Model for Youth Monitoring in the Regional Labour Markets: Practical Results of Soft Modelling (Polish regions example)

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Miłosz Piotrowski
8 lat temu
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regions example) Marta Sosnowska Regional Labour

1 Model for Youth Monitoring in the Regional Labour Markets: Practical Results of Soft Modelling (Polish regions example) Marta Sosnowska Regional Labour Office in Białystok, Poland 24 th September 204, Frankfurt am Main

AGENDA ) A few words about the previous activities of the working group. 2) The Assumptions for the soft model to monitor the situation of young people in the labour market.

2 AGENDA ) A few words about the previous activities of the working group. 2) The Assumptions for the soft model to monitor the situation of young people in the labour market. 3) The results of the soft model estimation and verification with respect to the situation of young people. 4) Conclusions and recommendations resulting from the work carried out with the use of soft modeling.

3 Inspiration for the formation of the working group - Annual Meeting in Luxembourg, 20. December 8 th, 20at the organizational meeting, which was held at the Regional Labour Office in Rzeszów, Poland. The Declaration on partnership to develop the model of monitoring the situation of young pelople in the labour market was signed by 7 Regional Labour Offices, expressing willingness to participate in the working group, and was finalized in April 202. The list of the members has changed. Now we are cooperating as a group of ten Regional Labour Offices: Białystok, Katowice, Kielce, Kraków, Łódź, Olsztyn, Poznań, Szczecin, Wałbrzych, Warszawa. The Regional Labour Office in Białystok undertook the Coordination of the working group. On 2 December of 202 Mr Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the Minister of Labour and Social Policy has assumed the honorary patronage over the model creation for the monitoring of young people s situation in the labour market. In 203 was signed the transnational partnership agreement by Bundesagentur fur Arbeit Regionaldirection.

4 Main purpose: Monitoring level: Period of analysis: Monitoring group: Providing information about the situation of young people in the labour market allowing to take steps to improve the situation of this group of people Region year Young people aged: Fields of activity covered by monitoring key The situation of young people in the labour market, so Employment and Unemployment context Economy Demography Education Family and living conditions Social activity

6 unemployment employment Employment rate of young people Average monthly gross salary in total Unemployment rate of young people (LFS) Share of long-term unemployed young people at the same age (registered unemployment)

7 education demography Total population growth calculated as the ratio of number of live births to deaths Migration balance determined as the number of registrations in relation to the number of de-registrations Early leavers from the educational system Vocational examination passing rate University graduates, stationery studies, per inhabitants

8 Social activity Family and living conditions Average monthly available disposable income per person in the household Risk of poverty after social transfers Proportion of people in households benefiting from the environmental social welfare in the total population Particitapation in voluntary activities of young people in the total number of the respondents in this age group Membership in organizations of young people in the total number of the respondents in this age group Participation in religious services and meetings of young people in the total number of respondents in this age group Participation in the last election of people aged years in the total number of the respondens in this age group

9 Economy Gross domestic product per inhabitant Enterpreneurship rate, calculated as the number of business entities per inhabitants Capital expenditure per inhabitant Production structure (share of financial and insurance, and handling real estate market, ie. the group of sections K, Lin WDB)

10 Demography NEGATIVE IMPACT Economy NO. Education NO. 2 Employment and Unemployment) Social activity NEGATIVE IMPACT Family and Living cond. NO.3

11 The division of regions into classes with respect to the situation of young people, aged 5-34, in the labour market in 20 zachodniopomorskie 3 pomorskie 3 kujawskopomorskie 4 warmińskomazurskie 2 podlaskie lubuskie wielkopolskie mazowieckie 0 4 łódzkie Klasy: dolnośląskie 5 I,0328 i więcej W R II <0,0000;,0328) ( t III <-,0328; 0,0000) - ) IV poniżej -,0328 opolskie 9 śląskie 2 6 świętokrzyskie małopolskie 7 5 lubelskie 8 podkarpackie 6

