consequence employmen level s 1% hgher. Increased labour demand, combned wh an ncrease of labour producvy booss wages, whch are 3.3% hgher n he long-run. Relave abundance of capal pushes s prce down by 0.35%. Increased ncome from labour and renng capal o producon acves resuls n faser growh of dsposable ncome of households and a 3% ncrease of consumpon. Table 2 shows changes n he srucural developmen of he economy afer he TFP ncrease. As he manufacurng and mare servces secors 18 are mosly affeced by he ncrease n producvy, he coss of producon n hese ndusres declne. On he oher hand, n oher ndusres le mnng and non-mare servces, he coss of producon ncrease consderably. Hgh nvesmen demand pushes up he oupu n he consrucon ndusry. The ncreasng coss n agrculure, mnng and non-mare acves drve down he growh of expors n hese ndusres, bu smulaneously nduce relavely hgh ncrease of mpors, srenghened by an apprecaon of he currency. The consderable ncrease n producon n manufacurng, mare servces and consrucon resuls n a hgher han average ncrease of demand for labour n hese secors. The ncrease of 17 Dealed secoral resuls are no gven here o save space. They can be, however, requesed from he auhors. 18 The hghes producvy ncreases nclude: food, obacco, lgh (wearng apparel, ec), moor vehcles, pos and elecommuncaon and fnancal servces. Table 1. Smulaed secoral changes resulng from rade lberalzaon Producon Coss Expor Impor Employmen Agrculure Mnng Manufacurng Consrucon Mare servces Non-mare servces Source: Own CGE model smulaons. All changes n percen (%).
8 Maroeonoma Ban Kredy lpec 2008 Table 2. Secoral changes resulng from producvy ncrease Producon Coss Expor Impor Employmen Agrculure Mnng Manufacurng Consrucon Mare servces Non-mare servces Source: Own CGE model smulaons. All changes n percen (%). employmen n agrculure 19, mnng and non-mare acves s moderae. 4.3 Labour mgraons The ouflow of worers combned wh an ncrease of foregn remances causes a 0.5% decrease of GDP. The negave labour supply shoc (a drec resul of mgraons and an addonal ncome effec of ncreased dsposable ncome of households) pushes he wages up by 2.2% and employmen down by 1.4%. The declne of he parcpaon rae leads o a drop of unemploymen rae of 3.4%. The ncrease n labour ncome and ncreased ransfers from abroad, nduce he ncrease of dsposable ncome of households. Consumpon s hgher by 1.6%. The demand for domesc currency surges and he currency apprecaes by 0.6%, due o he nflow of remances from abroad. Currency apprecaon, combned wh he growng coss of producon n radable secors lead o a drop of expors of 5.9%. Tha s, o a large exen, an explanaon for almos no change n mpors. Changes n he srucure of he labour mare are presened n Table 3. The ouflow of worers wh secondary and erary educaon drves up her he wages by over 2.3%. Parcpaon raes and employmen declne. The relave abundance of wor force wh basc educaon ogeher wh a declnng prce of capal (n our model less educaed labour s assumed 19 Snce labour npu s measured here n me uns, an ncrease n employmen does no necessarly mean more farmers. Gven low producvy of labour n agrculure, an ncrease n employmen resulng from smulaons should be nerpreed raher as more hours wored by exsng (or even smaller) number of farmers han as an enlargemen of he populaon of farmers. The same apples o oher ndusres. o be relavely subsuable wh he capal) lm he ncrease of wages n hs mare segmen (hey ncrease by only 0.5%). Growng wage dfferenals beween less and beer educaed wor force resul n a declne of parcpaon raes among he worers wh basc educaon. As a resul, employmen n hs labour mare segmen falls. 4.4 Lberalzaon of servces The openng of servce mares nduces enry of new frms. The new long-run equlbrum s where profs are zero. When new frms ener he mare, compeon drves he level of oupu of ncumben frms down. Thus, he average cos goes up due o ncreasng reurns o scale and he long run equlbrum occurs when prces equal he average cos. Compared o he benchmar equlbrum, enry of new frms amouns o 19 24% (Table 4). The correspondng drop n frm oupu s he hghes n busness servces, rade and hoels/resaurans and amouns o 21 24%. Such a large decrease n frm oupu s due o he relavely hgh calbraed love-forvarey elascy of subsuon n hose secors (low nal marups), mang consumers prefer he ncrease n he number of varees offered over he ncrease n quany suppled by each frm. The lowes drop n frm oupu s expeced o be experenced n pos and elecommuncaons, where he calbraed elascy of subsuon beween varees s low (hgh nal marups) and he mare can accommodae more large frms. The resulng decrease n prces vares dependng on he nal level of monopolsc marups. I amouns o Table 3. Labour mare changes resulng from mgraons Educaon Toal Hgh Medum Basc Employmen Wages Parcpaon Source: Own CGE model smulaons. All changes n percen (%).