Demography Education Family and living conditions in 20 Social activity zachodniopomorskie 6 pomorskie 3 kujawskopomorskie 8 warmińskomazurskie 0 podlaskie 4 zachodniopomorskie 6 pomorskie 7

12 Demography Education Family and living conditions in 20 Social activity zachodniopomorskie 6 pomorskie 3 kujawskopomorskie 8 warmińskomazurskie 0 podlaskie 4 zachodniopomorskie 6 pomorskie 7 kujawskopomorskie 3 warmińskomazurskie 4 podlaskie 9 zachodniopomorskie 0 pomorskie 8 kujawskopomorskie warmińskomazurskie 5 podlaskie 6 zachodniopomorskie 4 pomorskie 5 kujawskopomorskie 2 warmińskomazurskie 6 podlaskie lubuskie wielkopolskie 7 4 dolnośląskie 5 opolskie Klasy: 2 I,0328 i więcej W R II <0,0000;,0328) ( t III <-,0328; 0,0000) - ) mazowieckie łódzkie 3 lubelskie święto- 5 krzyskie śląskie 6 podkarpackie małopolskie 9 2 lubuskie wielkopolskie 2 5 dolnośląskie 4 opolskie Klasy: 3 I,0328 i więcej W R II <0,0000;,0328) ( t III <-,0328; 0,0000) - ) IV poniżej -,0328 mazowieckie 8 łódzkie lubelskie święto- 2 krzyskie śląskie 5 0 podkarpackie małopolskie 6 lubuskie wielkopolskie 2 5 dolnośląskie 2 opolskie Klasy: 4 I,0328 i więcej W R II <0,0000;,0328) ( t III <-,0328; 0,0000) - ) IV poniżej -,0328 mazowieckie łódzkie 9 lubelskie święto- 6 krzyskie śląskie 4 3 podkarpackie małopolskie 3 7 Klasy: lubuskie 3 wielkopolskie dolnośląskie 8 I,0328 i więcej W R II <0,0000;,0328) ( t III <-,0328; 0,0000) - ) IV poniżej -, opolskie 6 łódzkie śląskie 9 5 mazowieckie świętokrzyskie małopolskie lubelskie 3 podkarpackie Economy zachodniopomorskie 5 pomorskie 4 kujawskopomorskie 0 warmińskomazurskie podlaskie 2 Klasy: lubuskie 6 wielkopolskie dolnośląskie 2 I,0328 i więcej W R II <0,0000;,0328) ( t III poniżej 0, ) 8 opolskie 3 łódzkie śląskie 3 7 mazowieckie świętokrzyskie małopolskie 9 6 lubelskie 4 podkarpackie 5

AGE GROUP 5-24 AGE GROUP 25-34 Demography NEGATIVE IMPACT Family and Living cond. NO. Demography NEGATIVE IMPACT Economy NO.

13 AGE GROUP 5-24 AGE GROUP Demography NEGATIVE IMPACT Family and Living cond. NO. Demography NEGATIVE IMPACT Economy NO. Employment and Unemployment) Economy NO. 2 Employment and Unemployment) Education NO. 2 Social activity NEGATIVE IMPACT Education NO. 3 Social activity NEGATIV E IMPACT Family and Living cond. NO.3

14 Conclusions It is important to monitor three separate age groups: 5-24 years, 25-34, and 5-34; On the one hand, we need to monitor the indicators used to build the model based on the soft modeling, on the other hand, we have prepared a special dashboard for monitoring the range of indicators in a dynamic perspectiove allowing the observation of changes in the values of other indicators, having additional informative value for monitoring the situation of young people in the labour market (we have prepared a special dashboard). The Model requires an annual update to provide information, which will support a regional policy significantly and at a regular rate. The good news is that the working group members were trained in the soft modeling so we have the knowledge of how to do it, and the bad - is problem of a lack of data, or difficulties with their availability. In summary, long-term cooperation between the labour offices has brought a unique product which is a model for monitoring the youth situation s in the labor market.

15 Welcome to discussion

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